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2021-04-30
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Why Warren Buffett invested in Coca-Cola and its lesson<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特为何投资可口可乐及其教训</blockquote>
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It's also providing ","content":"<p>Coca-Cola (KO) is Warren Buffett's oldest stock position at Berkshire Hathaway. It's also providing some of the best returns, with the stock up over 2,000% since the Oracle of Omaha started buying it 33 years ago. Modern investors looking to navigate the next decade would be well-served to learn how Buffett made this profitable calculation.</p><p><blockquote>可口可乐（KO）是沃伦·巴菲特在伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司最古老的股票头寸。它还提供了一些最好的回报，自奥马哈先知33年前开始购买以来，该股已上涨超过2,000%。希望驾驭未来十年的现代投资者最好了解巴菲特是如何进行这一有利可图的计算的。</blockquote></p><p> At a recentYahoo Finance Plus webinar, Bill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management, began the lesson by explaining how Buffett manages growth and value in the Berkshire portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的Yahoo Finance Plus网络研讨会上，Smead Capital Management首席投资官Bill Smead首先解释了巴菲特如何管理伯克希尔投资组合的增长和价值。</blockquote></p><p> \"To Buffett and [Charlie] Munger, all investing is value investing. They want to buy the bird in the hand, which is worth two in the bush. They want to buy something for well less than they think it's worth. So the ideal thing in investing is based on the mathematics of common stock investing. If you buy a stock for $30 and you pay cash, the worst thing that could possibly happen to you is it goes to zero. But the best thing that could possibly happen to you is exponential,\" says Smead.</p><p><blockquote>“对巴菲特和芒格来说，所有的投资都是价值投资。他们想买手里的鸟，它值两只鸟。他们想买比他们认为的价值低得多的东西。所以投资中最理想的东西是基于普通股投资的数学。如果你以30美元的价格购买一只股票并支付现金，可能发生在你身上的最糟糕的事情就是它变成了零。但可能发生在你身上的最好的事情是指数级的，”斯米德说。</blockquote></p><p> Smead explains how Buffett and Munger differ from legendary value investor Benjamin Graham and why value and growth aren't mutually exclusive. Graham would \"buy 200 cigar butts at half the price that they're worth, and through the market's movements [would] get wealthier doing that,\" says Smead.</p><p><blockquote>斯米德解释了巴菲特和芒格与传奇价值投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆的不同之处，以及为什么价值和增长并不相互排斥。斯米德说，格雷厄姆会“以一半的价格购买200个雪茄烟头，通过市场的波动，这样做会变得更富有”。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett, on the other hand, wants to \"buy a business that is growing over the decades at a time when other people are scared to death or don't understand why it's going to be such a good thing over the next 20 or 30 years — and then enjoy a double whammy, which is the re-evaluation.\" Smead explains this is \"the price that people are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings growth as well as the earnings number [itself] grows.\"</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，巴菲特希望“在其他人害怕得要死或不明白为什么它在未来20或30年内会是一件如此好的事情的时候，收购一家几十年来一直在增长的企业——然后享受双重打击，这就是重新评估。”斯米德解释说，这是“人们愿意为每一美元的收入增长以及收入数字本身的增长付出的代价。”</blockquote></p><p> Coca-Cola a risky bet</p><p><blockquote>可口可乐是一个冒险的赌注</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire first bought Coke stock from 1988 to 1989,scooping upover 23 million shares. WhenBuffett first started buying in the first quarter, many investors were still skittish from the Black Monday crash in October 1987. Buffett going big on the stock was considered risky, especially because it was not a typical Berkshire investment.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司于1988年至1989年首次购买可口可乐股票，买入了超过2300万股。当巴菲特在第一季度首次开始买入时，许多投资者仍对1987年10月黑色星期一的崩盘感到不安。巴菲特大力投资该股被认为是有风险的，特别是因为这不是典型的伯克希尔投资。