oOxfsOo
2021-05-04
like n commen pls [得意]
J.P. Morgan's short-term look finds picks, pans in telecom/pay TV<blockquote>摩根大通的短期展望在电信/付费电视领域找到了选择和平底锅</blockquote>
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Morgan's short-term look finds picks, pans in telecom/pay TV<blockquote>摩根大通的短期展望在电信/付费电视领域找到了选择和平底锅</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143573807","media":"seeking alpha","summary":"J.P. Morgan's \"Spectrum of Opportunity\" note offers a chance to re-rank telecom and pay television s","content":"<p><ul><li>J.P. Morgan's \"Spectrum of Opportunity\" note offers a chance to re-rank telecom and pay television stocks for May performance -updating its longer-term ratings with the prospect of benefiting from shorter-term catalysts (including such things as seasonality).</li><li>And turning to its top picks for May yields several names worthy of some catalyst-based attention (based on a points system it assigns to sort out how to weigh alternatives).</li><li>One is Comcast(NASDAQ:CMCSA), which is likely to keep seeing strong cable trends along with re-opening data points for its parks and film operations. It likes the stock long-term relative to megacap peers AT&T(NYSE:T)and Verizon(NYSE:VZ)\"due to strong fundamentals at cable and an improving backdrop at NBC/Sky.\" The broader market is concerned about growing broadband competition, but Comcast's trends are staying strong driven by acquisition and churn as it grows share.</li><li>Meanwhile, theme park demand is ramping, with open parks breaking even during the first quarter, and there's upside to NBC/consolidated EBITDA for 2021. It has a $62 price target.</li><li>On a slightly different time frame is T-Mobile (TMUS; reporting after the close tomorrow): It's the firm's best long-term idea (based on substantial operating efficiencies and cash flow growth for coming years), and while it's not looking for a big Q1 beat, it's still a short-term pick.</li><li>\"After a strong quarter by AT&T but soft one from Verizon on postpaid phone adds, we see upside to our postpaid phone add estimate of 400K with consensus at 450K,\" J.P. Morgan says. It's not expecting guidance increases, but there's \"ample opportunity for growth in fixed wireless, enterprise and rural markets, and the company highlighted $60B of buyback potential from 2023-2025 (we model ~$40B over that time frame due to spectrum purchases).\"</li><li>Another highly rated short-term pick is Charter Communications(NASDAQ:CHTR). Itsfirst-quarter report showed solid broadband and customer relationship growth, and despite competition fears in broadband, Charter is well positioned to keep growing penetration \"driven by its market-growth strategy and new home builds - both greenfield and fill-ins.\"</li><li>It's staying a top idea across J.P. Morgan's coverage on further broadband share gains, ongoing EBITDA growth (margin expansion), strong capital returns and ramping free cash flow generation.</li><li>Turning to its least favorite names on the spectrum, there's Cable One(NYSE:CABO), where multiples are already very high compared to public peers. Preliminary results showed EBITDA strength, unsurprising due to residential momentum, operating efficiency and synergy realization. But it's struggling with a valuation of 16.8x 2022 enterprise value/EBITDA and a 3.2% free cash flow yield, vs. pure-play peers like Charter and Altice USA (ATUS; EV/EBITDA multiples of 10.8x and 8.6x respectively).