Keeping the bullets and waitin_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-05-04

Keeping the bullets and waiting patiently. Comment and like please. 😊

Opinion: If you ‘sell in May,’ don’t go away<blockquote>观点：如果你“五月卖出”，不要离开</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":106697059,"tweetId":"106697059","gmtCreate":1620108366871,"gmtModify":1634207735934,"author":{"id":3580887956620934,"idStr":"3580887956620934","authorId":3580887956620934,"authorIdStr":"3580887956620934","name":"Piggu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c03ebb3404c09146ca26d6e53de20e7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":18,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Keeping the bullets and waiting patiently. Comment and like please. 😊</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Keeping the bullets and waiting patiently. Comment and like please. 😊</body></html>","text":"Keeping the bullets and waiting patiently. Comment and like please. 😊","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106697059","repostId":1140379495,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140379495","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620092540,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140379495?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 09:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: If you ‘sell in May,’ don’t go away<blockquote>观点：如果你“五月卖出”，不要离开</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140379495","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"There’s no point leaving money on the table if you’re willing to take a more active roleShould you d","content":"There’s no point leaving money on the table if you’re willing to take a more active role<blockquote>如果你愿意扮演更积极的角色，把钱留在桌面上是没有意义的</blockquote>Should you dump all the stock market funds from your 401(k) and IRA on the first of May, go away, and come back again for Hallowe’en?<blockquote>您是否应该在5月1日抛售401(k)和IRA中的所有股市资金，离开，然后在万圣节再次回来？</blockquote>Definitely, says an old Wall Street adage.<blockquote>华尔街的一句古老格言说，当然。</blockquote>Definitely not, say most financial advisers.<blockquote>大多数财务顾问表示，绝对不会。</blockquote>As for the evidence of history? It’s more ambiguous. If the numbers say anything, maybe it’s that “sell in May and go away” is only half right. Since 1900, someone who sold in May actually could have retired earlier and with more money—but only if they hung around and waited to buy their stocks back during the usual summer panic.<blockquote>至于历史的证据？比较暧昧。如果数字能说明什么的话，也许就是“五月卖出走人”只说对了一半。自1900年以来，在5月份抛售股票的人实际上可以更早退休并拥有更多的钱——但前提是他们在通常的夏季恐慌期间等待回购股票。</blockquote>Obvious note: If you want an easy life, ignore all trading advice from the Wall Street crowd. Set some basic rules—asset allocation, clearly established sell signals and so on—and stick to them.<blockquote>显而易见的注意事项：如果你想要轻松的生活，忽略华尔街人群的所有交易建议。设定一些基本规则——资产配置、明确建立的卖出信号等等——并坚持下去。</blockquote>On the other hand, there’s no point leaving money on the table if you’re willing to take a more active role.<blockquote>另一方面，如果你愿意扮演更积极的角色，把钱留在桌面上是没有意义的。</blockquote>The Wall Street phrase “sell in May” dates back at least to the 1930s. Originally it seems to have started in Great Britain, where the rhyme went “sell in May, go away, and don’t come back till St Leger’s Day”—meaning a famous horse race that takes place in mid-September. The theory was that the stock market’s returns over the summer months are usually so dismal that there’s really no point being in the market.<blockquote>华尔街的短语“五月卖出”至少可以追溯到20世纪30年代。最初它似乎始于英国，那里的押韵是“五月卖掉，走开，直到圣莱杰节才回来”——意思是九月中旬举行的著名赛马。该理论认为，夏季股市的回报通常如此惨淡，以至于没有必要进入市场。</blockquote>The updated version of this adage calls it “the Hallowe’en Effect,” and stretches the hiatus from May 1 to October 31: A full six months.