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2021-05-31
Buyyy
Tech stocks are out of favor — 5 reasons to buy alongside the contrarians<blockquote>科技股失宠——与逆向投资者一起买入的5个理由</blockquote>
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But not for die-hard tech stock fans.\nTheir stocks ","content":"<p>Life may be returning to normal for most people. But not for die-hard tech stock fans.</p><p><blockquote>对大多数人来说，生活可能正在恢复正常。但对于铁杆科技股迷来说则不然。</blockquote></p><p> Their stocks are among the least liked by other investors, according to a recent Bank of America fund manager survey. It found that fund managers have the lowest level allocation toward tech since 2003.</p><p><blockquote>根据美国银行基金经理最近的一项调查，他们的股票是其他投资者最不喜欢的股票之一。研究发现，自2003年以来，基金经理对科技股的配置水平最低。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe97072b200641cb5a47b353d9fcdbb\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"753\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> How can this be?</p><p><blockquote>这怎么可能呢？</blockquote></p><p> Tech has a growth issue. That seems odd, but it makes sense if you think it through. Cyclical companies in areas like energy, industry and basic materials caught in the doldrums during the pandemic are now seeing a Phoenix-like reversal of fortune.</p><p><blockquote>科技存在增长问题。这似乎很奇怪，但如果你仔细想想，这是有道理的。在疫情期间陷入低迷的能源、工业和基础材料等领域的周期性公司现在正在经历凤凰般的命运逆转。</blockquote></p><p> In contrast, sales and earnings at a lot of tech held up OK during the pandemic. So the updraft they get from a rebounding economy looks sort of ho-hum, relatively speaking.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，许多科技公司的销售额和盈利在疫情期间表现良好。因此，相对而言，他们从经济反弹中获得的上升气流看起来有点乏味。</blockquote></p><p> “Because of COVID, a lot of tech companies saw a lot of growth,” says Vlad Rom, a senior investment analyst at Thrivent, a Minnesota-based money manager. He noted that the pandemic pulled forward tech spending as companies looked for new ways to reach consumers and run meetings.</p><p><blockquote>明尼苏达州基金管理公司Thrivent的高级投资分析师弗拉德·罗姆(Vlad Rom)表示：“由于新冠疫情，许多科技公司都实现了大幅增长。”他指出，随着公司寻找接触消费者和召开会议的新方式，疫情推动了科技支出的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “This was not the case for non-tech companies,” he says. Now, as the economy picks up, those non-tech companies are seeing a big growth rebound. “A tech company growing at 30% last year will grow 30% this year. A non-tech company with zero growth last year will grow 50% this year. That is what a lot of investors are focused on.”</p><p><blockquote>“对于非科技公司来说，情况并非如此，”他说。现在，随着经济回暖，那些非科技公司出现了大幅增长反弹。“一家去年增长30%的科技公司今年将增长30%。一家去年零增长的非科技公司今年将增长50%。这是很多投资者关注的焦点。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it’s all about the cyclical trade you’ve been hearing so much about. “The incremental change for a more cyclical business looks better,” says Joseph Chin an analyst at Cambiar Investors in Denver.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，这一切都与您经常听到的周期性交易有关。丹佛Cambiar Investors分析师Joseph Chin表示：“周期性行业的增量变化看起来更好。”</blockquote></p><p> Another problem is that emerging tech companies – think recent initial public offerings – expect their big payoff in profits in the distant future. So they get hit hard when investors fear rapid inflation will send interest rates higher. This reduces the present value of future profits in valuation models.</p><p><blockquote>另一个问题是，新兴科技公司——想想最近的首次公开募股——期望在遥远的未来获得巨大的利润回报。因此，当投资者担心快速通胀会推高利率时，他们就会受到沉重打击。这降低了估值模型中未来利润的现值。</blockquote></p><p> In short, tech is out of favor, which makes it a place to shop for contrarians like myself. Indeed, tech has already been putting in a rebound over the past several trading days. The Nasdaq Composite was down 8.5% peak to trough, in its recent pullback. As the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average flirt with all-time highs, the Nasdaq is still off over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，科技已经失宠，这使得它成为像我这样的逆向投资者购物的地方。事实上，科技股在过去几个交易日已经出现反弹。在最近的回调中，纳斯达克综合指数从高峰到低谷下跌了8.5%。尽管标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数触及历史高点，但纳斯达克仍下跌超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> “Big tech looks very attractive today especially given the recent underperformance,” says Todd Lowenstein, chief equity strategist at HighMark Capital Management. “It’s a unique opportunity to upgrade your portfolio to quality in big tech, it’s where some of the best value is in the market today.”</p><p><blockquote>HighMark Capital Management首席股票策略师托德·洛温斯坦(Todd Lowenstein)表示：“大型科技公司如今看起来非常有吸引力，尤其是考虑到最近表现不佳。”“这是一个独特的机会，可以将您的投资组合升级到大型科技公司的质量，这是当今市场上一些最佳价值的地方。”</blockquote></p><p> Here are five reasons why.</p><p><blockquote>以下是五个原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Insiders are buying</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.