</li><li>Another least-favorite is Gogo(NASDAQ:GOGO)- where it's modeling an entire convertible issue converting to equity, diluting existing shareholders. Total revenues are set to improve after bottoming in Q2 2020, but it's still \"wary\" as it sees a 5G network buildout pushed out to 2022, allowing for a competitor to come in. That and the potential dilution are set to weigh on the shares for the \"foreseeable future.\"</li><li>And another name in disfavor is Lumen Technologies(NYSE:LUMN), which saw a heavy run-up in January after being heavily shorted. That squeeze is \"unsustainable,\" J.P. Morgan says. And it's wary about the loss of subsidies for rural connectivity. \"We struggle to become positive on the name due to falling CAF/RDOF (Connect America Fund/Rural Digital Opportunity Fund) support in 2022, where Lumen will lose nearly all of its current ~$500m CAF revenue from 2021 to 2022, at ~100% EBITDA flow-thru.\"</li><li>Lumen is still spending to enable the homes it got in the CAF-II auction, but J.P. Morgan says capital expenditures should be shifted to other parts of the business rather than just going to free cash flow generation.</li></ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根大通的“机会范围”报告提供了一个根据5月份表现对电信和付费电视股进行重新排名的机会——更新其长期评级,并有望受益于短期催化剂(包括季节性等)。</li><li>翻到5月份的首选,会发现几个值得基于催化剂的关注的名字(基于它分配的积分系统,以确定如何权衡替代方案)。</li><li>其中之一是康卡斯特(纳斯达克:CMCSA),该公司可能会继续看到强劲的有线电视趋势,并重新开放其公园和电影业务的数据点。相对于大型股同行AT&T(NYSE:T)和Verizon(NYSE:VZ),它长期看好该股,“由于有线电视的强劲基本面和NBC/Sky的改善背景。”更广泛的市场对日益激烈的宽带竞争感到担忧,但随着份额的增长,康卡斯特的趋势在收购和流失的推动下保持强劲。</li><li>与此同时,主题公园的需求正在增加,开放公园在第一季度实现收支平衡,NBC/2021年综合EBITDA还有上升空间。它的目标价为62美元。</li><li>T-Mobile(TMUS;明天收盘后报告)的时间框架略有不同:这是该公司最好的长期想法(基于未来几年的大幅运营效率和现金流增长),虽然它并不寻求第一季度的大幅增长,但它仍然是一个短期选择。</li><li>摩根大通表示:“在AT&T季度表现强劲,但Verizon在后付费电话新增方面表现疲软之后,我们认为后付费电话新增预期为40万部,市场普遍预期为45万部。”它预计指引不会增加,但“固定无线、企业和农村市场有充足的增长机会,该公司强调了2023年至2025年60B美元的回购潜力(由于频谱购买,我们在该时间范围内模拟了约40B美元)”。</li><li>另一个评价很高的短期选择是Charter Communications(纳斯达克:CHTR)。其第一季度报告显示宽带和客户关系稳健增长,尽管宽带领域存在竞争担忧,但Charter处于有利地位,“在其市场增长战略和新建住宅建设(包括绿地和填充住宅)的推动下”,可以保持不断增长的渗透率。</li><li>在摩根大通关于宽带份额进一步增长、持续EBITDA增长(利润率扩张)、强劲的资本回报和增加自由现金流生成的报道中,它仍然是首要想法。</li><li>谈到最不受欢迎的名字,有Cable One(纽约证券交易所股票代码:CABO),与上市同行相比,其市盈率已经非常高。初步结果显示EBITDA强劲,由于住宅发展势头、运营效率和协同效应的实现,这并不奇怪。但与Charter和Altice USA等纯同行相比,该公司的2022年企业价值/EBITDA估值为16.8倍,自由现金流收益率为3.2%(ATUS;EV/EBITDA倍数分别为10.8倍和8.6倍)。</li><li>另一个最不受欢迎的是Gogo(纳斯达克股票代码:GOGO)——它正在对整个可转换债券转换为股权进行建模,从而稀释现有股东。总收入在2020年第二季度触底后将有所改善,但它仍然“谨慎”,因为它认为5G网络建设将推迟到2022年,从而允许竞争对手进入。这一点以及潜在的稀释将在“可预见的未来”给股价带来压力。</li><li>另一个不受欢迎的名字是Lumen Technologies(纽约证券交易所股票代码:LUMN),该公司在被严重做空后在1月份大幅上涨。摩根大通表示,这种挤压是“不可持续的”。它担心失去对农村连接的补贴。“由于2022年CAF/RDOF(连接美国基金/农村数字机会基金)支持下降,我们很难对这个名字持积极态度,从2021年到2022年,Lumen将失去目前约5亿美元的CAF收入,约为100%EBITDA流通。”</li><li>Lumen仍在花钱购买在CAF-II拍卖中获得的房屋,但摩根大通表示,资本支出应该转移到业务的其他部分,而不仅仅是产生自由现金流。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>J.P. Morgan's short-term look finds picks, pans in telecom/pay TV<blockquote>摩根大通的短期展望在电信/付费电视领域找到了选择和平底锅</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJ.P. Morgan's short-term look finds picks, pans in telecom/pay TV<blockquote>摩根大通的短期展望在电信/付费电视领域找到了选择和平底锅</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-04 14:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul><li>J.P. Morgan's \"Spectrum of Opportunity\" note offers a chance to re-rank telecom and pay television stocks for May performance -updating its longer-term ratings with the prospect of benefiting from shorter-term catalysts (including such things as seasonality).