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2021-06-03

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The Fed's Take on the Economy—From Growth to Inflation<blockquote>美联储对经济的看法——从增长到通胀</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":111756314,"tweetId":"111756314","gmtCreate":1622702608038,"gmtModify":1634098978349,"author":{"id":3583115065771135,"idStr":"3583115065771135","authorId":3583115065771135,"authorIdStr":"3583115065771135","name":"bigjosh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc2bdb60764a0c5da0dca6883c483fb4","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>:')</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>:')</body></html>","text":":')","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111756314","repostId":1143927575,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143927575","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622702421,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143927575?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-03 14:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed's Take on the Economy—From Growth to Inflation<blockquote>美联储对经济的看法——从增长到通胀</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143927575","media":"Barrons","summary":"Economic activity across the U.S. sped up from early April to late May as vaccinated consumers retur","content":"Economic activity across the U.S. sped up from early April to late May as vaccinated consumers returned to normal activities and businesses dropped pandemic restrictions.<blockquote>随着接种疫苗的消费者恢复正常活动以及企业取消大流行限制，美国各地的经济活动从4月初到5月底加速。</blockquote>That’s the main takeaway from the Federal Reserve’s latest beige book, which we read so you don’t have to. The collection of anecdotes gathered by the 12 regional Fed banks gives investors a look at the current economy from the ground, as described by businesses across the country.<blockquote>这是美联储最新褐皮书的主要结论，我们阅读该报告是为了让您不必阅读。12家地区联储银行收集的轶事让投资者从实地了解当前的经济，正如全国各地企业所描述的那样。</blockquote>“Looking at the description of growth, it is hard not to be optimistic,” say Jefferies economists Thomas Simons and Aneta Markowska. “Looking at the description of the labor market and inflation, however, that optimism fades somewhat.”<blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯(Thomas Simons)和阿内塔·马科夫斯卡(Aneta Markowska)表示：“看看对增长的描述，很难不感到乐观。”“然而，看看对劳动力市场和通货膨胀的描述，这种乐观情绪有所消退。”</blockquote>From growth to inflation, here are the main themes jumping out of the book released Wednesday.<blockquote>从增长到通胀，以下是周三发行的书中跳出的主题。</blockquote>Economic expansion<blockquote>经济扩张</blockquote>The national economy expanded at a “moderate pace” over the past two month or so, a somewhat faster rate than the prior reporting period, the beige book says. Several districts cited the positive effects of increased vaccination rates and relaxed social distancing measures. Manufacturing boomed and activity across the leisure, hospitality and tourism industries strengthened.<blockquote>褐皮书称，在过去两个月左右的时间里，国民经济以“温和的速度”扩张，比上一个报告期略快。几个地区列举了提高疫苗接种率和放松社会距离措施的积极影响。制造业蓬勃发展，休闲、酒店和旅游业的活动加强。</blockquote>As the Boston Fed put it: Restaurants across Massachusetts experienced a dramatic uptick in sales in April and May, with recent revenues exceeding those in the same period of 2019. The return of widespread outdoor dining fueled the initial surge in sales, but more recently dining room sales also increased. That’s having a knock-on effect; strong restaurant sales are buoying retail property leasing, the district reported.<blockquote>正如波士顿联储所说：马萨诸塞州各地的餐馆在4月和5月销售额大幅增长，近期收入超过了2019年同期。广泛的户外用餐的回归推动了最初的销售额激增，但最近餐厅的销售额也有所增加。这会产生连锁反应。据该地区报道，强劲的餐馆销售提振了零售物业租赁。</blockquote>Supply-chain disruptions<blockquote>供应链中断</blockquote>Growth would be even better if not for severe supply-chain disruptions.Light vehicle sales remained solid but were constrained by tight inventories, while significant supply chain challenges continued to disrupt factory production and construction activity. Home builders across the nation reported strong demand, supported by low mortgage rates, outpaced their capacity to build and prompted some to limit sales.<blockquote>如果没有严重的供应链中断，增长会更好。轻型汽车销售保持稳健，但受到库存紧张的限制，而重大的供应链挑战继续扰乱工厂生产和建设活动。全国各地的房屋建筑商报告称，在低抵押贷款利率的支持下，需求强劲，超过了他们的建设能力，并促使一些人限制销售。