DChia
2021-06-05
Wow. Pls like and comment pls
AMC Stock Is Up 3,100%. Should You Buy or Sell?<blockquote>AMC 股价上涨 3,100%。你应该买还是卖？</blockquote>
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Pls like and comment pls</p></body></html>","text":"Wow. Pls like and comment pls","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112131702","repostId":1132937041,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132937041","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622853341,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1132937041?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 08:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Stock Is Up 3,100%. Should You Buy or Sell?<blockquote>AMC 股价上涨 3,100%。你应该买还是卖？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132937041","media":"Barrons","summary":"Photo illustration by Chris Mihal / Dreamstime.com\nIn a market like this, popcorn can become a Buy s","content":"<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d95919779e01e359f19f34476e91d00\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Photo illustration by Chris Mihal / Dreamstime.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片插图：克里斯·米哈尔 / Dreamstime.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In a market like this, popcorn can become a Buy signal.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的市场中，爆米花可以成为买入信号。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC Entertainment Holdings jumped more than 95% to an all-time high of $62.55 this past Wednesday after the movie-theater chain announced a new rewards program for shareholders that includes a free large popcorn. The next day, a plan to sell 11.55 million shares (which eventually sold at an average price of $50.85) sent AMC (ticker: AMC) tumbling.</p><p><blockquote>上周三，AMC院线控股公司宣布了一项新的股东奖励计划，其中包括一份免费的大爆米花，该公司的股价上涨了 95% 以上，达到 62.55 美元的历史新高。第二天，一项出售 1155 万股股票的计划（最终以 50.85 美元的平均价格出售）导致 AMC（股票代码：AMC）暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> Even with Thursday’s decline, the stock has soared 297% over the past nine trading sessions, and is up an eye-popping 2,160% for the year.</p><p><blockquote>即使周四下跌，该股在过去九个交易日中仍飙升了 297%，今年上涨了 2,160%，令人瞠目。</blockquote></p><p> After GameStop(GME) and BlackBerry(BB), there seems to be little stopping the latest hot meme stock,not even a warning from AMC itself: “Under the circumstances, we caution you against investing in our Class A common stock, unless you are prepared to incur the risk of losing all or a substantial portion of your investment,” the company said on Thursday in the filing to sell the shares.</p><p><blockquote>继游戏驿站（GME）和黑莓（BB）之后，似乎没有什么能阻止最新的热门备忘录股票，甚至连 AMC 本身也没有发出警告： “在这种情况下，我们提醒您不要投资我们的 A 类普通股，除非您准备好承担全部或大部分投资损失的风险，”该公司周四在出售股票的文件中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier in the week, AMC sold 8.5 million shares to investment firm Mudrick Capital Management, which sold its stake at a profit that same day,Bloomberg reported. AMC called it a “very smart raising of cash so that we can grow this company.”</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，本周早些时候，AMC 向投资公司 Mudrick Capital Management 出售了 850 万股股票，后者在同一天出售了其股份并获利。AMC 称这是 “非常明智的现金筹集，这样我们就可以发展公司”。</blockquote></p><p> More dilution could be coming. The company will ask shareholders to authorize the sale of an additional 25 million shares, starting in 2022, at its annual meeting next month.</p><p><blockquote>更多的稀释可能会到来。该公司将在下个月的年会上要求股东授权从 2022 年开始额外出售 2500 万股股票。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the unusual warning and the dilution, some users doubled down on their enthusiasm for the stock in online forums this past week, noting that GameStop experienced similar volatility during its January rise. That just confounds and outrages traditional investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管发出了不同寻常的警告和稀释，但一些用户上周在在线论坛上加倍了对该股的热情，并指出游戏驿站在 1 月份上涨期间也经历了类似的波动。这只会让传统投资者感到困惑和愤怒。</blockquote></p><p> “The surge in shares of AMC Entertainment is yet another sign of the reckless meme-stock-driven investing landscape that we find ourselves in today,” David Trainer, CEO of investment research firm New Constructs, recently wrote. “Wall Street insiders are preying on the naiveté of retail meme-stock traders. There is no fundamental reason to be buying shares of AMC Entertainment.”</p><p><blockquote>“投资研究公司 New Constructs 的首席执行官大卫-特雷纳（David Trainer）最近写道：”AMC院线股价的飙升是我们今天所处的不计后果的迷因股票驱动的投资环境的又一个迹象。“华尔街内部人士正在利用零售迷因股票交易员的天真。