The Epic Games lawsuit’s court ruling sent Apple stock tumbling on Friday – but Wall Street believes that there is not much to worry about. Here is why.
The damage to Apple stock(AAPL) caused by Friday’s App Store debacle has been contained. On a Monday in which stocks moved little, AAPL barely inched forward by midday – something that can be perceived as a positive by investors that feared further pressure from last week’s court ruling.
Probably supporting share price was a barrage of Wall Street reports, issued in the past couple of business days, that were overwhelmingly positive (neutral at worst) regarding the impact of the Epic Games battle on AAPL stock. Today, the Apple Maven dives deeper into the subject.
Wall Street’s thoughts
Not a single Wall Street analyst has substantially changed his or her mind on Apple stock since last Friday’s court decision on the App Store. This is what a scan through the most recent sell-side reports issued on AAPL in the last couple of days reveals. Ratings remained unchanged, as did price targets.
Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty offered some numbers. In a worst-case scenario in which “the ruling were to be applied globally and Apple were to lose all App Store revenue from the top 20 app developers globally, [the drag to financial performance] would equate to 2% of revenue and 5% of EPS”.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives has largely agreed with the opinion. Calling Apple's regulatory pressures "containable”, he sees the potential impact to EPS at no more than 4%. Between Morgan Stanley’s and Wedbush’s estimates, it looks like Friday’s 3% decline in Apple’s market cap was enough to properly reflect the P&L risks.
Jefferies’ Kyle McNealy sounded even more optimistic bycallingthe ruling “a win” for the Cupertino company and a “validation of the App Store business model”. While he believes that EPS could take a 4% hit, the analyst doubts that any impact would be felt before the June 2022 quarter.
The least bullish of Wall Street’s interpretations on Friday’s court decision seemed neutral to slightly cautious, at worst. Citi’s Jim Suvamentionedvaluation pressures as a possible outcome. Bank of America’s Wamsi Mohan saw the decision as a “net negative” but pointed out that “the final verdict could still be years away.”
The App Store drama could even become less of a topic of conversation soon enough, when Apple introduces the iPhone 13. JPMorgan’s Samik Chatterjee, for example, chose to focus on the product launch this week. He said that even iPhone 12 momentum and strong performance in iPad and Mac alone, let alone the iPhone 13, could be enough to push fiscal Q4 numbers beyond Apple’s conservative guidance.
The Apple Maven’s take
Maybe I am being influenced by so much optimism coming from Wall Street, but the worries over the App Store that I brought up two weeks ago may have been left behind. Apple stock took a noticeable hit on Friday. However, if analysts are right, the modest pullback may have been enough to price in the risks.
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