<blockquote>这句格言的更新版本评级称之为“万圣节效应”，并将间隔时间从5月1日延长到10月31日：整整六个月。</blockquote>It sounds like superstitious nonsense, but there is some remarkable evidence for it.One exhaustive academic studylooked at all the available stock market data from around the world going as far back as 1693 (coincidentally, the time of the Salem witch trials in Massachusetts—make of this what you will).<blockquote>这听起来像是迷信的胡说八道，但有一些值得注意的证据。一项详尽的学术研究查看了自1693年以来世界各地所有可用的股票市场数据（巧合的是，这是马萨诸塞州塞勒姆女巫审判的时间——随你怎么说）。</blockquote>“In none of the 65 countries for which we have total returns and short term interest rates available—with the exception of Mauritius — can we reject a Sell in May effect,” report researchers Cherry Zhang and Ben Jacobsen. “Summer risk premiums are not only not significantly positive, they are in most cases not even marginally positive. In 45 countries the excess returns during summer have been negative, and in seven significantly so,” they write. In other words: Historically, all the stock market’s returns have come during the winter months. During the summer months, typically, the stock market’s returns haven’t been any better than the returns on keeping your money in the bank.<blockquote>研究人员Cherry Zhang和Ben Jacobsen报告称：“在我们拥有总回报和短期利率的65个国家中，除毛里求斯外，我们都无法拒绝5月份的抛售。”他们写道：“夏季风险溢价不仅不显着为正，在大多数情况下甚至不是略微为正。在45个国家，夏季的超额回报为负，其中7个国家的超额回报显着为负。”换句话说：从历史上看，股市的所有回报都发生在冬季。通常，在夏季的几个月里，股市的回报并不比将钱存入银行的回报好多少。</blockquote>(Oh, unless you’re living in Mauritius.)<blockquote>（哦，除非你住在毛里求斯。）</blockquote>Smart money mavens have a number of pushbacks to all this. They’ll point out that this is somewhat random, and makes no logical sense. They’ll warn that likely gains don’t really compensate for the trading costs, the potential taxes (in a taxable account). And they’ll add that you risk missing out if the market rises.<blockquote>聪明的理财专家对这一切有很多反对意见。他们会指出这有点随机，没有逻辑意义。他们会警告说，可能的收益并不能真正补偿交易成本和潜在的税收（在应税账户中）。他们会补充说，如果市场上涨，你就有错过的风险。</blockquote>Furthermore, they’ll say, once you and I get in the habit of getting into the market and then out of it again, most of us will simply mess it up. We’ll get back in too early, or too late, or not at all.<blockquote>此外，他们会说，一旦你和我养成了进入市场然后又退出的习惯，我们大多数人都会把它搞砸。我们会回来得太早，或者太晚，或者根本不回来。</blockquote>All reasonable points.<blockquote>所有合理的观点。</blockquote>So the advice, “leave it alone,” is not wrong.<blockquote>所以“别管它”的建议并没有错。</blockquote>But…the mathematical criticism of “sell in May” is partly off-beam. That’s because critics assume we sell on May 1 and go away, and don’t come back until October 31.<blockquote>但是……对“五月卖出”的数学批评部分是不正确的。这是因为批评者认为我们在5月1日卖出然后离开，直到10月31日才回来。</blockquote>I’ve looked through the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;DJIA,+0.70%&nbsp;going back to 1900 and something amazing leaps out.<blockquote>我回顾了道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯的历史，自1900年以来上涨了0.70%，出现了一些惊人的情况。</blockquote>Ignore where the market ends up on October 31. The real opportunity occurs at some point during the six month period.<blockquote>忽略10月31日市场的最终走向。真正的机会出现在六个月期间的某个时候。</blockquote>There hasalmost alwaysbeen a “summer selloff.” In 105 out of 120 years, or 88% of the time, the stock market has posted a decline at some stage in the six months after May 1.<blockquote>有几乎总是是“夏季抛售”。120年中有105年（即88%的时间）股市在5月1日之后六个月的某个阶段出现过下跌。</blockquote>So in almost 9 years out of 10, someone who sold their stock funds at the start of May was able to buy them back more cheaply during the next six months.<blockquote>因此，几乎十有八九，在5月初出售股票基金的人能够在接下来的六个月内以更便宜的价格回购股票基金。</blockquote>The average decline is 8%. That’s measured from May through the bottom of the slump.<blockquote>平均降幅为8%。这是从五月到衰退底部的衡量标准。</blockquote>In more than half of all years, the Dow Jones has fallen at least 5% during the summer lull, and in nearly one year out of three it has fallen by double digits.