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2021-06-07

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The Fed’s Inflation View Is All About That Base<blockquote>美联储的通胀观点完全基于这一基础</blockquote>

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Such year-over-year comparisons provide a sense of how the economy is changing over time. Corporate profits are often deciphered based on year-ago comparisons, too.<blockquote>这与现在的经济与一年前相比的情况有关。这种同比比较可以让人们了解经济如何随着时间的推移而变化。企业利润也经常根据去年同期的比较来解读。</blockquote>The problem is when something screwy happens a year earlier. The base from which a year-over-year comparison is calculated becomes distorted. If a company takes a hit in one year and then gets back to normal the next, it can look like its profits are soaring when in fact they are just getting back on track.<blockquote>问题是当一年前发生奇怪的事情时。计算同比比较的基础变得扭曲。如果一家公司在一年受到打击，然后在下一年恢复正常，它的利润可能看起来在飙升，而实际上它们刚刚回到正轨。</blockquote>Case in point: Earnings per share for companies that make up the S&amp;P 500 stock indexwere up 225% in the first quarterthis year from a year earlier, according to S&amp;P Global, in part because they took such a big hit during the January through March period of 2020.<blockquote>例证：根据标准普尔全球的数据，今年第一季度标普500股指成分股公司的每股收益同比增长225%，部分原因是它们在1月至3月期间遭受了如此大的打击。2020年。</blockquote>The Fed is now struggling with this challenge as it relates to inflation. The consumer-price index was up 4.2% in April from a year earlier, about double the central bank’s inflation target of 2%. However, a year ago Covid-19 was causing havoc for the economy in addition to corporate profits. Prices for services like hotels, air flights and car rentals collapsed. The 4% comparison could provide an exaggerated snapshot of price pressures because it is from a deflated base in April 2020.<blockquote>美联储目前正在努力应对这一与通胀相关的挑战。4月份消费者价格指数同比上涨4.2%，约为央行2%通胀目标的两倍。然而，一年前，除了企业利润之外，新冠肺炎还对经济造成了严重破坏。酒店、航班和汽车租赁等服务的价格暴跌。4%的比较可能会夸大价格压力，因为它来自2020年4月通缩的基数。</blockquote>The Labor Department reports consumer price numbers for the month of May later this week and the same issue could arise. Prices for gasoline, apparel, airfares, car insurance and other goods and services tumbled in May 2020 as the health crisis raged, isolating consumers in their homes. The deflated base last year will exaggerate the bounceback this year. Economists at BofA Securities and Northern Trust estimate the one-year increase was 4.7% in May.<blockquote>劳工部将于本周晚些时候报告5月份的消费者价格数据，同样的问题可能会出现。2020年5月，随着健康危机的肆虐，汽油、服装、机票、汽车保险和其他商品和服务的价格暴跌，消费者被隔离在家中。去年萎缩的基数将夸大今年的反弹。美国银行证券和北方信托的经济学家估计，5月份的一年增幅为4.7%。</blockquote>“The challenge is to separate the short-term factors from longer-term changes in the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at BofA Securities.<blockquote>美银证券美国经济主管米歇尔·迈耶表示：“挑战在于将短期因素与经济的长期变化分开。”</blockquote>Here is one simple way to get around the base-effect problem: Look at how the economy compares today with two years ago rather than one. This subdues the effects of the Covid-19 shock and showshow close activity is to normal.<blockquote>这里有一个解决基数效应问题的简单方法：看看今天的经济与两年前相比如何，而不是一年前。这抑制了新冠肺炎冲击的影响，显示收盘活动正常。</blockquote>On average, the consumer-price index rose 3.5% every two years during the decade before the Covid-19 crisis. That was within a range between 5.8% in 2012 and 0.8% in 2016.<blockquote>在Covid-19危机之前的十年里，消费者价格指数平均每两年上涨3.5%。这一比例在2012年的5.8%至2016年的0.8%之间。</blockquote>In April this year, the index was up 4.5% from two years earlier.<blockquote>今年4月，该指数较两年前上涨4.5%。</blockquote>The message from this perspective is that inflation is trending a bit higher than usual but not exceptionally so as of April.<blockquote>从这个角度来看，通胀趋势略高于平常，但截至4月份并不罕见。</blockquote>Carl Tannenbuam, chief economist at Northern Trust bank, estimates these effects will fade later in 2021 as comparisons with 2020 become less dramatic. Then, he said, base effects will reassert themselves in 2022 because the early months of 2021 have been distorted by reopening.<blockquote>北方信托银行首席经济学家Carl Tannenbuam估计，随着与2020年的比较变得不那么引人注目，这些影响将在2021年晚些时候消退。然后，他说，基数效应将在2022年再次显现，因为2021年头几个月因重新开放而被扭曲。</blockquote>“We’ll be hearing about this topic for a long time,” he said.<blockquote>“我们将在很长一段时间内听到这个话题，”他说。</blockquote>A great deal hangs on how the Fed reads inflation. Through purchases of government and mortgage debt, the central bank has pumped nearly $4 trillion into the financial system since the Covid crisis erupted in the U.S. It alsolowered short-term interest rates to near zero. The goal is to make credit cheap to support economic activity.