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2021-05-04

It's ok

Is The US Economy A Virtual Reality?<blockquote>美国经济是虚拟现实吗？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":106225065,"tweetId":"106225065","gmtCreate":1620126562557,"gmtModify":1634207631871,"author":{"id":3582017454478915,"idStr":"3582017454478915","authorId":3582017454478915,"authorIdStr":"3582017454478915","name":"khaw93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b0c78b68eadd5a003e685f98d447d07","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>It's ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>It's ok</body></html>","text":"It's ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106225065","repostId":1197943594,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197943594","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620124996,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197943594?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 18:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The US Economy A Virtual Reality?<blockquote>美国经济是虚拟现实吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197943594","media":"zerohedge","summary":"An owner of the bar explained to me that he has been closed for a full year and yet miraculously sti","content":"An owner of the bar explained to me that he has been closed for a full year and yet miraculously still survives, thanks to vast infusions of government money to cover his rent and upkeep and sustain essential employees. He is looking forward to reopening but ishaving a hard time finding employees. Many have moved to Florida. Others, he said, “are happy to live off government money rather than work.”<blockquote>酒吧的一位老板向我解释说，他已经关门整整一年了，但奇迹般地仍然活了下来，这要归功于政府注入的大量资金来支付他的租金和维护费用，并维持重要的员工。他期待着重新开业，但很难找到员工。许多人已经搬到了佛罗里达。他说，其他人“很乐意靠政府的钱生活，而不是工作。”</blockquote> His main puzzle is how it can be true that the government has the resources to sustain so many businesses in a full year of lockdowns. The money is falling like manna from heaven.<blockquote>他的主要困惑是，政府怎么可能真的有资源在一整年的封锁中维持这么多企业。钱像吗哪一样从天而降。</blockquote> “From all my years in business, every instinct tells me that this can’t be right. It might work for a little while but someone has to pay these bills. There is no magic money tree out there to achieve such things.” The tree might not be magic but it does exist.<blockquote>“从我多年的商业生涯来看，每一种直觉都告诉我，这不可能是对的。它可能会在一段时间内奏效，但必须有人支付这些账单。没有神奇的摇钱树可以实现这些事情。”这棵树可能不是魔法，但它确实存在。</blockquote> It’s called the Federal Reserve.<blockquote>它被称为美联储。</blockquote> Here is the alarming chart of the broadest definition of national money, which reveals anunprecedented increase in the money supplyover the last year.<blockquote>这是一张令人震惊的图表，显示了国家货币最广泛的定义，它揭示了一个货币供应量空前增加在过去一年里。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b33ab7f69ce98140d3c8541540f2ef5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"191\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The effects of such a thing can be&nbsp;difficult to trace. And much depends on factors outside the Fed’s control. Even the attempt to reign in the long-run effects could fail. Even so, the short-term effects, combined with unprecedented increases in government spending, have been to create the appearance of near full recovery.<blockquote>这种事情的影响可能很难追踪。这在很大程度上取决于美联储无法控制的因素。即使是控制长期影响的尝试也可能失败。即便如此，短期影响，加上政府支出前所未有的增加，造成了接近全面复苏的表象。</blockquote> By the aggregated data alone, the US economy seems almost back to normal.Gross Domestic Product is higher now than pre-pandemic and poised to roar much higher.<blockquote>仅从综合数据来看，美国经济似乎几乎恢复正常。现在的国内生产总值高于疫情之前，并且有望飙升得更高。</blockquote> “What’s amazing,”&nbsp;writes&nbsp;the&nbsp; Wall Street Journal, “is that U.S. output is nearly what it was in the fourth-quarter of 2019 even with payrolls being about 5% smaller. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4660a898da3119fd8c2e1fe52ec0d676\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Consumer spending on durable goods is through the roof with a 41% increase for the quarter.