内部人士正在买入</b></blockquote></p><p> For my stock letter (Brush Up on Stocks, link in bio below), I’ve tracked insiders daily for over a decade, and one thing is always clear: Insider buying at tech companies is exceedingly rare. But that’s changed in the past few weeks – which brought an unusually high volume of tech insider buying.</p><p><blockquote>对于我的股票信（重温股票，下面简历中的链接），十多年来我每天都在跟踪内部人士，有一件事始终很清楚：科技公司的内部人士购买极其罕见。但这种情况在过去几周发生了变化——这带来了异常高的科技内部购买量。</blockquote></p><p> I just published an issue of my stock letter focusing solely on tech for the first time ever and featured 10 names that look very attractive. I highlighted several others in my letter earlier this month. I single a few out below. Bottom line: The widespread insider interest tells me tech is a buy.</p><p><blockquote>我刚刚发表了一期我的股票信，首次只关注科技，并精选了10个看起来非常有吸引力的名字。我在本月早些时候的信中强调了其他几个问题。我在下面挑出几个。底线：广泛的内部兴趣告诉我科技股值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Tech’s ‘growth problem’ will go away</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.科技的“增长问题”将会消失</b></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic pulled forward a lot of tech adoption among companies. That makes year-over-year comparisons at tech look challenging as we move through 2021, says Matt Miskin, the co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. ‘But as we go into 2022, we believe the street is underestimating the growth in technology relative to the overall market. We would look opportunistically at tech in the next couple of months.”</p><p><blockquote>疫情推动了公司对技术的大量采用。约翰·汉考克投资管理公司(John Hancock Investment Management)联席首席投资策略师马特·米斯金(Matt Miskin)表示，这使得2021年科技行业的同比比较看起来充满挑战。“但随着我们进入2022年，我们认为华尔街低估了技术相对于整体市场的增长。我们将在未来几个月内机会主义地关注科技。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Tech looks reasonably priced</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.科技看起来价格合理</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows the relative value of S&P 500 tech stocks compared to the valuation of the S&P 500 itself. As you can see, tech’s price earnings ratio was recently traded at its average 1.24 times the price earnings multiple of the comp.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了标普500科技股与标普500本身估值相比的相对价值。正如您所看到的，科技公司的市盈率最近的平均交易价格是同类公司市盈率的1.24倍。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5666db47a1ebd117a02d0881dc60e30\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1413\"><span>LEUTHOLD</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>洛伊特霍尔德</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Tech has an edge when labor costs are rising</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.当劳动力成本上升时，技术具有优势</b></blockquote></p><p> While companies in retail, restaurants, hotels and other service sectors will suffer a hit to margins because of rising labor costs, tech companies typically do not have this problem. They employ relatively fewer people.</p><p><blockquote>虽然零售、餐饮、酒店和其他服务行业的公司将因劳动力成本上升而遭受利润率打击，但科技公司通常不会遇到这个问题。他们雇佣的人相对较少。</blockquote></p><p> “Perhaps the best way to play the uncertainty surrounding labor costs is technology,” says Leuthold Group chief investment strategist James Paulsen. “Historically, the relative investment performance of this sector has been largely invariant to such pressures.”</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group首席投资策略师詹姆斯·保尔森(James Paulsen)表示：“也许利用劳动力成本不确定性的最佳方式是技术。”“从历史上看，该行业的相对投资表现在很大程度上不会受到此类压力的影响。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Interest-rate and inflation fears are overblown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.利率和通胀担忧被夸大了</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Ironically, tech companies will come to the rescue – and literally save their own stocks. Why? Capital spending rose a lot in the past year. This tells us productivity will continue to increase. That makes it easier for companies to avoid passing higher labor costs on to consumers in the form of price hikes.</p><p><blockquote>具有讽刺意味的是，科技公司将会出手相救——实际上是拯救自己的股票。为什么？过去一年资本支出增加了很多。这告诉我们生产率将继续提高。这使得企业更容易避免以涨价的形式将更高的劳动力成本转嫁给消费者。</blockquote></p><p> “Long-term growth of this economy is going to have to be driven by productivity growth, and technology will be the key to create that productivity,” says Miskin.</p><p><blockquote>米斯金表示：“经济的长期增长必须由生产力增长驱动，而技术将是创造生产力的关键。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to buyThe arms dealers in chips</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买什么军火商的芯片</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip and chip manufacturing companies look underpriced, says Chin at Cambiar Investors, and he singles out Applied Materials.He’s worth listening to because his shop owns the stock in its Cambiar Opportunity Fund.The fund outperforms its large-cap value category and the Russell 1000 Value Index by nearly 5 percentage points annualized over the past three years, says Morningstar.</p><p><blockquote>Cambiar Investors的Chin表示，芯片和芯片制造公司的价格看起来被低估了，他特别提到了应用材料公司。他值得一听，因为他的商店拥有其Cambiar机会基金的股票。