<blockquote>很大程度上取决于美联储如何解读通胀。自美国爆发新冠危机以来，通过购买政府和抵押贷款债务，央行已向金融体系注入了近4万亿美元。它还将短期利率降至接近于零。目标是让信贷变得廉价以支持经济活动。</blockquote>The Fed needs to decide when to pull this growing flood of money out from the financial system and economy. If it decides inflation is a real threat, it could start the process soon. If it moves too soon, it could undermine the recovery.<blockquote>美联储需要决定何时将越来越多的资金从金融体系和经济中撤出。如果它认为通货膨胀是一个真正的威胁，它可能很快就会开始这一进程。如果行动太快，可能会破坏复苏。</blockquote>“It isn’t easy to get a firm fix on long-run inflation at the moment. I subscribe to the thesis that a great deal of what we are seeing now is not going to change the trajectory of long-term inflation,” said Mr. Tannenbaum. “But the potential for policy error is high.”<blockquote>“目前要坚定地解决长期通胀问题并不容易。我同意这样的论点，即我们现在看到的很多情况不会改变长期通胀的轨迹，”坦南鲍姆先生说。“但出现政策错误的可能性很高。”</blockquote>The two-year comparison sheds some light on how the Fed is thinking about the problem. Though inflation is within normal bounds for the past decade when looked at over two decades, the job market is not.<blockquote>两年的比较揭示了美联储是如何思考这个问题的。尽管从过去二十年来看，过去十年的通胀处于正常范围内，但就业市场却并非如此。</blockquote>On average, payroll employment was growing 3.1% every two years during the decade before Covid-19. In May, payrolls were down 3.8% from two years earlier, because of the job losses accumulated early in the pandemic.<blockquote>在新冠肺炎之前的十年里，平均每两年就业人数增长3.1%。由于疫情初期积累的失业人数，5月份就业人数较两年前下降3.8%。</blockquote>That helps explain why the Fed has been preoccupied with getting the job market back to normal. Though inflation hasn’t broken out of the two-year range of the pre-pandemic decade, the job recovery is far from complete.<blockquote>这有助于解释为什么美联储一直专注于让就业市场恢复正常。尽管通胀尚未突破大流行前十年的两年范围，但就业复苏还远未完成。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed’s Inflation View Is All About That Base<blockquote>美联储的通胀观点完全基于这一基础</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed’s Inflation View Is All About That Base<blockquote>美联储的通胀观点完全基于这一基础</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-07 15:52\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFederal Reserve officials are talking a lot these days about base effects.<blockquote>美联储官员最近经常谈论基数效应。</blockquote>That relates to how the economy looks now compared with a year ago. Such year-over-year comparisons provide a sense of how the economy is changing over time. Corporate profits are often deciphered based on year-ago comparisons, too.<blockquote>这与现在的经济与一年前相比的情况有关。这种同比比较可以让人们了解经济如何随着时间的推移而变化。企业利润也经常根据去年同期的比较来解读。</blockquote>The problem is when something screwy happens a year earlier. The base from which a year-over-year comparison is calculated becomes distorted. If a company takes a hit in one year and then gets back to normal the next, it can look like its profits are soaring when in fact they are just getting back on track.<blockquote>问题是当一年前发生奇怪的事情时。计算同比比较的基础变得扭曲。如果一家公司在一年受到打击，然后在下一年恢复正常，它的利润可能看起来在飙升，而实际上它们刚刚回到正轨。</blockquote>Case in point: Earnings per share for companies that make up the S&amp;P 500 stock indexwere up 225% in the first quarterthis year from a year earlier, according to S&amp;P Global, in part because they took such a big hit during the January through March period of 2020.<blockquote>例证：根据标准普尔全球的数据，今年第一季度标普500股指成分股公司的每股收益同比增长225%，部分原因是它们在1月至3月期间遭受了如此大的打击。2020年。</blockquote>The Fed is now struggling with this challenge as it relates to inflation. The consumer-price index was up 4.2% in April from a year earlier, about double the central bank’s inflation target of 2%. However, a year ago Covid-19 was causing havoc for the economy in addition to corporate profits. Prices for services like hotels, air flights and car rentals collapsed. The 4% comparison could provide an exaggerated snapshot of price pressures because it is from a deflated base in April 2020.<blockquote>美联储目前正在努力应对这一与通胀相关的挑战。4月份消费者价格指数同比上涨4.2%，约为央行2%通胀目标的两倍。然而，一年前，除了企业利润之外，新冠肺炎还对经济造成了严重破坏。酒店、航班和汽车租赁等服务的价格暴跌。4%的比较可能会夸大价格压力，因为它来自2020年4月通缩的基数。</blockquote>The Labor Department reports consumer price numbers for the month of May later this week and the same issue could arise. Prices for gasoline, apparel, airfares, car insurance and other goods and services tumbled in May 2020 as the health crisis raged, isolating consumers in their homes. The deflated base last year will exaggerate the bounceback this year. Economists at BofA Securities and Northern Trust estimate the one-year increase was 4.7% in May.