</blockquote>Some form of “supply chain problems” appeared 29 times in the beige book. Every district reported trouble. In Cleveland, “supply chain bottlenecks were constraining growth by causing extended lead times, depleted inventories, and escalating materials and transportation costs.” And in Chicago, “contacts noted that supply chain issues had worsened, particularly for raw materials, microchips, and specialty parts. They expected little improvement through the end of the year,” the book says.<blockquote>某种形式的“供应链问题”在褐皮书中出现了29次。每个区都报告了麻烦。在克利夫兰，“供应链瓶颈导致交货时间延长、库存耗尽以及材料和运输成本上升，从而限制了增长。”在芝加哥，“联系人指出，供应链问题已经恶化，特别是原材料、微芯片和特种零件。他们预计到今年年底几乎不会有什么改善，”这本书说。</blockquote>Labor shortage<blockquote>劳动力短缺</blockquote>Workers are chief among inputs that are in short supply. Difficulties in hiring are exacerbating supply-chain disruptions and inflating prices, impeding growth and cutting into some companies’ profits.<blockquote>工人是供应短缺的主要投入。招聘困难加剧了供应链中断和价格上涨，阻碍了增长并削减了一些公司的利润。</blockquote>While labor shortages have been concentrated in lower-paying industries, there are signs the problem is spreading. “Reports of labor shortages were more widespread across sectors and skill levels than the last report,” the Dallas Fed reports.<blockquote>虽然劳动力短缺集中在工资较低的行业，但有迹象表明这个问题正在蔓延。达拉斯联储报告称：“与上次报告相比，劳动力短缺的报告在各个行业和技能水平上更加普遍。”</blockquote>Many businesses ranked staffing as a top concern, the New York Fed says, pointing to a combination of workers’ health concerns, child-care constraints, and generous unemployment benefits. A major New York City employment agency noted a significant increase in hiring and a greater sense of urgency to fill open positions, and a substantial proportion of businesses across all major industry sectors plan to raise wages, the district adds.<blockquote>纽约联储表示，许多企业将人员配备列为首要问题，并指出工人健康问题、儿童保育限制和慷慨的失业救济金等因素综合作用。该地区补充说，纽约市一家主要职业介绍所指出，招聘人数大幅增加，填补空缺职位的紧迫感也更加强烈，所有主要行业的很大一部分企业都计划提高工资。</blockquote>In San Francisco, employers in the construction, manufacturing, technology, retail, healthcare, restaurant, and hospitality sectors raised wages to retain and attract workers for both high- and low-skilled jobs. In addition to raising wages, these employers offered incentives such as sign-on bonuses, reduced or flexible hours, and the ability to work remotely, the regional bank notes.<blockquote>在旧金山，建筑、制造、技术、零售、医疗保健、餐馆和酒店行业的雇主提高了工资，以留住和吸引高技能和低技能工作的工人。该地区银行指出，除了提高工资外，这些雇主还提供了签约奖金、减少或灵活工作时间以及远程工作能力等激励措施。</blockquote>Overall, the beige book says, the lack of job candidates prevented some firms from increasing output and, less commonly, led some businesses to reduce operating hours.<blockquote>褐皮书称，总体而言，求职者的缺乏阻碍了一些公司增加产量，并且在不太常见的情况下导致一些企业减少营业时间。</blockquote>Rising prices<blockquote>物价上涨</blockquote>Overall price pressures increased further since the last report, the book says, and&nbsp;businesses anticipate further acceleration in the months ahead.<blockquote>该书称，自上次报告以来，整体价格压力进一步增加，企业预计未来几个月价格压力将进一步加速。</blockquote>“Looking ahead one year, the prices that firms anticipate receiving for their own goods and services rose further still—after the firms reported moderately high expectations last quarter,” says the Philadelphia Fed. “Unlike in prior quarters, firms now expect general consumer inflation to be even higher than firm prices,” a signal that firms are starting to pass through more of the price inflation they’re experiencing—and red flag that hot inflation may not be so temporary.&nbsp;<blockquote>费城联储表示：“展望未来一年，在企业上季度报告了适度较高的预期之后，企业预期自己的商品和服务价格将进一步上涨。”“与前几个季度不同的是，企业现在预计总体消费者通胀甚至高于企业价格”，这是企业开始承受更多正在经历的价格通胀的信号，也是热通胀可能不会那么严重的危险信号。暂时的。</blockquote>In Cleveland, reports of firms’ raising their selling prices became more widespread. Contacts now expect it to take longer than previously anticipated for supply chain issues to be resolved, and that expectation is driving more aggressive pricing, the regional bank reports. About half of the bank’s contacts plan to raise their selling prices in the second half of the year, with most of those firms intending to do so in a way “that will at least preserve their margins.”<blockquote>在克利夫兰，有关公司提高售价的报道变得更加普遍。该地区银行报告称，联系人现在预计解决供应链问题需要比之前预期更长的时间，这种预期正在推动更激进的定价。该银行大约一半的联系人计划在今年下半年提高售价，其中大多数公司打算以“至少能保持利润率”的方式这样做。