Calvingoh93
2021-06-02
Oh no. 😭😭
Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价下跌30%？在熊的头脑里</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
7
2
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":113354338,"tweetId":"113354338","gmtCreate":1622595635224,"gmtModify":1631893670651,"author":{"id":3583902158543371,"idStr":"3583902158543371","authorId":3583902158543371,"authorIdStr":"3583902158543371","name":"Calvingoh93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f39861e6ea06d8827da08f30bde8394c","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":43,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Oh no. 😭😭</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Oh no. 😭😭</p></body></html>","text":"Oh no. 😭😭","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113354338","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价下跌30%？在熊的头脑里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"<p>There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?</p><p><blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会从当前水平下跌约 30% 吗？</blockquote></p><p> Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.</p><p><blockquote>又一只熊从洞穴里出现了。New Street 的 Pierre Ferragu 认为，苹果的股票现在是卖出，从他之前的中性立场下调，股价可能会从目前的水平下跌近 30%，仅为 90 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心世界，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\"><span>Figure 1: Wall Street bear.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：华尔街熊。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>“12S cycle” coming up?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“12S周期”即将到来？</b></blockquote></p><p> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.</p><p><blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果熊。高盛著名的怀疑论者罗德·霍尔在这家库比蒂诺公司公布了创纪录的第二财季后终于认输了。Wolfe Research 的 Jeff Kvaal 维持卖出评级，但目标价高达 125 美元，表明下行风险极小。</blockquote></p><p> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果 iPhone 升级浪潮中最精彩的部分，即所谓的 5G 超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜里。这位分析师认为，这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机很可能是 “12S 机型”，更新有限，这进一步印证了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:</p><p><blockquote>除了即将推出的 2021 年 iPhone 机型平淡无奇之外，费拉古先生的看跌论点还可以通过他下面的引言得到进一步说明：</blockquote></p><p> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” <b>Plugging some numbers</b></p><p><blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何发展，因为当前的超级周期推动了需求[.]，随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出也会减少”。<b>插入一些数字</b></blockquote></p><p> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.</p><p><blockquote>新街提供了一些数据来支持 30% 的下行风险。据分析师称，2022 年 iPhone 出货量将达到 1.9 亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote></p><p> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果平均售价 (ASP) 像 2021 财年前两个季度那样保持高位，那么明年 iPhone 的收入将达到 1500 亿美元左右。在这些水平上，通过 COVID-19 危机和大流行复苏，iPhone 销量每年将温和增长 5%，而我估计市场普遍认为增长率接近 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到 iPhone 与苹果的财务业绩仍然息息相关（占 2020 财年公司总销售额的 50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以每股收益落后于共识的形式出现，需要两者结合起来才能支撑新街 90 美元的股价目标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s opinion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的观点</b></blockquote></p><p> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.</p><p><blockquote>有一点是明确的：股票价格可以剧烈波动并大幅调整。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前已多次从峰值下跌 40% 或更多（目前为 12%，加上 New Street 预计的近 30% 跌幅）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\"><span>Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 2：AAPL 自 IPO 以来的最大回撤幅度。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.</p><p><blockquote>但在我看来，苹果公司要想回到 90 美元，肯定会出很大的问题——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销售额增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而不是暂时的需求增长。</blockquote></p><p> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 的疲软可能也需要在其他领域带来微弱的结果。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定于产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>事实上，大流行后的“恢复正常”将导致可自由支配支出有意义地远离技术设备和服务--我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将忍受双底衰退，财政和货币刺激措施也无法补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>最终，AAPL 90 美元是可能的——在我看来，可能性不大。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价下跌30%？在熊的头脑里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价下跌30%？在熊的头脑里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-01 19:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?</p><p><blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会从当前水平下跌约 30% 吗？</blockquote></p><p> Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.</p><p><blockquote>又一只熊从洞穴里出现了。New Street 的 Pierre Ferragu 认为，苹果的股票现在是卖出，从他之前的中性立场下调，股价可能会从目前的水平下跌近 30%，仅为 90 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心世界，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\"><span>Figure 1: Wall Street bear.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：华尔街熊。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>“12S cycle” coming up?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“12S周期”即将到来？</b></blockquote></p><p> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.</p><p><blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果熊。高盛著名的怀疑论者罗德·霍尔在这家库比蒂诺公司公布了创纪录的第二财季后终于认输了。Wolfe Research 的 Jeff Kvaal 维持卖出评级，但目标价高达 125 美元，表明下行风险极小。</blockquote></p><p> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果 iPhone 升级浪潮中最精彩的部分，即所谓的 5G 超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜里。这位分析师认为，这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机很可能是 “12S 机型”，更新有限，这进一步印证了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:</p><p><blockquote>除了即将推出的 2021 年 iPhone 机型平淡无奇之外，费拉古先生的看跌论点还可以通过他下面的引言得到进一步说明：</blockquote></p><p> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” <b>Plugging some numbers</b></p><p><blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何发展，因为当前的超级周期推动了需求[.]，随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出也会减少”。<b>插入一些数字</b></blockquote></p><p> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.</p><p><blockquote>新街提供了一些数据来支持 30% 的下行风险。据分析师称，2022 年 iPhone 出货量将达到 1.9 亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote></p><p> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果平均售价 (ASP) 像 2021 财年前两个季度那样保持高位，那么明年 iPhone 的收入将达到 1500 亿美元左右。在这些水平上，通过 COVID-19 危机和大流行复苏，iPhone 销量每年将温和增长 5%，而我估计市场普遍认为增长率接近 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到 iPhone 与苹果的财务业绩仍然息息相关（占 2020 财年公司总销售额的 50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以每股收益落后于共识的形式出现，需要两者结合起来才能支撑新街 90 美元的股价目标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s opinion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的观点</b></blockquote></p><p> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.</p><p><blockquote>有一点是明确的：股票价格可以剧烈波动并大幅调整。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前已多次从峰值下跌 40% 或更多（目前为 12%，加上 New Street 预计的近 30% 跌幅）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\"><span>Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 2：AAPL 自 IPO 以来的最大回撤幅度。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.</p><p><blockquote>但在我看来，苹果公司要想回到 90 美元，肯定会出很大的问题——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销售额增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而不是暂时的需求增长。</blockquote></p><p> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 的疲软可能也需要在其他领域带来微弱的结果。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定于产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>事实上，大流行后的“恢复正常”将导致可自由支配支出有意义地远离技术设备和服务--我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将忍受双底衰退，财政和货币刺激措施也无法补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>最终，AAPL 90 美元是可能的——在我看来，可能性不大。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1054,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/113354338"}
精彩评论