<blockquote>劳工部将于本周晚些时候报告5月份的消费者价格数据，同样的问题可能会出现。2020年5月，随着健康危机的肆虐，汽油、服装、机票、汽车保险和其他商品和服务的价格暴跌，消费者被隔离在家中。去年萎缩的基数将夸大今年的反弹。美国银行证券和北方信托的经济学家估计，5月份的一年增幅为4.7%。</blockquote>“The challenge is to separate the short-term factors from longer-term changes in the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at BofA Securities.<blockquote>美银证券美国经济主管米歇尔·迈耶表示：“挑战在于将短期因素与经济的长期变化分开。”</blockquote>Here is one simple way to get around the base-effect problem: Look at how the economy compares today with two years ago rather than one. This subdues the effects of the Covid-19 shock and showshow close activity is to normal.<blockquote>这里有一个解决基数效应问题的简单方法：看看今天的经济与两年前相比如何，而不是一年前。这抑制了新冠肺炎冲击的影响，显示收盘活动正常。</blockquote>On average, the consumer-price index rose 3.5% every two years during the decade before the Covid-19 crisis. That was within a range between 5.8% in 2012 and 0.8% in 2016.<blockquote>在Covid-19危机之前的十年里，消费者价格指数平均每两年上涨3.5%。这一比例在2012年的5.8%至2016年的0.8%之间。</blockquote>In April this year, the index was up 4.5% from two years earlier.<blockquote>今年4月，该指数较两年前上涨4.5%。</blockquote>The message from this perspective is that inflation is trending a bit higher than usual but not exceptionally so as of April.<blockquote>从这个角度来看，通胀趋势略高于平常，但截至4月份并不罕见。</blockquote>Carl Tannenbuam, chief economist at Northern Trust bank, estimates these effects will fade later in 2021 as comparisons with 2020 become less dramatic. Then, he said, base effects will reassert themselves in 2022 because the early months of 2021 have been distorted by reopening.<blockquote>北方信托银行首席经济学家Carl Tannenbuam估计，随着与2020年的比较变得不那么引人注目，这些影响将在2021年晚些时候消退。然后，他说，基数效应将在2022年再次显现，因为2021年头几个月因重新开放而被扭曲。</blockquote>“We’ll be hearing about this topic for a long time,” he said.<blockquote>“我们将在很长一段时间内听到这个话题，”他说。</blockquote>A great deal hangs on how the Fed reads inflation. Through purchases of government and mortgage debt, the central bank has pumped nearly $4 trillion into the financial system since the Covid crisis erupted in the U.S. It alsolowered short-term interest rates to near zero. The goal is to make credit cheap to support economic activity.<blockquote>很大程度上取决于美联储如何解读通胀。自美国爆发新冠危机以来，通过购买政府和抵押贷款债务，央行已向金融体系注入了近4万亿美元。它还将短期利率降至接近于零。目标是让信贷变得廉价以支持经济活动。</blockquote>The Fed needs to decide when to pull this growing flood of money out from the financial system and economy. If it decides inflation is a real threat, it could start the process soon. If it moves too soon, it could undermine the recovery.<blockquote>美联储需要决定何时将越来越多的资金从金融体系和经济中撤出。如果它认为通货膨胀是一个真正的威胁，它可能很快就会开始这一进程。如果行动太快，可能会破坏复苏。</blockquote>“It isn’t easy to get a firm fix on long-run inflation at the moment. I subscribe to the thesis that a great deal of what we are seeing now is not going to change the trajectory of long-term inflation,” said Mr. Tannenbaum. “But the potential for policy error is high.”<blockquote>“目前要坚定地解决长期通胀问题并不容易。我同意这样的论点，即我们现在看到的很多情况不会改变长期通胀的轨迹，”坦南鲍姆先生说。“但出现政策错误的可能性很高。”</blockquote>The two-year comparison sheds some light on how the Fed is thinking about the problem. Though inflation is within normal bounds for the past decade when looked at over two decades, the job market is not.<blockquote>两年的比较揭示了美联储是如何思考这个问题的。尽管从过去二十年来看，过去十年的通胀处于正常范围内，但就业市场却并非如此。</blockquote>On average, payroll employment was growing 3.1% every two years during the decade before Covid-19. In May, payrolls were down 3.8% from two years earlier, because of the job losses accumulated early in the pandemic.<blockquote>在新冠肺炎之前的十年里，平均每两年就业人数增长3.1%。由于疫情初期积累的失业人数，5月份就业人数较两年前下降3.8%。</blockquote>That helps explain why the Fed has been preoccupied with getting the job market back to normal. Though inflation hasn’t broken out of the two-year range of the pre-pandemic decade, the job recovery is far from complete.<blockquote>这有助于解释为什么美联储一直专注于让就业市场恢复正常。尽管通胀尚未突破大流行前十年的两年范围，但就业复苏还远未完成。