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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":114541963,"tweetId":"114541963","gmtCreate":1623082066352,"gmtModify":1631890380961,"author":{"id":3569978586500313,"idStr":"3569978586500313","authorId":3569978586500313,"authorIdStr":"3569978586500313","name":"CSYNCTP06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd2aa5c3a3fb737be0567ef3f336a98","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Hi</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Hi</body></html>","text":"Hi","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114541963","repostId":1122176272,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122176272","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623080698,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122176272?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-07 23:44","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Options Traders Bet on Return of $100 Oil<blockquote>期权交易员押注油价重返100美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122176272","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Investors have scooped up call options tied to crude prices hitting milestone for first time since g","content":"Investors have scooped up call options tied to crude prices hitting milestone for first time since gush of U.S. oil in 2014.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a88b89abd0e8ae3c240100316ddc1eb0\" tg-width=\"893\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Traders have alighted on what some believe to be a one-way bet in the world’s most important commodity market: oil prices going to $100 a barrel.<blockquote>投资者纷纷买入与原油价格挂钩的看涨期权期权，这是自2014年美国石油大量涌入以来首次达到里程碑。一些人认为，交易员在全球最重要的大宗商品市场上押注了一场单向押注：油价将升至每桶100美元。</blockquote>They have scooped up call options tied to Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude-oil prices reaching $100 by the end of next year. Oil prices haven’t topped that milestone since 2014, when a gush of U.S. crude depressed energy markets.<blockquote>他们已经抢购了与布伦特和西德克萨斯中质原油价格挂钩的看涨期权期权，到明年年底将达到100美元。自2014年美国原油大量涌入压低能源市场以来，油价从未突破这一里程碑。</blockquote>Owners of $100 options—now the most widely owned WTI call contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange—are making a leveraged bet that oil prices will hurtle higher after already surging more than 40% this year. The roaring rally, goosed by thawing coronavirus restrictions, has lifted WTI prices totheir highest level since 2018at almost $70 a barrel and average U.S. gasoline prices above $3 a gallon, according to GasBuddy.<blockquote>100美元期权（目前是纽约商品交易所持有最广泛的WTI看涨期权合约）的所有者正在进行杠杆押注，认为油价在今年飙升超过40%后将飙升。GasBuddy表示，在冠状病毒限制解冻的推动下，WTI价格上涨至2018年以来的最高水平，接近每桶70美元，美国平均汽油价格超过每加仑3美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e0d9f96cb3f473e9a3d92f2f9c3247\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The popularity of $100 options is another example of traders converging on seemingly outlandish wagers they consider to be almost guaranteed ways of making money. Analysts say oil is unlikely to zip to $100 any time soon because the world economy is still recovering from the shock of Covid-19 and major producers are lifting output in response to resurgent demand.<blockquote>100美元期权的流行是交易者聚集在看似古怪的赌注上的另一个例子，他们认为这些赌注几乎是赚钱的保证。分析师表示，油价不太可能很快升至100美元，因为世界经济仍在从Covid-19的冲击中复苏，主要产油国正在提高产量以应对需求复苏。</blockquote>“Everyone’s been looking at it,” Adam Webb, chief investment officer of trading firm Blue Creek Capital Management LLC, said of $100 call options for oil delivered in December 2022. “It’s a no-brainer.”<blockquote>交易公司Blue Creek Capital Management LLC首席投资官Adam Webb在谈到2022年12月交割的100美元看涨期权石油期权时表示：“每个人都在关注它。”“这是显而易见的。”</blockquote>Mr. Webb thinks the rebound in the U.S. economy will help to catapult WTI prices toward $100 a barrel. The fund has sold put options to fund the purchase of $100 calls, which he judges to be unsustainably cheap.<blockquote>韦伯先生认为，美国经济的反弹将有助于推动WTI价格升至每桶100美元。该基金已出售看跌期权，为购买100美元的评级提供资金，他认为这是不可持续的廉价。