Joe Biden’s100th day in officeis this Thursday, and the stock market is on pace to record its best start to a president’s term since that of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1945. TheS&P 500 indexis up nearly 9% since inauguration day, trailing FDR’s fourth term by about a percentage point.
Of course, there are a multitude of influences that determinewhat the stock market doesover any period, and the impact of any particular president or another is debatable. Continued easy monetary policy, the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, and a string of strong economic data and corporate earnings reports areamong the bullish forcesthat have underpinned the rally in recent months.
The S&P 500 index has climbed an average of 3.8% in the first 100 days of the 24 presidential terms since 1929, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That’s an annualized rate of about 14.5%—well ahead of the S&P 500’s 6% average annual rise since its inception.
The first few months of the year tend to be a better time for stock returns in general, as corporate management teams give guidance for the year ahead and investors price stocks on higher estimates. In a new presidential term, the administration’s to-be-realized plans might inspire a bit more investor optimism.
The S&P 500’s historical track record for the next 100 days of presidential terms is even better: The index has gained 4.8% on average in that time frame. Its returns in that period have been similar on average whether the S&P 500 rose or fell in the president’s first 100 days.
The S&P 500 has been up 14 of 24 first 100 days of a president’s term since its inception, including 9 of 13 Democrats and 5 of 11 Republicans. The index has risen an average of 7.3% under Democrats’ first 100 days and slipped 0.4% under Republicans’.
FDR died in April 1945, before the 100th day of his fourth term in office, when the S&P 500 had gained just over 10%. That rise pales in comparison with FDR’s first term in 1933, with the index up nearly 80% in 100 days. The market was rebounding from successive selloffs to start the 1930s, but it still wouldn’t regain its pre-Great Depression high until the early 1950s.
The S&P 500’s worst start to a presidential term also came during FDR’s presidency, in 1941. It lost 10.1% in the first 100 days of his third term.
The index is on a winning streak among new presidents. It rose 2.8% and 7.5% in the first 100 days of Barack Obama’s first and second terms, respectively, and 5.3% to start Donald Trump’s presidency in 2017.
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