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2021-05-05

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Sharing A Ride To The Reopening: Uber, Lyft Earnings Could Offer Hints To Life Beyond The Pandemic<blockquote>共享重新开放之旅：优步、Lyft的盈利可能为大流行后的生活提供线索</blockquote>

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2021-05-05
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The S&P 5","content":"After racing into earnings season, stocks have basically treaded water the last two weeks. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;(SPX) finished Monday less than 1% changed from mid-April when reporting season began.<blockquote>在进入财报季后，过去两周股市基本上停滞不前。The标普500指数(SPX)周一收盘较4月中旬财报季开始时变化不到1%。</blockquote> That’s despite an amazing Q1 earnings performance by S&amp;P 500 companies so far, with average earnings per share up more than 40%. With more than half of the reporting season done, 86% of companies have beaten earnings expectations, according to FactSet.<blockquote>尽管迄今为止标普500公司第一季度的盈利表现令人惊叹，平均每股收益增长了40%以上。FactSet的数据显示，财报季已过半，86%的公司盈利超出预期。</blockquote> When you accompany that with the lack of gains in major indices, you have to ask yourself how much of the good news was priced in. We were already at all-time highs ahead of the reporting period, so can the reality match the expectations?<blockquote>当你伴随着主要指数缺乏涨幅时，你必须问自己有多少好消息被定价了。我们在报告期之前就已经处于历史高点，那么现实能否与预期相匹配呢？</blockquote> Anyway, this stall in forward progress isn’t something to be overly concerned about. We’re heading into summer, which tends to be a time of lighter volumes, but lighter volumes can mean good things as well.<blockquote>无论如何，这种前进的停滞并不是什么值得过度担心的事情。我们即将进入夏季，这往往是一个成交量较少的时期，但成交量较少也可能意味着好事。</blockquote> For the next act, investors might have their eyes peeled on ride-sharing companies&nbsp;Lyft Technologies Inc.LYFT 4.39%and&nbsp;UberUBER 3.03%today and tomorrow to see if they can provide insight into reopening progress.<blockquote>对于下一步行动，投资者可能会密切关注拼车公司Lyft技术公司。LYFT 4.39%和优步UBER今天和明天将上涨3.03%，看看他们是否可以提供有关重新开放进展的见解。</blockquote> Solid Reporting Season Continues With CVS, Pfizer<blockquote>CVS和辉瑞继续稳健的报告季</blockquote> Before that, investors got another set of solid earnings news this morning as&nbsp;CVSCVS 3%and&nbsp;PfizerPFE 0.45%outran consensus expectations and raised guidance. PFE raised revenue guidance by 18% for the year, which is pretty impressive. Some of that is related to their Covid vaccine, but not all of it.<blockquote>在此之前，投资者今天上午又收到了一组可靠的盈利消息，CVSCVS 3%和辉瑞PFE 0.45%超出普遍预期并上调指引。PFE将今年的收入指引上调了18%，这相当令人印象深刻。其中一些与他们的Covid疫苗有关，但不是全部。</blockquote> Technology—particularly the so-called “FAANG” sector of that group—appeared to be taking the worst of it early Tuesday. The Tech sector is by far the worst SPX performer over the last week even though earnings from most of the “mega-caps” in that sector looked solid. At the same time, cyclical sectors—think Financials and Energy—have led gains recently. It’s more along the lines of what we were seeing earlier this year before Tech made a move going into earnings season.<blockquote>周二早些时候，科技——尤其是该集团中所谓的“FAANG”部门——似乎受到了最严重的影响。科技板块是上周SPX表现最差的板块，尽管该板块大多数“大型股”的盈利看起来稳健。与此同时，周期性板块——比如金融和能源——最近领涨。这更符合我们今年早些时候在科技进入财报季之前所看到的情况。</blockquote> Call it what you want: “Consolidation” is a word some people are using to describe this lack of direction in the markets amid a slowing news flow. The directionless trading appears to be extending into Tuesday, with major indices losing ground ahead of the opening bell and the closely-watched 10-year Treasury yield back at 1.6%, right in the middle of its recent range.<blockquote>看涨期权它是你想要的：一些人用“整合”这个词来描述在新闻流放缓的情况下市场缺乏方向。无方向交易似乎将延续到周二，主要股指在开盘前下跌，备受关注的10年期国债收益率回到1.6%，处于近期区间的中间位置。</blockquote> Still, commodity prices—and not just&nbsp;the semiconductors we’ve talked about recently—are on the rise, with the&nbsp;Bloomberg Commodity Index&nbsp;($BCOM) among those commodity benchmarks sitting on multi-year highs. Even if long-dated Treasury yields remain muted and the Fed sticks to its narrative of “transitory inflation” (see more below), commodities seem to be factoring in higher prices.<blockquote>尽管如此，大宗商品价格——不仅仅是我们最近谈到的半导体——仍在上涨，随着彭博商品指数($BCOM)是处于多年高点的大宗商品基准之一。即使长期国债收益率保持低迷，美联储坚持其“暂时性通胀”的说法（见下文），大宗商品似乎也在考虑价格上涨。</blockquote> Volatility is up slightly, too, not surprising considering the pressure on stocks. Keep an eye on the 20 level for the&nbsp;Cboe&nbsp;Volatility&nbsp;Index&nbsp;(VIX). We’re only slightly below that benchmark figure, and looking at forward contracts, the message looks like we’ll continue to bounce around for a while.<blockquote>考虑到股市面临的压力，波动性也略有上升，这并不奇怪。密切关注20级芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（波动率指数）。我们仅略低于该基准数字，从远期合约来看，我们似乎将继续反弹一段时间。</blockquote> Earnings Season About To Catch A&nbsp;Ride<blockquote>财报季即将到来</blockquote> It’s kind of fitting that “reopening” stocks led the way Monday in a week that features&nbsp;earnings fromUber Technologies Inc.UBER 3.03%andLyftLYFT 4.39%,&nbsp;two companies that would likely stand to benefit if people are getting out more. LYFT is expected to report today after the close and UBER is up to bat tomorrow after the close.<blockquote>周一，“重新开放”股票在一周的收益中领先，这是很合适的优步技术公司。优步3.03%和LyftLYFT 4.39%，如果人们更多地外出，这两家公司可能会受益。LYFT预计将于今天收盘后发布报告，UBER将于明天收盘后发布报告。</blockquote> Both companies are apparently having some trouble finding drivers to meet all the new demand, kind of a good problem to have. However, it could be costly, with both having to spend more on driver incentives. There’s also a regulatory headwind after the U.S. Labor secretary told Reuters that many gig economy workers should be treated as employees.