没有基本的理由购买AMC院线的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Trying to identify a fundamental narrative that can justify AMC’s ascent is admittedly difficult. Still, it is an exercise that might provide some insights for investors.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，要找到一个能够证明 AMC 崛起合理性的基本说法是很困难的。尽管如此，这项工作可能会为投资者提供一些见解。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62d362d944fe5c0a23bee485799d1195\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"637\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> With the recent share sale, AMC has an enterprise value of about $35 billion, almost six times what it was at the end of 2018, a record-breaking year at the U.S. box office. At that time, the enterprise value for the three largest publicly traded theater operators was about 1.6 times the total domestic box office. (Theater chains typically have a lot of debt, making enterprise value a better measure.)</p><p><blockquote>随着最近的股票出售，AMC的企业价值约为350亿美元，几乎是2018年底的六倍，2018年底是美国票房创纪录的一年。当时，三大上市影院运营商的企业价值约为国内总票房的1.6倍。（连锁影院通常有大量债务，因此企业价值是一个更好的衡量标准。）</blockquote></p><p> AMC’s enterprise value is now about 17 times the dreadful, pandemic-affected domestic box office haul of just $2.1 billion in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 目前的企业价值约为 2020 年受大流行病影响的国内票房 21 亿美元的 17 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Roughly two-thirds of sales typically come from tickets. The rest comes from soda and, yes, popcorn. The challenge for the industry is whether enough moviegoers return and spend as they did before, after a year of staying home and streaming.</p><p><blockquote>大约三分之二的销售额通常来自门票。其余的来自苏打水，是的，还有爆米花。该行业面临的挑战是，在呆在家里和流媒体一年后，是否有足够多的电影观众回来并像以前一样消费。</blockquote></p><p> The business might go through a period of consolidation, as it did earlier this century, when a shift to stadium seating pushed some operators into bankruptcy and mergers. Regal Cinemas, one of the large U.S. theater chains, filed for bankruptcy in 2001. Coming out of bankruptcy, Regal became a cash-generating machine—fewer movie-theater operators helped. And fewer now could usher in another era of higher returns on investment and better cash generation.</p><p><blockquote>该业务可能会经历一段整合时期，就像本世纪早些时候一样，当时向体育场座位的转变迫使一些运营商破产和合并。富豪影院是美国大型连锁影院之一，于2001年申请破产。摆脱破产后，富豪成了一台赚钱机器——越来越少的电影院运营商提供帮助。现在，越来越少的人可以迎来另一个更高的投资回报和更好的现金生成时代。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, the hope is that AMC could be opportunistic in the postpandemic world, perhaps by making acquisitions. The recent gains in the stock have made that hope self-fulfilling, allowing the company to raise new capital—$1.25 billion through stock sales in this quarter alone.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，人们希望 AMC 能够在大流行后的世界中投机取巧，也许是通过收购。该股最近的上涨使这一希望得以实现，使该公司能够筹集新资本——仅本季度就通过股票销售筹集了 12.5 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “With our increased liquidity, an increasingly vaccinated population, and the imminent release of blockbuster new movie titles, it is time for AMC to go on the offense again,” CEO Adam Aron said this past Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>“AMC 首席执行官亚当-阿伦（Adam Aron）在上周二表示：”随着我们流动性的增加、接种疫苗的人口越来越多，以及新大片的即将上映，是时候让 AMC 再次发起进攻了。</blockquote></p><p> If AMC can boost market share, and if U.S. box office sales return to 2018 levels, the company’s total sales might hit $9 billion—$6 billion from tickets and $3 billion from concessions. Sales in 2018 were $5.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果 AMC 能够提高市场份额，如果美国票房恢复到 2018 年的水平，该公司的总销售额可能会达到 90 亿美元--60 亿美元来自门票，30 亿美元来自特许经营权。2018年销售额为55亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Then, if profit margins improve with better industry scale, and if AMC’s investment in new theaters can drop as new capacity isn’t really needed, the company might be able to generate $600 million in free cash flow annually. That is about three times the cash-generating potential of prior, prepandemic years.</p><p><blockquote>然后，如果利润率随着行业规模的扩大而提高，如果 AMC 对新影院的投资可能会下降，因为并不真正需要新的产能，那么该公司每年可能会产生 6 亿美元的自由现金流。这大约是大流行前几年现金产生潜力的三倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With $600 million in free cash flow, the stock’s free-cash-flow yield works out to about 2.4%, based on recent prices. That yield makes the stock look expensive, but not completely unreasonable. The S&P 500 index trades for about a 3.4% free-cash-flow yield; other consumer-discretionary stocks in the S&P trade at a free-cash-flow yield of about 3.1%.