Want to Be a Millionaire? 2 Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next Decade

Key Points

• Consumers will spend $7.4 trillion online by 2025, up 50% from $4.9 trillion in 2021.
• MercadoLibre is the largest online marketplace in Latin America.
• Shopify is the most popular e-commerce software vendor.

According to eMarketer, consumers will spend $4.9 trillion shopping online this year, and that figure is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 10.7% to reach $7.4 trillion by 2025. Even then, e-commerce will represent just 25% of total retail spending, leaving plenty of room for future growth. That creates a significant opportunity for investors.

With that in mind,MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI) and Shopify(NYSE:SHOP) have become key players in the e-commerce industry. Both businesses benefit from strong competitive positions, and I think both stocks could grow fourfold over the next decade, a pace that would turn $250,000 into $1 million.

Here's what you should know.

IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.

1. MercadoLibre

MercadoLibre is the largest e-commerce and fintech platform in Latin America. The company operates across 18 countries, and in each region its marketplace is the leader in terms of unique visitors and page views. To reinforce that advantage, it offers a number of value-added services to its merchants, including payment processing, financing, advertising, and logistics support.

The company's fintech platform, Mercado Pago, is of particular importance. A relatively small percentage of the Latin American population has access to bank accounts and debit cards, and Mercado Pago democratizes access to financial services, allowing consumers to fund purchases both online and offline. Mercado Pago allows MercadoLibre to monetize commerce more broadly, even when the transactions don't occur on its marketplace.

Collectively, MercadoLibre's scale and product portfolio create a powerful network effect. Merchants naturally gravitate toward the most popular marketplace, and consumers seek out the greatest product selection. In other words, each new merchant creates value for every consumer, and each new consumer creates value for every merchant. And the same dynamic applies to Mercado Pago.

That virtuous cycle has translated into strong sales growth.

DATA SOURCE: YCHARTS. TTM = TRAILING-12-MONTHS.

Also noteworthy: MercadoLibre is profitable on a GAAP basis, generating net income of $78.8 million over the last 12 months, up from a loss of $4.1 million in the previous year.

Internet penetration currently sits at 62% in Latin America, far lower than the 95% internet penetration in North America. As that number trends upward in the coming years, e-commerce and digital payments should become increasingly popular with consumers, and MercadoLibre's strong competitive position means it should be a major beneficiary.

Here's the bottom line: Despite its strong financial performance and massive market opportunity, MercadoLibre is still just a $62 billion business. But if the company can maintain its competitive edge, it's easy to imagine MercadoLibre as a $248 billion company a decade from now. In fact, I think this stock could grow tenfold over the next 10 to 15 years.

2. Shopify

Shopify takes a slightly different approach. Its software helps merchants build their own custom websites, and it syncs sales across physical and digital storefronts, making it easy to manage an omnichannel business. Shopify also provides value-added services like payment processing, shipping, and financing, as well as tools for money management and marketing.

In short, Shopify helps businesses build their own brands and forge lasting relationships with customers. And the company's comprehensive portfolio of software and services makes its platform very sticky, which has translated into strong demand. In fact, Shopify is the most popular e-commerce software in the world, powering approximately 27% of online storefronts.

To reinforce that advantage, Shopify launched the Shop mobile app last year, a product designed to drive buyer engagement and repeat purchases. Specifically, the Shop app allows consumers to find and follow new brands, receive relevant product recommendations, and track orders. The app is now available in 17 different countries.

Collectively, Shopify's ambitious growth strategy and strong competitive position have powered an impressive top-line performance over the past year.

DATA SOURCE: YCHARTS. TTM = TRAILING-12-MONTHS.

Like MercadoLibre, Shopify is profitable on a GAAP basis. The company generated $3.4 billion in net income over the past 12 months. And while the vast majority of that came from unrealized gains on investments,adjusted net income (which excludes those gains) was still $840.4 million, up 145% from the prior year.

Going forward, Shopify is well positioned to maintain that momentum. The company puts its addressable market at $153 billion,, and management is executing on a smart growth strategy. I think those tailwinds could transform this $172 billion business into a $688 billion enterprise over the next decade, a pace that would produce fourfold returns for shareholders.