神也是人
2021-05-31
👍
Dow 37,000? It’s possible if U.S. stocks stage an ‘average’ summer rally
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":110665900,"tweetId":"110665900","gmtCreate":1622450203000,"gmtModify":1634101388878,"author":{"id":3568240797203410,"idStr":"3568240797203410","authorId":3568240797203410,"authorIdStr":"3568240797203410","name":"神也是人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82fb6dd1f567b12b2d67217cc1e89874","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>👍</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>👍</p></body></html>","text":"👍","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110665900","repostId":1141703612,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141703612","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622448591,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141703612?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-31 16:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow 37,000? It’s possible if U.S. stocks stage an ‘average’ summer rally","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141703612","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"U.S. market benchmark has gained 7% on average between June and August\nGETTY IMAGES\nDow 37,000 by th","content":"<p>U.S. market benchmark has gained 7% on average between June and August</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0baa1f773514a29e3ea7e2f7650c56d6\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"833\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p>\n<p>Dow 37,000 by the end of the summer? That seems too good to be true, since Labor Day is just three months away. In fact, all it would take is a summer rally of average magnitude.</p>\n<p>Many on Wall Street are excitedly talking up the potential for a summer rally this year. Since its creation in 1896, the Dow Jones Industrial Average at some point in June, July or August has been 7.34% higher on average than where it stood at the end of May.</p>\n<p>Before you rush to put new money into the U.S. stock market, you should know that profiting from this potential isn’t as straightforward as it seems. It would not be a good idea, for example, to simply place a market order at the end of May to sell if the Dow rises 7.34% by Labor Day. That’s because 7.34% is an average. In some years the Dow has gained far less. In fact, at times the Dow at no point in June, July or August was higher than where it stood at the end of May.</p>\n<p>Moreover, there’s nothing special about the market’s rally potential during the summer. This is illustrated in the chart below, reflecting the Dow’s 125-year history. Each month’s column in the chart represents the Dow’s average gain from the end of that month to its higher close at any point over the subsequent three months.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8adc67c9010c2a767ff19ec543d51ae\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p>\n<p>Notice that the rally potential for several other months is just as high as for May, if not higher. At the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use to determine if a pattern is genuine, there is nothing unusual about the market’s rally potential over the three months from the end of May.</p>\n<p><b>The origins of the ‘summer rally’</b></p>\n<p>How, then, did Wall Street ever come to believe that there is a summer rally? Though I’ve never been able to discover a definitive answer, my hunch is that it traces back to around the same time decades ago in which investors began focusing on another seasonal tendency — the “Sell in May and go away” pattern. Since Wall Street doesn’t earn any commission income if traders actually go away for the summer, it would have had a powerful incentive to concoct some narrative that could entice buyers and sellers to stick around.</p>\n<p>A summer rally ingeniously fits the bill. Believing in it doesn’t require denying the sell in May premise — that the stock market is a below-average performer during the summer. All the “summer rally” requires is the belief that the market will rally at some point during the summer. So it has a superficial plausibility, but nothing more.</p>\n<p>My skepticism doesn’t mean the stock market won’t rally this summer. My point instead is that, if it does, it won’t be because of the heat.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow 37,000? It’s possible if U.S. stocks stage an ‘average’ summer rally</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow 37,000? It’s possible if U.S. stocks stage an ‘average’ summer rally\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-31 16:09 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-37-000-its-possible-if-u-s-stocks-stage-an-average-summer-rally-11621899736?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>U.S. market benchmark has gained 7% on average between June and August\nGETTY IMAGES\nDow 37,000 by the end of the summer? That seems too good to be true, since Labor Day is just three months away. In ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-37-000-its-possible-if-u-s-stocks-stage-an-average-summer-rally-11621899736?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-37-000-its-possible-if-u-s-stocks-stage-an-average-summer-rally-11621899736?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141703612","content_text":"U.S. market benchmark has gained 7% on average between June and August\nGETTY IMAGES\nDow 37,000 by the end of the summer? That seems too good to be true, since Labor Day is just three months away. In fact, all it would take is a summer rally of average magnitude.\nMany on Wall Street are excitedly talking up the potential for a summer rally this year. Since its creation in 1896, the Dow Jones Industrial Average at some point in June, July or August has been 7.34% higher on average than where it stood at the end of May.\nBefore you rush to put new money into the U.S. stock market, you should know that profiting from this potential isn’t as straightforward as it seems. It would not be a good idea, for example, to simply place a market order at the end of May to sell if the Dow rises 7.34% by Labor Day. That’s because 7.34% is an average. In some years the Dow has gained far less. In fact, at times the Dow at no point in June, July or August was higher than where it stood at the end of May.\nMoreover, there’s nothing special about the market’s rally potential during the summer. This is illustrated in the chart below, reflecting the Dow’s 125-year history. Each month’s column in the chart represents the Dow’s average gain from the end of that month to its higher close at any point over the subsequent three months.\n\nNotice that the rally potential for several other months is just as high as for May, if not higher. At the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use to determine if a pattern is genuine, there is nothing unusual about the market’s rally potential over the three months from the end of May.\nThe origins of the ‘summer rally’\nHow, then, did Wall Street ever come to believe that there is a summer rally? Though I’ve never been able to discover a definitive answer, my hunch is that it traces back to around the same time decades ago in which investors began focusing on another seasonal tendency — the “Sell in May and go away” pattern. Since Wall Street doesn’t earn any commission income if traders actually go away for the summer, it would have had a powerful incentive to concoct some narrative that could entice buyers and sellers to stick around.\nA summer rally ingeniously fits the bill. Believing in it doesn’t require denying the sell in May premise — that the stock market is a below-average performer during the summer. All the “summer rally” requires is the belief that the market will rally at some point during the summer. So it has a superficial plausibility, but nothing more.\nMy skepticism doesn’t mean the stock market won’t rally this summer. My point instead is that, if it does, it won’t be because of the heat.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":176,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/110665900"}
精彩评论