NIO: Not Much To Hold It Back In 2023 And Onward

Seeking Alpha2023-02-06

SummaryNIO's deliveries were down 46 percent from December 2022 but were primarily from the Chinese New Year, not something related to the market.Concerns over Tesla's cutting prices are far overblown...

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塞北
2023-02-06
塞北
你以为的恰恰也是我以为的

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(NYSE: NIO) is primed for strong growth in 2023 and onward, as the company continues to position itself for long-term growth by expanding to overseas markets, improving and scaling of its proprietary battery-as-a-service (BaaS) program, and its ongoing strategy of designing new models that will compete at different price points in the EV market.While there could be some temporary hiccups going forward, such as the possibility of occasional lockdowns associated with COVID-19, or supply chain constraints that would hold back the full production potential of the EV maker, I see them being less of a factor in the quarters ahead and should result in NIO vastly outperforming in 2023 when measured against 2022.Even though the company only delivered 8,506 vehicles in January 2022, which was down 12 percent year-over-year, it followed a record number of vehicles delivered in December 2022, which came in at 15,815, up 50.8 percent year-over-year. The reason for the significant drop was from the Chinese New Year being celebrated in January in 2023, rather than mostly being celebrated during February in 2022.That, of course, needs to be considered in evaluating the company at this time. But in February 2023 it also needs to be taken into consideration when the numbers should easily beat last year's deliveries because of the Chinese New Year being in February of 2022.In this article we'll look at some of the recent developments in regard to NIO and why I continue to like the direction it's going in.The Tesla factorSome investors and commentators have pointed to the recent decision by Tesla (TSLA) to cut prices on its Model Y, which appears to be triggering more demand for the vehicles, as being a risk to NIO.But as it relates to its current product line, it's not a factor in the Chinese EV market, as NIO continues to compete in the premium segment of the market, while Tesla competes in the lower end of the EV sector.Later on, when NIO releases a model that directly competes with Tesla's Model Y, it could be a challenge for NIO if Tesla continues to keep prices down. Much of that depends upon how successful the lower prices are for generating demand for the Model Y, and if and when Tesla decides to boost the price in order to improve margin and earnings.In the near term I don't see the lower price being a factor in NIO's performance unless some potential buyers opt for a lower priced vehicle because of economic concerns in relationship to a recession hitting that is deeper and longer than most expect at this time.Even so, with the customer base NIO targets, it would probably have to be a hard and long recession if it were to have a significant impact on the performance of the company.New agreement with CATLNio and China-based Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL)recently enhanced their existing agreement by signing a new five-year cooperation agreement which, among other things, will focus on improving \"supply-demand coordination\" and accelerate NIO's overseas expansion.Other elements of the agreement include advancing \"technological cooperation in new brands, new projects and new markets,\" along with further developing \"the business model centering on long-life batteries.\"Some of the things in the agreement look to be solid concerning being of long-term value to NIO, but in the near term, the two things I particularly like are the acceleration of its overseas expansion and improving NIO's supply chain by building a more efficient system in connection with its battery supply.If the agreement helps mitigate some of the supply chain issues NIO has faced and help it scale quicker in Europe, it will be a strong growth catalyst in the quarters and years ahead.Share price movementSince June 1, 2020, when NIO was trading at a low of approximately $4.15 per share, it began an explosive run, leading to its all-time high of about $67.00 per share by June 11, 2021.That type of movement was obviously unsustainable, and the stock started to correct, falling to approximately $31.00 per share on May 10, 2021, before rebounding to about $55.00 per share on June 28, 2021, before beginning a prolonged downward spiral that it hasn't yet recovered from, even though it's trading $11.25 as I write, bouncing off its 52-week low of $8.375 on October 24, 2022.TradingViewIn my opinion, at the current price range NIO has been trading in, these are excellent entry points that I have no doubt will generate meaningful returns for shareholders.And for those that already are in at a much higher cost basis, it's a good time to add to a position as long as doesn't result in too big of an overall position in the company; we need to maintain discipline concerning position size. I have a cost basis higher than I would like, but I'm not going to break discipline and add more to the position, which would increase my risk if my thesis ends up being wrong.In my view, it's not a matter of if NIO recovers and resumes its upward growth trend, it's only a matter of when. An entry point where it's trading at now removes a lot of the downside risk from the stock.ConclusionI like where NIO is positioned at this