</blockquote>The flurry of activity in $100-oil options holds parallels with speculative wagers that have proliferated in other corners of financial markets. In January, traders piled into options on unprofitable companies such as GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. They figured doing so would boost share prices, inflict losses on bearish investors and prompt them to buy back shares they had sold short. The self-fueling dynamic drove prices even higher in a trading frenzy that reignited in early June.<blockquote>100美元石油期权的一系列活动与金融市场其他角落激增的投机性押注类似。一月份，交易员纷纷买入游戏驿站公司和AMC院线控股公司等未盈利公司的期权。他们认为这样做会推高股价，给看跌的投资者造成损失，并促使他们回购卖空的股票。在六月初重新点燃的交易狂潮中，这种自我激励的动力推动价格进一步走高。</blockquote>Betting on an imminent return to $100 for oil is striking just over a year after the pandemic slammed energy demand and U.S. crude futures tumbled below zero. Products derived from crude fuel cars, power electricity generators and are the building blocks of plastics, making oil a vital component of the world economy. Spikes in crude markets are to some extent self-correcting because higher prices curtail demand and encourage greater production.<blockquote>在疫情重创能源需求、美国原油期货跌至零以下仅一年多后，押注油价即将重返100美元令人震惊。原油产品为汽车、发电机提供动力，也是塑料的组成部分，使石油成为世界经济的重要组成部分。原油市场的飙升在某种程度上是自我修正的，因为价格上涨抑制了需求并鼓励了更大的产量。</blockquote>Barring an influx of investors into commodity markets or a slump in the dollar, oil demand would need to rise well above pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter for prices to hit $100 this year, according to JPMorgan Chase analyst Natasha Kaneva. She says that is all but impossible. Other grounds for caution include an increase in Iranian crude exports in the event of a nuclear deal with the U.S.<blockquote>摩根大通分析师Natasha Kaneva表示，除非投资者涌入大宗商品市场或美元暴跌，否则第四季度石油需求需要远高于大流行前的水平，今年油价才能达到100美元。她说这几乎是不可能的。其他谨慎的理由包括，如果与美国达成核协议，伊朗原油出口将增加。</blockquote>That hasn’t deterred traders from building a big position in $100 call options. The contracts give their owner the right to buy crude futures at $100 a barrel. They pay out if prices rise above that strike price before expiration.<blockquote>这并没有阻止交易员在100美元的看涨期权期权中建立大量头寸。这些合约赋予其所有者以每桶100美元的价格购买原油期货的权利。如果价格在到期前升至执行价格以上，他们就会支付。</blockquote>December 2022 contracts with a strike of $100 are by far the most widely owned WTI call option on the New York Mercantile Exchange. There are more than 60,000 outstanding, according to options-data provider QuikStrike, covering more than 60 million barrels of crude.<blockquote>执行价为100美元的2022年12月合约是迄今为止纽约商品交易所持有最广泛的WTI看涨期权期权。根据期权数据提供商QuikStrike的数据，有超过60,000份未偿原油，涵盖超过6000万桶原油。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e62a68b83da9ac904cabfa18eb21abb4\" tg-width=\"724\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Some traders are betting $100 oil could happen this year: $100 December 2021 calls are tied to 15.9 million barrels of WTI. In London’s Brent market, $100 contracts for December 2021 covered more than 32 million barrels last week, up from none at the end of last year, according to Intercontinental Exchange.<blockquote>一些交易员押注今年油价可能会达到100美元：2021年12月100美元的评级原油与1590万桶WTI挂钩。根据洲际交易所的数据，在伦敦布伦特市场，2021年12月的100美元合约上周覆盖了超过3200万桶，高于去年年底的零。</blockquote>Even some of those buying the options don’t expect oil prices to hit $100 but think they will profit regardless. Traders say the contracts, dubbed lottery tickets, will likely appreciate if oil prices keep rising or if participants expect crude markets to grow more volatile.<blockquote>甚至一些购买期权的人也不认为油价会达到100美元，但认为无论如何他们都会获利。交易员表示，如果油价持续上涨，或者参与者预计原油市场将变得更加波动，这些被称为彩票的合约可能会升值。</blockquote>Buyers are betting on higher volatility more than they are placing a wager on higher oil prices, said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities USA. Volatility and options are intrinsically linked, so all else being equal, that would boost the price of the contracts.<blockquote>瑞穗证券美国公司能源期货主管Robert Yawger表示，买家押注更高的波动性，而不是押注更高的油价。波动性和期权有着内在的联系，因此在其他条件相同的情况下，这将提高合约的价格。</blockquote>Mr. Yawger doesn’t think oil will get close to $100 a barrel, noting that the futures market pegs WTI prices at about $61 a barrel for December 2022. He said owners of $100 calls will benefit anyway because expected volatility is low and likely to rise. Sellers are “basically giving [volatility] away” at current prices, he said.<blockquote>Yawger先生认为油价不会接近每桶100美元，并指出期货市场将2022年12月WTI价格定为每桶61美元左右。他表示，100美元评级的所有者无论如何都会受益，因为预期波动性较低，而且可能会上升。他表示，按照当前价格，卖家“基本上放弃了[波动性]”。