khaw93
2021-05-05
Why ?
Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":102062369,"tweetId":"102062369","gmtCreate":1620169224951,"gmtModify":1634207371395,"author":{"id":3582017454478915,"idStr":"3582017454478915","authorId":3582017454478915,"authorIdStr":"3582017454478915","name":"khaw93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b0c78b68eadd5a003e685f98d447d07","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Why ?</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Why ?</p></body></html>","text":"Why ?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102062369","repostId":1107772617,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107772617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620139709,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107772617?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 22:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107772617","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"With investments, popular is not better.U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from inv","content":"<p><b>With investments, popular is not better.</b>U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote><b>有了投资，受欢迎并不是更好。</b>美国股票基金现在正从投资者那里获得大量新现金——这并不是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote></p><p>Many investors might see this differently — that a huge influx of cash is positive. In fact, fund flows are a contrarian indicator: the U.S. stock market in the past has performed better when there is a net outflow of cash.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者可能会有不同的看法——大量现金流入是积极的。事实上，资金流动是一个逆向指标：过去美国股市在现金净流出时表现更好。</blockquote></p><p>The evidence is summarized in the chart below, which plots net inflows of cash to U.S. stock funds (both open-end and exchange-traded funds) by year over the past decade. Notice that in all but two of the years since 2010 there have been net outflows.</p><p><blockquote>下图总结了证据，该图绘制了过去十年中每年流入美国股票基金（开放式基金和交易所交易基金）的现金净额。请注意，自2010年以来，除了两年之外，所有年份都有净流出。</blockquote></p><p><b>Reversal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逆转</b></blockquote></p><p>Net flows into U.S. equity (open-endded funds and ETF), in billions</p><p><blockquote>流入美国股票（开放式基金和ETF）的净流量，单位：十亿</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c9c4ef1e3533acd3d248af32cdf728f\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>This 2010-2020 period was extremely strong for U.S. stocks. Yet over this time U.S. stock funds experienced a net outflow of $741 billion. (Data are from TrimTabs, a part of EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence.)</p><p><blockquote>2010年至2020年期间，美国股市表现极其强劲。然而，在此期间，美国股票基金经历了7410亿美元的净流出。（数据来自TrimTabs，EPFR是Informa Financial Intelligence的一个部门。）</blockquote></p><p>This year so far is seeing a major reversal of this longer-term trend. For the first four months of this year, according to TrimTabs, U.S. equity funds have received net inflows of $142.3 billion. If this pace were to continue for the full year, there would be $427 billion of net inflows in 2021 — retracing more than half the total outflow from 2010 through 2020.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，这一长期趋势发生了重大逆转。根据TrimTabs的数据，今年前四个月，美国股票基金获得了1423亿美元的净流入。如果这一速度持续全年，2021年将有4270亿美元的净流入——追溯到2010年至2020年总流出的一半以上。</blockquote></p><p>One study that puts this huge year-to-date inflow in a bearish light appeared last December in the Review of Finance. Entitled “ETF Arbitrage, Non-Fundamental Demand, and Return Predictability,” the study was conducted by David Brown of the University of Arizona, Shaun William Davies of the University of Colorado Boulder and Matthew Ringgenberg of the University of Utah. The researchers found that, on average, the ETFs with the biggest outflows outperformed the ETFs with the biggest inflows for up to a year after these extreme flows.</p><p><blockquote>去年12月的《金融评论》上发表了一项研究，对今年迄今为止的巨额资金流入持悲观态度。这项名为“ETF套利、非基本面需求和回报可预测性”的研究由亚利桑那大学的David Brown、科罗拉多大学博尔德分校的Shaun William Davies和犹他大学的Matthew Ringgenberg进行。研究人员发现，平均而言，在这些极端资金流动后的一年内，流出最多的ETF的表现优于流入最多的ETF。</blockquote></p><p>Another academic study that reached a similar conclusion has been circulating since January. Entitled “Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,” the study was conducted by Itzhak Ben-David and Byungwook Kim of Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova University. The researchers focused on the specialized ETFs that are created to capitalize on investor fads and market trends, and which typically receive a big influx of cash soon after launch. They found that these ETFs over their first five years after launch lag the market on a risk-adjusted basis by 5% per year on average.