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett defended the position in the 1988 annual Berkshire letter to shareholders with what would become one of hismost famous aphorisms. \"In 1988 we made major purchases of Federal Home Loan Mortgage ... and Coca Cola. We expect to hold these securities for a long time. In fact, when we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever,\" said Buffett.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在1988年伯克希尔致股东的年度信中用后来成为他最著名的格言之一来捍卫自己的立场。巴菲特表示，“1988年，我们主要购买了联邦住房贷款抵押贷款……以及可口可乐。我们期望长期持有这些证券。事实上，当我们拥有一些优秀管理水平很高的优秀企业时，我们最喜欢的持有期就是永远。”</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire more than quadrupled the position to 100 million shares by 1994 and to this day hasn't sold any. After two stock splits, the share count is now 400 million, but Berkshire's cost basis has remained $1.3 billion since 1994. As of year-end 2020, the investment was worth $21.5 billion, a return of 1550%, not including dividends. (Berkshire owns 9.3% of all Coke shares outstanding as of 2020 year-end.)</p><p><blockquote>到1994年，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的持股数量增加了四倍多，达到1亿股，但迄今为止尚未出售任何股票。经过两次股票分割后，股票数量现在为4亿股，但伯克希尔的成本基础自1994年以来一直保持在13亿美元。截至2020年底，该投资价值215亿美元，回报率为1550%，不包括股息。（截至2020年底，伯克希尔持有可口可乐所有已发行股票的9.3%。）</blockquote></p><p> But the 1987 crash hangover had faded for Buffett, and the world was changing. The Soviet empire was beginning to crumble, and the Berlin Wall was about to topple — which it finally did in November 1989.</p><p><blockquote>但对巴菲特来说，1987年崩盘的后遗症已经消退，世界正在发生变化。苏联帝国开始崩溃，柏林墙即将倒塌——它终于在1989年11月倒塌了。</blockquote></p><p> Smead relates his own experience as a broker in the 1980s to Buffett, saying, \"Buffett [was buying] Coca-Cola in '89 at about 18 times earnings. Well, I started in the investment business in 1980 as a stockbroker at Drexel Burnham Lambert. And my first stock that I was pitching to people was Coca-Cola — $30 a share. It was at six times earnings paying a 5% dividend. When Buffett bought in eight years later, he paid six times what I was trying to pay for it.\"</p><p><blockquote>Smead将自己在20世纪80年代作为经纪人的经历与巴菲特联系起来，他说：“巴菲特在89年以大约18倍的市盈率收购了可口可乐。嗯，我在1980年开始从事投资业务，在德雷克塞尔·伯纳姆·兰伯特公司做股票经纪人。我向人们推销的第一只股票是可口可乐——每股30美元。它的市盈率是6倍，股息为5%。八年后，当巴菲特买入时，他支付的价格是我试图支付的价格的六倍。”</blockquote></p><p> Smead explains how investor sentiment changed throughout the 1980s, as memories of the tumultuous 1970s faded and morphed into optimism over abull marketthat would become one of history's longest and most profitable.</p><p><blockquote>Smead解释了投资者情绪在整个20世纪80年代是如何变化的，因为对动荡的20世纪70年代的记忆逐渐消退，并转变为对牛市的乐观情绪，这将成为历史上最长、利润最高的牛市之一。</blockquote></p><p> \"I would be destitute and living in a tent in downtown Phoenix or Downtown Seattle if I kept pitching [Coca-Cola] stock because no one would buy it. Virtually, no one wanted it. Common stock ownership in 1981 was 8% of U.S. household assets — off the charts low. No one wanted that company,\" he says.</p><p><blockquote>“如果我一直推销（可口可乐）股票，我会一贫如洗，住在凤凰城市中心或西雅图市中心的帐篷里，因为没有人会买它。实际上，没有人想要它。1981年，普通股持有量占美国家庭资产的8%——低得离谱。没有人想要这家公司，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Smead explains how the changing political environment would also change the macro picture, providing new opportunities and markets for companies. \"[A] number of countries that used to be closed were going to open their doors. And the Coca-Cola corporation was going to be able to sell their beverages to a huge part of the population that they had never sold it to before. And in emerging markets and less wealthy countries, that 'clean, something to drink' was very valuable.\"</p><p><blockquote>Smead解释了不断变化的政治环境也将如何改变宏观形势，为公司提供新的机会和市场。“许多过去封闭的国家将敞开大门。可口可乐公司将能够向很大一部分以前从未向其销售过的人口出售他们的饮料。在新兴市场和不太富裕的国家，‘干净、有东西喝’是非常有价值的。”</blockquote></p><p> New investment opportunities post-COVID</p><p><blockquote>疫情后的新投资机会</blockquote></p><p> In the present day, the pandemic has thrown the macro picture into upheaval again, presenting investors with a new set of challenges. Smead assesses the demographic changes afoot and sets the stage for what he believes are new, secular investment opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>如今，疫情再次让宏观形势陷入动荡，给投资者带来了一系列新的挑战。