(Bloomberg) -- Oil prices dropped as the dollar surged and investors awaited further signals from the OPEC+ alliance, which has been locked in a dispute over boosting output.
West Texas Intermediate futures fell as much as 3.1% in New York. The U.S. dollar rose to a three-month high and equities fell from all-time highs after a jobs report missed expectations. A strong dollar typically makes commodities priced in the currency less attractive to investors. Prices earlier swung between gains and losses as the ongoing dispute among OPEC+ members has threatened a global supply deficit.
“People are just wildly uncertain” what the OPEC+ stalemate means for the future of output, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp. “August is in question and the demand warrants more production.”
Oil prices have soared more than 50% so far this year with consumption returning and the previous OPEC+ production deal keeping a lid on output. But investors remain uncertain about both the future of the OPEC+ supply agreement as well as the demand recovery with the delta variant of Covid-19 continuing to plague reopening efforts.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is among banks that anticipates a deal will be found. OPEC+ is expected to eventually agree in the coming weeks to increase production by 400,000 barrels a day each month for the rest of 2021, it said in a note.
At the same time, the disagreement between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could invite producers to pump unilaterally, risking a free-for-all that could crash prices. There is potential for a price war, but all involved will try to avoid that, according to ING Group NV.
“What’s really complicating everything is that we’re gonna probably have to wait a couple more weeks of talks and negotiations,” said Moya.
Meanwhile, U.S. shale executives are locking in prices for the oil they plan to produce next year and protecting themselves against a potential market slump, people familiar with the trades said.
Saudi Aramco increased the official selling price for Arab Light by 80 cents a barrel to $2.70 above the regional benchmark for Asia. That’s the biggest month-on-month gain since January, and suggests the oil giant won’t boost supply next month.
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