Weekly unemployment claims filed last week likely fell to the lowest level since November, as momentum in the labor market's recovery slowly but steadily increasedin tandem with improving COVID-19 trends.
The Department of Labor is slated to release its weekly report on new jobless claims Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:
Initial jobless claims, week ended February 13:773,000 expected vs. 793,000 during prior week
Continuing claims, week ended February 6:4.4 million expected vs. 4.545 million during prior week
At 773,000, the expected number of new claims last week would mark the lowest level in nearly two months and push claims below 800,000 for back-to-back weeks. Still, new weekly claims remain multiples above their levels from before the pandemic, when claims were coming in at an average of just over 200,000 per week.
"The message from the jobless claims data is consistent with a labor market that is slowly recovering but remains week," Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, said in a note. "Government aid is set to expire in mid-March, highlighting the need for the next phase of support, which the Biden administration hopes will be on a faster track to passage now that the impeachment trial has ended."
Falling COVID-19 case counts along with additional government stimulus have helped buoy consumer spending andimprovements in the labor market.On Wednesday, new data showed thatretail sales rose at the fastest pacein seven months in January, aided by additional unemployment benefits and direct checks to consumers. The increase in consumption and in hiring is expected to pick up even further as increasing vaccinations allow a greater number of businesses and services to resume.
"An improved near-term outlook for the pandemic, with new cases and hospitalizations both slowing, should be positive for leisure and hospitality," Nomura Chief Economist Lewis Alexander wrote in a recent note. "However, downside risks persist."
The March cliff for federal unemployment benefits remains one such concern, with the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs both scheduled to lapse in less than a month. More than 13 million Americans were claimants on either of these programs as of mid-January, comprising the majority of the 20.4 million Americans claiming benefits across all programs. However,Democratic lawmakers have been pushing to pass another robust virus relief packagebefore mid-March to avoid the expiration of benefits.
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