Smead评估了正在发生的人口变化，并为他认为新的长期投资机会奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"We looked at the prior time when the 30- to 45-year-old-age group was dramatically larger than the previous group, the ones that preceded them. And that was the baby boomers taking the place of the silent generation in the 70s and 80s ... And we now have 90 million millennials — not too long from now, 95 million — that are going to take 65 million Gen Xers place in the 30- to 45-year-old age bracket. So that just creates a huge amount of demand for necessities,\" he says.</p><p><blockquote>“我们研究了之前的时间，当时30至45岁的年龄组比之前的年龄组大得多。那是婴儿潮一代取代了70年代和80年代沉默的一代……我们现在有9000万千禧一代——不久之后，9500万——他们将取代30至45岁年龄段的6500万x一代。因此，这只会创造对必需品的巨大需求，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Smead references research from Fundstrat Global Advisors that ranks the industries it expects millennials to disrupt as their spending eclipses that of boomers. \"At the top of that list is mortgage interest and finance charges. So long before it was in the news, long before it was popular to think about, we have been over-owning the homebuilders, knowing that we have years of building homes to make up the differential between demand for homes, that population will drive the existing homes for sale,\" Smead says.</p><p><blockquote>Smead引用了Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究，该研究对其预计千禧一代的支出超过婴儿潮一代时将颠覆的行业进行了排名。“排在首位的是抵押贷款利息和财务费用。早在它出现在新闻中之前，早在它流行之前，我们就已经过度拥有房屋建筑商，因为我们知道我们有多年的时间建造房屋来弥补房屋需求之间的差异，这些人口将推动现有房屋的出售，”斯米德说。</blockquote></p><p> Smead expectsstock pickers to outperformpassive investors over the coming decade. He also sees the footwear and household furnishings and equipment industries to outperform based on the same demographic trends relating to homebuilders.</p><p><blockquote>Smead预计未来十年选股者的表现将优于被动投资者。他还认为，基于与住宅建筑商相关的相同人口趋势，鞋类、家居家具和设备行业的表现将优于大盘。</blockquote></p><p> \"[T]he irony of the pandemic is: It's actually catalyzed one of our most important themes, which is the necessity spending of the millennial age group,\" says Smead.</p><p><blockquote>“这场流行病的讽刺之处在于：它实际上催化了我们最重要的主题之一，即千禧一代的必需品支出，”斯米德说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1584348713084","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Warren Buffett invested in Coca-Cola and its lesson<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特为何投资可口可乐及其教训</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Warren Buffett invested in Coca-Cola and its lesson<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特为何投资可口可乐及其教训</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-30 17:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Coca-Cola (KO) is Warren Buffett's oldest stock position at Berkshire Hathaway. It's also providing some of the best returns, with the stock up over 2,000% since the Oracle of Omaha started buying it 33 years ago. Modern investors looking to navigate the next decade would be well-served to learn how Buffett made this profitable calculation.</p><p><blockquote>可口可乐（KO）是沃伦·巴菲特在伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司最古老的股票头寸。它还提供了一些最好的回报，自奥马哈先知33年前开始购买以来，该股已上涨超过2,000%。希望驾驭未来十年的现代投资者最好了解巴菲特是如何进行这一有利可图的计算的。</blockquote></p><p> At a recentYahoo Finance Plus webinar, Bill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management, began the lesson by explaining how Buffett manages growth and value in the Berkshire portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的Yahoo Finance Plus网络研讨会上，Smead Capital Management首席投资官Bill Smead首先解释了巴菲特如何管理伯克希尔投资组合的增长和价值。