</blockquote>A trader who bought $100 calls for December 2022 at the end of last year would already be sitting on paper gains. The contracts traded at 66 U.S. cents Friday, QuikStrike data show, up from 27 cents on Dec. 31.<blockquote>去年年底买入2022年12月100美元评级的交易员已经坐拥账面收益。QuikStrike数据显示，周五这些合约的交易价格为66美分，高于12月31日的27美分。</blockquote>Traders say they are still relatively cheap because demand from producers seeking protection against falling prices means oil puts are typically more expensive than calls. The $100 call trade isn’t risk free, however.<blockquote>交易商表示，它们仍然相对便宜，因为寻求保护免受价格下跌影响的生产商的需求意味着石油看跌期权通常比评级更贵。然而，100美元的看涨期权交易并非没有风险。</blockquote>Jean-Louis Le Mee, chief executive of Westbeck Capital Management LLP, forecasts crude prices will surge to record highs in 2023 but is surprised at how many $100 Brent call options for 2021 are outstanding. The hedge fund steers clear of such bullish contracts, preferring to buy options that Mr. Le Mee thinks will settle in the money. Even if volatility rises, $100 contracts will lose value if it happens too close to expiration, he said.<blockquote>Westbeck Capital Management LLP首席执行官Jean-Louis Le Mee预测原油价格将在2023年飙升至历史新高，但对2021年有多少100美元看涨期权原油期权未平仓感到惊讶。该对冲基金避开了此类看涨合约，更愿意购买Le Mee先生认为将以现金结算的期权。他表示，即使波动性上升，如果距离到期太近，100美元的合约也会贬值。</blockquote>Instead, Westbeck has booked profits by selling $65 Brent-crude calls for December 2022 that it bought last year and used the proceeds to buy $80 contracts for December 2023.<blockquote>相反，Westbeck通过出售去年购买的2022年12月65美元的评级原油来记录利润，并用所得收益购买2023年12月80美元的合约。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Options Traders Bet on Return of $100 Oil<blockquote>期权交易员押注油价重返100美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOptions Traders Bet on Return of $100 Oil<blockquote>期权交易员押注油价重返100美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nThe Wall Street Journal2021-06-07 23:44\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInvestors have scooped up call options tied to crude prices hitting milestone for first time since gush of U.S. oil in 2014.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a88b89abd0e8ae3c240100316ddc1eb0\" tg-width=\"893\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Traders have alighted on what some believe to be a one-way bet in the world’s most important commodity market: oil prices going to $100 a barrel.<blockquote>投资者纷纷买入与原油价格挂钩的看涨期权期权，这是自2014年美国石油大量涌入以来首次达到里程碑。一些人认为，交易员在全球最重要的大宗商品市场上押注了一场单向押注：油价将升至每桶100美元。</blockquote>They have scooped up call options tied to Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude-oil prices reaching $100 by the end of next year. Oil prices haven’t topped that milestone since 2014, when a gush of U.S. crude depressed energy markets.<blockquote>他们已经抢购了与布伦特和西德克萨斯中质原油价格挂钩的看涨期权期权，到明年年底将达到100美元。自2014年美国原油大量涌入压低能源市场以来，油价从未突破这一里程碑。</blockquote>Owners of $100 options—now the most widely owned WTI call contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange—are making a leveraged bet that oil prices will hurtle higher after already surging more than 40% this year. The roaring rally, goosed by thawing coronavirus restrictions, has lifted WTI prices totheir highest level since 2018at almost $70 a barrel and average U.S. gasoline prices above $3 a gallon, according to GasBuddy.<blockquote>100美元期权（目前是纽约商品交易所持有最广泛的WTI看涨期权合约）的所有者正在进行杠杆押注，认为油价在今年飙升超过40%后将飙升。GasBuddy表示，在冠状病毒限制解冻的推动下，WTI价格上涨至2018年以来的最高水平，接近每桶70美元，美国平均汽油价格超过每加仑3美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e0d9f96cb3f473e9a3d92f2f9c3247\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The popularity of $100 options is another example of traders converging on seemingly outlandish wagers they consider to be almost guaranteed ways of making money. Analysts say oil is unlikely to zip to $100 any time soon because the world economy is still recovering from the shock of Covid-19 and major producers are lifting output in response to resurgent demand.<blockquote>100美元期权的流行是交易者聚集在看似古怪的赌注上的另一个例子，他们认为这些赌注几乎是赚钱的保证。分析师表示，油价不太可能很快升至100美元，因为世界经济仍在从Covid-19的冲击中复苏，主要产油国正在提高产量以应对需求复苏。</blockquote>“Everyone’s been looking at it,” Adam Webb, chief investment officer of trading firm Blue Creek Capital Management LLC, said of $100 call options for oil delivered in December 2022. “It’s a no-brainer.”