</p><p><blockquote>凭借 6 亿美元的自由现金流，根据最近的价格计算，该股的自由现金流收益率约为 2.4%。这个收益率让股票看起来很昂贵，但并非完全不合理。标普500指数的自由现金流收益率约为 3.4%；标准普尔指数中的其他非必需消费品股票的自由现金流收益率约为 3.1%。</blockquote></p><p> While that may offer a faint glimmer of hope for fundamental investors, there are problems with the $600 million free-cash-flow scenario. There are a lot of ifs and mights—and AMC has never generated cash flow like that in the past.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这可能会给基本面投资者带来一线希望，但 6 亿美元的自由现金流情景存在问题。有很多如果和可能——而 AMC 过去从未产生过这样的现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Consolidation in the industry is also no guarantee of success. AMC’s share of the market might rise, but there are still competitors: Regal Cinemas, now owned by Cineworld Group(CINE.UK), and Cinemark Holdings(CNK).</p><p><blockquote>行业整合也不能保证成功。AMC 的市场份额可能会上升，但仍有竞争对手： 富豪影院（Regal Cinemas，现归 Cineworld Group（CINE.UK）所有）和 Cinemark Holdings（CNK）所有。</blockquote></p><p> Neither one is trading like AMC: Cineworld stock is up 283% from its 52-week low, but is off 78% from all-time highs, while Cinemark shares are up 183% from their 52-week low, but down 51% from their all-time high. AMC stock, by comparison, is up 2,320% from its 52-week low.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的交易都不像 AMC：Cineworld 股价较 52 周低点上涨 283%，但较历史高点下跌 78%，而 Cinemark 股价较 52 周低点上涨 183%，但较历史高点下跌 51%。相比之下，AMC 股价较 52 周低点上涨了 2,320%。</blockquote></p><p> And AMC and its peers also have to compete with streaming. Windows for exclusive theater showings are shrinking, and the pandemic has accelerated that.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 及其同行也必须与流媒体竞争。独家影院放映的窗口正在缩小，而疫情加速了这一进程。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street doesn’t see the potential. Ten analysts cover the stock, and the average price target is $5.25. The highest is $18 a share. Before the pandemic, the average analyst price target was $15. There were fewer shares of AMC at the time. The old target prices implied an enterprise value of roughly $7 billion—a far cry from $35 billion.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街看不到潜力。十名分析师关注该股，平均目标价为 5.25 美元。最高为每股18美元。在大流行之前，分析师的平均目标价为 15 美元。当时AMC的股票较少。旧的目标价意味着企业价值约为 70 亿美元，与 350 亿美元相去甚远。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts do, however, have positive free cash flow projected for AMC in the future—about $13 million in 2022 and $90 million in 2023.</p><p><blockquote>然而，分析师确实预计 AMC 未来的自由现金流为正——2022 年约为 1300 万美元，2023 年约为 9000 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> At these levels, the fundamental case for AMC stock is, to put it mildly, a stretch. Yet overvaluation alone is never a good reason to sell a stock short, betting on a price decline. High numbers of shares shorted are typically an element in the meme-fueled rises. These days, the risk of short squeezes has become far larger than the potential gain from the market realizing that a stock is too expensive.</p><p><blockquote>在这些水平上，AMC 股票的基本面情况，说得委婉些，是一个拉伸。然而，仅仅估值过高从来都不是卖空股票、押注价格下跌的好理由。大量股票被做空通常是模因推动的上涨的一个因素。如今，空头挤压的风险已经远远大于市场意识到一只股票太贵所带来的潜在收益。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, investing and trading are different skills. Both can make people money. The important thing is not to confuse the two.</p><p><blockquote>说到底，投资和交易是不同的技能。两者都能让人赚钱。重要的是不要混淆两者。</blockquote></p><p> AMC investors may understand that. “I think that for most of the retail investors that you see buying quote-unquote meme stocks, it really is to prove a point,” says Natalie Camacho, a 27-year-old writer from California’s San Fernando Valley.</p><p><blockquote>AMC投资者可能理解这一点。“来自加利福尼亚州圣费尔南多谷的 27 岁作家娜塔莉-卡马乔（Natalie Camacho）说：”我认为，对于你看到的大多数散户投资者来说，这确实是为了证明一个观点。</blockquote></p><p> She says she bought 11 shares of AMC in January for $100 as the meme-stock wave began to build. She expected the company to benefit by the reopening from Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>她说，随着模因股票浪潮开始兴起，她在 1 月份以 100 美元的价格购买了 11 股 AMC 股票。她预计该公司将受益于 Covid-19 的重新开放。</blockquote></p><p> Camacho says that she had felt as if the world of investing was closed to her, because she didn’t have $10,000 to put into stocks. On social media, the AMC trade has been portrayed as a battle of the little guys against the big Wall Street firms, which appeals to her.</p><p><blockquote>卡马乔说，她觉得投资的世界对她关闭了，因为她没有 1 万美元可以投资股票。