<blockquote>“太神奇了，”华尔街日报尽管就业人数减少了约5%，但美国产出几乎与2019年第四季度持平。本季度消费者在耐用品上的支出激增41%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c109802e57d3dabd71e6122ef30cc88\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"156\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Private residential investment, which is to say consumer spending on housing, has blown past the point at which the last housing bubble blew up.<blockquote>私人住宅投资，即消费者在住房上的支出，已经超过了上一次房地产泡沫破裂的时候。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c33caf9df98a0feeafa86ca8bcea97c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Is Valhalla really around the corner? New riches? What’s the downside?<blockquote>瓦尔哈拉真的就在眼前吗？新财富？有什么坏处？</blockquote> Following a lockdown collapse in prices, the consumer price index is pointing toward inflationary signs. The Everyday Price Index is&nbsp;climbing&nbsp;at an annualized double-digit rates.<blockquote>在封锁导致价格暴跌后，消费者价格指数显示出通胀迹象。日常价格指数正以年化两位数的速度攀升。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a23206631fdd85121a1cd11843355ac6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"176\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">No question that much ofthis “growth” is fueled by historically high increases in government spending,producing charts we’ve never seen before.<blockquote>毫无疑问这种“增长”是由政府支出的历史高位增长推动的，制作我们从未见过的图表。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3534eb09f534aa3ac9615ee5f6299582\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">These increases were not paid out of some resource reserve sitting in DC.They are paid by astronomical increases in borrowing.Here are the increases in the public debt to GDP ratio.<blockquote>这些增长并不是从DC的一些资源储备中支付的。他们通过借贷的天文数字增长来支付。以下是公共债务与GDP比率的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebf7c01e4270b2641020471739787110\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What all this aggregate data misses is the huge dislocations, distortions, and outright destruction that occurred because of the unprecedented use of extreme lockdowns in 2020. TheNew York Times&nbsp;provides a helpful analysis of existing sectors relative to what might have happened outside the pandemic lockdowns.<blockquote>所有这些汇总数据都忽略了由于2020年前所未有地使用极端封锁而发生的巨大混乱、扭曲和彻底破坏。The纽约时报提供了与疫情封锁之外可能发生的情况相关的现有部门的有用分析。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/249fca0e9740cccfe032a35635a8d811\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thus are some sectors of the US economy booming to new highs, while others are still in deep depression.The sectors that were locked down (entertainment, art, food, hotels, recreation), and those other sectors indirectly affected by lockdowns (exports, transportation, energy) are still wallowing in misery, having been battered by compulsory shutdowns that wrecked so many business models or otherwise forced them onto the government dole.<blockquote>因此，美国经济的一些部门正在蓬勃发展，达到新高，而另一些部门仍处于深度萧条之中。被封锁的行业（娱乐、艺术、食品、酒店、休闲）以及间接受到封锁影响的其他行业（出口、运输、能源）仍在痛苦中挣扎，遭受了强制关闭的打击，这些关闭摧毁了如此多的商业模式或以其他方式迫使它们接受政府救济。</blockquote> One of the figures that fascinates me is the one on health care. It is still down 5.9% from what it might have been without the pandemic. Historians of the future will surely be amazed by such data. In a pandemic with such tremendous sickness and death, one would expect spending on health care to rocket higher than ever before.<blockquote>让我着迷的一个数字是关于医疗保健的。与没有大流行的情况相比，仍下降了5.9%。未来的历史学家肯定会对这样的数据感到惊讶。在一个疾病和死亡如此之多的大流行中，人们预计医疗保健支出将比以往任何时候都高。</blockquote> Instead, what we see in health care is a collapse of fully 18% in the worst months of the pandemic, a statement that sounds ridiculous in the saying.<blockquote>相反，我们在医疗保健领域看到的是，在疫情最糟糕的几个月里，医疗保健崩溃了整整18%，这种说法听起来很荒谬。