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-feds-inflation-view-is-all-about-that-base-11622988002?mod=hp_lista_pos1\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-feds-inflation-view-is-all-about-that-base-11622988002?mod=hp_lista_pos1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147184118","content_text":"Federal Reserve officials are talking a lot these days about base effects.That relates to how the economy looks now compared with a year ago. Such year-over-year comparisons provide a sense of how the economy is changing over time. Corporate profits are often deciphered based on year-ago comparisons, too.The problem is when something screwy happens a year earlier. The base from which a year-over-year comparison is calculated becomes distorted. If a company takes a hit in one year and then gets back to normal the next, it can look like its profits are soaring when in fact they are just getting back on track.Case in point: Earnings per share for companies that make up the S&P 500 stock indexwere up 225% in the first quarterthis year from a year earlier, according to S&P Global, in part because they took such a big hit during the January through March period of 2020.The Fed is now struggling with this challenge as it relates to inflation. The consumer-price index was up 4.2% in April from a year earlier, about double the central bank’s inflation target of 2%. However, a year ago Covid-19 was causing havoc for the economy in addition to corporate profits. Prices for services like hotels, air flights and car rentals collapsed. The 4% comparison could provide an exaggerated snapshot of price pressures because it is from a deflated base in April 2020.The Labor Department reports consumer price numbers for the month of May later this week and the same issue could arise. Prices for gasoline, apparel, airfares, car insurance and other goods and services tumbled in May 2020 as the health crisis raged, isolating consumers in their homes. The deflated base last year will exaggerate the bounceback this year. Economists at BofA Securities and Northern Trust estimate the one-year increase was 4.7% in May.“The challenge is to separate the short-term factors from longer-term changes in the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at BofA Securities.Here is one simple way to get around the base-effect problem: Look at how the economy compares today with two years ago rather than one. This subdues the effects of the Covid-19 shock and showshow close activity is to normal.On average, the consumer-price index rose 3.5% every two years during the decade before the Covid-19 crisis. That was within a range between 5.8% in 2012 and 0.8% in 2016.In April this year, the index was up 4.5% from two years earlier.The message from this perspective is that inflation is trending a bit higher than usual but not exceptionally so as of April.Carl Tannenbuam, chief economist at Northern Trust bank, estimates these effects will fade later in 2021 as comparisons with 2020 become less dramatic. Then, he said, base effects will reassert themselves in 2022 because the early months of 2021 have been distorted by reopening.“We’ll be hearing about this topic for a long time,” he said.A great deal hangs on how the Fed reads inflation. Through purchases of government and mortgage debt, the central bank has pumped nearly $4 trillion into the financial system since the Covid crisis erupted in the U.S. It alsolowered short-term interest rates to near zero. The goal is to make credit cheap to support economic activity.The Fed needs to decide when to pull this growing flood of money out from the financial system and economy. If it decides inflation is a real threat, it could start the process soon. If it moves too soon, it could undermine the recovery.“It isn’t easy to get a firm fix on long-run inflation at the moment. I subscribe to the thesis that a great deal of what we are seeing now is not going to change the trajectory of long-term inflation,” said Mr. Tannenbaum. “But the potential for policy error is high.”The two-year comparison sheds some light on how the Fed is thinking about the problem. Though inflation is within normal bounds for the past decade when looked at over two decades, the job market is not.On average, payroll employment was growing 3.1% every two years during the decade before Covid-19. In May, payrolls were down 3.8% from two years earlier, because of the job losses accumulated early in the pandemic.That helps explain why the Fed has been preoccupied with getting the job market back to normal. Though inflation hasn’t broken out of the two-year range of the pre-pandemic decade, the job recovery is far from complete.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/114328236"}