<blockquote>两家公司显然都很难找到满足所有新需求的司机，这是一个很好的问题。然而，这可能代价高昂，双方都必须在司机激励上花费更多。美国劳工部长告诉路透社，许多零工经济工人应该被视为雇员，这也带来了监管阻力。</blockquote> If that ends up happening nationwide and UBER and LYFT have to treat drivers as employees instead of independent contractors, it seems that would substantially increase costs for these companies. However, that’s far from settled yet.<blockquote>如果这种情况最终在全国范围内发生，优步和LYFT不得不将司机视为员工而不是独立承包商，这似乎将大幅增加这些公司的成本。然而，这还远未解决。</blockquote> In the meantime, what investors probably want to know is whether LYFT and UBER were able to continue cutting their losses in Q1 after shrinking their annual net losses last time out. They’re still going to likely face tough comparisons on revenue because a lot of the 2020 quarter they’re comparing to took place before the pandemic hit last March.<blockquote>与此同时，投资者可能想知道的是，LYFT和优步在上次缩小年度净亏损后，第一季度是否能够继续削减亏损。他们仍可能面临艰难的收入比较，因为他们所比较的2020年季度的大部分时间都发生在去年3月疫情爆发之前。</blockquote> In contrast, other big earnings reports over the coming days include some of the companies many investors embraced big time last year when the pandemic hit. We’re talking&nbsp;PelotonPTON 0.71%,&nbsp;PaypalPYPL 3.11%,&nbsp;ModernaMRNA 4.59%,&nbsp;SquareSQ 2.71%, and&nbsp;Roku Inc.ROKU 3.81%.&nbsp; A lot of these companies had an amazing performance in 2020, but might have pulled forward years of demand. Now, as the economy reopens, they face pressure to explain how they’re going to drive toward profits and how they can keep the excitement going.<blockquote>相比之下，未来几天的其他大型收益报告包括去年疫情爆发时许多投资者大力支持的一些公司。我们在说话佩洛顿PTON 0.71%，PaypalPYPL 3.11%,现代MRNA 4.59%，平方平方2.71%，以及Roku公司。ROKU 3.81%。其中许多公司在2020年都取得了惊人的业绩，但可能会提前数年的需求。现在，随着经济重新开放，他们面临着解释如何实现利润以及如何保持兴奋的压力。</blockquote> It’s not like these are necessarily stocks you can consider flash in the pans. People who got used to exercising at home and invested in a PTON machine probably aren’t going to abandon it for the gym right away, or necessarily at all. And MRNA’s vaccine technology has possibilities beyond the success of their Covid vaccine, analysts recently told Barron’s. PYPL and SQ’s technology was already in demand before Covid, though the pandemic might have given them a boost.<blockquote>这些股票并不一定是你可以认为昙花一现的股票。习惯于在家锻炼并购买PTON机器的人可能不会马上放弃它去健身房，或者根本不会。分析师最近告诉《巴伦周刊》，MRNA的疫苗技术还有超越新冠疫苗成功的可能性。PYPL和SQ的技术在新冠疫情之前就已经很受欢迎了，尽管疫情可能会给它们带来推动。</blockquote> Fresh Earnings Could Cast Light On Supply Shortages, Costs<blockquote>新的收益可能会揭示供应短缺和成本</blockquote> Getting back from the newest models to a veteran,&nbsp;General MotorsGM 2.48%reports tomorrow. Like other car companies, GM’s earnings call could offer an interesting perspective on the semiconductor chip shortage.&nbsp;FordF 1.98%said last week the problem is taking a greater toll on its business than previously expected and could put pressure on its operating results in the second half of the year. For more on how the chip shortage is affecting car makers, see below.<blockquote>从最新款回到老手，通用汽车通用汽车2.48%明天报告。与其他汽车公司一样，通用汽车的盈利看涨期权可以为半导体芯片短缺提供一个有趣的视角。福特F 1.98%上周表示，该问题对其业务造成的影响超出了此前的预期，并可能给其下半年的经营业绩带来压力。有关芯片短缺如何影响汽车制造商的更多信息，请参见下文。</blockquote> Some of the supply shortages in chips and beyond might be playing out in the economic data this week. ISM manufacturing for April released on Monday came in below Wall Street’s expectations at 60.7%, down from 64.7% a month earlier. Supply chain disruptions and higher raw material costs might have played into the lower number.<blockquote>芯片及其他领域的一些供应短缺可能会在本周的经济数据中显现出来。周一公布的4月份ISM制造业增长率为60.7%，低于华尔街预期，低于一个月前的64.7%。供应链中断和原材料成本上升可能是导致数字下降的原因。</blockquote> The Fed has been saying inflation will be transitory, but we’ll see if they end up being right. A couple of weeks ago&nbsp;IntelINTC 1.77%said the chip shortage could last two years. President Biden’s infrastructure plan envisions more domestic production of these products, but you can’t turn on the assembly lines overnight, and there’s still no guarantee the entire bill as it exists now will become reality.<blockquote>美联储一直表示通胀将是暂时的，但我们将看看他们最终是否正确。几周前英特尔INTC 1.77%表示，芯片短缺可能会持续两年。拜登总统的基础设施计划设想在国内生产更多这些产品，但你不能在一夜之间打开装配线，而且仍然不能保证现在存在的整个法案会成为现实。</blockquote> In other data to watch, the ISM non-manufacturing index for April is due Wednesday. Consensus on Wall Street is for a headline figure of 65.0%, up from 63.7% in March, according to research firm Briefing.com.<blockquote>在其他值得关注的数据中，4月份ISM非制造业指数将于周三公布。根据研究公司Briefing.com的数据，华尔街的共识是总体数字为65.0%，高于3月份的63.7%。</blockquote> Of course, the biggest report this week is Friday’s non-farm payrolls, where analysts expect a cool million new jobs created in April vs. 916,000 in March. We’ll dig into that a little more tomorrow, with some things worth watching in the report beyond that headline number. Stay tuned.<blockquote>当然，本周最大的报告是周五的非农就业数据，分析师预计4月份将新增100万个就业岗位，而3月份为91.6万个。明天我们将对此进行更深入的探讨，除了标题数字之外，报告中还有一些值得关注的内容。敬请期待。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da99b665ba0fa3e07d7fc1e25ce3dd62\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"412\"><blockquote></blockquote> CHART OF THE DAY:THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...A few weeks ago we ran this same chart of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) vs. its 50-day moving average (blue line). Not much has changed since then. The index still holds a firm premium to the 50-day, and hasn’t come close to testing it in over a month. The 50-day is now just above 4000, and every time this year the index tested it, the result was a solid rebound. The question is, if the market sells off a bit and tests this important technical area, will it hold again? If not, more technical selling could break out, changing this long-running pattern. Data Source: S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.Chart source: The&nbsp;thinkorswim® platform.