在社交媒体上，AMC交易被描绘成小人物与华尔街大公司之间的斗争，这对她很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> “What draws me to it is that communal sense, that we’re all in this together,” she says. “There’s a sense that if we pool our money together, we might not be rich, but we’ll have enough to make a difference.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”吸引我的是这种集体感，我们都在一起。“有一种感觉，如果我们把钱集中在一起，我们可能不会变得富有，但我们会有足够的钱有所作为”。</blockquote></p><p> Regardless of how it plays out, she is betting with money she can afford to lose. As of Thursday morning, her $100 investment had grown to $460. “Maybe it’s a long-term bad idea, but for now we’re holding,” she says.</p><p><blockquote>不管结果如何，她都是在用自己输得起的钱下注。截至周四上午，她100美元的投资已经增加到460美元。“她说：”从长远来看，这可能是个坏主意，但目前我们还是坚持下去。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Stock Is Up 3,100%. Should You Buy or Sell?<blockquote>AMC 股价上涨 3,100%。你应该买还是卖？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Stock Is Up 3,100%. Should You Buy or Sell?<blockquote>AMC 股价上涨 3,100%。你应该买还是卖？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 08:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d95919779e01e359f19f34476e91d00\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Photo illustration by Chris Mihal / Dreamstime.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片插图：克里斯·米哈尔 / Dreamstime.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In a market like this, popcorn can become a Buy signal.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的市场中，爆米花可以成为买入信号。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC Entertainment Holdings jumped more than 95% to an all-time high of $62.55 this past Wednesday after the movie-theater chain announced a new rewards program for shareholders that includes a free large popcorn. The next day, a plan to sell 11.55 million shares (which eventually sold at an average price of $50.85) sent AMC (ticker: AMC) tumbling.</p><p><blockquote>上周三，AMC院线控股公司宣布了一项新的股东奖励计划，其中包括一份免费的大爆米花，该公司的股价上涨了 95% 以上，达到 62.55 美元的历史新高。第二天，一项出售 1155 万股股票的计划（最终以 50.85 美元的平均价格出售）导致 AMC（股票代码：AMC）暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> Even with Thursday’s decline, the stock has soared 297% over the past nine trading sessions, and is up an eye-popping 2,160% for the year.</p><p><blockquote>即使周四下跌，该股在过去九个交易日中仍飙升了 297%，今年上涨了 2,160%，令人瞠目。</blockquote></p><p> After GameStop(GME) and BlackBerry(BB), there seems to be little stopping the latest hot meme stock,not even a warning from AMC itself: “Under the circumstances, we caution you against investing in our Class A common stock, unless you are prepared to incur the risk of losing all or a substantial portion of your investment,” the company said on Thursday in the filing to sell the shares.</p><p><blockquote>继游戏驿站（GME）和黑莓（BB）之后，似乎没有什么能阻止最新的热门备忘录股票，甚至连 AMC 本身也没有发出警告： “在这种情况下，我们提醒您不要投资我们的 A 类普通股，除非您准备好承担全部或大部分投资损失的风险，”该公司周四在出售股票的文件中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier in the week, AMC sold 8.5 million shares to investment firm Mudrick Capital Management, which sold its stake at a profit that same day,Bloomberg reported. AMC called it a “very smart raising of cash so that we can grow this company.”</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，本周早些时候，AMC 向投资公司 Mudrick Capital Management 出售了 850 万股股票，后者在同一天出售了其股份并获利。AMC 称这是 “非常明智的现金筹集，这样我们就可以发展公司”。</blockquote></p><p> More dilution could be coming. The company will ask shareholders to authorize the sale of an additional 25 million shares, starting in 2022, at its annual meeting next month.</p><p><blockquote>更多的稀释可能会到来。该公司将在下个月的年会上要求股东授权从 2022 年开始额外出售 2500 万股股票。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the unusual warning and the dilution, some users doubled down on their enthusiasm for the stock in online forums this past week, noting that GameStop experienced similar volatility during its January rise. That just confounds and outrages traditional investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管发出了不同寻常的警告和稀释，但一些用户上周在在线论坛上加倍了对该股的热情，并指出游戏驿站在 1 月份上涨期间也经历了类似的波动。这只会让传统投资者感到困惑和愤怒。</blockquote></p><p> “The surge in shares of AMC Entertainment is yet another sign of the reckless meme-stock-driven investing landscape that we find ourselves in today,” David Trainer, CEO of investment research firm New Constructs, recently wrote. “Wall Street insiders are preying on the naiveté of retail meme-stock traders. There is no fundamental reason to be buying shares of AMC Entertainment.”</p><p><blockquote>“投资研究公司 New Constructs 的首席执行官大卫-特雷纳（David Trainer）最近写道：”AMC院线股价的飙升是我们今天所处的不计后果的迷因股票驱动的投资环境的又一个迹象。“华尔街内部人士正在利用零售迷因股票交易员的天真。