How Can Anyone Believe the Fed's Fantasyland Economic Projections?

The Fed's Dot Plot of interest rate projections is another exercise in silliness.

Dot Plot

TheDot Plot is a summary of where the FOMC members see future interest rates.

It's unanimous there will be no hikes this year. And by a 14-4 supermajority there will not be hikes in 2022.

In 2023, the expectations are 11-7. Two brave souls actually think the Fed will hike 4 times in 2023. [Note: a reader commented that foolish is a better word than brave. I agree.]

Longer Run Silliness

The longer run is a real hoot. A majority think rates will be 2.5% to 3.0%.

US National Debt is over $28 trillion. Click here to see a continually updatedDebt Clockas in every second.

Three Percent Interest On $28 Trillion

Three percent of $28 trillion is $840,000,000,000. That's $840 billion annually.

Some debt will be long-term financed lower, but $28 trillion isn't constant.

And what about future recessions?

These projections are nothing more than economic silliness.

Repeated Error

Finally, please note Fed hubris. TheFed is Making the Same Inflation Mistakeonce again.