</blockquote>Illustrating how fast prices are moving, one real estate developer in Cleveland said quotes from general contractors were now valid for only 10 days, versus as many as 180 days prior to the pandemic.<blockquote>克利夫兰的一位房地产开发商表示，总承包商的报价现在只有10天的有效期，而疫情之前的有效期长达180天，这说明了价格变动的速度有多快。</blockquote>“Inflation pressures reported by business contacts seem to be much more significant than the comments from the Fed itself would suggest,” say Simons and Markowska of Jefferies. “There is nothing in here that suggests business leaders expect input cost increases or higher selling prices will be ‘transitory.’”<blockquote>杰富瑞的西蒙斯和马考斯卡表示：“商业联系人报告的通胀压力似乎比美联储本身的评论所暗示的要大得多。”“这里没有任何迹象表明商界领袖预计投入成本增加或销售价格上涨将是‘暂时的’。”</blockquote>Ongoing optimism<blockquote>持续乐观</blockquote>Despite widespread shortages and pricing pressure, businesses across the country remain optimistic thanks to solid demand. Consumer spending has picked up from New York to Kansas City to San Francisco, and districts across the nation report tight customer inventories as firms race to replenish stocks.<blockquote>尽管普遍存在短缺和定价压力，但由于需求强劲，全国各地的企业仍然保持乐观。从纽约到堪萨斯城再到旧金山，消费者支出都有所回升，随着企业竞相补充库存，全国各地都报告客户库存紧张。</blockquote>“Contacts generally maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook,” the Boston Fed says, sentiment that comes through the latest beige book as businesses enjoy booming demand—even if they can’t sufficiently meet it.<blockquote>波士顿联储表示：“联系人总体上保持谨慎乐观的前景。”随着企业享受蓬勃发展的需求——即使他们无法充分满足需求，最新的褐皮书也体现了这种情绪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's Take on the Economy—From Growth to Inflation<blockquote>美联储对经济的看法——从增长到通胀</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's Take on the Economy—From Growth to Inflation<blockquote>美联储对经济的看法——从增长到通胀</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-06-03 14:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nEconomic activity across the U.S. sped up from early April to late May as vaccinated consumers returned to normal activities and businesses dropped pandemic restrictions.<blockquote>随着接种疫苗的消费者恢复正常活动以及企业取消大流行限制，美国各地的经济活动从4月初到5月底加速。</blockquote>That’s the main takeaway from the Federal Reserve’s latest beige book, which we read so you don’t have to. The collection of anecdotes gathered by the 12 regional Fed banks gives investors a look at the current economy from the ground, as described by businesses across the country.<blockquote>这是美联储最新褐皮书的主要结论，我们阅读该报告是为了让您不必阅读。12家地区联储银行收集的轶事让投资者从实地了解当前的经济，正如全国各地企业所描述的那样。</blockquote>“Looking at the description of growth, it is hard not to be optimistic,” say Jefferies economists Thomas Simons and Aneta Markowska. “Looking at the description of the labor market and inflation, however, that optimism fades somewhat.”<blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯(Thomas Simons)和阿内塔·马科夫斯卡(Aneta Markowska)表示：“看看对增长的描述，很难不感到乐观。”“然而，看看对劳动力市场和通货膨胀的描述，这种乐观情绪有所消退。”</blockquote>From growth to inflation, here are the main themes jumping out of the book released Wednesday.<blockquote>从增长到通胀，以下是周三发行的书中跳出的主题。</blockquote>Economic expansion<blockquote>经济扩张</blockquote>The national economy expanded at a “moderate pace” over the past two month or so, a somewhat faster rate than the prior reporting period, the beige book says. Several districts cited the positive effects of increased vaccination rates and relaxed social distancing measures. Manufacturing boomed and activity across the leisure, hospitality and tourism industries strengthened.<blockquote>褐皮书称，在过去两个月左右的时间里，国民经济以“温和的速度”扩张，比上一个报告期略快。几个地区列举了提高疫苗接种率和放松社会距离措施的积极影响。制造业蓬勃发展，休闲、酒店和旅游业的活动加强。</blockquote>As the Boston Fed put it: Restaurants across Massachusetts experienced a dramatic uptick in sales in April and May, with recent revenues exceeding those in the same period of 2019. The return of widespread outdoor dining fueled the initial surge in sales, but more recently dining room sales also increased. That’s having a knock-on effect; strong restaurant sales are buoying retail property leasing, the district reported.<blockquote>正如波士顿联储所说：马萨诸塞州各地的餐馆在4月和5月销售额大幅增长，近期收入超过了2019年同期。广泛的户外用餐的回归推动了最初的销售额激增，但最近餐厅的销售额也有所增加。这会产生连锁反应。据该地区报道，强劲的餐馆销售提振了零售物业租赁。