没有基本的理由购买AMC院线的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Trying to identify a fundamental narrative that can justify AMC’s ascent is admittedly difficult. Still, it is an exercise that might provide some insights for investors.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，要找到一个能够证明 AMC 崛起合理性的基本说法是很困难的。尽管如此，这项工作可能会为投资者提供一些见解。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62d362d944fe5c0a23bee485799d1195\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"637\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> With the recent share sale, AMC has an enterprise value of about $35 billion, almost six times what it was at the end of 2018, a record-breaking year at the U.S. box office. At that time, the enterprise value for the three largest publicly traded theater operators was about 1.6 times the total domestic box office. (Theater chains typically have a lot of debt, making enterprise value a better measure.)</p><p><blockquote>随着最近的股票出售，AMC的企业价值约为350亿美元，几乎是2018年底的六倍，2018年底是美国票房创纪录的一年。当时，三大上市影院运营商的企业价值约为国内总票房的1.6倍。（连锁影院通常有大量债务，因此企业价值是一个更好的衡量标准。）</blockquote></p><p> AMC’s enterprise value is now about 17 times the dreadful, pandemic-affected domestic box office haul of just $2.1 billion in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 目前的企业价值约为 2020 年受大流行病影响的国内票房 21 亿美元的 17 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Roughly two-thirds of sales typically come from tickets. The rest comes from soda and, yes, popcorn. The challenge for the industry is whether enough moviegoers return and spend as they did before, after a year of staying home and streaming.</p><p><blockquote>大约三分之二的销售额通常来自门票。其余的来自苏打水，是的，还有爆米花。该行业面临的挑战是，在呆在家里和流媒体一年后，是否有足够多的电影观众回来并像以前一样消费。</blockquote></p><p> The business might go through a period of consolidation, as it did earlier this century, when a shift to stadium seating pushed some operators into bankruptcy and mergers. Regal Cinemas, one of the large U.S. theater chains, filed for bankruptcy in 2001. Coming out of bankruptcy, Regal became a cash-generating machine—fewer movie-theater operators helped. And fewer now could usher in another era of higher returns on investment and better cash generation.</p><p><blockquote>该业务可能会经历一段整合时期，就像本世纪早些时候一样，当时向体育场座位的转变迫使一些运营商破产和合并。富豪影院是美国大型连锁影院之一，于2001年申请破产。摆脱破产后，富豪成了一台赚钱机器——越来越少的电影院运营商提供帮助。现在，越来越少的人可以迎来另一个更高的投资回报和更好的现金生成时代。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, the hope is that AMC could be opportunistic in the postpandemic world, perhaps by making acquisitions. The recent gains in the stock have made that hope self-fulfilling, allowing the company to raise new capital—$1.25 billion through stock sales in this quarter alone.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，人们希望 AMC 能够在大流行后的世界中投机取巧，也许是通过收购。该股最近的上涨使这一希望得以实现，使该公司能够筹集新资本——仅本季度就通过股票销售筹集了 12.5 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “With our increased liquidity, an increasingly vaccinated population, and the imminent release of blockbuster new movie titles, it is time for AMC to go on the offense again,” CEO Adam Aron said this past Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>“AMC 首席执行官亚当-阿伦（Adam Aron）在上周二表示：”随着我们流动性的增加、接种疫苗的人口越来越多，以及新大片的即将上映，是时候让 AMC 再次发起进攻了。</blockquote></p><p> If AMC can boost market share, and if U.S. box office sales return to 2018 levels, the company’s total sales might hit $9 billion—$6 billion from tickets and $3 billion from concessions. Sales in 2018 were $5.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果 AMC 能够提高市场份额，如果美国票房恢复到 2018 年的水平，该公司的总销售额可能会达到 90 亿美元--60 亿美元来自门票，30 亿美元来自特许经营权。2018年销售额为55亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Then, if profit margins improve with better industry scale, and if AMC’s investment in new theaters can drop as new capacity isn’t really needed, the company might be able to generate $600 million in free cash flow annually. That is about three times the cash-generating potential of prior, prepandemic years.</p><p><blockquote>然后，如果利润率随着行业规模的扩大而提高，如果 AMC 对新影院的投资可能会下降，因为并不真正需要新的产能，那么该公司每年可能会产生 6 亿美元的自由现金流。这大约是大流行前几年现金产生潜力的三倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With $600 million in free cash flow, the stock’s free-cash-flow yield works out to about 2.4%, based on recent prices. That yield makes the stock look expensive, but not completely unreasonable. The S&P 500 index trades for about a 3.4% free-cash-flow yield; other consumer-discretionary stocks in the S&P trade at a free-cash-flow yield of about 3.1%.