</blockquote></p><p> \"To Buffett and [Charlie] Munger, all investing is value investing. They want to buy the bird in the hand, which is worth two in the bush. They want to buy something for well less than they think it's worth. So the ideal thing in investing is based on the mathematics of common stock investing. If you buy a stock for $30 and you pay cash, the worst thing that could possibly happen to you is it goes to zero. But the best thing that could possibly happen to you is exponential,\" says Smead.</p><p><blockquote>“对巴菲特和芒格来说，所有的投资都是价值投资。他们想买手里的鸟，它值两只鸟。他们想买比他们认为的价值低得多的东西。所以投资中最理想的东西是基于普通股投资的数学。如果你以30美元的价格购买一只股票并支付现金，可能发生在你身上的最糟糕的事情就是它变成了零。但可能发生在你身上的最好的事情是指数级的，”斯米德说。</blockquote></p><p> Smead explains how Buffett and Munger differ from legendary value investor Benjamin Graham and why value and growth aren't mutually exclusive. Graham would \"buy 200 cigar butts at half the price that they're worth, and through the market's movements [would] get wealthier doing that,\" says Smead.</p><p><blockquote>斯米德解释了巴菲特和芒格与传奇价值投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆的不同之处，以及为什么价值和增长并不相互排斥。斯米德说，格雷厄姆会“以一半的价格购买200个雪茄烟头，通过市场的波动，这样做会变得更富有”。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett, on the other hand, wants to \"buy a business that is growing over the decades at a time when other people are scared to death or don't understand why it's going to be such a good thing over the next 20 or 30 years — and then enjoy a double whammy, which is the re-evaluation.\" Smead explains this is \"the price that people are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings growth as well as the earnings number [itself] grows.\"</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，巴菲特希望“在其他人害怕得要死或不明白为什么它在未来20或30年内会是一件如此好的事情的时候，收购一家几十年来一直在增长的企业——然后享受双重打击，这就是重新评估。”斯米德解释说，这是“人们愿意为每一美元的收入增长以及收入数字本身的增长付出的代价。”</blockquote></p><p> Coca-Cola a risky bet</p><p><blockquote>可口可乐是一个冒险的赌注</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire first bought Coke stock from 1988 to 1989,scooping upover 23 million shares. WhenBuffett first started buying in the first quarter, many investors were still skittish from the Black Monday crash in October 1987. Buffett going big on the stock was considered risky, especially because it was not a typical Berkshire investment.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司于1988年至1989年首次购买可口可乐股票，买入了超过2300万股。当巴菲特在第一季度首次开始买入时，许多投资者仍对1987年10月黑色星期一的崩盘感到不安。巴菲特大力投资该股被认为是有风险的，特别是因为这不是典型的伯克希尔投资。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett defended the position in the 1988 annual Berkshire letter to shareholders with what would become one of hismost famous aphorisms. \"In 1988 we made major purchases of Federal Home Loan Mortgage ... and Coca Cola. We expect to hold these securities for a long time. In fact, when we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever,\" said Buffett.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在1988年伯克希尔致股东的年度信中用后来成为他最著名的格言之一来捍卫自己的立场。巴菲特表示，“1988年，我们主要购买了联邦住房贷款抵押贷款……以及可口可乐。我们期望长期持有这些证券。事实上，当我们拥有一些优秀管理水平很高的优秀企业时，我们最喜欢的持有期就是永远。”</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire more than quadrupled the position to 100 million shares by 1994 and to this day hasn't sold any. After two stock splits, the share count is now 400 million, but Berkshire's cost basis has remained $1.3 billion since 1994. As of year-end 2020, the investment was worth $21.5 billion, a return of 1550%, not including dividends. (Berkshire owns 9.3% of all Coke shares outstanding as of 2020 year-end.)</p><p><blockquote>到1994年，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的持股数量增加了四倍多，达到1亿股，但迄今为止尚未出售任何股票。经过两次股票分割后，股票数量现在为4亿股，但伯克希尔的成本基础自1994年以来一直保持在13亿美元。截至2020年底，该投资价值215亿美元，回报率为1550%，不包括股息。（截至2020年底，伯克希尔持有可口可乐所有已发行股票的9.3%。）</blockquote></p><p> But the 1987 crash hangover had faded for Buffett, and the world was changing. The Soviet empire was beginning to crumble, and the Berlin Wall was about to topple — which it finally did in November 1989.