<blockquote>交易公司Blue Creek Capital Management LLC首席投资官Adam Webb在谈到2022年12月交割的100美元看涨期权石油期权时表示：“每个人都在关注它。”“这是显而易见的。”</blockquote>Mr. Webb thinks the rebound in the U.S. economy will help to catapult WTI prices toward $100 a barrel. The fund has sold put options to fund the purchase of $100 calls, which he judges to be unsustainably cheap.<blockquote>韦伯先生认为，美国经济的反弹将有助于推动WTI价格升至每桶100美元。该基金已出售看跌期权，为购买100美元的评级提供资金，他认为这是不可持续的廉价。</blockquote>The flurry of activity in $100-oil options holds parallels with speculative wagers that have proliferated in other corners of financial markets. In January, traders piled into options on unprofitable companies such as GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. They figured doing so would boost share prices, inflict losses on bearish investors and prompt them to buy back shares they had sold short. The self-fueling dynamic drove prices even higher in a trading frenzy that reignited in early June.<blockquote>100美元石油期权的一系列活动与金融市场其他角落激增的投机性押注类似。一月份，交易员纷纷买入游戏驿站公司和AMC院线控股公司等未盈利公司的期权。他们认为这样做会推高股价，给看跌的投资者造成损失，并促使他们回购卖空的股票。在六月初重新点燃的交易狂潮中，这种自我激励的动力推动价格进一步走高。</blockquote>Betting on an imminent return to $100 for oil is striking just over a year after the pandemic slammed energy demand and U.S. crude futures tumbled below zero. Products derived from crude fuel cars, power electricity generators and are the building blocks of plastics, making oil a vital component of the world economy. Spikes in crude markets are to some extent self-correcting because higher prices curtail demand and encourage greater production.<blockquote>在疫情重创能源需求、美国原油期货跌至零以下仅一年多后，押注油价即将重返100美元令人震惊。原油产品为汽车、发电机提供动力，也是塑料的组成部分，使石油成为世界经济的重要组成部分。原油市场的飙升在某种程度上是自我修正的，因为价格上涨抑制了需求并鼓励了更大的产量。</blockquote>Barring an influx of investors into commodity markets or a slump in the dollar, oil demand would need to rise well above pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter for prices to hit $100 this year, according to JPMorgan Chase analyst Natasha Kaneva. She says that is all but impossible. Other grounds for caution include an increase in Iranian crude exports in the event of a nuclear deal with the U.S.<blockquote>摩根大通分析师Natasha Kaneva表示，除非投资者涌入大宗商品市场或美元暴跌，否则第四季度石油需求需要远高于大流行前的水平，今年油价才能达到100美元。她说这几乎是不可能的。其他谨慎的理由包括，如果与美国达成核协议，伊朗原油出口将增加。</blockquote>That hasn’t deterred traders from building a big position in $100 call options. The contracts give their owner the right to buy crude futures at $100 a barrel. They pay out if prices rise above that strike price before expiration.<blockquote>这并没有阻止交易员在100美元的看涨期权期权中建立大量头寸。这些合约赋予其所有者以每桶100美元的价格购买原油期货的权利。如果价格在到期前升至执行价格以上，他们就会支付。</blockquote>December 2022 contracts with a strike of $100 are by far the most widely owned WTI call option on the New York Mercantile Exchange. There are more than 60,000 outstanding, according to options-data provider QuikStrike, covering more than 60 million barrels of crude.<blockquote>执行价为100美元的2022年12月合约是迄今为止纽约商品交易所持有最广泛的WTI看涨期权期权。根据期权数据提供商QuikStrike的数据，有超过60,000份未偿原油，涵盖超过6000万桶原油。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e62a68b83da9ac904cabfa18eb21abb4\" tg-width=\"724\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Some traders are betting $100 oil could happen this year: $100 December 2021 calls are tied to 15.9 million barrels of WTI. In London’s Brent market, $100 contracts for December 2021 covered more than 32 million barrels last week, up from none at the end of last year, according to Intercontinental Exchange.<blockquote>一些交易员押注今年油价可能会达到100美元：2021年12月100美元的评级原油与1590万桶WTI挂钩。根据洲际交易所的数据，在伦敦布伦特市场，2021年12月的100美元合约上周覆盖了超过3200万桶，高于去年年底的零。</blockquote>Even some of those buying the options don’t expect oil prices to hit $100 but think they will profit regardless. Traders say the contracts, dubbed lottery tickets, will likely appreciate if oil prices keep rising or if participants expect crude markets to grow more volatile.<blockquote>甚至一些购买期权的人也不认为油价会达到100美元，但认为无论如何他们都会获利。交易员表示，如果油价持续上涨，或者参与者预计原油市场将变得更加波动，这些被称为彩票的合约可能会升值。</blockquote>Buyers are betting on higher volatility more than they are placing a wager on higher oil prices, said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities USA. Volatility and options are intrinsically linked, so all else being equal, that would boost the price of the contracts.