</li><li>And turning to its top picks for May yields several names worthy of some catalyst-based attention (based on a points system it assigns to sort out how to weigh alternatives).</li><li>One is Comcast(NASDAQ:CMCSA), which is likely to keep seeing strong cable trends along with re-opening data points for its parks and film operations. It likes the stock long-term relative to megacap peers AT&T(NYSE:T)and Verizon(NYSE:VZ)\"due to strong fundamentals at cable and an improving backdrop at NBC/Sky.\" The broader market is concerned about growing broadband competition, but Comcast's trends are staying strong driven by acquisition and churn as it grows share.</li><li>Meanwhile, theme park demand is ramping, with open parks breaking even during the first quarter, and there's upside to NBC/consolidated EBITDA for 2021. It has a $62 price target.</li><li>On a slightly different time frame is T-Mobile (TMUS; reporting after the close tomorrow): It's the firm's best long-term idea (based on substantial operating efficiencies and cash flow growth for coming years), and while it's not looking for a big Q1 beat, it's still a short-term pick.</li><li>\"After a strong quarter by AT&T but soft one from Verizon on postpaid phone adds, we see upside to our postpaid phone add estimate of 400K with consensus at 450K,\" J.P. Morgan says. It's not expecting guidance increases, but there's \"ample opportunity for growth in fixed wireless, enterprise and rural markets, and the company highlighted $60B of buyback potential from 2023-2025 (we model ~$40B over that time frame due to spectrum purchases).\"</li><li>Another highly rated short-term pick is Charter Communications(NASDAQ:CHTR). Itsfirst-quarter report showed solid broadband and customer relationship growth, and despite competition fears in broadband, Charter is well positioned to keep growing penetration \"driven by its market-growth strategy and new home builds - both greenfield and fill-ins.\"</li><li>It's staying a top idea across J.P. Morgan's coverage on further broadband share gains, ongoing EBITDA growth (margin expansion), strong capital returns and ramping free cash flow generation.</li><li>Turning to its least favorite names on the spectrum, there's Cable One(NYSE:CABO), where multiples are already very high compared to public peers. Preliminary results showed EBITDA strength, unsurprising due to residential momentum, operating efficiency and synergy realization. But it's struggling with a valuation of 16.8x 2022 enterprise value/EBITDA and a 3.2% free cash flow yield, vs. pure-play peers like Charter and Altice USA (ATUS; EV/EBITDA multiples of 10.8x and 8.6x respectively).</li><li>Another least-favorite is Gogo(NASDAQ:GOGO)- where it's modeling an entire convertible issue converting to equity, diluting existing shareholders. Total revenues are set to improve after bottoming in Q2 2020, but it's still \"wary\" as it sees a 5G network buildout pushed out to 2022, allowing for a competitor to come in. That and the potential dilution are set to weigh on the shares for the \"foreseeable future.