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c109802e57d3dabd71e6122ef30cc88\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"156\"><blockquote></blockquote> What this illustrates is one of the least-talked-about aspects of government policy over the past year: state government’s interventions in the medical system that essentially reserved most if not all hospital space for Covid patients. Routine medical care and “elective surgery” was put on hold. Dentistry services&nbsp;collapsed a year ago by 70%.<blockquote>这说明了过去一年政府政策中最少被谈论的方面之一：州政府对医疗系统的干预，基本上为Covid患者保留了大部分（如果不是全部）医院空间。常规医疗和“择期手术”被搁置。牙科服务一年前下降了70%。</blockquote> This meant missed cancer screenings, routine checkups, and normal doctor’s visits, not only because people were afraid but also because medical services faced a brutal form of central planning that had never previously happened. Thus do we get the most perverse results one can imagine: a collapse of spending on health care during a pandemic. It’s hard to isolate one piece of data that best captures the folly of government pandemic policy but perhaps this one is it.<blockquote>这意味着错过癌症筛查、常规检查和正常的医生就诊，不仅因为人们害怕，还因为医疗服务面临着前所未有的残酷形式的中央计划。因此，我们得到了人们能想象到的最反常的结果：疫情期间医疗保健支出的崩溃。很难找出一个数据最能捕捉到政府疫情政策的愚蠢，但也许这一个就是它。</blockquote> It’s impossible to know precisely what the future portends for all these unprecedented policy shocks over the last year, from money supply and spending bonanzas to lockdowns to sky-high debt accumulation.But because a thing called cause-and-effect still operates in this world – we do not live in virtual reality – it seems wise to look at the seemingly great aggregate data with a gravely skeptical eye. We might be in the midst of the calm before the real storm hits.<blockquote>对于过去一年所有这些前所未有的政策冲击，从货币供应和支出繁荣到封锁再到天价债务积累，我们不可能准确知道未来会发生什么。但因为一种叫做因果的东西仍然在这个世界上运作——我们不是生活在虚拟现实中——所以用严重怀疑的眼光看待看似巨大的汇总数据似乎是明智的。在真正的风暴来袭之前，我们可能正处于平静之中。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is The US Economy A Virtual Reality?<blockquote>美国经济是虚拟现实吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The US Economy A Virtual Reality?<blockquote>美国经济是虚拟现实吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-05-04 18:43\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAn owner of the bar explained to me that he has been closed for a full year and yet miraculously still survives, thanks to vast infusions of government money to cover his rent and upkeep and sustain essential employees. He is looking forward to reopening but ishaving a hard time finding employees. Many have moved to Florida. Others, he said, “are happy to live off government money rather than work.”<blockquote>酒吧的一位老板向我解释说，他已经关门整整一年了，但奇迹般地仍然活了下来，这要归功于政府注入的大量资金来支付他的租金和维护费用，并维持重要的员工。他期待着重新开业，但很难找到员工。许多人已经搬到了佛罗里达。他说，其他人“很乐意靠政府的钱生活，而不是工作。”</blockquote> His main puzzle is how it can be true that the government has the resources to sustain so many businesses in a full year of lockdowns. The money is falling like manna from heaven.<blockquote>他的主要困惑是，政府怎么可能真的有资源在一整年的封锁中维持这么多企业。钱像吗哪一样从天而降。</blockquote> “From all my years in business, every instinct tells me that this can’t be right. It might work for a little while but someone has to pay these bills. There is no magic money tree out there to achieve such things.” The tree might not be magic but it does exist.<blockquote>“从我多年的商业生涯来看，每一种直觉都告诉我，这不可能是对的。它可能会在一段时间内奏效，但必须有人支付这些账单。没有神奇的摇钱树可以实现这些事情。”这棵树可能不是魔法，但它确实存在。</blockquote> It’s called the Federal Reserve.<blockquote>它被称为美联储。</blockquote> Here is the alarming chart of the broadest definition of national money, which reveals anunprecedented increase in the money supplyover the last year.<blockquote>这是一张令人震惊的图表，显示了国家货币最广泛的定义，它揭示了一个货币供应量空前增加在过去一年里。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b33ab7f69ce98140d3c8541540f2ef5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"191\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The effects of such a thing can be&nbsp;difficult to trace. And much depends on factors outside the Fed’s control. Even the attempt to reign in the long-run effects could fail. Even so, the short-term effects, combined with unprecedented increases in government spending, have been to create the appearance of near full recovery.