<blockquote>瑞穗证券美国公司能源期货主管Robert Yawger表示，买家押注更高的波动性，而不是押注更高的油价。波动性和期权有着内在的联系，因此在其他条件相同的情况下，这将提高合约的价格。</blockquote>Mr. Yawger doesn’t think oil will get close to $100 a barrel, noting that the futures market pegs WTI prices at about $61 a barrel for December 2022. He said owners of $100 calls will benefit anyway because expected volatility is low and likely to rise. Sellers are “basically giving [volatility] away” at current prices, he said.<blockquote>Yawger先生认为油价不会接近每桶100美元，并指出期货市场将2022年12月WTI价格定为每桶61美元左右。他表示，100美元评级的所有者无论如何都会受益，因为预期波动性较低，而且可能会上升。他表示，按照当前价格，卖家“基本上放弃了[波动性]”。</blockquote>A trader who bought $100 calls for December 2022 at the end of last year would already be sitting on paper gains. The contracts traded at 66 U.S. cents Friday, QuikStrike data show, up from 27 cents on Dec. 31.<blockquote>去年年底买入2022年12月100美元评级的交易员已经坐拥账面收益。QuikStrike数据显示，周五这些合约的交易价格为66美分，高于12月31日的27美分。</blockquote>Traders say they are still relatively cheap because demand from producers seeking protection against falling prices means oil puts are typically more expensive than calls. The $100 call trade isn’t risk free, however.<blockquote>交易商表示，它们仍然相对便宜，因为寻求保护免受价格下跌影响的生产商的需求意味着石油看跌期权通常比评级更贵。然而，100美元的看涨期权交易并非没有风险。</blockquote>Jean-Louis Le Mee, chief executive of Westbeck Capital Management LLP, forecasts crude prices will surge to record highs in 2023 but is surprised at how many $100 Brent call options for 2021 are outstanding. The hedge fund steers clear of such bullish contracts, preferring to buy options that Mr. Le Mee thinks will settle in the money. Even if volatility rises, $100 contracts will lose value if it happens too close to expiration, he said.<blockquote>Westbeck Capital Management LLP首席执行官Jean-Louis Le Mee预测原油价格将在2023年飙升至历史新高，但对2021年有多少100美元看涨期权原油期权未平仓感到惊讶。该对冲基金避开了此类看涨合约，更愿意购买Le Mee先生认为将以现金结算的期权。他表示，即使波动性上升，如果距离到期太近，100美元的合约也会贬值。</blockquote>Instead, Westbeck has booked profits by selling $65 Brent-crude calls for December 2022 that it bought last year and used the proceeds to buy $80 contracts for December 2023.<blockquote>相反，Westbeck通过出售去年购买的2022年12月65美元的评级原油来记录利润，并用所得收益购买2023年12月80美元的合约。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/options-traders-bet-on-return-of-100-oil-11623061227?mod=markets_lead_pos1\">The Wall Street Journal</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/options-traders-bet-on-return-of-100-oil-11623061227?mod=markets_lead_pos1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122176272","content_text":"Investors have scooped up call options tied to crude prices hitting milestone for first time since gush of U.S. oil in 2014.Traders have alighted on what some believe to be a one-way bet in the world’s most important commodity market: oil prices going to $100 a barrel.They have scooped up call options tied to Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude-oil prices reaching $100 by the end of next year. Oil prices haven’t topped that milestone since 2014, when a gush of U.S. crude depressed energy markets.Owners of $100 options—now the most widely owned WTI call contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange—are making a leveraged bet that oil prices will hurtle higher after already surging more than 40% this year. The roaring rally, goosed by thawing coronavirus restrictions, has lifted WTI prices totheir highest level since 2018at almost $70 a barrel and average U.S. gasoline prices above $3 a gallon, according to GasBuddy.The popularity of $100 options is another example of traders converging on seemingly outlandish wagers they consider to be almost guaranteed ways of making money. Analysts say oil is unlikely to zip to $100 any time soon because the world economy is still recovering from the shock of Covid-19 and major producers are lifting output in response to resurgent demand.