</p><p><blockquote>凭借 6 亿美元的自由现金流，根据最近的价格计算，该股的自由现金流收益率约为 2.4%。这个收益率让股票看起来很昂贵，但并非完全不合理。标普500指数的自由现金流收益率约为 3.4%；标准普尔指数中的其他非必需消费品股票的自由现金流收益率约为 3.1%。</blockquote></p><p> While that may offer a faint glimmer of hope for fundamental investors, there are problems with the $600 million free-cash-flow scenario. There are a lot of ifs and mights—and AMC has never generated cash flow like that in the past.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这可能会给基本面投资者带来一线希望，但 6 亿美元的自由现金流情景存在问题。有很多如果和可能——而 AMC 过去从未产生过这样的现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Consolidation in the industry is also no guarantee of success. AMC’s share of the market might rise, but there are still competitors: Regal Cinemas, now owned by Cineworld Group(CINE.UK), and Cinemark Holdings(CNK).</p><p><blockquote>行业整合也不能保证成功。AMC 的市场份额可能会上升，但仍有竞争对手： 富豪影院（Regal Cinemas，现归 Cineworld Group（CINE.UK）所有）和 Cinemark Holdings（CNK）所有。</blockquote></p><p> Neither one is trading like AMC: Cineworld stock is up 283% from its 52-week low, but is off 78% from all-time highs, while Cinemark shares are up 183% from their 52-week low, but down 51% from their all-time high. AMC stock, by comparison, is up 2,320% from its 52-week low.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的交易都不像 AMC：Cineworld 股价较 52 周低点上涨 283%，但较历史高点下跌 78%，而 Cinemark 股价较 52 周低点上涨 183%，但较历史高点下跌 51%。相比之下，AMC 股价较 52 周低点上涨了 2,320%。</blockquote></p><p> And AMC and its peers also have to compete with streaming. Windows for exclusive theater showings are shrinking, and the pandemic has accelerated that.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 及其同行也必须与流媒体竞争。独家影院放映的窗口正在缩小，而疫情加速了这一进程。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street doesn’t see the potential. Ten analysts cover the stock, and the average price target is $5.25. The highest is $18 a share. Before the pandemic, the average analyst price target was $15. There were fewer shares of AMC at the time. The old target prices implied an enterprise value of roughly $7 billion—a far cry from $35 billion.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街看不到潜力。十名分析师关注该股，平均目标价为 5.25 美元。最高为每股18美元。在大流行之前，分析师的平均目标价为 15 美元。当时AMC的股票较少。旧的目标价意味着企业价值约为 70 亿美元，与 350 亿美元相去甚远。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts do, however, have positive free cash flow projected for AMC in the future—about $13 million in 2022 and $90 million in 2023.</p><p><blockquote>然而，分析师确实预计 AMC 未来的自由现金流为正——2022 年约为 1300 万美元，2023 年约为 9000 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> At these levels, the fundamental case for AMC stock is, to put it mildly, a stretch. Yet overvaluation alone is never a good reason to sell a stock short, betting on a price decline. High numbers of shares shorted are typically an element in the meme-fueled rises. These days, the risk of short squeezes has become far larger than the potential gain from the market realizing that a stock is too expensive.</p><p><blockquote>在这些水平上，AMC 股票的基本面情况，说得委婉些，是一个拉伸。然而，仅仅估值过高从来都不是卖空股票、押注价格下跌的好理由。大量股票被做空通常是模因推动的上涨的一个因素。如今，空头挤压的风险已经远远大于市场意识到一只股票太贵所带来的潜在收益。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, investing and trading are different skills. Both can make people money. The important thing is not to confuse the two.</p><p><blockquote>说到底，投资和交易是不同的技能。两者都能让人赚钱。重要的是不要混淆两者。</blockquote></p><p> AMC investors may understand that. “I think that for most of the retail investors that you see buying quote-unquote meme stocks, it really is to prove a point,” says Natalie Camacho, a 27-year-old writer from California’s San Fernando Valley.</p><p><blockquote>AMC投资者可能理解这一点。“来自加利福尼亚州圣费尔南多谷的 27 岁作家娜塔莉-卡马乔（Natalie Camacho）说：”我认为，对于你看到的大多数散户投资者来说，这确实是为了证明一个观点。</blockquote></p><p> She says she bought 11 shares of AMC in January for $100 as the meme-stock wave began to build. She expected the company to benefit by the reopening from Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>她说，随着模因股票浪潮开始兴起，她在 1 月份以 100 美元的价格购买了 11 股 AMC 股票。她预计该公司将受益于 Covid-19 的重新开放。</blockquote></p><p> Camacho says that she had felt as if the world of investing was closed to her, because she didn’t have $10,000 to put into stocks. On social media, the AMC trade has been portrayed as a battle of the little guys against the big Wall Street firms, which appeals to her.</p><p><blockquote>卡马乔说，她觉得投资的世界对她关闭了，因为她没有 1 万美元可以投资股票。在社交媒体上，AMC交易被描绘成小人物与华尔街大公司之间的斗争，这对她很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> “What draws me to it is that communal sense, that we’re all in this together,” she says. “There’s a sense that if we pool our money together, we might not be rich, but we’ll have enough to make a difference.