</blockquote>Supply-chain disruptions<blockquote>供应链中断</blockquote>Growth would be even better if not for severe supply-chain disruptions.Light vehicle sales remained solid but were constrained by tight inventories, while significant supply chain challenges continued to disrupt factory production and construction activity. Home builders across the nation reported strong demand, supported by low mortgage rates, outpaced their capacity to build and prompted some to limit sales.<blockquote>如果没有严重的供应链中断，增长会更好。轻型汽车销售保持稳健，但受到库存紧张的限制，而重大的供应链挑战继续扰乱工厂生产和建设活动。全国各地的房屋建筑商报告称，在低抵押贷款利率的支持下，需求强劲，超过了他们的建设能力，并促使一些人限制销售。</blockquote>Some form of “supply chain problems” appeared 29 times in the beige book. Every district reported trouble. In Cleveland, “supply chain bottlenecks were constraining growth by causing extended lead times, depleted inventories, and escalating materials and transportation costs.” And in Chicago, “contacts noted that supply chain issues had worsened, particularly for raw materials, microchips, and specialty parts. They expected little improvement through the end of the year,” the book says.<blockquote>某种形式的“供应链问题”在褐皮书中出现了29次。每个区都报告了麻烦。在克利夫兰，“供应链瓶颈导致交货时间延长、库存耗尽以及材料和运输成本上升，从而限制了增长。”在芝加哥，“联系人指出，供应链问题已经恶化，特别是原材料、微芯片和特种零件。他们预计到今年年底几乎不会有什么改善，”这本书说。</blockquote>Labor shortage<blockquote>劳动力短缺</blockquote>Workers are chief among inputs that are in short supply. Difficulties in hiring are exacerbating supply-chain disruptions and inflating prices, impeding growth and cutting into some companies’ profits.<blockquote>工人是供应短缺的主要投入。招聘困难加剧了供应链中断和价格上涨，阻碍了增长并削减了一些公司的利润。</blockquote>While labor shortages have been concentrated in lower-paying industries, there are signs the problem is spreading. “Reports of labor shortages were more widespread across sectors and skill levels than the last report,” the Dallas Fed reports.<blockquote>虽然劳动力短缺集中在工资较低的行业，但有迹象表明这个问题正在蔓延。达拉斯联储报告称：“与上次报告相比，劳动力短缺的报告在各个行业和技能水平上更加普遍。”</blockquote>Many businesses ranked staffing as a top concern, the New York Fed says, pointing to a combination of workers’ health concerns, child-care constraints, and generous unemployment benefits. A major New York City employment agency noted a significant increase in hiring and a greater sense of urgency to fill open positions, and a substantial proportion of businesses across all major industry sectors plan to raise wages, the district adds.<blockquote>纽约联储表示，许多企业将人员配备列为首要问题，并指出工人健康问题、儿童保育限制和慷慨的失业救济金等因素综合作用。该地区补充说，纽约市一家主要职业介绍所指出，招聘人数大幅增加，填补空缺职位的紧迫感也更加强烈，所有主要行业的很大一部分企业都计划提高工资。</blockquote>In San Francisco, employers in the construction, manufacturing, technology, retail, healthcare, restaurant, and hospitality sectors raised wages to retain and attract workers for both high- and low-skilled jobs. In addition to raising wages, these employers offered incentives such as sign-on bonuses, reduced or flexible hours, and the ability to work remotely, the regional bank notes.<blockquote>在旧金山，建筑、制造、技术、零售、医疗保健、餐馆和酒店行业的雇主提高了工资，以留住和吸引高技能和低技能工作的工人。该地区银行指出，除了提高工资外，这些雇主还提供了签约奖金、减少或灵活工作时间以及远程工作能力等激励措施。</blockquote>Overall, the beige book says, the lack of job candidates prevented some firms from increasing output and, less commonly, led some businesses to reduce operating hours.<blockquote>褐皮书称，总体而言，求职者的缺乏阻碍了一些公司增加产量，并且在不太常见的情况下导致一些企业减少营业时间。</blockquote>Rising prices<blockquote>物价上涨</blockquote>Overall price pressures increased further since the last report, the book says, and&nbsp;businesses anticipate further acceleration in the months ahead.<blockquote>该书称，自上次报告以来，整体价格压力进一步增加，企业预计未来几个月价格压力将进一步加速。</blockquote>“Looking ahead one year, the prices that firms anticipate receiving for their own goods and services rose further still—after the firms reported moderately high expectations last quarter,” says the Philadelphia Fed. “Unlike in prior quarters, firms now expect general consumer inflation to be even higher than firm prices,” a signal that firms are starting to pass through more of the price inflation they’re experiencing—and red flag that hot inflation may not be so temporary.&nbsp;<blockquote>费城联储表示：“展望未来一年，在企业上季度报告了适度较高的预期之后，企业预期自己的商品和服务价格将进一步上涨。”“与前几个季度不同的是，企业现在预计总体消费者通胀甚至高于企业价格”，这是企业开始承受更多正在经历的价格通胀的信号，也是热通胀可能不会那么严重的危险信号。暂时的。