晨星公司表示，过去三年，该基金的年化表现优于大盘价值类别和罗素1000价值指数近5个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Chin cites four reasons to favor Applied Materials: the ongoing chip shortage; the reshoring of chip manufacturing to the U.S.; demand from trends like autonomous vehicles, artificial intelligence and data analytics; and competition among chip makers to improve chip computing power. “We believe Applied Materials and the industry are entering a period of much higher growth,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>Chin列举了支持应用材料公司的四个理由：持续的芯片短缺；芯片制造回流美国；自动驾驶汽车、人工智能和数据分析等趋势的需求；以及芯片制造商之间提高芯片计算能力的竞争。“我们相信应用材料公司和整个行业正在进入一个更高增长的时期，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> “It will take another four to six quarters for supply to catch up with demand and inventories,” says JP Morgan analyst Harlan Sur, who has an overweight rating on Applied Materials, KLA and Lam Research in chip equipment, and several of the large chip makers including NVIDIA and Microchip Technology.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师哈兰·苏尔(Harlan Sur)表示：“供应还需要四到六个季度才能赶上需求和库存。”他对芯片设备领域的应用材料公司、KLA和Lam Research以及几家大型公司给予跑赢大盘评级。芯片制造商包括NVIDIA和Microchip Technology。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Names that insiders favor</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内部人士青睐的名字</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past several weeks I’ve suggested Microsoft,Intel and Snowflake in my stock letter a little below current prices, in part because of the attractive insider buying, and I still like these names.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几周里，我在我的股票信中建议微软、英特尔和雪花的价格略低于当前价格，部分原因是内部购买具有吸引力，而且我仍然喜欢这些名字。</blockquote></p><p> Early in big economic rebounds, investors flock to growth, regardless of the quality of companies. But as we move into the mid-cycle, investors favor quality tech names, says Lowenstein, characterized by things like high margins, stable earnings growth and strong balance sheets.</p><p><blockquote>在经济大幅反弹的早期，投资者会涌向增长，而不管公司的质量如何。但洛温斯坦表示，随着我们进入周期中期，投资者青睐优质科技公司，其特点是高利润率、稳定的盈利增长和强劲的资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p> “If you are screening for quality that is going to lead you to tech,” says Lowenstein.</p><p><blockquote>“如果你正在筛选质量，这将引导你走向技术，”洛温斯坦说。</blockquote></p><p> This will favor Microsoft in cloud computing and software. Microsoft does not look cheap but the premium valuation is warranted because of its rapid growth, says JP Morgan analyst Mark Murphy.</p><p><blockquote>这将有利于云计算和软件领域的微软。摩根大通分析师Mark Murphy表示，微软看起来并不便宜，但由于其快速增长，溢价估值是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Intel shares have been held back by manufacturing issues, but by now the stock looks relatively cheap compared to the market with its price earnings ratio of around 12, says Hendi Susanto a portfolio manager and technology analyst at Gabelli Funds. “Intel is fixing the issue,” says Susanto.</p><p><blockquote>Gabelli Funds的投资组合经理兼技术分析师Hendi Susanto表示，英特尔股价因制造问题而受到拖累，但目前该股与市场相比看起来相对便宜，其市盈率约为12。“英特尔正在解决这个问题，”苏珊托说。</blockquote></p><p> Intel will also benefit from strong chip demand, and chip shortages. “The industry is only 30%-40% through the current up-cycle,” says Sur, at JP Morgan.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔也将受益于强劲的芯片需求和芯片短缺。摩根大通的Sur表示：“该行业在当前的上升周期中仅占30%-40%。”</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake is all about data. That’s its mission. The company offers a product called Data Cloud that helps customers share, explore and unlock the value of data. A big part of the pitch here is that Snowflake helps customers break down data silos inside various pieces of hardware, apps, networks, and clouds. BlackRock and MasterCard agree. They are customers, among dozens of other Fortune 500 companies.</p><p><blockquote>雪花是关于数据的。这就是它的使命。该公司提供一种名为数据云的产品，帮助客户共享、探索和释放数据的价值。这里的一个重要部分是Snowflake帮助客户打破各种硬件、应用程序、网络和云中的数据孤岛。贝莱德和万事达卡对此表示同意。他们是其他数十家财富500强公司的客户。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Security software companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>安全软件公司</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack that caused widespread fuel shortages on the East Coast reminded us all of the ongoing need for better security software.</p><p><blockquote>最近导致东海岸大范围燃料短缺的Colonial Pipeline勒索软件攻击提醒我们所有人对更好的安全软件的持续需求。</blockquote></p><p> Gabelli’s Susanto favors firewall company Check Point Software Technologies,citing cheap valuation, high operating margins and prevalence of recurring revenue. Check Point trades at around 22 times earnings compared to more than 60 for security software company Palo Alto Networks.</p><p><blockquote>Gabelli的Susanto看好防火墙公司Check Point Software Technologies，理由是估值低廉、营业利润率高以及经常性收入普遍存在。Check Point的市盈率约为22倍，而安全软件公司Palo Alto Networks的市盈率超过60倍。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets analyst Matthew Hedberg has an overweight rating on Palo Alto, citing in part the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack, as well as the “Sunburst” hack affecting businesses and governments last December, and the Microsoft Exchange Server malware attack in March.