&nbsp;For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.<blockquote>每日图表：事情变化越多...几周前，我们运行了标普500指数（SPX烛台）与其50天移动平均线（蓝线）的相同图表。从那以后没有太大变化。该指数仍较50日指数保持稳定溢价，并且已经一个多月没有接近测试该指数了。50日线现在略高于4000点，今年该指数每次测试它，结果都是强劲反弹。问题是，如果市场稍微抛售并测试这个重要的技术区域，它会再次站稳吗？否则，更多的技术性抛售可能会爆发，改变这种长期模式。数据来源：标准普尔道琼斯指数。图表来源：thinkorswim®平台。仅用于说明目的。过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。</blockquote> Horse’s Mouth Time:&nbsp;Something that might be worth paying attention to today is the Wall Street Journal’s CEO summit, which starts this morning and features interviews with&nbsp;JP Morgan ChaseJPM 0.04%CEO Jamie Dimon,&nbsp;MerckMRK 0.03%Chairman and CEO Kenneth C. Frazier, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.<blockquote>马嘴时间：今天可能值得关注的是《华尔街日报》的首席执行官峰会，该峰会将于今天上午开始，其中包括对摩根大通摩根大通0.04%首席执行官杰米·戴蒙，默克MRK 0.03%董事长兼首席执行官肯尼思·弗雷泽(Kenneth C.Frazier)和财政部长珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)。</blockquote> Dimon’s going to be asked about the economic rebound and the markets, the WSJ said, but it might be interesting to see if they ask him any questions about the banking industry now that Q1 earnings are in the rearview mirror. Some analysts note that activity on Wall Street—especially on the&nbsp;Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)&nbsp;front—has slowed down slightly in Q2, and wonder if that means the sizzling investment banking revenues enjoyed by the industry in Q1 might not be as easy to scoop up this quarter. SPACs raised $82 billion last year, the WSJ reported.<blockquote>《华尔街日报》表示，戴蒙将被问及有关经济反弹和市场的问题，但既然第一季度收益已成为过去，看看他们是否会向他提出任何有关银行业的问题可能会很有趣。一些分析师指出，华尔街的活动——尤其是特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)方面——在第二季度略有放缓，并想知道这是否意味着该行业在第一季度享有的炙手可热的投资银行收入可能不会那么容易本季度上涨。据《华尔街日报》报道，SPAC去年筹集了820亿美元。</blockquote> Earnings Come Down The Stretch With A&nbsp;Lead:&nbsp;We’ve heard a lot of analysts say what a great earnings season it’s been, but it’s another thing to see the actual number plugged in. How does this sound? 45.8%. That’s the average S&amp;P 500 earnings growth with 60% of companies now reporting, according to research firm Factset. If it remains there or higher for the rest of the way, it will be the best earnings growth for a quarter since the economy was emerging from the financial crisis in early 2010. It also leaves analysts’ average estimate of 24% earnings growth going into the reporting period completely in the dust. In fact, 86% of companies are beating analyst estimates on earnings, and 78% on revenue, Factset says.<blockquote>盈利处于领先地位：我们听到很多分析师说这是一个多么棒的财报季，但看到实际数字是另一回事。这听起来怎么样？45.8%.根据研究公司Factset的数据，这是标普500目前60%的公司报告的平均盈利增长。如果该指数在剩余时间内保持在该水平或更高，这将是自2010年初经济摆脱金融危机以来最好的季度盈利增长。这也让分析师对报告期内盈利增长24%的平均预期完全落空。Factset表示，事实上，86%的公司盈利超出了分析师预期，78%的公司收入超出了分析师预期。</blockquote> This all sounds good, but you’ll hear some naysayers tell you most of the strength in earnings was built into stock prices going in. Actually, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, and you can see that if you follow the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&amp;P 500. It’s now at 22, by Factset’s reckoning, and that’s down from nearly 24 at the start of 2021. Over the same year-to-date time frame, the S&amp;P Equal Weight 500 jumped 16.2%, research firm CFRA noted Monday (equal weight means each of the 500 companies in the index is given a fixed weight instead of the index being weighted by market cap). In other words, stocks have risen while valuations fell, which is a neat trick.<blockquote>这一切听起来都不错，但你会听到一些反对者告诉你，盈利的大部分优势都是由股价的上涨决定的。实际上，这有点夸张，如果你遵循标普500的12个月远期市盈率，你就可以看到这一点。根据Factset的计算，目前为22，低于2021年初的近24。研究公司CFRA周一指出，在今年迄今为止的同一时间范围内，标准普尔等权重500指数上涨了16.2%（等权重意味着指数中的500家公司中的每家都被赋予固定权重，而不是指数按市值加权）。换句话说，股票上涨，而估值下跌，这是一个巧妙的伎俩。</blockquote> No Chips, No Ride:&nbsp;Have you driven by a car dealership lately? If so, you may have noticed that everything seems more or less in place, except for the cars, that is—they’re missing. As we reported earlier this year, the semiconductor sector is undergoing a massive worldwide shortage. For car buyers, this may mean longer waits and higher prices. And by the way, new cars aren’t the only ones impacted by the shortage. The average price of used cars jumped 12.5% over the last year, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association.<blockquote>没有筹码，就没有游乐设施：你最近开车经过汽车经销商吗？如果是这样，您可能已经注意到，除了汽车之外，一切似乎都或多或少就位了，也就是说，它们不见了。正如我们今年早些时候报道的那样，半导体行业正在经历全球范围内的大规模短缺。对于购车者来说，这可能意味着更长的等待时间和更高的价格。顺便说一句，新车并不是唯一受到短缺影响的汽车。根据全国汽车经销商协会的数据，二手车平均价格比去年上涨了12.5%。</blockquote> For automakers, however, this means wider sales, some even seeing record profits as vehicles are sold before they make it to the sales lot. Investors might want to keep an eye on companies like&nbsp;General MotorsGM 2.48%,&nbsp;FordF 1.98%, and other manufacturers to see how the chip shortage may be impacting their bottom lines. Might the shortage in rides be a ticket to ride the chip shortage to the upside?<blockquote>然而，对于汽车制造商来说，这意味着更广泛的销售，有些人甚至看到了创纪录的利润，因为车辆在进入销售现场之前就被售出。投资者可能需要关注以下公司通用汽车通用汽车2.48%，福特F 1.98%，以及其他制造商，了解芯片短缺可能如何影响他们的利润。游乐设施的短缺可能是利用芯片短缺的门票吗？</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sharing A Ride To The Reopening: Uber, Lyft Earnings Could Offer Hints To Life Beyond The Pandemic<blockquote>共享重新开放之旅：优步、Lyft的盈利可能为大流行后的生活提供线索</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSharing A Ride To The Reopening: Uber, Lyft Earnings Could Offer Hints To Life Beyond The Pandemic<blockquote>共享重新开放之旅：优步、Lyft的盈利可能为大流行后的生活提供线索</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nBenzinga \n2021-05-04 22:54\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAfter racing into earnings season, stocks have basically treaded water the last two weeks. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;(SPX) finished Monday less than 1% changed from mid-April when reporting season began.<blockquote>在进入财报季后，过去两周股市基本上停滞不前。The标普500指数(SPX)周一收盘较4月中旬财报季开始时变化不到1%。</blockquote> That’s despite an amazing Q1 earnings performance by S&amp;P 500 companies so far, with average earnings per share up more than 40%. With more than half of the reporting season done, 86% of companies have beaten earnings expectations, according to FactSet.<blockquote>尽管迄今为止标普500公司第一季度的盈利表现令人惊叹，平均每股收益增长了40%以上。FactSet的数据显示，财报季已过半，86%的公司盈利超出预期。</blockquote> When you accompany that with the lack of gains in major indices, you have to ask yourself how much of the good news was priced in. We were already at all-time highs ahead of the reporting period, so can the reality match the expectations?<blockquote>当你伴随着主要指数缺乏涨幅时，你必须问自己有多少好消息被定价了。我们在报告期之前就已经处于历史高点，那么现实能否与预期相匹配呢？</blockquote> Anyway, this stall in forward progress isn’t something to be overly concerned about. We’re heading into summer, which tends to be a time of lighter volumes, but lighter volumes can mean good things as well.<blockquote>无论如何，这种前进的停滞并不是什么值得过度担心的事情。我们即将进入夏季，这往往是一个成交量较少的时期，但成交量较少也可能意味着好事。</blockquote> For the next act, investors might have their eyes peeled on ride-sharing companies&nbsp;Lyft Technologies Inc.LYFT 4.39%and&nbsp;UberUBER 3.03%today and tomorrow to see if they can provide insight into reopening progress.<blockquote>对于下一步行动，投资者可能会密切关注拼车公司Lyft技术公司。LYFT 4.39%和优步UBER今天和明天将上涨3.03%，看看他们是否可以提供有关重新开放进展的见解。</blockquote> Solid Reporting Season Continues With CVS, Pfizer<blockquote>CVS和辉瑞继续稳健的报告季</blockquote> Before that, investors got another set of solid earnings news this morning as&nbsp;CVSCVS 3%and&nbsp;PfizerPFE 0.45%outran consensus expectations and raised guidance. PFE raised revenue guidance by 18% for the year, which is pretty impressive. Some of that is related to their Covid vaccine, but not all of it.<blockquote>在此之前，投资者今天上午又收到了一组可靠的盈利消息，CVSCVS 3%和辉瑞PFE 0.45%超出普遍预期并上调指引。PFE将今年的收入指引上调了18%，这相当令人印象深刻。其中一些与他们的Covid疫苗有关，但不是全部。</blockquote> Technology—particularly the so-called “FAANG” sector of that group—appeared to be taking the worst of it early Tuesday. The Tech sector is by far the worst SPX performer over the last week even though earnings from most of the “mega-caps” in that sector looked solid. At the same time, cyclical sectors—think Financials and Energy—have led gains recently. It’s more along the lines of what we were seeing earlier this year before Tech made a move going into earnings season.<blockquote>周二早些时候，科技——尤其是该集团中所谓的“FAANG”部门——似乎受到了最严重的影响。科技板块是上周SPX表现最差的板块，尽管该板块大多数“大型股”的盈利看起来稳健。与此同时，周期性板块——比如金融和能源——最近领涨。这更符合我们今年早些时候在科技进入财报季之前所看到的情况。</blockquote> Call it what you want: “Consolidation” is a word some people are using to describe this lack of direction in the markets amid a slowing news flow. The directionless trading appears to be extending into Tuesday, with major indices losing ground ahead of the opening bell and the closely-watched 10-year Treasury yield back at 1.6%, right in the middle of its recent range.<blockquote>看涨期权它是你想要的：一些人用“整合”这个词来描述在新闻流放缓的情况下市场缺乏方向。无方向交易似乎将延续到周二，主要股指在开盘前下跌，备受关注的10年期国债收益率回到1.6%，处于近期区间的中间位置。</blockquote> Still, commodity prices—and not just&nbsp;the semiconductors we’ve talked about recently—are on the rise, with the&nbsp;Bloomberg Commodity Index&nbsp;($BCOM) among those commodity benchmarks sitting on multi-year highs. Even if long-dated Treasury yields remain muted and the Fed sticks to its narrative of “transitory inflation” (see more below), commodities seem to be factoring in higher prices.<blockquote>尽管如此，大宗商品价格——不仅仅是我们最近谈到的半导体——仍在上涨，随着彭博商品指数($BCOM)是处于多年高点的大宗商品基准之一。即使长期国债收益率保持低迷，美联储坚持其“暂时性通胀”的说法（见下文），大宗商品似乎也在考虑价格上涨。</blockquote> Volatility is up slightly, too, not surprising considering the pressure on stocks. Keep an eye on the 20 level for the&nbsp;Cboe&nbsp;Volatility&nbsp;Index&nbsp;(VIX). We’re only slightly below that benchmark figure, and looking at forward contracts, the message looks like we’ll continue to bounce around for a while.<blockquote>考虑到股市面临的压力，波动性也略有上升，这并不奇怪。密切关注20级芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（波动率指数）。我们仅略低于该基准数字，从远期合约来看，我们似乎将继续反弹一段时间。</blockquote> Earnings Season About To Catch A&nbsp;Ride<blockquote>财报季即将到来</blockquote> It’s kind of fitting that “reopening” stocks led the way Monday in a week that features&nbsp;earnings fromUber Technologies Inc.UBER 3.03%andLyftLYFT 4.39%,&nbsp;two companies that would likely stand to benefit if people are getting out more. LYFT is expected to report today after the close and UBER is up to bat tomorrow after the close.<blockquote>周一，“重新开放”股票在一周的收益中领先，这是很合适的优步技术公司。优步3.03%和LyftLYFT 4.39%，如果人们更多地外出，这两家公司可能会受益。LYFT预计将于今天收盘后发布报告，UBER将于明天收盘后发布报告。</blockquote> Both companies are apparently having some trouble finding drivers to meet all the new demand, kind of a good problem to have. However, it could be costly, with both having to spend more on driver incentives. There’s also a regulatory headwind after the U.S. Labor secretary told Reuters that many gig economy workers should be treated as employees.<blockquote>两家公司显然都很难找到满足所有新需求的司机，这是一个很好的问题。然而，这可能代价高昂，双方都必须在司机激励上花费更多。美国劳工部长告诉路透社，许多零工经济工人应该被视为雇员，这也带来了监管阻力。</blockquote> If that ends up happening nationwide and UBER and LYFT have to treat drivers as employees instead of independent contractors, it seems that would substantially increase costs for these companies. However, that’s far from settled yet.