time, because of it rolling out new models, expanding into Europe, and improving its batteries and battery swap service.Even though could be more temporary disruptions in the Chinese EV market from possible lockdowns and supply chain issues, it appears China is going to continue to open up and supply chain constraints are sustainably improving.With its new partnership with CATL, that should further mitigate some of its supply chain risks, as well as increase the pace of expansion into Europe.Taking into account Tesla's decision to cut prices on its Model Y shouldn't have much, if any impact on NIO in the near term, other than it possibly losing a limited amount sales if the recession hits and consumers decide to buy down because of economic uncertainties. Further out, once NIO releases its competitor to Tesla's Model Y, lower prices could be a factor in its performance if Tesla keeps prices low.Even if that's how it plays out, NIO, because it's expanding its line of models to compete at most price points of the EV market, will have limited exposure to Tesla's pricing strategy further down the road, when taking into consideration all the models it's going to release in the future.I believe the headwinds NIO is facing are all temporary, and as the economy and market improve, along with its supply chain, it's very well positioned for a prolonged run that I see as having a solid chance of driving strong returns for NIO shareholders.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":622503379,"gmtCreate":1675695924291,"gmtModify":1675699171771,"author":{"id":"3561597318814104","authorId":"3561597318814104","name":"塞北","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f1617ff2d07ebcbe9b6cd279805ef8","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561597318814104","authorIdStr":"3561597318814104"},"htmlText":"你以为的恰恰也是我以为的","listText":"你以为的恰恰也是我以为的","text":"你以为的恰恰也是我以为的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622503379","repostId":1135846084,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1135846084","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1675686956,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135846084?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-06 20:35","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"NIO: Not Much To Hold It Back In 2023 And Onward","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135846084","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNIO's deliveries were down 46 percent from December 2022 but were primarily from the Chinese ","content":"<div>\n<p>SummaryNIO's deliveries were down 46 percent from December 2022 but were primarily from the Chinese New Year, not something related to the market.Concerns over Tesla's cutting prices are far overblown...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4575546-nio-stock-not-much-to-hold-it-back-in-2023-and-onward\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: Not Much To Hold It Back In 2023 And Onward\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-06 20:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4575546-nio-stock-not-much-to-hold-it-back-in-2023-and-onward><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNIO's deliveries were down 46 percent from December 2022 but were primarily from the Chinese New Year, not something related to the market.Concerns over Tesla's cutting prices are far overblown...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4575546-nio-stock-not-much-to-hold-it-back-in-2023-and-onward\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","NIO":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4575546-nio-stock-not-much-to-hold-it-back-in-2023-and-onward","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135846084","content_text":"SummaryNIO's deliveries were down 46 percent from December 2022 but were primarily from the Chinese New Year, not something related to the market.Concerns over Tesla's cutting prices are far overblown, as NIO, at this time, primarily competes in the premium EV market, not the lower end.NIO and CATL recently enhanced their agreement with one another, including improving supply chain efficiency and supporting overseas expansion.NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) is primed for strong growth in 2023 and onward, as the company continues to position itself for long-term growth by expanding to overseas markets, improving and scaling of its proprietary battery-as-a-service (BaaS) program, and its ongoing strategy of designing new models that will compete at different price points in the EV market.While there could be some temporary hiccups going forward, such as the possibility of occasional lockdowns associated with COVID-19, or supply chain constraints that would hold back the full production potential of the EV maker, I see them being less of a factor in the quarters ahead and should result in NIO vastly outperforming in 2023 when measured against 2022.Even though the company only delivered 8,506 vehicles in January 2022, which was down 12 percent year-over-year, it followed a record number of vehicles delivered in December 2022, which came in at 15,815, up 50.8 percent year-over-year. The reason for the significant drop was from the Chinese New Year being celebrated in January in 2023, rather than mostly being celebrated during February in 2022.That, of course, needs to be considered in evaluating the company at this time. But in February 2023 it also needs to be taken into consideration when the numbers should easily beat last year's deliveries