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师Matthew Hedberg对Palo Alto给予跑赢大盘评级，部分原因是Colonial Pipeline勒索软件攻击，以及去年12月影响企业和政府的“旭日”黑客攻击，以及3月份的微软Exchange Server恶意软件攻击。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tech stocks are out of favor — 5 reasons to buy alongside the contrarians<blockquote>科技股失宠——与逆向投资者一起买入的5个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTech stocks are out of favor — 5 reasons to buy alongside the contrarians<blockquote>科技股失宠——与逆向投资者一起买入的5个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-31 19:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Life may be returning to normal for most people. But not for die-hard tech stock fans.</p><p><blockquote>对大多数人来说，生活可能正在恢复正常。但对于铁杆科技股迷来说则不然。</blockquote></p><p> Their stocks are among the least liked by other investors, according to a recent Bank of America fund manager survey. It found that fund managers have the lowest level allocation toward tech since 2003.</p><p><blockquote>根据美国银行基金经理最近的一项调查，他们的股票是其他投资者最不喜欢的股票之一。研究发现，自2003年以来，基金经理对科技股的配置水平最低。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe97072b200641cb5a47b353d9fcdbb\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"753\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> How can this be?</p><p><blockquote>这怎么可能呢？</blockquote></p><p> Tech has a growth issue. That seems odd, but it makes sense if you think it through. Cyclical companies in areas like energy, industry and basic materials caught in the doldrums during the pandemic are now seeing a Phoenix-like reversal of fortune.</p><p><blockquote>科技存在增长问题。这似乎很奇怪，但如果你仔细想想，这是有道理的。在疫情期间陷入低迷的能源、工业和基础材料等领域的周期性公司现在正在经历凤凰般的命运逆转。</blockquote></p><p> In contrast, sales and earnings at a lot of tech held up OK during the pandemic. So the updraft they get from a rebounding economy looks sort of ho-hum, relatively speaking.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，许多科技公司的销售额和盈利在疫情期间表现良好。因此，相对而言，他们从经济反弹中获得的上升气流看起来有点乏味。</blockquote></p><p> “Because of COVID, a lot of tech companies saw a lot of growth,” says Vlad Rom, a senior investment analyst at Thrivent, a Minnesota-based money manager. He noted that the pandemic pulled forward tech spending as companies looked for new ways to reach consumers and run meetings.</p><p><blockquote>明尼苏达州基金管理公司Thrivent的高级投资分析师弗拉德·罗姆(Vlad Rom)表示：“由于新冠疫情，许多科技公司都实现了大幅增长。”他指出，随着公司寻找接触消费者和召开会议的新方式，疫情推动了科技支出的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “This was not the case for non-tech companies,” he says. Now, as the economy picks up, those non-tech companies are seeing a big growth rebound. “A tech company growing at 30% last year will grow 30% this year. A non-tech company with zero growth last year will grow 50% this year. That is what a lot of investors are focused on.”</p><p><blockquote>“对于非科技公司来说，情况并非如此，”他说。现在，随着经济回暖，那些非科技公司出现了大幅增长反弹。“一家去年增长30%的科技公司今年将增长30%。一家去年零增长的非科技公司今年将增长50%。这是很多投资者关注的焦点。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it’s all about the cyclical trade you’ve been hearing so much about. “The incremental change for a more cyclical business looks better,” says Joseph Chin an analyst at Cambiar Investors in Denver.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，这一切都与您经常听到的周期性交易有关。丹佛Cambiar Investors分析师Joseph Chin表示：“周期性行业的增量变化看起来更好。”</blockquote></p><p> Another problem is that emerging tech companies – think recent initial public offerings – expect their big payoff in profits in the distant future. So they get hit hard when investors fear rapid inflation will send interest rates higher. This reduces the present value of future profits in valuation models.</p><p><blockquote>另一个问题是，新兴科技公司——想想最近的首次公开募股——期望在遥远的未来获得巨大的利润回报。因此，当投资者担心快速通胀会推高利率时，他们就会受到沉重打击。这降低了估值模型中未来利润的现值。</blockquote></p><p> In short, tech is out of favor, which makes it a place to shop for contrarians like myself. Indeed, tech has already been putting in a rebound over the past several trading days. The Nasdaq Composite was down 8.5% peak to trough, in its recent pullback. As the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average flirt with all-time highs, the Nasdaq is still off over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，科技已经失宠，这使得它成为像我这样的逆向投资者购物的地方。事实上，科技股在过去几个交易日已经出现反弹。在最近的回调中，纳斯达克综合指数从高峰到低谷下跌了8.5%。尽管标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数触及历史高点，但纳斯达克仍下跌超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> “Big tech looks very attractive today especially given the recent underperformance,” says Todd Lowenstein, chief equity strategist at HighMark Capital Management. “It’s a unique opportunity to upgrade your portfolio to quality in big tech, it’s where some of the best value is in the market today.”</p><p><blockquote>HighMark Capital Management首席股票策略师托德·洛温斯坦(Todd Lowenstein)表示：“大型科技公司如今看起来非常有吸引力，尤其是考虑到最近表现不佳。”