<blockquote>在超过一半的年份中，道琼斯指数在夏季平静期间下跌了至少5%，而在近三年的年份中，道琼斯指数下跌了两位数。</blockquote>These, of course, included such greatest hits as 2008 (a crash of 37%), 2002 (28%), 1987 (24%), 1907 (32%), and, of course, our old friend the catastrophe of 1929-32.&nbsp; Nearly all the terrible carnage of 1929-1932 took place during the summer months.<blockquote>当然，这些包括2008年（37%的崩盘）、2002年（28%）、1987年（24%）、1907年（32%）等最大的打击，当然还有我们的老朋友1929-1932年的灾难。1929-1932年几乎所有可怕的大屠杀都发生在夏季。</blockquote>Weird, but true.<blockquote>奇怪，但却是真的。</blockquote>An average selloff of 8% is not small potatoes. Over 20 years, someone who timed such a move perfectly every time would earn a remarkable 400% return.<blockquote>平均8%的抛售并不是小事。20多年来，每次都能完美把握时机的人将获得400%的惊人回报。</blockquote>If the stock market’s past is any guide to the future, the really clever move would be for us to sell our SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETFSPY,+0.22%,Vanguard Total Stock Market Index FundVTSMX,+0.20%or similar this Monday…and then hang around for the sale. We’d buy back our stock fund back either on Hallowe’en, or when the market has fallen, say, 5%—whichever comes first.<blockquote>如果股市的过去是未来的指南，那么真正明智的举措是我们在本周一出售我们的SPDR标普500 ETFSPY，+0.22%，先锋总股票市场指数基金VTSMX，+0.20%或类似的基金……然后等待出售。我们会在万圣节或市场下跌5%时回购我们的股票基金——以先到者为准。</blockquote>All the years we got a bargain would more than compensate for the few years when there wasn’t one.<blockquote>我们得到便宜货的那些年足以弥补没有便宜货的那几年。</blockquote>On the other hand, if the stock market’s past isn’t any guide to the future, then pretty much everything our financial adviser tells us is nonsense anyway.<blockquote>另一方面，如果股市的过去不能成为未来的指南，那么我们的财务顾问告诉我们的几乎所有事情都是无稽之谈。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: If you ‘sell in May,’ don’t go away<blockquote>观点：如果你“五月卖出”，不要离开</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: If you ‘sell in May,’ don’t go away<blockquote>观点：如果你“五月卖出”，不要离开</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarket Wacth2021-05-04 09:42\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere’s no point leaving money on the table if you’re willing to take a more active role<blockquote>如果你愿意扮演更积极的角色，把钱留在桌面上是没有意义的</blockquote>Should you dump all the stock market funds from your 401(k) and IRA on the first of May, go away, and come back again for Hallowe’en?<blockquote>您是否应该在5月1日抛售401(k)和IRA中的所有股市资金，离开，然后在万圣节再次回来？</blockquote>Definitely, says an old Wall Street adage.<blockquote>华尔街的一句古老格言说，当然。</blockquote>Definitely not, say most financial advisers.<blockquote>大多数财务顾问表示，绝对不会。</blockquote>As for the evidence of history? It’s more ambiguous. If the numbers say anything, maybe it’s that “sell in May and go away” is only half right. Since 1900, someone who sold in May actually could have retired earlier and with more money—but only if they hung around and waited to buy their stocks back during the usual summer panic.<blockquote>至于历史的证据？比较暧昧。如果数字能说明什么的话，也许就是“五月卖出走人”只说对了一半。自1900年以来，在5月份抛售股票的人实际上可以更早退休并拥有更多的钱——但前提是他们在通常的夏季恐慌期间等待回购股票。</blockquote>Obvious note: If you want an easy life, ignore all trading advice from the Wall Street crowd. Set some basic rules—asset allocation, clearly established sell signals and so on—and stick to them.<blockquote>显而易见的注意事项：如果你想要轻松的生活，忽略华尔街人群的所有交易建议。设定一些基本规则——资产配置、明确建立的卖出信号等等——并坚持下去。</blockquote>On the other hand, there’s no point leaving money on the table if you’re willing to take a more active role.<blockquote>另一方面，如果你愿意扮演更积极的角色，把钱留在桌面上是没有意义的。</blockquote>The Wall Street phrase “sell in May” dates back at least to the 1930s. Originally it seems to have started in Great Britain, where the rhyme went “sell in May, go away, and don’t come back till St Leger’s Day”—meaning a famous horse race that takes place in mid-September. The theory was that the stock market’s returns over the summer months are usually so dismal that there’s really no point being in the market.