</blockquote>In Cleveland, reports of firms’ raising their selling prices became more widespread. Contacts now expect it to take longer than previously anticipated for supply chain issues to be resolved, and that expectation is driving more aggressive pricing, the regional bank reports. About half of the bank’s contacts plan to raise their selling prices in the second half of the year, with most of those firms intending to do so in a way “that will at least preserve their margins.”<blockquote>在克利夫兰，有关公司提高售价的报道变得更加普遍。该地区银行报告称，联系人现在预计解决供应链问题需要比之前预期更长的时间，这种预期正在推动更激进的定价。该银行大约一半的联系人计划在今年下半年提高售价，其中大多数公司打算以“至少能保持利润率”的方式这样做。</blockquote>Illustrating how fast prices are moving, one real estate developer in Cleveland said quotes from general contractors were now valid for only 10 days, versus as many as 180 days prior to the pandemic.<blockquote>克利夫兰的一位房地产开发商表示，总承包商的报价现在只有10天的有效期，而疫情之前的有效期长达180天，这说明了价格变动的速度有多快。</blockquote>“Inflation pressures reported by business contacts seem to be much more significant than the comments from the Fed itself would suggest,” say Simons and Markowska of Jefferies. “There is nothing in here that suggests business leaders expect input cost increases or higher selling prices will be ‘transitory.’”<blockquote>杰富瑞的西蒙斯和马考斯卡表示：“商业联系人报告的通胀压力似乎比美联储本身的评论所暗示的要大得多。”“这里没有任何迹象表明商界领袖预计投入成本增加或销售价格上涨将是‘暂时的’。”</blockquote>Ongoing optimism<blockquote>持续乐观</blockquote>Despite widespread shortages and pricing pressure, businesses across the country remain optimistic thanks to solid demand. Consumer spending has picked up from New York to Kansas City to San Francisco, and districts across the nation report tight customer inventories as firms race to replenish stocks.<blockquote>尽管普遍存在短缺和定价压力，但由于需求强劲，全国各地的企业仍然保持乐观。从纽约到堪萨斯城再到旧金山，消费者支出都有所回升，随着企业竞相补充库存，全国各地都报告客户库存紧张。</blockquote>“Contacts generally maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook,” the Boston Fed says, sentiment that comes through the latest beige book as businesses enjoy booming demand—even if they can’t sufficiently meet it.<blockquote>波士顿联储表示：“联系人总体上保持谨慎乐观的前景。”随着企业享受蓬勃发展的需求——即使他们无法充分满足需求，最新的褐皮书也体现了这种情绪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/labor-shortages-supply-chain-woes-color-the-feds-latest-view-of-broad-economy-51622663753?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/labor-shortages-supply-chain-woes-color-the-feds-latest-view-of-broad-economy-51622663753?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143927575","content_text":"Economic activity across the U.S. sped up from early April to late May as vaccinated consumers returned to normal activities and businesses dropped pandemic restrictions.That’s the main takeaway from the Federal Reserve’s latest beige book, which we read so you don’t have to. The collection of anecdotes gathered by the 12 regional Fed banks gives investors a look at the current economy from the ground, as described by businesses across the country.“Looking at the description of growth, it is hard not to be optimistic,” say Jefferies economists Thomas Simons and Aneta Markowska. “Looking at the description of the labor market and inflation, however, that optimism fades somewhat.”From growth to inflation, here are the main themes jumping out of the book released Wednesday.Economic expansionThe national economy expanded at a “moderate pace” over the past two month or so, a somewhat faster rate than the prior reporting period, the beige book says. Several districts cited the positive effects of increased vaccination rates and relaxed social distancing measures. Manufacturing boomed and activity across the leisure, hospitality and tourism industries strengthened.As the Boston Fed put it: Restaurants across Massachusetts experienced a dramatic uptick in sales in April and May, with recent revenues exceeding those in the same period of 2019. The return of widespread outdoor dining fueled the initial surge in sales, but more recently dining room sales also increased. That’s having a knock-on effect; strong restaurant sales are buoying retail property leasing, the district reported.Supply-chain disruptionsGrowth would be even better if not for severe supply-chain disruptions.Light vehicle sales remained solid but were constrained by tight inventories, while significant supply chain challenges continued to disrupt factory production and construction activity. Home builders across the nation reported strong demand, supported by low mortgage rates, outpaced their capacity to build and