<blockquote>如果这种情况最终在全国范围内发生，优步和LYFT不得不将司机视为员工而不是独立承包商，这似乎将大幅增加这些公司的成本。然而，这还远未解决。</blockquote> In the meantime, what investors probably want to know is whether LYFT and UBER were able to continue cutting their losses in Q1 after shrinking their annual net losses last time out. They’re still going to likely face tough comparisons on revenue because a lot of the 2020 quarter they’re comparing to took place before the pandemic hit last March.<blockquote>与此同时，投资者可能想知道的是，LYFT和优步在上次缩小年度净亏损后，第一季度是否能够继续削减亏损。他们仍可能面临艰难的收入比较，因为他们所比较的2020年季度的大部分时间都发生在去年3月疫情爆发之前。</blockquote> In contrast, other big earnings reports over the coming days include some of the companies many investors embraced big time last year when the pandemic hit. We’re talking&nbsp;PelotonPTON 0.71%,&nbsp;PaypalPYPL 3.11%,&nbsp;ModernaMRNA 4.59%,&nbsp;SquareSQ 2.71%, and&nbsp;Roku Inc.ROKU 3.81%.&nbsp; A lot of these companies had an amazing performance in 2020, but might have pulled forward years of demand. Now, as the economy reopens, they face pressure to explain how they’re going to drive toward profits and how they can keep the excitement going.<blockquote>相比之下，未来几天的其他大型收益报告包括去年疫情爆发时许多投资者大力支持的一些公司。我们在说话佩洛顿PTON 0.71%，PaypalPYPL 3.11%,现代MRNA 4.59%，平方平方2.71%，以及Roku公司。ROKU 3.81%。其中许多公司在2020年都取得了惊人的业绩，但可能会提前数年的需求。现在，随着经济重新开放，他们面临着解释如何实现利润以及如何保持兴奋的压力。</blockquote> It’s not like these are necessarily stocks you can consider flash in the pans. People who got used to exercising at home and invested in a PTON machine probably aren’t going to abandon it for the gym right away, or necessarily at all. And MRNA’s vaccine technology has possibilities beyond the success of their Covid vaccine, analysts recently told Barron’s. PYPL and SQ’s technology was already in demand before Covid, though the pandemic might have given them a boost.<blockquote>这些股票并不一定是你可以认为昙花一现的股票。习惯于在家锻炼并购买PTON机器的人可能不会马上放弃它去健身房，或者根本不会。分析师最近告诉《巴伦周刊》，MRNA的疫苗技术还有超越新冠疫苗成功的可能性。PYPL和SQ的技术在新冠疫情之前就已经很受欢迎了，尽管疫情可能会给它们带来推动。</blockquote> Fresh Earnings Could Cast Light On Supply Shortages, Costs<blockquote>新的收益可能会揭示供应短缺和成本</blockquote> Getting back from the newest models to a veteran,&nbsp;General MotorsGM 2.48%reports tomorrow. Like other car companies, GM’s earnings call could offer an interesting perspective on the semiconductor chip shortage.&nbsp;FordF 1.98%said last week the problem is taking a greater toll on its business than previously expected and could put pressure on its operating results in the second half of the year. For more on how the chip shortage is affecting car makers, see below.<blockquote>从最新款回到老手，通用汽车通用汽车2.48%明天报告。与其他汽车公司一样，通用汽车的盈利看涨期权可以为半导体芯片短缺提供一个有趣的视角。福特F 1.98%上周表示，该问题对其业务造成的影响超出了此前的预期，并可能给其下半年的经营业绩带来压力。有关芯片短缺如何影响汽车制造商的更多信息，请参见下文。</blockquote> Some of the supply shortages in chips and beyond might be playing out in the economic data this week. ISM manufacturing for April released on Monday came in below Wall Street’s expectations at 60.7%, down from 64.7% a month earlier. Supply chain disruptions and higher raw material costs might have played into the lower number.<blockquote>芯片及其他领域的一些供应短缺可能会在本周的经济数据中显现出来。周一公布的4月份ISM制造业增长率为60.7%，低于华尔街预期，低于一个月前的64.7%。供应链中断和原材料成本上升可能是导致数字下降的原因。</blockquote> The Fed has been saying inflation will be transitory, but we’ll see if they end up being right. A couple of weeks ago&nbsp;IntelINTC 1.77%said the chip shortage could last two years. President Biden’s infrastructure plan envisions more domestic production of these products, but you can’t turn on the assembly lines overnight, and there’s still no guarantee the entire bill as it exists now will become reality.<blockquote>美联储一直表示通胀将是暂时的，但我们将看看他们最终是否正确。几周前英特尔INTC 1.77%表示，芯片短缺可能会持续两年。拜登总统的基础设施计划设想在国内生产更多这些产品，但你不能在一夜之间打开装配线，而且仍然不能保证现在存在的整个法案会成为现实。</blockquote> In other data to watch, the ISM non-manufacturing index for April is due Wednesday. Consensus on Wall Street is for a headline figure of 65.0%, up from 63.7% in March, according to research firm Briefing.com.<blockquote>在其他值得关注的数据中，4月份ISM非制造业指数将于周三公布。根据研究公司Briefing.com的数据，华尔街的共识是总体数字为65.0%，高于3月份的63.7%。</blockquote> Of course, the biggest report this week is Friday’s non-farm payrolls, where analysts expect a cool million new jobs created in April vs. 916,000 in March. We’ll dig into that a little more tomorrow, with some things worth watching in the report beyond that headline number. Stay tuned.<blockquote>当然，本周最大的报告是周五的非农就业数据，分析师预计4月份将新增100万个就业岗位，而3月份为91.6万个。明天我们将对此进行更深入的探讨，除了标题数字之外，报告中还有一些值得关注的内容。敬请期待。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da99b665ba0fa3e07d7fc1e25ce3dd62\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"412\"><blockquote></blockquote> CHART OF THE DAY:THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...A few weeks ago we ran this same chart of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) vs. its 50-day moving average (blue line). Not much has changed since then. The index still holds a firm premium to the 50-day, and hasn’t come close to testing it in over a month. The 50-day is now just above 4000, and every time this year the index tested it, the result was a solid rebound. The question is, if the market sells off a bit and tests this important technical area, will it hold again? If not, more technical selling could break out, changing this long-running pattern. Data Source: S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.Chart source: The&nbsp;thinkorswim® platform.&nbsp;For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.<blockquote>每日图表：事情变化越多...几周前，我们运行了标普500指数（SPX烛台）与其50天移动平均线（蓝线）的相同图表。从那以后没有太大变化。该指数仍较50日指数保持稳定溢价，并且已经一个多月没有接近测试该指数了。