“这是一个独特的机会，可以将您的投资组合升级到大型科技公司的质量，这是当今市场上一些最佳价值的地方。”</blockquote></p><p> Here are five reasons why.</p><p><blockquote>以下是五个原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Insiders are buying</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.内部人士正在买入</b></blockquote></p><p> For my stock letter (Brush Up on Stocks, link in bio below), I’ve tracked insiders daily for over a decade, and one thing is always clear: Insider buying at tech companies is exceedingly rare. But that’s changed in the past few weeks – which brought an unusually high volume of tech insider buying.</p><p><blockquote>对于我的股票信（重温股票，下面简历中的链接），十多年来我每天都在跟踪内部人士，有一件事始终很清楚：科技公司的内部人士购买极其罕见。但这种情况在过去几周发生了变化——这带来了异常高的科技内部购买量。</blockquote></p><p> I just published an issue of my stock letter focusing solely on tech for the first time ever and featured 10 names that look very attractive. I highlighted several others in my letter earlier this month. I single a few out below. Bottom line: The widespread insider interest tells me tech is a buy.</p><p><blockquote>我刚刚发表了一期我的股票信，首次只关注科技，并精选了10个看起来非常有吸引力的名字。我在本月早些时候的信中强调了其他几个问题。我在下面挑出几个。底线：广泛的内部兴趣告诉我科技股值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Tech’s ‘growth problem’ will go away</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.科技的“增长问题”将会消失</b></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic pulled forward a lot of tech adoption among companies. That makes year-over-year comparisons at tech look challenging as we move through 2021, says Matt Miskin, the co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. ‘But as we go into 2022, we believe the street is underestimating the growth in technology relative to the overall market. We would look opportunistically at tech in the next couple of months.”</p><p><blockquote>疫情推动了公司对技术的大量采用。约翰·汉考克投资管理公司(John Hancock Investment Management)联席首席投资策略师马特·米斯金(Matt Miskin)表示，这使得2021年科技行业的同比比较看起来充满挑战。“但随着我们进入2022年，我们认为华尔街低估了技术相对于整体市场的增长。我们将在未来几个月内机会主义地关注科技。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Tech looks reasonably priced</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.科技看起来价格合理</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows the relative value of S&P 500 tech stocks compared to the valuation of the S&P 500 itself. As you can see, tech’s price earnings ratio was recently traded at its average 1.24 times the price earnings multiple of the comp.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了标普500科技股与标普500本身估值相比的相对价值。正如您所看到的，科技公司的市盈率最近的平均交易价格是同类公司市盈率的1.24倍。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5666db47a1ebd117a02d0881dc60e30\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1413\"><span>LEUTHOLD</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>洛伊特霍尔德</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Tech has an edge when labor costs are rising</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.当劳动力成本上升时，技术具有优势</b></blockquote></p><p> While companies in retail, restaurants, hotels and other service sectors will suffer a hit to margins because of rising labor costs, tech companies typically do not have this problem. They employ relatively fewer people.</p><p><blockquote>虽然零售、餐饮、酒店和其他服务行业的公司将因劳动力成本上升而遭受利润率打击，但科技公司通常不会遇到这个问题。他们雇佣的人相对较少。</blockquote></p><p> “Perhaps the best way to play the uncertainty surrounding labor costs is technology,” says Leuthold Group chief investment strategist James Paulsen. “Historically, the relative investment performance of this sector has been largely invariant to such pressures.”</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group首席投资策略师詹姆斯·保尔森(James Paulsen)表示：“也许利用劳动力成本不确定性的最佳方式是技术。”“从历史上看，该行业的相对投资表现在很大程度上不会受到此类压力的影响。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Interest-rate and inflation fears are overblown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.利率和通胀担忧被夸大了</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Ironically, tech companies will come to the rescue – and literally save their own stocks. Why? Capital spending rose a lot in the past year. This tells us productivity will continue to increase. That makes it easier for companies to avoid passing higher labor costs on to consumers in the form of price hikes.</p><p><blockquote>具有讽刺意味的是，科技公司将会出手相救——实际上是拯救自己的股票。为什么？过去一年资本支出增加了很多。这告诉我们生产率将继续提高。这使得企业更容易避免以涨价的形式将更高的劳动力成本转嫁给消费者。</blockquote></p><p> “Long-term growth of this economy is going to have to be driven by productivity growth, and technology will be the key to create that productivity,” says Miskin.</p><p><blockquote>米斯金表示：“经济的长期增长必须由生产力增长驱动，而技术将是创造生产力的关键。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to buyThe arms dealers in chips</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买什么军火商的芯片</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip and chip manufacturing companies look underpriced, says Chin at Cambiar Investors, and he singles out Applied Materials.He’s worth listening to because his shop owns the stock in its Cambiar Opportunity Fund.The fund outperforms its large-cap value category and the Russell 1000 Value Index by nearly 5 percentage points annualized over the past three years, says Morningstar.