\"</li><li>And another name in disfavor is Lumen Technologies(NYSE:LUMN), which saw a heavy run-up in January after being heavily shorted. That squeeze is \"unsustainable,\" J.P. Morgan says. And it's wary about the loss of subsidies for rural connectivity. \"We struggle to become positive on the name due to falling CAF/RDOF (Connect America Fund/Rural Digital Opportunity Fund) support in 2022, where Lumen will lose nearly all of its current ~$500m CAF revenue from 2021 to 2022, at ~100% EBITDA flow-thru.\"</li><li>Lumen is still spending to enable the homes it got in the CAF-II auction, but J.P. Morgan says capital expenditures should be shifted to other parts of the business rather than just going to free cash flow generation.</li></ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根大通的“机会范围”报告提供了一个根据5月份表现对电信和付费电视股进行重新排名的机会——更新其长期评级,并有望受益于短期催化剂(包括季节性等)。</li><li>翻到5月份的首选,会发现几个值得基于催化剂的关注的名字(基于它分配的积分系统,以确定如何权衡替代方案)。</li><li>其中之一是康卡斯特(纳斯达克:CMCSA),该公司可能会继续看到强劲的有线电视趋势,并重新开放其公园和电影业务的数据点。相对于大型股同行AT&T(NYSE:T)和Verizon(NYSE:VZ),它长期看好该股,“由于有线电视的强劲基本面和NBC/Sky的改善背景。”更广泛的市场对日益激烈的宽带竞争感到担忧,但随着份额的增长,康卡斯特的趋势在收购和流失的推动下保持强劲。</li><li>与此同时,主题公园的需求正在增加,开放公园在第一季度实现收支平衡,NBC/2021年综合EBITDA还有上升空间。它的目标价为62美元。</li><li>T-Mobile(TMUS;明天收盘后报告)的时间框架略有不同:这是该公司最好的长期想法(基于未来几年的大幅运营效率和现金流增长),虽然它并不寻求第一季度的大幅增长,但它仍然是一个短期选择。</li><li>摩根大通表示:“在AT&T季度表现强劲,但Verizon在后付费电话新增方面表现疲软之后,我们认为后付费电话新增预期为40万部,市场普遍预期为45万部。”它预计指引不会增加,但“固定无线、企业和农村市场有充足的增长机会,该公司强调了2023年至2025年60B美元的回购潜力(由于频谱购买,我们在该时间范围内模拟了约40B美元)”。</li><li>另一个评价很高的短期选择是Charter Communications(纳斯达克:CHTR)。其第一季度报告显示宽带和客户关系稳健增长,尽管宽带领域存在竞争担忧,但Charter处于有利地位,“在其市场增长战略和新建住宅建设(包括绿地和填充住宅)的推动下”,可以保持不断增长的渗透率。</li><li>在摩根大通关于宽带份额进一步增长、持续EBITDA增长(利润率扩张)、强劲的资本回报和增加自由现金流生成的报道中,它仍然是首要想法。</li><li>谈到最不受欢迎的名字,有Cable One(纽约证券交易所股票代码:CABO),与上市同行相比,其市盈率已经非常高。初步结果显示EBITDA强劲,由于住宅发展势头、运营效率和协同效应的实现,这并不奇怪。但与Charter和Altice USA等纯同行相比,该公司的2022年企业价值/EBITDA估值为16.8倍,自由现金流收益率为3.2%(ATUS;EV/EBITDA倍数分别为10.8倍和8.6倍)。</li><li>另一个最不受欢迎的是Gogo(纳斯达克股票代码:GOGO)——它正在对整个可转换债券转换为股权进行建模,从而稀释现有股东。总收入在2020年第二季度触底后将有所改善,但它仍然“谨慎”,因为它认为5G网络建设将推迟到2022年,从而允许竞争对手进入。这一点以及潜在的稀释将在“可预见的未来”给股价带来压力。</li><li>另一个不受欢迎的名字是Lumen Technologies(纽约证券交易所股票代码:LUMN),该公司在被严重做空后在1月份大幅上涨。摩根大通表示,这种挤压是“不可持续的”。它担心失去对农村连接的补贴。“由于2022年CAF/RDOF(连接美国基金/农村数字机会基金)支持下降,我们很难对这个名字持积极态度,从2021年到2022年,Lumen将失去目前约5亿美元的CAF收入,约为100%EBITDA流通。”</li><li>Lumen仍在花钱购买在CAF-II拍卖中获得的房屋,但摩根大通表示,资本支出应该转移到业务的其他部分,而不仅仅是产生自由现金流。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3689866-jp-morgans-short-term-look-finds-picks-pans-in-telecompay-tv\">seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3689866-jp-morgans-short-term-look-finds-picks-pans-in-telecompay-tv","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143573807","content_text":"J.P. Morgan's \"Spectrum of Opportunity\" note offers a chance to re-rank telecom and pay television stocks for May performance -updating its longer-term ratings with the prospect of benefiting from shorter-term catalysts (including such things as seasonality).And turning to its top picks for May yields several names worthy of some catalyst-based attention (based on a points system it assigns to sort out how to weigh alternatives).One is Comcast(NASDAQ:CMCSA), which is likely to keep seeing strong cable trends along with re-opening data points for its parks and film operations. It likes the stock long-term relative to megacap peers AT&T(NYSE:T)and Verizon(NYSE:VZ)\"due to strong fundamentals at cable and an improving backdrop at NBC/Sky.