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@独立分析师：“五穷”没有出现，“六绝”仍需谨慎

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&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 近期一些专家总是宣扬“如期变盘”，满屏的看多看好，我担心未来会给他们当头一棒。在金融市场，“谨慎”永远不会错，但“冒进”容易被打脸。消息面一直会被市场解读并反应，解读消息面本身就存在不确定性，所以，只有市场的技术面才是最高效最真实的。</p><p>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;美国的政策面消息面，很难出现新的“利好”，近期所谓的“利好”，大多都是在抗通胀和救市而已。美股未来上涨的基本动力不会来自政策面和消息面。只能靠企业和行业的基本面和指数的技术面。参考下图，纳指和纳指期货，本轮反弹的绿框区域，其力度明显弱于四月初至四月中旬的红框区域。表明做多资金追涨力度明显不足，与政策面刺激预期减弱，消息面数据无明显超预期改善和企业行业基本面无超预期利好有很大关系。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37252a285e726d7f77b5b0d6d8f64680\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1426\"><span>纳指技术面对比图</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54880ad42bb071128a610da73b1d3f76\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1347\"><span>纳指期货技术面对比图</span></p><p>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 长期看，未来半年以上至一年，仍然预期纳指会冲击15500（之前的分析文章已经详解），未来一两个月内，对于14000点的历史高点，恐怕仍然会经历几次“冲击-压制-回撤-再冲击-突破-回踩-再突破”的复杂过程。所以，“谨慎”一直没错，“冒进”容易被打脸。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ &nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/YMmain\">$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ &nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HSImain\">$恒生指数主连(HSImain)$ &nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CNmain\">$A50指数主连(CNmain)$ &nbsp;</a></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>&nbsp; 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