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”吸引我的是这种集体感，我们都在一起。“有一种感觉，如果我们把钱集中在一起，我们可能不会变得富有，但我们会有足够的钱有所作为”。</blockquote></p><p> Regardless of how it plays out, she is betting with money she can afford to lose. As of Thursday morning, her $100 investment had grown to $460. “Maybe it’s a long-term bad idea, but for now we’re holding,” she says.</p><p><blockquote>不管结果如何，她都是在用自己输得起的钱下注。截至周四上午，她100美元的投资已经增加到460美元。“她说：”从长远来看，这可能是个坏主意，但目前我们还是坚持下去。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-sell-amc-stock-51622844305?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-sell-amc-stock-51622844305?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132937041","content_text":"Photo illustration by Chris Mihal / Dreamstime.com\nIn a market like this, popcorn can become a Buy signal.\nShares of AMC Entertainment Holdings jumped more than 95% to an all-time high of $62.55 this past Wednesday after the movie-theater chain announced a new rewards program for shareholders that includes a free large popcorn. The next day, a plan to sell 11.55 million shares (which eventually sold at an average price of $50.85) sent AMC (ticker: AMC) tumbling.\nEven with Thursday’s decline, the stock has soared 297% over the past nine trading sessions, and is up an eye-popping 2,160% for the year.\nAfter GameStop(GME) and BlackBerry(BB), there seems to be little stopping the latest hot meme stock,not even a warning from AMC itself: “Under the circumstances, we caution you against investing in our Class A common stock, unless you are prepared to incur the risk of losing all or a substantial portion of your investment,” the company said on Thursday in the filing to sell the shares.\nEarlier in the week, AMC sold 8.5 million shares to investment firm Mudrick Capital Management, which sold its stake at a profit that same day,Bloomberg reported. AMC called it a “very smart raising of cash so that we can grow this company.”\nMore dilution could be coming. The company will ask shareholders to authorize the sale of an additional 25 million shares, starting in 2022, at its annual meeting next month.\nDespite the unusual warning and the dilution, some users doubled down on their enthusiasm for the stock in online forums this past week, noting that GameStop experienced similar volatility during its January rise. That just confounds and outrages traditional investors.\n“The surge in shares of AMC Entertainment is yet another sign of the reckless meme-stock-driven investing landscape that we find ourselves in today,” David Trainer, CEO of investment research firm New Constructs, recently wrote. “Wall Street insiders are preying on the naiveté of retail meme-stock traders. There is no fundamental reason to be buying shares of AMC Entertainment.”\nTrying to identify a fundamental narrative that can justify AMC’s ascent is admittedly difficult. Still, it is an exercise that might provide some insights for investors.\n\nWith the recent share sale, AMC has an enterprise value of about $35 billion, almost six times what it was at the end of 2018, a record-breaking year at the U.S. box office. At that time, the enterprise value for the three largest publicly traded theater operators was about 1.6 times the total domestic box office. (Theater chains typically have a lot of debt, making enterprise value a better measure.)\nAMC’s enterprise value is now about 17 times the dreadful, pandemic-affected domestic box office haul of just $2.1 billion in 2020.\nRoughly two-thirds of sales typically come from tickets. The rest comes from soda and, yes, popcorn. The challenge for the industry is whether enough moviegoers return and spend as they did before, after a year of staying home and streaming.\nThe business might go through a period of consolidation, as it did earlier this century, when a shift to stadium seating pushed some operators into bankruptcy and mergers. Regal Cinemas, one of the large U.S. theater chains, filed for bankruptcy in 2001. Coming out of bankruptcy, Regal became a cash-generating machine—fewer movie-theater operators helped. And fewer now could usher in another era of higher returns on investment and better cash generation.\nIndeed, the hope is that AMC could be opportunistic in the postpandemic world, perhaps by making acquisitions. The recent gains in the stock have made that hope self-fulfilling, allowing the company to raise new capital—$1.25 billion through stock sales in this quarter alone.