Gathering over Thanksgiving may have lulled many into feeling that the pandemic is over. Looking at the stock market today will shatter that illusion.
Concerns around a new, heavily-mutated variant of Covid-19 identified in South Africa have rocked investor confidence. Stocks are plunging around the world, oil prices are dropping, bond yields are sliding—even Bitcoin is feeling the heat. There is a broad reversion to frenzied, theme-based trading. Vaccine stocks and pandemic plays like Zoom are surging while airline stocks are falling.
What we are seeing is fear and uncertainty. Sell first, ask questions later. And low trading volumes globally due to the Thanksgiving holiday is likely exacerbating volatility.
What we are not seeing is markets intelligently pricing in the impact of this new development. Scientific experts have yet to draw conclusions about the mutation, known for now as B.1.1.529, and there are less than 100 confirmed cases.
That’s not to say fear is misplaced. Early indications are that B.1.1.529 is significantly different from other variants, and, truly, the worst case scenario is that it’s more deadly, contagious, and vaccine-resistant than what we’ve already faced.
But we don’t know that yet. Similar market shockwaves caused by the Delta variant over the summer eventually subsided. Though it led to a surge in cases around the world, modern science was able to tackle it and move on. Hopefully the same can be said of this variant.
But for now investors will have to put up with heightened uncertainty—the markets’ worst enemy.
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