巴克莱预计美联储将在2025年6月降息25个基点此前预测将降息两次

环球市场播报2025-01-13

　　巴克莱预计美联储将在2025年6月降息25个基点，而此前预测美联储将降息两次，分别在3月和6月。

　　上周公布的12月非农大超预期，华尔街大行纷纷削减降息押注。美国银行此前预计今年会有两次幅度25基点的降息，现在认为一次都不会有，接下来反而有可能加息。华尔街大行中对降息最乐观的花旗仍然预计会有五次幅度25基点的降息，但时间要从5月，而不是之前预期的1月开始。高盛预计，今年将有两次降息，而非三次，高盛预计美联储将在6月和12月分别降息25个基点。摩根大通称，鉴于最新的非农就业数据（强劲），预计美联储将在6月进行下一次降息，而此前的预测为3月。而摩根士丹利则认为，非农报告应会降低近期美联储降息的可能性；由于通胀前景更加有利，在3月降息可能性仍然较大。

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