</p><p><blockquote>但对巴菲特来说，1987年崩盘的后遗症已经消退，世界正在发生变化。苏联帝国开始崩溃，柏林墙即将倒塌——它终于在1989年11月倒塌了。</blockquote></p><p> Smead relates his own experience as a broker in the 1980s to Buffett, saying, \"Buffett [was buying] Coca-Cola in '89 at about 18 times earnings. Well, I started in the investment business in 1980 as a stockbroker at Drexel Burnham Lambert. And my first stock that I was pitching to people was Coca-Cola — $30 a share. It was at six times earnings paying a 5% dividend. When Buffett bought in eight years later, he paid six times what I was trying to pay for it.\"</p><p><blockquote>Smead将自己在20世纪80年代作为经纪人的经历与巴菲特联系起来，他说：“巴菲特在89年以大约18倍的市盈率收购了可口可乐。嗯，我在1980年开始从事投资业务，在德雷克塞尔·伯纳姆·兰伯特公司做股票经纪人。我向人们推销的第一只股票是可口可乐——每股30美元。它的市盈率是6倍，股息为5%。八年后，当巴菲特买入时，他支付的价格是我试图支付的价格的六倍。”</blockquote></p><p> Smead explains how investor sentiment changed throughout the 1980s, as memories of the tumultuous 1970s faded and morphed into optimism over abull marketthat would become one of history's longest and most profitable.</p><p><blockquote>Smead解释了投资者情绪在整个20世纪80年代是如何变化的，因为对动荡的20世纪70年代的记忆逐渐消退，并转变为对牛市的乐观情绪，这将成为历史上最长、利润最高的牛市之一。</blockquote></p><p> \"I would be destitute and living in a tent in downtown Phoenix or Downtown Seattle if I kept pitching [Coca-Cola] stock because no one would buy it. Virtually, no one wanted it. Common stock ownership in 1981 was 8% of U.S. household assets — off the charts low. No one wanted that company,\" he says.</p><p><blockquote>“如果我一直推销（可口可乐）股票，我会一贫如洗，住在凤凰城市中心或西雅图市中心的帐篷里，因为没有人会买它。实际上，没有人想要它。1981年，普通股持有量占美国家庭资产的8%——低得离谱。没有人想要这家公司，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Smead explains how the changing political environment would also change the macro picture, providing new opportunities and markets for companies. \"[A] number of countries that used to be closed were going to open their doors. And the Coca-Cola corporation was going to be able to sell their beverages to a huge part of the population that they had never sold it to before. And in emerging markets and less wealthy countries, that 'clean, something to drink' was very valuable.\"</p><p><blockquote>Smead解释了不断变化的政治环境也将如何改变宏观形势，为公司提供新的机会和市场。“许多过去封闭的国家将敞开大门。可口可乐公司将能够向很大一部分以前从未向其销售过的人口出售他们的饮料。在新兴市场和不太富裕的国家，‘干净、有东西喝’是非常有价值的。”</blockquote></p><p> New investment opportunities post-COVID</p><p><blockquote>疫情后的新投资机会</blockquote></p><p> In the present day, the pandemic has thrown the macro picture into upheaval again, presenting investors with a new set of challenges. Smead assesses the demographic changes afoot and sets the stage for what he believes are new, secular investment opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>如今，疫情再次让宏观形势陷入动荡，给投资者带来了一系列新的挑战。Smead评估了正在发生的人口变化，并为他认为新的长期投资机会奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"We looked at the prior time when the 30- to 45-year-old-age group was dramatically larger than the previous group, the ones that preceded them. And that was the baby boomers taking the place of the silent generation in the 70s and 80s ... And we now have 90 million millennials — not too long from now, 95 million — that are going to take 65 million Gen Xers place in the 30- to 45-year-old age bracket. So that just creates a huge amount of demand for necessities,\" he says.</p><p><blockquote>“我们研究了之前的时间，当时30至45岁的年龄组比之前的年龄组大得多。那是婴儿潮一代取代了70年代和80年代沉默的一代……我们现在有9000万千禧一代——不久之后，9500万——他们将取代30至45岁年龄段的6500万x一代。因此，这只会创造对必需品的巨大需求，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Smead references research from Fundstrat Global Advisors that ranks the industries it expects millennials to disrupt as their spending eclipses that of boomers. \"At the top of that list is mortgage interest and finance charges. So long before it was in the news, long before it was popular to think about, we have been over-owning the homebuilders, knowing that we have years of building homes to make up the differential between demand for homes, that population will drive the existing homes for sale,\" Smead says.