50日线现在略高于4000点，今年该指数每次测试它，结果都是强劲反弹。问题是，如果市场稍微抛售并测试这个重要的技术区域，它会再次站稳吗？否则，更多的技术性抛售可能会爆发，改变这种长期模式。数据来源：标准普尔道琼斯指数。图表来源：thinkorswim®平台。仅用于说明目的。过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。</blockquote> Horse’s Mouth Time:&nbsp;Something that might be worth paying attention to today is the Wall Street Journal’s CEO summit, which starts this morning and features interviews with&nbsp;JP Morgan ChaseJPM 0.04%CEO Jamie Dimon,&nbsp;MerckMRK 0.03%Chairman and CEO Kenneth C. Frazier, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.<blockquote>马嘴时间：今天可能值得关注的是《华尔街日报》的首席执行官峰会，该峰会将于今天上午开始，其中包括对摩根大通摩根大通0.04%首席执行官杰米·戴蒙，默克MRK 0.03%董事长兼首席执行官肯尼思·弗雷泽(Kenneth C.Frazier)和财政部长珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)。</blockquote> Dimon’s going to be asked about the economic rebound and the markets, the WSJ said, but it might be interesting to see if they ask him any questions about the banking industry now that Q1 earnings are in the rearview mirror. Some analysts note that activity on Wall Street—especially on the&nbsp;Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)&nbsp;front—has slowed down slightly in Q2, and wonder if that means the sizzling investment banking revenues enjoyed by the industry in Q1 might not be as easy to scoop up this quarter. SPACs raised $82 billion last year, the WSJ reported.<blockquote>《华尔街日报》表示，戴蒙将被问及有关经济反弹和市场的问题，但既然第一季度收益已成为过去，看看他们是否会向他提出任何有关银行业的问题可能会很有趣。一些分析师指出，华尔街的活动——尤其是特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)方面——在第二季度略有放缓，并想知道这是否意味着该行业在第一季度享有的炙手可热的投资银行收入可能不会那么容易本季度上涨。据《华尔街日报》报道，SPAC去年筹集了820亿美元。</blockquote> Earnings Come Down The Stretch With A&nbsp;Lead:&nbsp;We’ve heard a lot of analysts say what a great earnings season it’s been, but it’s another thing to see the actual number plugged in. How does this sound? 45.8%. That’s the average S&amp;P 500 earnings growth with 60% of companies now reporting, according to research firm Factset. If it remains there or higher for the rest of the way, it will be the best earnings growth for a quarter since the economy was emerging from the financial crisis in early 2010. It also leaves analysts’ average estimate of 24% earnings growth going into the reporting period completely in the dust. In fact, 86% of companies are beating analyst estimates on earnings, and 78% on revenue, Factset says.<blockquote>盈利处于领先地位：我们听到很多分析师说这是一个多么棒的财报季，但看到实际数字是另一回事。这听起来怎么样？45.8%.根据研究公司Factset的数据，这是标普500目前60%的公司报告的平均盈利增长。如果该指数在剩余时间内保持在该水平或更高，这将是自2010年初经济摆脱金融危机以来最好的季度盈利增长。这也让分析师对报告期内盈利增长24%的平均预期完全落空。Factset表示，事实上，86%的公司盈利超出了分析师预期，78%的公司收入超出了分析师预期。</blockquote> This all sounds good, but you’ll hear some naysayers tell you most of the strength in earnings was built into stock prices going in. Actually, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, and you can see that if you follow the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&amp;P 500. It’s now at 22, by Factset’s reckoning, and that’s down from nearly 24 at the start of 2021. Over the same year-to-date time frame, the S&amp;P Equal Weight 500 jumped 16.2%, research firm CFRA noted Monday (equal weight means each of the 500 companies in the index is given a fixed weight instead of the index being weighted by market cap). In other words, stocks have risen while valuations fell, which is a neat trick.<blockquote>这一切听起来都不错，但你会听到一些反对者告诉你，盈利的大部分优势都是由股价的上涨决定的。实际上，这有点夸张，如果你遵循标普500的12个月远期市盈率，你就可以看到这一点。根据Factset的计算，目前为22，低于2021年初的近24。研究公司CFRA周一指出，在今年迄今为止的同一时间范围内，标准普尔等权重500指数上涨了16.2%（等权重意味着指数中的500家公司中的每家都被赋予固定权重，而不是指数按市值加权）。换句话说，股票上涨，而估值下跌，这是一个巧妙的伎俩。</blockquote> No Chips, No Ride:&nbsp;Have you driven by a car dealership lately? If so, you may have noticed that everything seems more or less in place, except for the cars, that is—they’re missing. As we reported earlier this year, the semiconductor sector is undergoing a massive worldwide shortage. For car buyers, this may mean longer waits and higher prices. And by the way, new cars aren’t the only ones impacted by the shortage. The average price of used cars jumped 12.5% over the last year, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association.<blockquote>没有筹码，就没有游乐设施：你最近开车经过汽车经销商吗？如果是这样，您可能已经注意到，除了汽车之外，一切似乎都或多或少就位了，也就是说，它们不见了。正如我们今年早些时候报道的那样，半导体行业正在经历全球范围内的大规模短缺。对于购车者来说，这可能意味着更长的等待时间和更高的价格。顺便说一句，新车并不是唯一受到短缺影响的汽车。根据全国汽车经销商协会的数据，二手车平均价格比去年上涨了12.5%。</blockquote> For automakers, however, this means wider sales, some even seeing record profits as vehicles are sold before they make it to the sales lot. Investors might want to keep an eye on companies like&nbsp;General MotorsGM 2.48%,&nbsp;FordF 1.98%, and other manufacturers to see how the chip shortage may be impacting their bottom lines. Might the shortage in rides be a ticket to ride the chip shortage to the upside?<blockquote>然而，对于汽车制造商来说，这意味着更广泛的销售，有些人甚至看到了创纪录的利润，因为车辆在进入销售现场之前就被售出。投资者可能需要关注以下公司通用汽车通用汽车2.48%，福特F 1.98%，以及其他制造商，了解芯片短缺可能如何影响他们的利润。游乐设施的短缺可能是利用芯片短缺的门票吗？</blockquote>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179044309","content_text":"After racing into earnings season, stocks have basically treaded water the last two weeks. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished Monday less than 1% changed from mid-April when reporting season began.\nThat’s despite an amazing Q1 earnings performance by S&P 500 companies so far, with average earnings per share up more than 40%. With more than half of the reporting season done, 86% of companies have beaten earnings expectations, according to FactSet.\nWhen you accompany that with the lack of gains in major indices, you have to ask yourself how much of the good news was priced in. We were already at all-time highs ahead of the reporting period, so can the reality match the expectations?