</p><p><blockquote>另一项得出类似结论的学术研究自一月份以来一直在流传。这项名为“ETF领域注意力的竞争”的研究由俄亥俄州立大学的Itzhak Ben-David和Byungwook Kim、瑞士卢加诺大学的Francesco Franzoni和维拉诺瓦大学的Rabih Moussawi进行。研究人员重点关注专门的ETF，这些ETF是为了利用投资者时尚和市场趋势而创建的，通常在推出后不久就会获得大量现金流入。他们发现，这些ETF在推出后的前五年，经风险调整后平均每年落后市场5%。</blockquote></p><p>The tenuous relationship between performance and fund flows is evident also in the accompanying tables. The first lists the 10 ETFs with the best year-to-date returns. The second table lists the 10 ETFs with the largest net inflows. (Return data are from FactSet; flow data are from CFRA Research).</p><p><blockquote>业绩和资金流动之间的微妙关系也在附表中显而易见。第一个列出了年初至今回报最好的10只ETF。第二张表列出了净流入最多的10只ETF。（返回数据来自FactSet；流量数据来自CFRA研究）。</blockquote></p><p>Notice that none of the funds in the first table appears in the second.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，第一个表中的基金都没有出现在第二个表中。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2e0354f1f5c9cfd5611c3f6e03c3cee\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5cd98cfa89435ba9ae4a0bfdedd3891\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-04 22:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>With investments, popular is not better.</b>U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote><b>有了投资，受欢迎并不是更好。</b>美国股票基金现在正从投资者那里获得大量新现金——这并不是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote></p><p>Many investors might see this differently — that a huge influx of cash is positive. In fact, fund flows are a contrarian indicator: the U.S. stock market in the past has performed better when there is a net outflow of cash.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者可能会有不同的看法——大量现金流入是积极的。事实上，资金流动是一个逆向指标：过去美国股市在现金净流出时表现更好。</blockquote></p><p>The evidence is summarized in the chart below, which plots net inflows of cash to U.S. stock funds (both open-end and exchange-traded funds) by year over the past decade. Notice that in all but two of the years since 2010 there have been net outflows.</p><p><blockquote>下图总结了证据，该图绘制了过去十年中每年流入美国股票基金（开放式基金和交易所交易基金）的现金净额。请注意，自2010年以来，除了两年之外，所有年份都有净流出。</blockquote></p><p><b>Reversal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逆转</b></blockquote></p><p>Net flows into U.S. equity (open-endded funds and ETF), in billions</p><p><blockquote>流入美国股票（开放式基金和ETF）的净流量，单位：十亿</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c9c4ef1e3533acd3d248af32cdf728f\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>This 2010-2020 period was extremely strong for U.S. stocks. Yet over this time U.S. stock funds experienced a net outflow of $741 billion. (Data are from TrimTabs, a part of EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence.)</p><p><blockquote>2010年至2020年期间，美国股市表现极其强劲。然而，在此期间，美国股票基金经历了7410亿美元的净流出。（数据来自TrimTabs，EPFR是Informa Financial Intelligence的一个部门。）</blockquote></p><p>This year so far is seeing a major reversal of this longer-term trend. For the first four months of this year, according to TrimTabs, U.S. equity funds have received net inflows of $142.3 billion. If this pace were to continue for the full year, there would be $427 billion of net inflows in 2021 — retracing more than half the total outflow from 2010 through 2020.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，这一长期趋势发生了重大逆转。根据TrimTabs的数据，今年前四个月，美国股票基金获得了1423亿美元的净流入。如果这一速度持续全年，2021年将有4270亿美元的净流入——追溯到2010年至2020年总流出的一半以上。</blockquote></p><p>One study that puts this huge year-to-date inflow in a bearish light appeared last December in the Review of Finance. Entitled “ETF Arbitrage, Non-Fundamental Demand, and Return Predictability,” the study was conducted by David Brown of the University of Arizona, Shaun William Davies of the University of Colorado Boulder and Matthew Ringgenberg of the University of Utah. The researchers found that, on average, the ETFs with the biggest outflows outperformed the ETFs with the biggest inflows for up to a year after these extreme flows.</p><p><blockquote>去年12月的《金融评论》上发表了一项研究，对今年迄今为止的巨额资金流入持悲观态度。这项名为“ETF套利、非基本面需求和回报可预测性”的研究由亚利桑那大学的David Brown、科罗拉多大学博尔德分校的Shaun William Davies和犹他大学的Matthew Ringgenberg进行。研究人员发现，平均而言，在这些极端资金流动后的一年内，流出最多的ETF的表现优于流入最多的ETF。</blockquote></p><p>Another academic study that reached a similar conclusion has been circulating since January. Entitled “Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,” the study was conducted by Itzhak Ben-David and Byungwook Kim of Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova University. The researchers focused on the specialized ETFs that are created to capitalize on investor fads and market trends, and which typically receive a big influx of cash soon after launch. They found that these ETFs over their first five years after launch lag the market on a risk-adjusted basis by 5% per year on average.