</p><p><blockquote>Smead引用了Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究，该研究对其预计千禧一代的支出超过婴儿潮一代时将颠覆的行业进行了排名。“排在首位的是抵押贷款利息和财务费用。早在它出现在新闻中之前，早在它流行之前，我们就已经过度拥有房屋建筑商，因为我们知道我们有多年的时间建造房屋来弥补房屋需求之间的差异，这些人口将推动现有房屋的出售，”斯米德说。</blockquote></p><p> Smead expectsstock pickers to outperformpassive investors over the coming decade. He also sees the footwear and household furnishings and equipment industries to outperform based on the same demographic trends relating to homebuilders.</p><p><blockquote>Smead预计未来十年选股者的表现将优于被动投资者。他还认为，基于与住宅建筑商相关的相同人口趋势，鞋类、家居家具和设备行业的表现将优于大盘。</blockquote></p><p> \"[T]he irony of the pandemic is: It's actually catalyzed one of our most important themes, which is the necessity spending of the millennial age group,\" says Smead.</p><p><blockquote>“这场流行病的讽刺之处在于：它实际上催化了我们最重要的主题之一，即千禧一代的必需品支出，”斯米德说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-warren-buffett-invested-in-coca-cola-165914721.html\">Yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-warren-buffett-invested-in-coca-cola-165914721.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198321864","content_text":"Coca-Cola (KO) is Warren Buffett's oldest stock position at Berkshire Hathaway. It's also providing some of the best returns, with the stock up over 2,000% since the Oracle of Omaha started buying it 33 years ago. Modern investors looking to navigate the next decade would be well-served to learn how Buffett made this profitable calculation.\nAt a recentYahoo Finance Plus webinar, Bill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management, began the lesson by explaining how Buffett manages growth and value in the Berkshire portfolio.\n\"To Buffett and [Charlie] Munger, all investing is value investing. They want to buy the bird in the hand, which is worth two in the bush. They want to buy something for well less than they think it's worth. So the ideal thing in investing is based on the mathematics of common stock investing. If you buy a stock for $30 and you pay cash, the worst thing that could possibly happen to you is it goes to zero. But the best thing that could possibly happen to you is exponential,\" says Smead.\nSmead explains how Buffett and Munger differ from legendary value investor Benjamin Graham and why value and growth aren't mutually exclusive. Graham would \"buy 200 cigar butts at half the price that they're worth, and through the market's movements [would] get wealthier doing that,\" says Smead.\nBuffett, on the other hand, wants to \"buy a business that is growing over the decades at a time when other people are scared to death or don't understand why it's going to be such a good thing over the next 20 or 30 years — and then enjoy a double whammy, which is the re-evaluation.\" Smead explains this is \"the price that people are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings growth as well as the earnings number [itself] grows.\"\nCoca-Cola a risky bet\nBerkshire first bought Coke stock from 1988 to 1989,scooping upover 23 million shares. WhenBuffett first started buying in the first quarter, many investors were still skittish from the Black Monday crash in October 1987. Buffett going big on the stock was considered risky, especially because it was not a typical Berkshire investment.\nBuffett defended the position in the 1988 annual Berkshire letter to shareholders with what would become one of hismost famous aphorisms. \"In 1988 we made major purchases of Federal Home Loan Mortgage ... and Coca Cola. We expect to hold these securities for a long time. In fact, when we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever,\" said Buffett.