\nAnyway, this stall in forward progress isn’t something to be overly concerned about. We’re heading into summer, which tends to be a time of lighter volumes, but lighter volumes can mean good things as well.\nFor the next act, investors might have their eyes peeled on ride-sharing companies Lyft Technologies Inc.LYFT 4.39%and UberUBER 3.03%today and tomorrow to see if they can provide insight into reopening progress.\nSolid Reporting Season Continues With CVS, Pfizer\nBefore that, investors got another set of solid earnings news this morning as CVSCVS 3%and PfizerPFE 0.45%outran consensus expectations and raised guidance. PFE raised revenue guidance by 18% for the year, which is pretty impressive. Some of that is related to their Covid vaccine, but not all of it.\nTechnology—particularly the so-called “FAANG” sector of that group—appeared to be taking the worst of it early Tuesday. The Tech sector is by far the worst SPX performer over the last week even though earnings from most of the “mega-caps” in that sector looked solid. At the same time, cyclical sectors—think Financials and Energy—have led gains recently. It’s more along the lines of what we were seeing earlier this year before Tech made a move going into earnings season.\nCall it what you want: “Consolidation” is a word some people are using to describe this lack of direction in the markets amid a slowing news flow. The directionless trading appears to be extending into Tuesday, with major indices losing ground ahead of the opening bell and the closely-watched 10-year Treasury yield back at 1.6%, right in the middle of its recent range.\nStill, commodity prices—and not just the semiconductors we’ve talked about recently—are on the rise, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index ($BCOM) among those commodity benchmarks sitting on multi-year highs. Even if long-dated Treasury yields remain muted and the Fed sticks to its narrative of “transitory inflation” (see more below), commodities seem to be factoring in higher prices.\nVolatility is up slightly, too, not surprising considering the pressure on stocks. Keep an eye on the 20 level for the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX). We’re only slightly below that benchmark figure, and looking at forward contracts, the message looks like we’ll continue to bounce around for a while.\nEarnings Season About To Catch A Ride\nIt’s kind of fitting that “reopening” stocks led the way Monday in a week that features earnings fromUber Technologies Inc.UBER 3.03%andLyftLYFT 4.39%, two companies that would likely stand to benefit if people are getting out more. LYFT is expected to report today after the close and UBER is up to bat tomorrow after the close.\nBoth companies are apparently having some trouble finding drivers to meet all the new demand, kind of a good problem to have. However, it could be costly, with both having to spend more on driver incentives. There’s also a regulatory headwind after the U.S. Labor secretary told Reuters that many gig economy workers should be treated as employees.\nIf that ends up happening nationwide and UBER and LYFT have to treat drivers as employees instead of independent contractors, it seems that would substantially increase costs for these companies. However, that’s far from settled yet.\nIn the meantime, what investors probably want to know is whether LYFT and UBER were able to continue cutting their losses in Q1 after shrinking their annual net losses last time out. They’re still going to likely face tough comparisons on revenue because a lot of the 2020 quarter they’re comparing to took place before the pandemic hit last March.\nIn contrast, other big earnings reports over the coming days include some of the companies many investors embraced big time last year when the pandemic hit. We’re talking PelotonPTON 0.71%, PaypalPYPL 3.11%, ModernaMRNA 4.59%, SquareSQ 2.71%, and Roku Inc.ROKU 3.81%.  A lot of these companies had an amazing performance in 2020, but might have pulled forward years of demand. Now, as the economy reopens, they face pressure to explain how they’re going to drive toward profits and how they can keep the excitement going.\nIt’s not like these are necessarily stocks you can consider flash in the pans. People who got used to exercising at home and invested in a PTON machine probably aren’t going to abandon it for the gym right away, or necessarily at all. And MRNA’s vaccine technology has possibilities beyond the success of their Covid vaccine, analysts recently told Barron’s. PYPL and SQ’s technology was already in demand before Covid, though the pandemic might have given them a boost.\nFresh Earnings Could Cast Light On Supply Shortages, Costs\nGetting back from the newest models to a veteran, General MotorsGM 2.48%reports tomorrow. Like other car companies, GM’s earnings call could offer an interesting perspective on the semiconductor chip shortage. FordF 1.98%said last week the problem is taking a greater toll on its business than previously expected and could put pressure on its operating results in the second half of the year. For more on how the chip shortage is affecting car makers, see below.\nSome of the supply shortages in chips and beyond might be playing out in the economic data this week. ISM manufacturing for April released on Monday came in below Wall Street’s expectations at 60.7%, down from 64.7% a month earlier. Supply chain disruptions and higher raw material costs might have played into the lower number.