<blockquote>这种事情的影响可能很难追踪。这在很大程度上取决于美联储无法控制的因素。即使是控制长期影响的尝试也可能失败。即便如此，短期影响，加上政府支出前所未有的增加，造成了接近全面复苏的表象。</blockquote> By the aggregated data alone, the US economy seems almost back to normal.Gross Domestic Product is higher now than pre-pandemic and poised to roar much higher.<blockquote>仅从综合数据来看，美国经济似乎几乎恢复正常。现在的国内生产总值高于疫情之前，并且有望飙升得更高。</blockquote> “What’s amazing,”&nbsp;writes&nbsp;the&nbsp; Wall Street Journal, “is that U.S. output is nearly what it was in the fourth-quarter of 2019 even with payrolls being about 5% smaller. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4660a898da3119fd8c2e1fe52ec0d676\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Consumer spending on durable goods is through the roof with a 41% increase for the quarter.<blockquote>“太神奇了，”华尔街日报尽管就业人数减少了约5%，但美国产出几乎与2019年第四季度持平。本季度消费者在耐用品上的支出激增41%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c109802e57d3dabd71e6122ef30cc88\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"156\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Private residential investment, which is to say consumer spending on housing, has blown past the point at which the last housing bubble blew up.<blockquote>私人住宅投资，即消费者在住房上的支出，已经超过了上一次房地产泡沫破裂的时候。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c33caf9df98a0feeafa86ca8bcea97c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Is Valhalla really around the corner? New riches? What’s the downside?<blockquote>瓦尔哈拉真的就在眼前吗？新财富？有什么坏处？</blockquote> Following a lockdown collapse in prices, the consumer price index is pointing toward inflationary signs. The Everyday Price Index is&nbsp;climbing&nbsp;at an annualized double-digit rates.<blockquote>在封锁导致价格暴跌后，消费者价格指数显示出通胀迹象。日常价格指数正以年化两位数的速度攀升。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a23206631fdd85121a1cd11843355ac6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"176\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">No question that much ofthis “growth” is fueled by historically high increases in government spending,producing charts we’ve never seen before.<blockquote>毫无疑问这种“增长”是由政府支出的历史高位增长推动的，制作我们从未见过的图表。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3534eb09f534aa3ac9615ee5f6299582\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">These increases were not paid out of some resource reserve sitting in DC.They are paid by astronomical increases in borrowing.Here are the increases in the public debt to GDP ratio.<blockquote>这些增长并不是从DC的一些资源储备中支付的。他们通过借贷的天文数字增长来支付。以下是公共债务与GDP比率的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebf7c01e4270b2641020471739787110\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What all this aggregate data misses is the huge dislocations, distortions, and outright destruction that occurred because of the unprecedented use of extreme lockdowns in 2020. TheNew York Times&nbsp;provides a helpful analysis of existing sectors relative to what might have happened outside the pandemic lockdowns.<blockquote>所有这些汇总数据都忽略了由于2020年前所未有地使用极端封锁而发生的巨大混乱、扭曲和彻底破坏。The纽约时报提供了与疫情封锁之外可能发生的情况相关的现有部门的有用分析。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/249fca0e9740cccfe032a35635a8d811\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thus are some sectors of the US economy booming to new highs, while others are still in deep depression.The sectors that were locked down (entertainment, art, food, hotels, recreation), and those other sectors indirectly affected by lockdowns (exports, transportation, energy) are still wallowing in misery, having been battered by compulsory shutdowns that wrecked so many business models or otherwise forced them onto the government dole.<blockquote>因此，美国经济的一些部门正在蓬勃发展，达到新高，而另一些部门仍处于深度萧条之中。被封锁的行业（娱乐、艺术、食品、酒店、休闲）以及间接受到封锁影响的其他行业（出口、运输、能源）仍在痛苦中挣扎，遭受了强制关闭的打击，这些关闭摧毁了如此多的商业模式或以其他方式迫使它们接受政府救济。