<blockquote>华尔街的短语“五月卖出”至少可以追溯到20世纪30年代。最初它似乎始于英国，那里的押韵是“五月卖掉，走开，直到圣莱杰节才回来”——意思是九月中旬举行的著名赛马。该理论认为，夏季股市的回报通常如此惨淡，以至于没有必要进入市场。</blockquote>The updated version of this adage calls it “the Hallowe’en Effect,” and stretches the hiatus from May 1 to October 31: A full six months.<blockquote>这句格言的更新版本评级称之为“万圣节效应”，并将间隔时间从5月1日延长到10月31日：整整六个月。</blockquote>It sounds like superstitious nonsense, but there is some remarkable evidence for it.One exhaustive academic studylooked at all the available stock market data from around the world going as far back as 1693 (coincidentally, the time of the Salem witch trials in Massachusetts—make of this what you will).<blockquote>这听起来像是迷信的胡说八道，但有一些值得注意的证据。一项详尽的学术研究查看了自1693年以来世界各地所有可用的股票市场数据（巧合的是，这是马萨诸塞州塞勒姆女巫审判的时间——随你怎么说）。</blockquote>“In none of the 65 countries for which we have total returns and short term interest rates available—with the exception of Mauritius — can we reject a Sell in May effect,” report researchers Cherry Zhang and Ben Jacobsen. “Summer risk premiums are not only not significantly positive, they are in most cases not even marginally positive. In 45 countries the excess returns during summer have been negative, and in seven significantly so,” they write. In other words: Historically, all the stock market’s returns have come during the winter months. During the summer months, typically, the stock market’s returns haven’t been any better than the returns on keeping your money in the bank.<blockquote>研究人员Cherry Zhang和Ben Jacobsen报告称：“在我们拥有总回报和短期利率的65个国家中，除毛里求斯外，我们都无法拒绝5月份的抛售。”他们写道：“夏季风险溢价不仅不显着为正，在大多数情况下甚至不是略微为正。在45个国家，夏季的超额回报为负，其中7个国家的超额回报显着为负。”换句话说：从历史上看，股市的所有回报都发生在冬季。通常，在夏季的几个月里，股市的回报并不比将钱存入银行的回报好多少。</blockquote>(Oh, unless you’re living in Mauritius.)<blockquote>（哦，除非你住在毛里求斯。）</blockquote>Smart money mavens have a number of pushbacks to all this. They’ll point out that this is somewhat random, and makes no logical sense. They’ll warn that likely gains don’t really compensate for the trading costs, the potential taxes (in a taxable account). And they’ll add that you risk missing out if the market rises.<blockquote>聪明的理财专家对这一切有很多反对意见。他们会指出这有点随机，没有逻辑意义。他们会警告说，可能的收益并不能真正补偿交易成本和潜在的税收（在应税账户中）。他们会补充说，如果市场上涨，你就有错过的风险。</blockquote>Furthermore, they’ll say, once you and I get in the habit of getting into the market and then out of it again, most of us will simply mess it up. We’ll get back in too early, or too late, or not at all.<blockquote>此外，他们会说，一旦你和我养成了进入市场然后又退出的习惯，我们大多数人都会把它搞砸。我们会回来得太早，或者太晚，或者根本不回来。</blockquote>All reasonable points.<blockquote>所有合理的观点。</blockquote>So the advice, “leave it alone,” is not wrong.<blockquote>所以“别管它”的建议并没有错。</blockquote>But…the mathematical criticism of “sell in May” is partly off-beam. That’s because critics assume we sell on May 1 and go away, and don’t come back until October 31.<blockquote>但是……对“五月卖出”的数学批评部分是不正确的。这是因为批评者认为我们在5月1日卖出然后离开，直到10月31日才回来。</blockquote>I’ve looked through the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;DJIA,+0.70%&nbsp;going back to 1900 and something amazing leaps out.<blockquote>我回顾了道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯的历史，自1900年以来上涨了0.70%，出现了一些惊人的情况。</blockquote>Ignore where the market ends up on October 31. The real opportunity occurs at some point during the six month period.<blockquote>忽略10月31日市场的最终走向。真正的机会出现在六个月期间的某个时候。</blockquote>There hasalmost alwaysbeen a “summer selloff.” In 105 out of 120 years, or 88% of the time, the stock market has posted a decline at some stage in the six months after May 1.<blockquote>有几乎总是是“夏季抛售”。120年中有105年（即88%的时间）股市在5月1日之后六个月的某个阶段出现过下跌。</blockquote>So in almost 9 years out of 10, someone who sold their stock funds at the start of May was able to buy them back more cheaply during the next six months.