because of the Chinese New Year being in February of 2022.In this article we'll look at some of the recent developments in regard to NIO and why I continue to like the direction it's going in.The Tesla factorSome investors and commentators have pointed to the recent decision by Tesla (TSLA) to cut prices on its Model Y, which appears to be triggering more demand for the vehicles, as being a risk to NIO.But as it relates to its current product line, it's not a factor in the Chinese EV market, as NIO continues to compete in the premium segment of the market, while Tesla competes in the lower end of the EV sector.Later on, when NIO releases a model that directly competes with Tesla's Model Y, it could be a challenge for NIO if Tesla continues to keep prices down. Much of that depends upon how successful the lower prices are for generating demand for the Model Y, and if and when Tesla decides to boost the price in order to improve margin and earnings.In the near term I don't see the lower price being a factor in NIO's performance unless some potential buyers opt for a lower priced vehicle because of economic concerns in relationship to a recession hitting that is deeper and longer than most expect at this time.Even so, with the customer base NIO targets, it would probably have to be a hard and long recession if it were to have a significant impact on the performance of the company.New agreement with CATLNio and China-based Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL)recently enhanced their existing agreement by signing a new five-year cooperation agreement which, among other things, will focus on improving \"supply-demand coordination\" and accelerate NIO's overseas expansion.Other elements of the agreement include advancing \"technological cooperation in new brands, new projects and new markets,\" along with further developing \"the business model centering on long-life batteries.\"Some of the things in the agreement look to be solid concerning being of long-term value to NIO, but in the near term, the two things I particularly like are the acceleration of its overseas expansion and improving NIO's supply chain by building a more efficient system in connection with its battery supply.If the agreement helps mitigate some of the supply chain issues NIO has faced and help it scale quicker in Europe, it will be a strong growth catalyst in the quarters and years ahead.Share price movementSince June 1, 2020, when NIO was trading at a low of approximately $4.15 per share, it began an explosive run, leading to its all-time high of about $67.00 per share by June 11, 2021.That type of movement was obviously unsustainable, and the stock started to correct, falling to approximately $31.00 per share on May 10, 2021, before rebounding to about $55.00 per share on June 28, 2021, before beginning a prolonged downward spiral that it hasn't yet recovered from, even though it's trading $11.25 as I write, bouncing off its 52-week low of $8.375 on October 24, 2022.TradingViewIn my opinion, at the current price range NIO has been trading in, these are excellent entry points that I have no doubt will generate meaningful returns for shareholders.And for those that already are in at a much higher cost basis, it's a good time to add to a position as long as doesn't result in too big of an overall position in the company; we need to maintain discipline concerning position size. I have a cost basis higher than I would like, but I'm not going to break discipline and add more to the position, which would increase my risk if my thesis ends up being wrong.In my view, it's not a matter of if NIO recovers and resumes its upward growth trend, it's only a matter of when. An entry point where it's trading at now removes a lot of the downside risk from the stock.ConclusionI like where NIO is positioned at this time, because of it rolling out new models, expanding into Europe, and improving its batteries and battery swap service.Even though could be more temporary disruptions in the Chinese EV market from possible lockdowns and supply chain issues, it appears China is going to continue to open up and supply chain constraints are sustainably improving.With its new partnership with CATL, that should further mitigate some of its supply chain risks, as well as increase the pace of expansion into Europe.Taking into account Tesla's decision to cut prices on its Model Y shouldn't have much, if any impact on NIO in the near term, other than it possibly losing a limited amount sales if the recession hits and consumers decide to buy down because of economic uncertainties. Further out, once NIO releases its competitor to Tesla's Model Y, lower prices could be a factor in its performance if Tesla keeps prices low.Even if that's how it plays out, NIO, because it's expanding its line of models to compete at most price points of the EV market, will have limited exposure to Tesla's pricing strategy further down the road, when taking into consideration all the models it's going to release in the future.I believe the headwinds NIO is facing are all temporary, and as the economy and market improve, along with its supply chain, it's very well positioned for a prolonged run that I see as having a solid chance of driving strong returns for NIO shareholders.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09866":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"NIO.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.34.9","shortVersion":"4.34.9","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1135846084","isCrawlerRequest":true}