</p><p><blockquote>Cambiar Investors的Chin表示，芯片和芯片制造公司的价格看起来被低估了，他特别提到了应用材料公司。他值得一听，因为他的商店拥有其Cambiar机会基金的股票。晨星公司表示，过去三年，该基金的年化表现优于大盘价值类别和罗素1000价值指数近5个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Chin cites four reasons to favor Applied Materials: the ongoing chip shortage; the reshoring of chip manufacturing to the U.S.; demand from trends like autonomous vehicles, artificial intelligence and data analytics; and competition among chip makers to improve chip computing power. “We believe Applied Materials and the industry are entering a period of much higher growth,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>Chin列举了支持应用材料公司的四个理由：持续的芯片短缺；芯片制造回流美国；自动驾驶汽车、人工智能和数据分析等趋势的需求；以及芯片制造商之间提高芯片计算能力的竞争。“我们相信应用材料公司和整个行业正在进入一个更高增长的时期，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> “It will take another four to six quarters for supply to catch up with demand and inventories,” says JP Morgan analyst Harlan Sur, who has an overweight rating on Applied Materials, KLA and Lam Research in chip equipment, and several of the large chip makers including NVIDIA and Microchip Technology.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师哈兰·苏尔(Harlan Sur)表示：“供应还需要四到六个季度才能赶上需求和库存。”他对芯片设备领域的应用材料公司、KLA和Lam Research以及几家大型公司给予跑赢大盘评级。芯片制造商包括NVIDIA和Microchip Technology。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Names that insiders favor</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内部人士青睐的名字</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past several weeks I’ve suggested Microsoft,Intel and Snowflake in my stock letter a little below current prices, in part because of the attractive insider buying, and I still like these names.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几周里，我在我的股票信中建议微软、英特尔和雪花的价格略低于当前价格，部分原因是内部购买具有吸引力，而且我仍然喜欢这些名字。</blockquote></p><p> Early in big economic rebounds, investors flock to growth, regardless of the quality of companies. But as we move into the mid-cycle, investors favor quality tech names, says Lowenstein, characterized by things like high margins, stable earnings growth and strong balance sheets.</p><p><blockquote>在经济大幅反弹的早期，投资者会涌向增长，而不管公司的质量如何。但洛温斯坦表示，随着我们进入周期中期，投资者青睐优质科技公司，其特点是高利润率、稳定的盈利增长和强劲的资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p> “If you are screening for quality that is going to lead you to tech,” says Lowenstein.</p><p><blockquote>“如果你正在筛选质量，这将引导你走向技术，”洛温斯坦说。</blockquote></p><p> This will favor Microsoft in cloud computing and software. Microsoft does not look cheap but the premium valuation is warranted because of its rapid growth, says JP Morgan analyst Mark Murphy.</p><p><blockquote>这将有利于云计算和软件领域的微软。摩根大通分析师Mark Murphy表示，微软看起来并不便宜，但由于其快速增长，溢价估值是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Intel shares have been held back by manufacturing issues, but by now the stock looks relatively cheap compared to the market with its price earnings ratio of around 12, says Hendi Susanto a portfolio manager and technology analyst at Gabelli Funds. “Intel is fixing the issue,” says Susanto.</p><p><blockquote>Gabelli Funds的投资组合经理兼技术分析师Hendi Susanto表示，英特尔股价因制造问题而受到拖累，但目前该股与市场相比看起来相对便宜，其市盈率约为12。“英特尔正在解决这个问题，”苏珊托说。</blockquote></p><p> Intel will also benefit from strong chip demand, and chip shortages. “The industry is only 30%-40% through the current up-cycle,” says Sur, at JP Morgan.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔也将受益于强劲的芯片需求和芯片短缺。摩根大通的Sur表示：“该行业在当前的上升周期中仅占30%-40%。”</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake is all about data. That’s its mission. The company offers a product called Data Cloud that helps customers share, explore and unlock the value of data. A big part of the pitch here is that Snowflake helps customers break down data silos inside various pieces of hardware, apps, networks, and clouds. BlackRock and MasterCard agree. They are customers, among dozens of other Fortune 500 companies.</p><p><blockquote>雪花是关于数据的。这就是它的使命。该公司提供一种名为数据云的产品，帮助客户共享、探索和释放数据的价值。这里的一个重要部分是Snowflake帮助客户打破各种硬件、应用程序、网络和云中的数据孤岛。贝莱德和万事达卡对此表示同意。他们是其他数十家财富500强公司的客户。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Security software companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>安全软件公司</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack that caused widespread fuel shortages on the East Coast reminded us all of the ongoing need for better security software.</p><p><blockquote>最近导致东海岸大范围燃料短缺的Colonial Pipeline勒索软件攻击提醒我们所有人对更好的安全软件的持续需求。</blockquote></p><p> Gabelli’s Susanto favors firewall company Check Point Software Technologies,citing cheap valuation, high operating margins and prevalence of recurring revenue. Check Point trades at around 22 times earnings compared to more than 60 for security software company Palo Alto Networks.