Domino's Pizza's Near-Term Outlook Clouded by Delivery Growth, Franchise Challenges, RBC Says

Domino's Pizza (DPZ) faces near-term challenges ahead of its earnings release on Oct. 14, RBC said in a note on Thursday.

Analysts, including Logan Reich, said that key issues for investors ahead of the results include the strength of underlying US demand, growth from third-party delivery services, and whether management will revise guidance for international unit expansion due to ongoing challenges faced by master franchisees.

The analysts said that for the US business, they are forecasting a slight miss on same-store sales, expecting 3.7% growth versus the consensus estimate of 4.2%. They added that they believe the underlying demand in the US is likely to remain stable compared to Q2; however, the positive impact from the Stuffed Crust pizza launch, introduced on March 3, will likely be lower in Q3 than it was in Q2.

On the third-party delivery front, there could be some cannibalization between platforms, particularly from cost-conscious customers who are not loyal to a specific service. Management expects 50% of orders from DoorDash (DASH) to be incremental, compared to around two-thirds for Uber Eats (UBER), the analysts said.

The analysts said they expect softer growth internationally, especially in higher average unit volume markets such as the UK, Australia, and New Zealand. These regions may underperform on both same-store sales and unit expansion.

The analysts added they project international same-store sales growth at 1.5%, slightly below the Street's estimate of 1.9%, and project 430 net new store additions in H2 2025, versus consensus at 487.

RBC has a sector perform rating and a $500 price target on Domino's Pizza.

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