</blockquote> One of the figures that fascinates me is the one on health care. It is still down 5.9% from what it might have been without the pandemic. Historians of the future will surely be amazed by such data. In a pandemic with such tremendous sickness and death, one would expect spending on health care to rocket higher than ever before.<blockquote>让我着迷的一个数字是关于医疗保健的。与没有大流行的情况相比，仍下降了5.9%。未来的历史学家肯定会对这样的数据感到惊讶。在一个疾病和死亡如此之多的大流行中，人们预计医疗保健支出将比以往任何时候都高。</blockquote> Instead, what we see in health care is a collapse of fully 18% in the worst months of the pandemic, a statement that sounds ridiculous in the saying.<blockquote>相反，我们在医疗保健领域看到的是，在疫情最糟糕的几个月里，医疗保健崩溃了整整18%，这种说法听起来很荒谬。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c109802e57d3dabd71e6122ef30cc88\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"156\"><blockquote></blockquote> What this illustrates is one of the least-talked-about aspects of government policy over the past year: state government’s interventions in the medical system that essentially reserved most if not all hospital space for Covid patients. Routine medical care and “elective surgery” was put on hold. Dentistry services&nbsp;collapsed a year ago by 70%.<blockquote>这说明了过去一年政府政策中最少被谈论的方面之一：州政府对医疗系统的干预，基本上为Covid患者保留了大部分（如果不是全部）医院空间。常规医疗和“择期手术”被搁置。牙科服务一年前下降了70%。</blockquote> This meant missed cancer screenings, routine checkups, and normal doctor’s visits, not only because people were afraid but also because medical services faced a brutal form of central planning that had never previously happened. Thus do we get the most perverse results one can imagine: a collapse of spending on health care during a pandemic. It’s hard to isolate one piece of data that best captures the folly of government pandemic policy but perhaps this one is it.<blockquote>这意味着错过癌症筛查、常规检查和正常的医生就诊，不仅因为人们害怕，还因为医疗服务面临着前所未有的残酷形式的中央计划。因此，我们得到了人们能想象到的最反常的结果：疫情期间医疗保健支出的崩溃。很难找出一个数据最能捕捉到政府疫情政策的愚蠢，但也许这一个就是它。</blockquote> It’s impossible to know precisely what the future portends for all these unprecedented policy shocks over the last year, from money supply and spending bonanzas to lockdowns to sky-high debt accumulation.But because a thing called cause-and-effect still operates in this world – we do not live in virtual reality – it seems wise to look at the seemingly great aggregate data with a gravely skeptical eye. We might be in the midst of the calm before the real storm hits.<blockquote>对于过去一年所有这些前所未有的政策冲击，从货币供应和支出繁荣到封锁再到天价债务积累，我们不可能准确知道未来会发生什么。但因为一种叫做因果的东西仍然在这个世界上运作——我们不是生活在虚拟现实中——所以用严重怀疑的眼光看待看似巨大的汇总数据似乎是明智的。在真正的风暴来袭之前，我们可能正处于平静之中。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-economy-virtual-reality\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-economy-virtual-reality","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197943594","content_text":"An owner of the bar explained to me that he has been closed for a full year and yet miraculously still survives, thanks to vast infusions of government money to cover his rent and upkeep and sustain essential employees. He is looking forward to reopening but ishaving a hard time finding employees. Many have moved to Florida. Others, he said, “are happy to live off government money rather than work.”\nHis main puzzle is how it can be true that the government has the resources to sustain so many businesses in a full year of lockdowns. The money is falling like manna from heaven.\n\n“From all my years in business, every instinct tells me that this can’t be right. It might work for a little while but someone has to pay these bills. There is no magic money tree out there to achieve such things.”\n\nThe tree might not be magic but it does exist.\nIt’s called the Federal Reserve.\nHere is the alarming chart of the broadest definition of national money, which reveals anunprecedented increase in the money supplyover the last year.\nThe effects of such a thing can be difficult to trace. And much depends on factors outside the Fed’s control. Even the attempt to reign in the long-run effects could fail. Even so, the short-term effects, combined with unprecedented increases in government spending, have been to create the appearance of near full recovery.