</p><p><blockquote>Gabelli的Susanto看好防火墙公司Check Point Software Technologies，理由是估值低廉、营业利润率高以及经常性收入普遍存在。Check Point的市盈率约为22倍，而安全软件公司Palo Alto Networks的市盈率超过60倍。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets analyst Matthew Hedberg has an overweight rating on Palo Alto, citing in part the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack, as well as the “Sunburst” hack affecting businesses and governments last December, and the Microsoft Exchange Server malware attack in March.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师Matthew Hedberg对Palo Alto给予跑赢大盘评级，部分原因是Colonial Pipeline勒索软件攻击，以及去年12月影响企业和政府的“旭日”黑客攻击，以及3月份的微软Exchange Server恶意软件攻击。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tech-stocks-are-out-of-favor-5-reasons-to-shop-alongside-the-contrarians-11622204518?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tech-stocks-are-out-of-favor-5-reasons-to-shop-alongside-the-contrarians-11622204518?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180491418","content_text":"Life may be returning to normal for most people. But not for die-hard tech stock fans.\nTheir stocks are among the least liked by other investors, according to a recent Bank of America fund manager survey. It found that fund managers have the lowest level allocation toward tech since 2003.\n\nHow can this be?\nTech has a growth issue. That seems odd, but it makes sense if you think it through. Cyclical companies in areas like energy, industry and basic materials caught in the doldrums during the pandemic are now seeing a Phoenix-like reversal of fortune.\nIn contrast, sales and earnings at a lot of tech held up OK during the pandemic. So the updraft they get from a rebounding economy looks sort of ho-hum, relatively speaking.\n“Because of COVID, a lot of tech companies saw a lot of growth,” says Vlad Rom, a senior investment analyst at Thrivent, a Minnesota-based money manager. He noted that the pandemic pulled forward tech spending as companies looked for new ways to reach consumers and run meetings.\n“This was not the case for non-tech companies,” he says. Now, as the economy picks up, those non-tech companies are seeing a big growth rebound. “A tech company growing at 30% last year will grow 30% this year. A non-tech company with zero growth last year will grow 50% this year. That is what a lot of investors are focused on.”\nIn other words, it’s all about the cyclical trade you’ve been hearing so much about. “The incremental change for a more cyclical business looks better,” says Joseph Chin an analyst at Cambiar Investors in Denver.\nAnother problem is that emerging tech companies – think recent initial public offerings – expect their big payoff in profits in the distant future. So they get hit hard when investors fear rapid inflation will send interest rates higher. This reduces the present value of future profits in valuation models.\nIn short, tech is out of favor, which makes it a place to shop for contrarians like myself. Indeed, tech has already been putting in a rebound over the past several trading days. The Nasdaq Composite was down 8.5% peak to trough, in its recent pullback. As the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average flirt with all-time highs, the Nasdaq is still off over 3%.\n“Big tech looks very attractive today especially given the recent underperformance,” says Todd Lowenstein, chief equity strategist at HighMark Capital Management. “It’s a unique opportunity to upgrade your portfolio to quality in big tech, it’s where some of the best value is in the market today.”\nHere are five reasons why.\n1. Insiders are buying\nFor my stock letter (Brush Up on Stocks, link in bio below), I’ve tracked insiders daily for over a decade, and one thing is always clear: Insider buying at tech companies is exceedingly rare. But that’s changed in the past few weeks – which brought an unusually high volume of tech insider buying.\nI just published an issue of my stock letter focusing solely on tech for the first time ever and featured 10 names that look very attractive. I highlighted several others in my letter earlier this month. I single a few out below. Bottom line: The widespread insider interest tells me tech is a buy.\n2. Tech’s ‘growth problem’ will go away\nThe pandemic pulled forward a lot of tech adoption among companies. That makes year-over-year comparisons at tech look challenging as we move through 2021, says Matt Miskin, the co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. ‘But as we go into 2022, we believe the street is underestimating the growth in technology relative to the overall market. We would look opportunistically at tech in the next couple of months.”\n3. Tech looks reasonably priced\nThe chart below shows the relative value of S&P 500 tech stocks compared to the valuation of the S&P 500 itself. As you can see, tech’s price earnings ratio was recently traded at its average 1.24 times the price earnings multiple of the comp.