MagPie
2021-05-31
They need to scale their product ranges a little
Apple Stock Could Drop 30% If iPhones Sales Slow, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称，如果iPhone销售放缓，苹果股价可能下跌30%</blockquote>
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Sometimes, as was the case with the 2020 launch of the i","content":"<p>Apple updates the iPhone lineup every fall. Sometimes, as was the case with the 2020 launch of the iPhone 12, the anticipation is high, and demand soars. In the March quarter, the first results which included three full months of availability of the new 5G-capable phones, Apple iPhone sales soared 66%. And strong demand should continue at least for a few more quarters.</p><p><blockquote>苹果每年秋天都会更新iPhone阵容。有时，就像2020年iPhone 12发布的情况一样，人们的预期很高，需求飙升。在3月份的第一个季度，包括新的5G手机上市整整三个月的第一个结果，苹果iPhone的销量飙升了66%。强劲的需求应该至少还会持续几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> But looming ahead is the fall launch of the follow-up to the iPhone 12—the iPhone 12s (or maybe the iPhone 13.) Unlike the situation a year ago with the iPhone 12, there is not much buzz about the next round of iPhones, which seem likely to see only incremental improvements. That could set the stage for softening demand.</p><p><blockquote>但即将在秋季发布的是iPhone 12的后续产品——iPhone 12s（或者iPhone 13。）与一年前iPhone 12的情况不同，下一轮iPhone并没有太多的传言，似乎只会看到渐进式的改进。这可能为需求疲软奠定基础。</blockquote></p><p> That’s basically the thesis laid out Friday by New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu, who cut his rating on Apple (ticker: AAPL) stock to Sell from Neutral. Anticipating that earnings estimates will fall from here, he sees potential for a 20% to 30% drop in the stock, and trims his target price to $90 from $135.</p><p><blockquote>这基本上是New Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu周五提出的论点，他将苹果（股票代码：AAPL）股票的评级从中性下调至卖出。预计盈利预期将从这里下降，他认为该股有可能下跌20%至30%，并将目标价从135美元下调至90美元。</blockquote></p><p> Ferragu’s view is that the iPhone 12 really did spur a “supercycle,” with the strongest sales growth for Apple phones since the iPhone 6 launch in 2014.But he thinks the current sales spurt is “rejuvenating” the installed base, and potentially hampering demand for the next phones. He sees risks from the arrival of new phones with more limited improvements—and he also expects consumers will more generally spend less on electronics as the economy reopens. In short, Ferragu thinks the reception force the fall launch could be “lukewarm-to-cold.”</p><p><blockquote>Ferragu的观点是，iPhone 12确实刺激了一个“超级周期”，这是自2014年iPhone 6推出以来苹果手机最强劲的销售增长。但他认为，目前的销售激增正在“振兴”安装基础，并可能阻碍对下一代手机的需求。他看到了改进更有限的新手机的到来带来的风险，他还预计随着经济重新开放，消费者在电子产品上的支出将更普遍地减少。简而言之，费拉古认为秋季发布会的接待力量可能会“不冷不热”。</blockquote></p><p> Ferragu notes that the Street consensus calls for iPhone unit sales of 234 million in the September 2022 fiscal year, which would be up 2% from the consensus view for fiscal 2021. But he says that would imply that this fall’s phones will be the most appealing in the company’s history—and he finds that unlikely. The analyst projects shipments will be at least 15% below the current consensus—in the 180 million to 200 million range. And he thinks the company will miss Street estimates for both the September and December quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Ferragu指出，华尔街对2022年9月财年iPhone销量评级的共识为2.34亿部，比2021财年的共识增长2%。但他表示，这意味着今年秋天的手机将是该公司历史上最具吸引力的手机——他认为这不太可能。分析师预计出货量将比当前共识至少低15%——在1.8亿至2亿之间。他认为该公司9月和12月季度的业绩都将低于华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the bearish call, Apple stock on last Friday have only inched down 0.5% to $124.61.</p><p><blockquote>尽管看涨期权看跌，苹果股价上周五仅小幅下跌0.5%至124.61美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Could Drop 30% If iPhones Sales Slow, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称，如果iPhone销售放缓，苹果股价可能下跌30%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Could Drop 30% If iPhones Sales Slow, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称，如果iPhone销售放缓，苹果股价可能下跌30%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-31 17:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple updates the iPhone lineup every fall. Sometimes, as was the case with the 2020 launch of the iPhone 12, the anticipation is high, and demand soars. In the March quarter, the first results which included three full months of availability of the new 5G-capable phones, Apple iPhone sales soared 66%. And strong demand should continue at least for a few more quarters.</p><p><blockquote>苹果每年秋天都会更新iPhone阵容。有时，就像2020年iPhone 12发布的情况一样，人们的预期很高，需求飙升。在3月份的第一个季度，包括新的5G手机上市整整三个月的第一个结果，苹果iPhone的销量飙升了66%。强劲的需求应该至少还会持续几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> But looming ahead is the fall launch of the follow-up to the iPhone 12—the iPhone 12s (or maybe the iPhone 13.) Unlike the situation a year ago with the iPhone 12, there is not much buzz about the next round of iPhones, which seem likely to see only incremental improvements. That could set the stage for softening demand.</p><p><blockquote>但即将在秋季发布的是iPhone 12的后续产品——iPhone 12s（或者iPhone 13。）