\nThe Fed has been saying inflation will be transitory, but we’ll see if they end up being right. A couple of weeks ago IntelINTC 1.77%said the chip shortage could last two years. President Biden’s infrastructure plan envisions more domestic production of these products, but you can’t turn on the assembly lines overnight, and there’s still no guarantee the entire bill as it exists now will become reality.\nIn other data to watch, the ISM non-manufacturing index for April is due Wednesday. Consensus on Wall Street is for a headline figure of 65.0%, up from 63.7% in March, according to research firm Briefing.com.\nOf course, the biggest report this week is Friday’s non-farm payrolls, where analysts expect a cool million new jobs created in April vs. 916,000 in March. We’ll dig into that a little more tomorrow, with some things worth watching in the report beyond that headline number. Stay tuned.\n\nCHART OF THE DAY:THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...A few weeks ago we ran this same chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) vs. its 50-day moving average (blue line). Not much has changed since then. The index still holds a firm premium to the 50-day, and hasn’t come close to testing it in over a month. The 50-day is now just above 4000, and every time this year the index tested it, the result was a solid rebound. The question is, if the market sells off a bit and tests this important technical area, will it hold again? If not, more technical selling could break out, changing this long-running pattern. Data Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices.Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.\nHorse’s Mouth Time: Something that might be worth paying attention to today is the Wall Street Journal’s CEO summit, which starts this morning and features interviews with JP Morgan ChaseJPM 0.04%CEO Jamie Dimon, MerckMRK 0.03%Chairman and CEO Kenneth C. Frazier, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.\nDimon’s going to be asked about the economic rebound and the markets, the WSJ said, but it might be interesting to see if they ask him any questions about the banking industry now that Q1 earnings are in the rearview mirror. Some analysts note that activity on Wall Street—especially on the Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) front—has slowed down slightly in Q2, and wonder if that means the sizzling investment banking revenues enjoyed by the industry in Q1 might not be as easy to scoop up this quarter. SPACs raised $82 billion last year, the WSJ reported.\nEarnings Come Down The Stretch With A Lead: We’ve heard a lot of analysts say what a great earnings season it’s been, but it’s another thing to see the actual number plugged in. How does this sound? 45.8%. That’s the average S&P 500 earnings growth with 60% of companies now reporting, according to research firm Factset. If it remains there or higher for the rest of the way, it will be the best earnings growth for a quarter since the economy was emerging from the financial crisis in early 2010. It also leaves analysts’ average estimate of 24% earnings growth going into the reporting period completely in the dust. In fact, 86% of companies are beating analyst estimates on earnings, and 78% on revenue, Factset says.\nThis all sounds good, but you’ll hear some naysayers tell you most of the strength in earnings was built into stock prices going in. Actually, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, and you can see that if you follow the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500. It’s now at 22, by Factset’s reckoning, and that’s down from nearly 24 at the start of 2021. Over the same year-to-date time frame, the S&P Equal Weight 500 jumped 16.2%, research firm CFRA noted Monday (equal weight means each of the 500 companies in the index is given a fixed weight instead of the index being weighted by market cap). In other words, stocks have risen while valuations fell, which is a neat trick.\nNo Chips, No Ride: Have you driven by a car dealership lately? If so, you may have noticed that everything seems more or less in place, except for the cars, that is—they’re missing. As we reported earlier this year, the semiconductor sector is undergoing a massive worldwide shortage. For car buyers, this may mean longer waits and higher prices. And by the way, new cars aren’t the only ones impacted by the shortage. The average price of used cars jumped 12.5% over the last year, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association.\nFor automakers, however, this means wider sales, some even seeing record profits as vehicles are sold before they make it to the sales lot. Investors might want to keep an eye on companies like General MotorsGM 2.48%, FordF 1.98%, and other manufacturers to see how the chip shortage may be impacting their bottom lines. Might the shortage in rides be a ticket to ride the chip shortage to the upside?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":4223336,"commentId":"4223336","gmtCreate":1620167535496,"gmtModify":1620167535496,"authorId":3570813663502369,"author":{"id":3570813663502369,"idStr":"3570813663502369","authorId":3570813663502369,"name":"eeez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e4f974ced53f13a2b714d56018e7b43","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84859c65fc2d7681e28f6b8e9b0535a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":102033226,"objectIdStr":"102033226","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"👌","text":"👌","html":"👌","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/102033226"}