<blockquote>因此，几乎十有八九，在5月初出售股票基金的人能够在接下来的六个月内以更便宜的价格回购股票基金。</blockquote>The average decline is 8%. That’s measured from May through the bottom of the slump.<blockquote>平均降幅为8%。这是从五月到衰退底部的衡量标准。</blockquote>In more than half of all years, the Dow Jones has fallen at least 5% during the summer lull, and in nearly one year out of three it has fallen by double digits.<blockquote>在超过一半的年份中，道琼斯指数在夏季平静期间下跌了至少5%，而在近三年的年份中，道琼斯指数下跌了两位数。</blockquote>These, of course, included such greatest hits as 2008 (a crash of 37%), 2002 (28%), 1987 (24%), 1907 (32%), and, of course, our old friend the catastrophe of 1929-32.&nbsp; Nearly all the terrible carnage of 1929-1932 took place during the summer months.<blockquote>当然，这些包括2008年（37%的崩盘）、2002年（28%）、1987年（24%）、1907年（32%）等最大的打击，当然还有我们的老朋友1929-1932年的灾难。1929-1932年几乎所有可怕的大屠杀都发生在夏季。</blockquote>Weird, but true.<blockquote>奇怪，但却是真的。</blockquote>An average selloff of 8% is not small potatoes. Over 20 years, someone who timed such a move perfectly every time would earn a remarkable 400% return.<blockquote>平均8%的抛售并不是小事。20多年来，每次都能完美把握时机的人将获得400%的惊人回报。</blockquote>If the stock market’s past is any guide to the future, the really clever move would be for us to sell our SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETFSPY,+0.22%,Vanguard Total Stock Market Index FundVTSMX,+0.20%or similar this Monday…and then hang around for the sale. We’d buy back our stock fund back either on Hallowe’en, or when the market has fallen, say, 5%—whichever comes first.<blockquote>如果股市的过去是未来的指南，那么真正明智的举措是我们在本周一出售我们的SPDR标普500 ETFSPY，+0.22%，先锋总股票市场指数基金VTSMX，+0.20%或类似的基金……然后等待出售。我们会在万圣节或市场下跌5%时回购我们的股票基金——以先到者为准。</blockquote>All the years we got a bargain would more than compensate for the few years when there wasn’t one.<blockquote>我们得到便宜货的那些年足以弥补没有便宜货的那几年。</blockquote>On the other hand, if the stock market’s past isn’t any guide to the future, then pretty much everything our financial adviser tells us is nonsense anyway.<blockquote>另一方面，如果股市的过去不能成为未来的指南，那么我们的财务顾问告诉我们的几乎所有事情都是无稽之谈。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-you-sell-in-may-dont-go-away-11620070962?mod=home-page\">Market Wacth</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51fb9fb4bb9a78041d2403ab1f31481b","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-you-sell-in-may-dont-go-away-11620070962?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140379495","content_text":"There’s no point leaving money on the table if you’re willing to take a more active roleShould you dump all the stock market funds from your 401(k) and IRA on the first of May, go away, and come back again for Hallowe’en?Definitely, says an old Wall Street adage.Definitely not, say most financial advisers.As for the evidence of history? It’s more ambiguous. If the numbers say anything, maybe it’s that “sell in May and go away” is only half right. Since 1900, someone who sold in May actually could have retired earlier and with more money—but only if they hung around and waited to buy their stocks back during the usual summer panic.Obvious note: If you want an easy life, ignore all trading advice from the Wall Street crowd. Set some basic rules—asset allocation, clearly established sell signals and so on—and stick to them.On the other hand, there’s no point leaving money on the table if you’re willing to take a more active role.The Wall Street phrase “sell in May” dates back at least to the 1930s. Originally it seems to have started in Great Britain, where the rhyme went “sell in May, go away, and don’t come back till St Leger’s Day”—meaning a famous horse race that takes place in mid-September. The theory was that the stock market’s returns over the summer months are usually so dismal that there’s really no point being in the market.The updated version of this adage calls it “the Hallowe’en Effect,” and stretches the hiatus from May 1 to October 31: A full six months.It sounds like superstitious nonsense, but there is some remarkable evidence for it.One exhaustive academic studylooked at all the available stock market data from around the world going as far back as 1693 (coincidentally, the time of the Salem witch trials in Massachusetts—make of this what you will).