\nBy the aggregated data alone, the US economy seems almost back to normal.Gross Domestic Product is higher now than pre-pandemic and poised to roar much higher.\n\n “What’s amazing,” writes the \n Wall Street Journal, “is that U.S. output is nearly what it was in the fourth-quarter of 2019 even with payrolls being about 5% smaller.\n\nConsumer spending on durable goods is through the roof with a 41% increase for the quarter.\nPrivate residential investment, which is to say consumer spending on housing, has blown past the point at which the last housing bubble blew up.\nIs Valhalla really around the corner? New riches? What’s the downside?\nFollowing a lockdown collapse in prices, the consumer price index is pointing toward inflationary signs. The Everyday Price Index is climbing at an annualized double-digit rates.\nNo question that much ofthis “growth” is fueled by historically high increases in government spending,producing charts we’ve never seen before.\nThese increases were not paid out of some resource reserve sitting in DC.They are paid by astronomical increases in borrowing.Here are the increases in the public debt to GDP ratio.\nWhat all this aggregate data misses is the huge dislocations, distortions, and outright destruction that occurred because of the unprecedented use of extreme lockdowns in 2020. TheNew York Times provides a helpful analysis of existing sectors relative to what might have happened outside the pandemic lockdowns.\nThus are some sectors of the US economy booming to new highs, while others are still in deep depression.The sectors that were locked down (entertainment, art, food, hotels, recreation), and those other sectors indirectly affected by lockdowns (exports, transportation, energy) are still wallowing in misery, having been battered by compulsory shutdowns that wrecked so many business models or otherwise forced them onto the government dole.\nOne of the figures that fascinates me is the one on health care. It is still down 5.9% from what it might have been without the pandemic. Historians of the future will surely be amazed by such data. In a pandemic with such tremendous sickness and death, one would expect spending on health care to rocket higher than ever before.\nInstead, what we see in health care is a collapse of fully 18% in the worst months of the pandemic, a statement that sounds ridiculous in the saying.\n\nWhat this illustrates is one of the least-talked-about aspects of government policy over the past year: state government’s interventions in the medical system that essentially reserved most if not all hospital space for Covid patients. Routine medical care and “elective surgery” was put on hold. Dentistry services collapsed a year ago by 70%.\nThis meant missed cancer screenings, routine checkups, and normal doctor’s visits, not only because people were afraid but also because medical services faced a brutal form of central planning that had never previously happened. Thus do we get the most perverse results one can imagine: a collapse of spending on health care during a pandemic. It’s hard to isolate one piece of data that best captures the folly of government pandemic policy but perhaps this one is it.\nIt’s impossible to know precisely what the future portends for all these unprecedented policy shocks over the last year, from money supply and spending bonanzas to lockdowns to sky-high debt accumulation.But because a thing called cause-and-effect still operates in this world – we do not live in virtual reality – it seems wise to look at the seemingly great aggregate data with a gravely skeptical eye. We might be in the midst of the calm before the real storm hits.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":597,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/106225065"}