</p><p><blockquote>另一项得出类似结论的学术研究自一月份以来一直在流传。这项名为“ETF领域注意力的竞争”的研究由俄亥俄州立大学的Itzhak Ben-David和Byungwook Kim、瑞士卢加诺大学的Francesco Franzoni和维拉诺瓦大学的Rabih Moussawi进行。研究人员重点关注专门的ETF，这些ETF是为了利用投资者时尚和市场趋势而创建的，通常在推出后不久就会获得大量现金流入。他们发现，这些ETF在推出后的前五年，经风险调整后平均每年落后市场5%。</blockquote></p><p>The tenuous relationship between performance and fund flows is evident also in the accompanying tables. The first lists the 10 ETFs with the best year-to-date returns. The second table lists the 10 ETFs with the largest net inflows. (Return data are from FactSet; flow data are from CFRA Research).</p><p><blockquote>业绩和资金流动之间的微妙关系也在附表中显而易见。第一个列出了年初至今回报最好的10只ETF。第二张表列出了净流入最多的10只ETF。（返回数据来自FactSet；流量数据来自CFRA研究）。</blockquote></p><p>Notice that none of the funds in the first table appears in the second.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，第一个表中的基金都没有出现在第二个表中。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2e0354f1f5c9cfd5611c3f6e03c3cee\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5cd98cfa89435ba9ae4a0bfdedd3891\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-should-worry-about-the-flood-of-new-cash-into-u-s-stock-funds-11620102925?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-should-worry-about-the-flood-of-new-cash-into-u-s-stock-funds-11620102925?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107772617","content_text":"With investments, popular is not better.U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.Many investors might see this differently — that a huge influx of cash is positive. In fact, fund flows are a contrarian indicator: the U.S. stock market in the past has performed better when there is a net outflow of cash.The evidence is summarized in the chart below, which plots net inflows of cash to U.S. stock funds (both open-end and exchange-traded funds) by year over the past decade. Notice that in all but two of the years since 2010 there have been net outflows.ReversalNet flows into U.S. equity (open-endded funds and ETF), in billionsThis 2010-2020 period was extremely strong for U.S. stocks. Yet over this time U.S. stock funds experienced a net outflow of $741 billion. (Data are from TrimTabs, a part of EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence.)This year so far is seeing a major reversal of this longer-term trend. For the first four months of this year, according to TrimTabs, U.S. equity funds have received net inflows of $142.3 billion. If this pace were to continue for the full year, there would be $427 billion of net inflows in 2021 — retracing more than half the total outflow from 2010 through 2020.One study that puts this huge year-to-date inflow in a bearish light appeared last December in the Review of Finance. Entitled “ETF Arbitrage, Non-Fundamental Demand, and Return Predictability,” the study was conducted by David Brown of the University of Arizona, Shaun William Davies of the University of Colorado Boulder and Matthew Ringgenberg of the University of Utah. The researchers found that, on average, the ETFs with the biggest outflows outperformed the ETFs with the biggest inflows for up to a year after these extreme flows.Another academic study that reached a similar conclusion has been circulating since January. Entitled “Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,” the study was conducted by Itzhak Ben-David and Byungwook Kim of Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova University. The researchers focused on the specialized ETFs that are created to capitalize on investor fads and market trends, and which typically receive a big influx of cash soon after launch. They found that these ETFs over their first five years after launch lag the market on a risk-adjusted basis by 5% per year on average.The tenuous relationship between performance and fund flows is evident also in the accompanying tables. The first lists the 10 ETFs with the best year-to-date returns. The second table lists the 10 ETFs with the largest net inflows. (Return data are from FactSet; flow data are from CFRA Research).Notice that none of the funds in the first table appears in the second.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1410,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/102062369"}
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