与一年前iPhone 12的情况不同，下一轮iPhone并没有太多的传言，似乎只会看到渐进式的改进。这可能为需求疲软奠定基础。</blockquote></p><p> That’s basically the thesis laid out Friday by New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu, who cut his rating on Apple (ticker: AAPL) stock to Sell from Neutral. Anticipating that earnings estimates will fall from here, he sees potential for a 20% to 30% drop in the stock, and trims his target price to $90 from $135.</p><p><blockquote>这基本上是New Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu周五提出的论点，他将苹果（股票代码：AAPL）股票的评级从中性下调至卖出。预计盈利预期将从这里下降，他认为该股有可能下跌20%至30%，并将目标价从135美元下调至90美元。</blockquote></p><p> Ferragu’s view is that the iPhone 12 really did spur a “supercycle,” with the strongest sales growth for Apple phones since the iPhone 6 launch in 2014.But he thinks the current sales spurt is “rejuvenating” the installed base, and potentially hampering demand for the next phones. He sees risks from the arrival of new phones with more limited improvements—and he also expects consumers will more generally spend less on electronics as the economy reopens. In short, Ferragu thinks the reception force the fall launch could be “lukewarm-to-cold.”</p><p><blockquote>Ferragu的观点是，iPhone 12确实刺激了一个“超级周期”，这是自2014年iPhone 6推出以来苹果手机最强劲的销售增长。但他认为，目前的销售激增正在“振兴”安装基础，并可能阻碍对下一代手机的需求。他看到了改进更有限的新手机的到来带来的风险，他还预计随着经济重新开放，消费者在电子产品上的支出将更普遍地减少。简而言之，费拉古认为秋季发布会的接待力量可能会“不冷不热”。</blockquote></p><p> Ferragu notes that the Street consensus calls for iPhone unit sales of 234 million in the September 2022 fiscal year, which would be up 2% from the consensus view for fiscal 2021. But he says that would imply that this fall’s phones will be the most appealing in the company’s history—and he finds that unlikely. The analyst projects shipments will be at least 15% below the current consensus—in the 180 million to 200 million range. And he thinks the company will miss Street estimates for both the September and December quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Ferragu指出，华尔街对2022年9月财年iPhone销量评级的共识为2.34亿部，比2021财年的共识增长2%。但他表示，这意味着今年秋天的手机将是该公司历史上最具吸引力的手机——他认为这不太可能。分析师预计出货量将比当前共识至少低15%——在1.8亿至2亿之间。他认为该公司9月和12月季度的业绩都将低于华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the bearish call, Apple stock on last Friday have only inched down 0.5% to $124.61.</p><p><blockquote>尽管看涨期权看跌，苹果股价上周五仅小幅下跌0.5%至124.61美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-could-drop-30-if-iphones-sales-slow-analyst-says-51622217140?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-could-drop-30-if-iphones-sales-slow-analyst-says-51622217140?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135341835","content_text":"Apple updates the iPhone lineup every fall. Sometimes, as was the case with the 2020 launch of the iPhone 12, the anticipation is high, and demand soars. In the March quarter, the first results which included three full months of availability of the new 5G-capable phones, Apple iPhone sales soared 66%. And strong demand should continue at least for a few more quarters.\nBut looming ahead is the fall launch of the follow-up to the iPhone 12—the iPhone 12s (or maybe the iPhone 13.) Unlike the situation a year ago with the iPhone 12, there is not much buzz about the next round of iPhones, which seem likely to see only incremental improvements. That could set the stage for softening demand.\nThat’s basically the thesis laid out Friday by New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu, who cut his rating on Apple (ticker: AAPL) stock to Sell from Neutral. Anticipating that earnings estimates will fall from here, he sees potential for a 20% to 30% drop in the stock, and trims his target price to $90 from $135.\nFerragu’s view is that the iPhone 12 really did spur a “supercycle,” with the strongest sales growth for Apple phones since the iPhone 6 launch in 2014.But he thinks the current sales spurt is “rejuvenating” the installed base, and potentially hampering demand for the next phones. He sees risks from the arrival of new phones with more limited improvements—and he also expects consumers will more generally spend less on electronics as the economy reopens. In short, Ferragu thinks the reception force the fall launch could be “lukewarm-to-cold.”\nFerragu notes that the Street consensus calls for iPhone unit sales of 234 million in the September 2022 fiscal year, which would be up 2% from the consensus view for fiscal 2021. But he says that would imply that this fall’s phones will be the most appealing in the company’s history—and he finds that unlikely. The analyst projects shipments will be at least 15% below the current consensus—in the 180 million to 200 million range. And he thinks the company will miss Street estimates for both the September and December quarters.\nDespite the bearish call, Apple stock on last Friday have only inched down 0.5% to $124.61.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":665,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":40,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/110206319"}
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