The strongest consumer stock backdrop in decades may be around the corner and there are plenty of stocks well positioned to benefit, according to Jefferies analysts.
A surge in personal income, alongside the reopening of the economy will “unleash substantial pent-up demand” in service sector consumption, said chief economist Aneta Markowska in a note on Sunday. She projected personal consumption expenditure (PCE)—a measure of consumer spending—to grow 7% this year and 4.1% in 2022. That assumes average PCE growth of more than 4% for eight consecutive quarters for the time since the 1990s.Stimulus and pent-up demandwould indicate strong spending at the high and low ends, she added.
Jefferies analysts covering a number of sectors used Markowska’s estimates to pick stocks most exposed to such a surge in consumption.
Equity analyst Brent Thill said ride-sharing companyLyftwas one of his top reopening plays for 2021, as people return to bars, restaurants and other hospitality venues. He noted that Lyft shifted focus to its cost structure during the Covid-19 pandemic, which should “produce outsized leverage” as revenues rebound. He projected a return to pre-pandemic revenue levels by the fourth quarter, rating the stock a buy with a target price of $75 and an upside target of $85.
Thill also said online travel names would be among the biggest beneficiaries of the accelerating vaccine rollout and a subsequent travel rebound, pickingAirbnband Booking. He gave Airbnb a buy rating, with a target price of $210 and upside target price of $250, while Booking had a hold rating with an upside target of $2,700.
When it comes to airlines, one of the hardest-hit sectors throughout the pandemic, equity analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu saidSouthwest Airlineswas best placed to benefit from pent-up demand in the second half of the year. She said domestic travel restrictions were likely to be lifted before international restrictions, giving the airline an advantage, adding that it was set to “aggressively take market share” from its peers. She rated the stock a buy with an upside target of $80, compared with Friday’s closing price of $56.92.
In the restaurants and food service sector, analysts Andy Barish and Alexander Slagle said the full-service segment was likely to benefit the most from the recovery, with pent-up demand for food outside of the home emerging as a powerful driver. They highlightedOutback SteakhouseownerBloomin’ Brandsand Chili’s ownerBrinkeras two buy-rated stocks to watch.
In the food sector itself, analyst Rob Dickerson said Beyond Meat,J&J Snack Foods and Lamb Westonhad the most potential upside due to its exposure to the food service channel, but he rated all three stocks ‘hold’.
The report also selects a host of retail names, including home improvement storesLowe’sandHome Depot,and major retailers such asKohl’sandWalmartas foot traffic picks up and spending increases.
Value-orientated names in the specialty retail industry, such asDollar General,BurlingtonandFive Belowwere also mentioned, whileCaesars EntertainmentandSix Flagswere preferred in the gaming and leisure sector.
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