\" The broader market is concerned about growing broadband competition, but Comcast's trends are staying strong driven by acquisition and churn as it grows share.Meanwhile, theme park demand is ramping, with open parks breaking even during the first quarter, and there's upside to NBC/consolidated EBITDA for 2021. It has a $62 price target.On a slightly different time frame is T-Mobile (TMUS; reporting after the close tomorrow): It's the firm's best long-term idea (based on substantial operating efficiencies and cash flow growth for coming years), and while it's not looking for a big Q1 beat, it's still a short-term pick.\"After a strong quarter by AT&T but soft one from Verizon on postpaid phone adds, we see upside to our postpaid phone add estimate of 400K with consensus at 450K,\" J.P. Morgan says. It's not expecting guidance increases, but there's \"ample opportunity for growth in fixed wireless, enterprise and rural markets, and the company highlighted $60B of buyback potential from 2023-2025 (we model ~$40B over that time frame due to spectrum purchases).\"Another highly rated short-term pick is Charter Communications(NASDAQ:CHTR). Itsfirst-quarter report showed solid broadband and customer relationship growth, and despite competition fears in broadband, Charter is well positioned to keep growing penetration \"driven by its market-growth strategy and new home builds - both greenfield and fill-ins.\"It's staying a top idea across J.P. Morgan's coverage on further broadband share gains, ongoing EBITDA growth (margin expansion), strong capital returns and ramping free cash flow generation.Turning to its least favorite names on the spectrum, there's Cable One(NYSE:CABO), where multiples are already very high compared to public peers. Preliminary results showed EBITDA strength, unsurprising due to residential momentum, operating efficiency and synergy realization. But it's struggling with a valuation of 16.8x 2022 enterprise value/EBITDA and a 3.2% free cash flow yield, vs. pure-play peers like Charter and Altice USA (ATUS; EV/EBITDA multiples of 10.8x and 8.6x respectively).Another least-favorite is Gogo(NASDAQ:GOGO)- where it's modeling an entire convertible issue converting to equity, diluting existing shareholders. Total revenues are set to improve after bottoming in Q2 2020, but it's still \"wary\" as it sees a 5G network buildout pushed out to 2022, allowing for a competitor to come in. That and the potential dilution are set to weigh on the shares for the \"foreseeable future.\"And another name in disfavor is Lumen Technologies(NYSE:LUMN), which saw a heavy run-up in January after being heavily shorted. That squeeze is \"unsustainable,\" J.P. Morgan says. And it's wary about the loss of subsidies for rural connectivity. \"We struggle to become positive on the name due to falling CAF/RDOF (Connect America Fund/Rural Digital Opportunity Fund) support in 2022, where Lumen will lose nearly all of its current ~$500m CAF revenue from 2021 to 2022, at ~100% EBITDA flow-thru.\"Lumen is still spending to enable the homes it got in the CAF-II auction, but J.P. Morgan says capital expenditures should be shifted to other parts of the business rather than just going to free cash flow generation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":20,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/106638588"}
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