“Everyone’s been looking at it,” Adam Webb, chief investment officer of trading firm Blue Creek Capital Management LLC, said of $100 call options for oil delivered in December 2022. “It’s a no-brainer.”Mr. Webb thinks the rebound in the U.S. economy will help to catapult WTI prices toward $100 a barrel. The fund has sold put options to fund the purchase of $100 calls, which he judges to be unsustainably cheap.The flurry of activity in $100-oil options holds parallels with speculative wagers that have proliferated in other corners of financial markets. In January, traders piled into options on unprofitable companies such as GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. They figured doing so would boost share prices, inflict losses on bearish investors and prompt them to buy back shares they had sold short. The self-fueling dynamic drove prices even higher in a trading frenzy that reignited in early June.Betting on an imminent return to $100 for oil is striking just over a year after the pandemic slammed energy demand and U.S. crude futures tumbled below zero. Products derived from crude fuel cars, power electricity generators and are the building blocks of plastics, making oil a vital component of the world economy. Spikes in crude markets are to some extent self-correcting because higher prices curtail demand and encourage greater production.Barring an influx of investors into commodity markets or a slump in the dollar, oil demand would need to rise well above pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter for prices to hit $100 this year, according to JPMorgan Chase analyst Natasha Kaneva. She says that is all but impossible. Other grounds for caution include an increase in Iranian crude exports in the event of a nuclear deal with the U.S.That hasn’t deterred traders from building a big position in $100 call options. The contracts give their owner the right to buy crude futures at $100 a barrel. They pay out if prices rise above that strike price before expiration.December 2022 contracts with a strike of $100 are by far the most widely owned WTI call option on the New York Mercantile Exchange. There are more than 60,000 outstanding, according to options-data provider QuikStrike, covering more than 60 million barrels of crude.Some traders are betting $100 oil could happen this year: $100 December 2021 calls are tied to 15.9 million barrels of WTI. In London’s Brent market, $100 contracts for December 2021 covered more than 32 million barrels last week, up from none at the end of last year, according to Intercontinental Exchange.Even some of those buying the options don’t expect oil prices to hit $100 but think they will profit regardless. Traders say the contracts, dubbed lottery tickets, will likely appreciate if oil prices keep rising or if participants expect crude markets to grow more volatile.Buyers are betting on higher volatility more than they are placing a wager on higher oil prices, said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities USA. Volatility and options are intrinsically linked, so all else being equal, that would boost the price of the contracts.Mr. Yawger doesn’t think oil will get close to $100 a barrel, noting that the futures market pegs WTI prices at about $61 a barrel for December 2022. He said owners of $100 calls will benefit anyway because expected volatility is low and likely to rise. Sellers are “basically giving [volatility] away” at current prices, he said.A trader who bought $100 calls for December 2022 at the end of last year would already be sitting on paper gains. The contracts traded at 66 U.S. cents Friday, QuikStrike data show, up from 27 cents on Dec. 31.Traders say they are still relatively cheap because demand from producers seeking protection against falling prices means oil puts are typically more expensive than calls. The $100 call trade isn’t risk free, however.Jean-Louis Le Mee, chief executive of Westbeck Capital Management LLP, forecasts crude prices will surge to record highs in 2023 but is surprised at how many $100 Brent call options for 2021 are outstanding. The hedge fund steers clear of such bullish contracts, preferring to buy options that Mr. Le Mee thinks will settle in the money. Even if volatility rises, $100 contracts will lose value if it happens too close to expiration, he said.Instead, Westbeck has booked profits by selling $65 Brent-crude calls for December 2022 that it bought last year and used the proceeds to buy $80 contracts for December 2023.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/114541963"}