\nBerkshire more than quadrupled the position to 100 million shares by 1994 and to this day hasn't sold any. After two stock splits, the share count is now 400 million, but Berkshire's cost basis has remained $1.3 billion since 1994. As of year-end 2020, the investment was worth $21.5 billion, a return of 1550%, not including dividends. (Berkshire owns 9.3% of all Coke shares outstanding as of 2020 year-end.)\nBut the 1987 crash hangover had faded for Buffett, and the world was changing. The Soviet empire was beginning to crumble, and the Berlin Wall was about to topple — which it finally did in November 1989.\nSmead relates his own experience as a broker in the 1980s to Buffett, saying, \"Buffett [was buying] Coca-Cola in '89 at about 18 times earnings. Well, I started in the investment business in 1980 as a stockbroker at Drexel Burnham Lambert. And my first stock that I was pitching to people was Coca-Cola — $30 a share. It was at six times earnings paying a 5% dividend. When Buffett bought in eight years later, he paid six times what I was trying to pay for it.\"\nSmead explains how investor sentiment changed throughout the 1980s, as memories of the tumultuous 1970s faded and morphed into optimism over abull marketthat would become one of history's longest and most profitable.\n\"I would be destitute and living in a tent in downtown Phoenix or Downtown Seattle if I kept pitching [Coca-Cola] stock because no one would buy it. Virtually, no one wanted it. Common stock ownership in 1981 was 8% of U.S. household assets — off the charts low. No one wanted that company,\" he says.\nSmead explains how the changing political environment would also change the macro picture, providing new opportunities and markets for companies. \"[A] number of countries that used to be closed were going to open their doors. And the Coca-Cola corporation was going to be able to sell their beverages to a huge part of the population that they had never sold it to before. And in emerging markets and less wealthy countries, that 'clean, something to drink' was very valuable.\"\nNew investment opportunities post-COVID\nIn the present day, the pandemic has thrown the macro picture into upheaval again, presenting investors with a new set of challenges. Smead assesses the demographic changes afoot and sets the stage for what he believes are new, secular investment opportunities.\n\"We looked at the prior time when the 30- to 45-year-old-age group was dramatically larger than the previous group, the ones that preceded them. And that was the baby boomers taking the place of the silent generation in the 70s and 80s ... And we now have 90 million millennials — not too long from now, 95 million — that are going to take 65 million Gen Xers place in the 30- to 45-year-old age bracket. So that just creates a huge amount of demand for necessities,\" he says.\nSmead references research from Fundstrat Global Advisors that ranks the industries it expects millennials to disrupt as their spending eclipses that of boomers. \"At the top of that list is mortgage interest and finance charges. So long before it was in the news, long before it was popular to think about, we have been over-owning the homebuilders, knowing that we have years of building homes to make up the differential between demand for homes, that population will drive the existing homes for sale,\" Smead says.\nSmead expectsstock pickers to outperformpassive investors over the coming decade. He also sees the footwear and household furnishings and equipment industries to outperform based on the same demographic trends relating to homebuilders.\n\"[T]he irony of the pandemic is: It's actually catalyzed one of our most important themes, which is the necessity spending of the millennial age group,\" says Smead.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1139,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/103658824"}
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