\n“With our increased liquidity, an increasingly vaccinated population, and the imminent release of blockbuster new movie titles, it is time for AMC to go on the offense again,” CEO Adam Aron said this past Tuesday.\nIf AMC can boost market share, and if U.S. box office sales return to 2018 levels, the company’s total sales might hit $9 billion—$6 billion from tickets and $3 billion from concessions. Sales in 2018 were $5.5 billion.\nThen, if profit margins improve with better industry scale, and if AMC’s investment in new theaters can drop as new capacity isn’t really needed, the company might be able to generate $600 million in free cash flow annually. That is about three times the cash-generating potential of prior, prepandemic years.\nWith $600 million in free cash flow, the stock’s free-cash-flow yield works out to about 2.4%, based on recent prices. That yield makes the stock look expensive, but not completely unreasonable. The S&P 500 index trades for about a 3.4% free-cash-flow yield; other consumer-discretionary stocks in the S&P trade at a free-cash-flow yield of about 3.1%.\nWhile that may offer a faint glimmer of hope for fundamental investors, there are problems with the $600 million free-cash-flow scenario. There are a lot of ifs and mights—and AMC has never generated cash flow like that in the past.\nConsolidation in the industry is also no guarantee of success. AMC’s share of the market might rise, but there are still competitors: Regal Cinemas, now owned by Cineworld Group(CINE.UK), and Cinemark Holdings(CNK).\nNeither one is trading like AMC: Cineworld stock is up 283% from its 52-week low, but is off 78% from all-time highs, while Cinemark shares are up 183% from their 52-week low, but down 51% from their all-time high. AMC stock, by comparison, is up 2,320% from its 52-week low.\nAnd AMC and its peers also have to compete with streaming. Windows for exclusive theater showings are shrinking, and the pandemic has accelerated that.\nWall Street doesn’t see the potential. Ten analysts cover the stock, and the average price target is $5.25. The highest is $18 a share. Before the pandemic, the average analyst price target was $15. There were fewer shares of AMC at the time. The old target prices implied an enterprise value of roughly $7 billion—a far cry from $35 billion.\nAnalysts do, however, have positive free cash flow projected for AMC in the future—about $13 million in 2022 and $90 million in 2023.\nAt these levels, the fundamental case for AMC stock is, to put it mildly, a stretch. Yet overvaluation alone is never a good reason to sell a stock short, betting on a price decline. High numbers of shares shorted are typically an element in the meme-fueled rises. These days, the risk of short squeezes has become far larger than the potential gain from the market realizing that a stock is too expensive.\nIn the end, investing and trading are different skills. Both can make people money. The important thing is not to confuse the two.\nAMC investors may understand that. “I think that for most of the retail investors that you see buying quote-unquote meme stocks, it really is to prove a point,” says Natalie Camacho, a 27-year-old writer from California’s San Fernando Valley.\nShe says she bought 11 shares of AMC in January for $100 as the meme-stock wave began to build. She expected the company to benefit by the reopening from Covid-19.\nCamacho says that she had felt as if the world of investing was closed to her, because she didn’t have $10,000 to put into stocks. On social media, the AMC trade has been portrayed as a battle of the little guys against the big Wall Street firms, which appeals to her.\n“What draws me to it is that communal sense, that we’re all in this together,” she says. “There’s a sense that if we pool our money together, we might not be rich, but we’ll have enough to make a difference.”\nRegardless of how it plays out, she is betting with money she can afford to lose. As of Thursday morning, her $100 investment had grown to $460. “Maybe it’s a long-term bad idea, but for now we’re holding,” she says.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":596,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":24,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/112131702"}
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