“In none of the 65 countries for which we have total returns and short term interest rates available—with the exception of Mauritius — can we reject a Sell in May effect,” report researchers Cherry Zhang and Ben Jacobsen. “Summer risk premiums are not only not significantly positive, they are in most cases not even marginally positive. In 45 countries the excess returns during summer have been negative, and in seven significantly so,” they write. In other words: Historically, all the stock market’s returns have come during the winter months. During the summer months, typically, the stock market’s returns haven’t been any better than the returns on keeping your money in the bank.(Oh, unless you’re living in Mauritius.)Smart money mavens have a number of pushbacks to all this. They’ll point out that this is somewhat random, and makes no logical sense. They’ll warn that likely gains don’t really compensate for the trading costs, the potential taxes (in a taxable account). And they’ll add that you risk missing out if the market rises.Furthermore, they’ll say, once you and I get in the habit of getting into the market and then out of it again, most of us will simply mess it up. We’ll get back in too early, or too late, or not at all.All reasonable points.So the advice, “leave it alone,” is not wrong.But…the mathematical criticism of “sell in May” is partly off-beam. That’s because critics assume we sell on May 1 and go away, and don’t come back until October 31.I’ve looked through the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.70% going back to 1900 and something amazing leaps out.Ignore where the market ends up on October 31. The real opportunity occurs at some point during the six month period.There hasalmost alwaysbeen a “summer selloff.” In 105 out of 120 years, or 88% of the time, the stock market has posted a decline at some stage in the six months after May 1.So in almost 9 years out of 10, someone who sold their stock funds at the start of May was able to buy them back more cheaply during the next six months.The average decline is 8%. That’s measured from May through the bottom of the slump.In more than half of all years, the Dow Jones has fallen at least 5% during the summer lull, and in nearly one year out of three it has fallen by double digits.These, of course, included such greatest hits as 2008 (a crash of 37%), 2002 (28%), 1987 (24%), 1907 (32%), and, of course, our old friend the catastrophe of 1929-32.  Nearly all the terrible carnage of 1929-1932 took place during the summer months.Weird, but true.An average selloff of 8% is not small potatoes. Over 20 years, someone who timed such a move perfectly every time would earn a remarkable 400% return.If the stock market’s past is any guide to the future, the really clever move would be for us to sell our SPDR S&P 500 ETFSPY,+0.22%,Vanguard Total Stock Market Index FundVTSMX,+0.20%or similar this Monday…and then hang around for the sale. We’d buy back our stock fund back either on Hallowe’en, or when the market has fallen, say, 5%—whichever comes first.All the years we got a bargain would more than compensate for the few years when there wasn’t one.On the other hand, if the stock market’s past isn’t any guide to the future, then pretty much everything our financial adviser tells us is nonsense anyway.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":60,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/106697059"}