Roku shares have floundered in recent weeks as the stay-at-home trade unraveled. But a few analysts say the dip will prove temporary.
Benchmark analyst Daniel Kurnos wrote in a note on Monday that sentiment on Wall Street has been negative, to say the least, with Roku’s stock price (ticker: ROKU) cut in half from its one-year intraday high. Analysts have been taking a less upbeat view of Roku’s postpandemic prospects, but Kurnos also noted some tension ahead of a Dec. 9 deadline for Roku and Alphabet’s (GOOGL) YouTube to reach a deal to keep the app on the Roku platform.
Roku stock, which Kurnos rates at Buy, was down 1.7% to $231.28 on Monday. His target for the stock price is $525, which implies a gain of nearly127%, for those counting.
“We think this is an ideal setup for the stock, especially since our channel checks indicate a much healthier in-stock level of Roku TVs at both Walmart and Best Buy than feared, while we think a Google-Roku resolution could be in the offing even if a temporary blackout occurs,” Kurnos wrote.
While he thinks Roku could temporarily drop the YouTube app, he argued there is too much at stake for both parties not to find a compromise, possibly before the end of the year.
“Not only would this be a positive catalyst for the stock but it would also lessen the fears around a potential Roku-Amazon showdown in the future,” Kurnos wrote.
Roku sells devices that turn televisions into smart TVs, accessing the Roku platform via the internet. It has deals in place with apps, in some cases getting a cut of subscriptions and advertising dollars spent on its platform.
Kurnos likened the situation to the spring of 2020, when those betting against Roku stock argued the company would see increased competition and was losing leverage in its negotiations for streaming services. The company later reached deals with AT&T’s HBO Max and Comcast’s Peacock services.
“Roku has one of the most advanced, self-contained ecosystems within streaming, and thus we expect them to be a share gainer, with levers to pull by making additional options available only if participants utilize the OneView platform, for example,” he wrote, referring to Roku’s OneView ad-buying platform.
Also on Monday, Bank of America Securities analyst Ruplu Bhattacharya cut his price target to $360 from $400 but maintained a Buy rating. Near-term headwinds the company faces—think supply chain and logistics challenges and lower spending from advertisers in areas such as consumer packaged goods, car manufacturing, and restaurants—are transitory, he said.
Roku’s competitive advantages remain intact, Bhattacharya said.
“In the long-term, we expect Roku revenues to benefit from active account growth driven by geographic expansion into international markets, and increasing content,” Bhattacharya wrote. “In addition, Advertising revenues should continue to benefit from the shift of Ad spend from Linear TV to [over-the-top], as well as from Roku’s proprietary viewership data and OneView’s omni channel capabilities.”
D.A. Davidson analysts called Roku stock their top pick for the 2021 holiday season. They reiterated a Buy rating and $550 price target, saying supply-chain challenges could benefit Roku, in the sense that subscriptions to streaming-services such as Disney+, HBO Max, and Netflix could be popular gifts.
“We believe this could benefit Roku on multiple fronts,” they wrote.
They argued Roku’s strong position as a smart-TV operating-system provider could mean users who get streaming-service gift cards could sign up on the Roku platform, driving revenue to Roku. Plus, if streaming services want to steer potential gift givers to their own offerings, such firms might look to advertise on Roku’s platform, they said.
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