\nLEUTHOLD\n4. Tech has an edge when labor costs are rising\nWhile companies in retail, restaurants, hotels and other service sectors will suffer a hit to margins because of rising labor costs, tech companies typically do not have this problem. They employ relatively fewer people.\n“Perhaps the best way to play the uncertainty surrounding labor costs is technology,” says Leuthold Group chief investment strategist James Paulsen. “Historically, the relative investment performance of this sector has been largely invariant to such pressures.”\n5. Interest-rate and inflation fears are overblown\nIronically, tech companies will come to the rescue – and literally save their own stocks. Why? Capital spending rose a lot in the past year. This tells us productivity will continue to increase. That makes it easier for companies to avoid passing higher labor costs on to consumers in the form of price hikes.\n“Long-term growth of this economy is going to have to be driven by productivity growth, and technology will be the key to create that productivity,” says Miskin.\nWhat to buyThe arms dealers in chips\nChip and chip manufacturing companies look underpriced, says Chin at Cambiar Investors, and he singles out Applied Materials.He’s worth listening to because his shop owns the stock in its Cambiar Opportunity Fund.The fund outperforms its large-cap value category and the Russell 1000 Value Index by nearly 5 percentage points annualized over the past three years, says Morningstar.\nChin cites four reasons to favor Applied Materials: the ongoing chip shortage; the reshoring of chip manufacturing to the U.S.; demand from trends like autonomous vehicles, artificial intelligence and data analytics; and competition among chip makers to improve chip computing power. “We believe Applied Materials and the industry are entering a period of much higher growth,” he says.\n“It will take another four to six quarters for supply to catch up with demand and inventories,” says JP Morgan analyst Harlan Sur, who has an overweight rating on Applied Materials, KLA and Lam Research in chip equipment, and several of the large chip makers including NVIDIA and Microchip Technology.\nNames that insiders favor\nIn the past several weeks I’ve suggested Microsoft,Intel and Snowflake in my stock letter a little below current prices, in part because of the attractive insider buying, and I still like these names.\nEarly in big economic rebounds, investors flock to growth, regardless of the quality of companies. But as we move into the mid-cycle, investors favor quality tech names, says Lowenstein, characterized by things like high margins, stable earnings growth and strong balance sheets.\n“If you are screening for quality that is going to lead you to tech,” says Lowenstein.\nThis will favor Microsoft in cloud computing and software. Microsoft does not look cheap but the premium valuation is warranted because of its rapid growth, says JP Morgan analyst Mark Murphy.\nIntel shares have been held back by manufacturing issues, but by now the stock looks relatively cheap compared to the market with its price earnings ratio of around 12, says Hendi Susanto a portfolio manager and technology analyst at Gabelli Funds. “Intel is fixing the issue,” says Susanto.\nIntel will also benefit from strong chip demand, and chip shortages. “The industry is only 30%-40% through the current up-cycle,” says Sur, at JP Morgan.\nSnowflake is all about data. That’s its mission. The company offers a product called Data Cloud that helps customers share, explore and unlock the value of data. A big part of the pitch here is that Snowflake helps customers break down data silos inside various pieces of hardware, apps, networks, and clouds. BlackRock and MasterCard agree. They are customers, among dozens of other Fortune 500 companies.\nSecurity software companies\nThe recent Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack that caused widespread fuel shortages on the East Coast reminded us all of the ongoing need for better security software.\nGabelli’s Susanto favors firewall company Check Point Software Technologies,citing cheap valuation, high operating margins and prevalence of recurring revenue. Check Point trades at around 22 times earnings compared to more than 60 for security software company Palo Alto Networks.\nRBC Capital Markets analyst Matthew Hedberg has an overweight rating on Palo Alto, citing in part the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack, as well as the “Sunburst” hack affecting businesses and governments last December, and the Microsoft Exchange Server malware attack in March.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":711,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/110281172"}
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