prompted some to limit sales.Some form of “supply chain problems” appeared 29 times in the beige book. Every district reported trouble. In Cleveland, “supply chain bottlenecks were constraining growth by causing extended lead times, depleted inventories, and escalating materials and transportation costs.” And in Chicago, “contacts noted that supply chain issues had worsened, particularly for raw materials, microchips, and specialty parts. They expected little improvement through the end of the year,” the book says.Labor shortageWorkers are chief among inputs that are in short supply. Difficulties in hiring are exacerbating supply-chain disruptions and inflating prices, impeding growth and cutting into some companies’ profits.While labor shortages have been concentrated in lower-paying industries, there are signs the problem is spreading. “Reports of labor shortages were more widespread across sectors and skill levels than the last report,” the Dallas Fed reports.Many businesses ranked staffing as a top concern, the New York Fed says, pointing to a combination of workers’ health concerns, child-care constraints, and generous unemployment benefits. A major New York City employment agency noted a significant increase in hiring and a greater sense of urgency to fill open positions, and a substantial proportion of businesses across all major industry sectors plan to raise wages, the district adds.In San Francisco, employers in the construction, manufacturing, technology, retail, healthcare, restaurant, and hospitality sectors raised wages to retain and attract workers for both high- and low-skilled jobs. In addition to raising wages, these employers offered incentives such as sign-on bonuses, reduced or flexible hours, and the ability to work remotely, the regional bank notes.Overall, the beige book says, the lack of job candidates prevented some firms from increasing output and, less commonly, led some businesses to reduce operating hours.Rising pricesOverall price pressures increased further since the last report, the book says, and businesses anticipate further acceleration in the months ahead.“Looking ahead one year, the prices that firms anticipate receiving for their own goods and services rose further still—after the firms reported moderately high expectations last quarter,” says the Philadelphia Fed. “Unlike in prior quarters, firms now expect general consumer inflation to be even higher than firm prices,” a signal that firms are starting to pass through more of the price inflation they’re experiencing—and red flag that hot inflation may not be so temporary. In Cleveland, reports of firms’ raising their selling prices became more widespread. Contacts now expect it to take longer than previously anticipated for supply chain issues to be resolved, and that expectation is driving more aggressive pricing, the regional bank reports. About half of the bank’s contacts plan to raise their selling prices in the second half of the year, with most of those firms intending to do so in a way “that will at least preserve their margins.”Illustrating how fast prices are moving, one real estate developer in Cleveland said quotes from general contractors were now valid for only 10 days, versus as many as 180 days prior to the pandemic.“Inflation pressures reported by business contacts seem to be much more significant than the comments from the Fed itself would suggest,” say Simons and Markowska of Jefferies. “There is nothing in here that suggests business leaders expect input cost increases or higher selling prices will be ‘transitory.’”Ongoing optimismDespite widespread shortages and pricing pressure, businesses across the country remain optimistic thanks to solid demand. Consumer spending has picked up from New York to Kansas City to San Francisco, and districts across the nation report tight customer inventories as firms race to replenish stocks.“Contacts generally maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook,” the Boston Fed says, sentiment that comes through the latest beige book as businesses enjoy booming demand—even if they can’t sufficiently meet it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":283,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/111756314"}