Food for thought_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-06-08

Food for thought

Global investors are losing interest in U.S. stocks and that will be a game changer<blockquote>全球投资者对美股失去兴趣，这将改变游戏规则</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":117662932,"tweetId":"117662932","gmtCreate":1623138920626,"gmtModify":1631893766847,"author":{"id":3567466731322784,"idStr":"3567466731322784","authorId":3567466731322784,"authorIdStr":"3567466731322784","name":"娜神宝宝","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Food for thought&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Food for thought&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Food for thought","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117662932","repostId":1168188820,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168188820","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623138527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168188820?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-08 15:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Global investors are losing interest in U.S. stocks and that will be a game changer<blockquote>全球投资者对美股失去兴趣，这将改变游戏规则</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168188820","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The surge of money flowing into the U.S. market from around the world is not sustainable.\n\nFor some ","content":" The surge of money flowing into the U.S. market from around the world is not sustainable. For some months now, the U.S. has looked exceptional compared to the rest of the world. Better COVID-19 vaccine rollout. Bigger fiscal policy push. Bolder reopening. Economic and market indicators showed this too. Consumption spiked well-above pre-pandemic levels and U.S. yields moved higher in anticipation of normalization. Investors put a huge bet on U.S. equities, with foreign investors accumulating U.S. stocks at unprecedented speed in 2020 and into 2021.<blockquote>从世界各地流入美国市场的资金激增是不可持续的。几个月来，与世界其他地区相比，美国看起来很特别。更好的新冠肺炎疫苗推广。更大的财政政策推动。更大胆的重新开放。经济和市场指标也显示了这一点。消费飙升，远高于大流行前的水平，美国国债收益率因预期正常化而走高。投资者对美国股市下了巨大的赌注，外国投资者在2020年和2021年以前所未有的速度积累了美国股票。</blockquote> But cracks are forming in the U.S. exceptionalism narrative, and the money flow is at risk of a dramatic reversal.<blockquote>但美国例外论叙事正在形成裂痕，资金流动面临急剧逆转的风险。</blockquote> It is well-known that the economic recovery in the U.S. has been swift, and the debate has even shifted from strong growth towards overheating risk. But what is perhaps less known is how incredibly large the amount of money betting on a strong U.S. economic recovery has been.<blockquote>众所周知，美国经济复苏迅速，争论甚至从强劲增长转向过热风险。但也许鲜为人知的是，押注于美国经济强劲复苏的资金数额有多大。</blockquote> Exceptionalism in money flow<blockquote>货币流动中的例外论</blockquote> The chart below shows foreign net equity inflow into the U.S. since 2000 based on balance of payment data. For several quarters, the U.S. attracted historically large equity inflows, with net foreign inflows of more than $400 billion in 2020.<blockquote>下图根据国际收支数据显示了自2000年以来流入美国的外国净股权。几个季度以来，美国吸引了历史上大量的股票流入，2020年外国净流入超过4000亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f6abf41a80e588613658d84ac1eaa3\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"718\">The next chart shows the balance of payments data broken down into inflows (liabilities) and outflows (assets). It highlights that the inflows were the driving force of the large net numbers and that they accelerated during 2020.<blockquote>下图显示了细分为流入（负债）和流出（资产）的国际收支数据。它强调，资金流入是大量净流入的驱动力，并且在2020年期间加速。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0463f3dc176b8202dfd4ad7e06e93111\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"672\">The foreign inflows in the fourth quarter of 2020 alone were &gt;$250bn (&gt;$1 trillion annualized) and in the region 5% of GDP. Even during the 1999-2001 dotcom bubble, we did not see many quarters above 2% of GDP.<blockquote>仅2020年第四季度的外国流入量就超过2500亿美元（年化超过1万亿美元），占该地区GDP的5%。即使在1999-2001年的互联网泡沫期间，我们也没有看到多少季度超过GDP的2%。</blockquote> U.S. exceptionalism also is illustrated in this next chart, which shows U.S. “market share” in total global cross-border equity flows. The U.S. has indeed been exceptional, grabbing close to all of the world’s recent gross-flow (some flows to specific countries can be negative).<blockquote>下一张图表也说明了美国的例外论，该图表显示了美国在全球跨境股权流动总额中的“市场份额”。美国确实是个例外，几乎占据了世界近期所有的总流量（一些流向特定国家的流量可能是负的）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6992f35f36732c19fa646d842483e53\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"827\">Exceptionalism is now in question<blockquote>例外论现在受到质疑</blockquote> Enough about the past. Where do investors stand now, and where are we heading? Many pieces of evidence show that investors are questioning the exceptionalism narrative and changing the direction of money flow:<blockquote>过去的事说够了。投资者现在的立场是什么，我们将走向何方？许多证据表明，投资者正在质疑例外论叙事，并改变资金流动方向：</blockquote> First, the latest official monthly data (the March TIC data) shows that foreign appetite for U.S. stocks is potentially waning in an important way. The strong momentum from 2020 continued into January and February 2021. But there was a big reversal in March.<blockquote>首先，最新的官方月度数据（3月份TIC数据）显示，外国对美国股市的兴趣可能正在以一种重要的方式减弱。2020年的强劲势头持续到2021年1月和2月。但3月份出现了大逆转。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc43d90772a6546441d2f422afbe8887\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"573\">Second, in a way this is all logical, since the rest of the world is catching up with the U.S. on the vaccine front. The chart below shows that the EU began to vaccinate more people (per capita) than the U.S. in May. Recently China has also surpassed the U.S. (and the EU). This means that other countries are quickly catching up in terms of immunity and economic reopening will follow shortly thereafter.<blockquote>其次，在某种程度上，这一切都是合乎逻辑的，因为世界其他地区正在疫苗方面赶上美国。下图显示，欧盟在5月份开始接种疫苗的人数（人均）超过了美国。最近中国也超过了美国（和欧盟）。这意味着其他国家在免疫力方面正在迅速赶上，此后不久将重新开放经济。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf91e8b1846be8ba1f2c3df15589c716\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"902\">Third, U.S. bond yields, which spiked in the first quarter of 2021, are no longer leading the global move higher in interest rates. The chart below shows how U.S.10-year TreasuryTMUBMUSD10Y,1.561%yield rose by 0.8 percentage points in the first quarter (gray bars), much more than European yields. But in the second quarter of 2021 (blue bars) the ranking is totally different. Yields in Europe are rising the most, while U.S. yields are declining.<blockquote>第三，2021年第一季度飙升的美国债券收益率不再引领全球利率走高。下图显示了美国10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.561%收益率在第一季度上涨了0.8个百分点（灰色条），远高于欧洲收益率。但在2021年第二季度（蓝条），排名完全不同。欧洲的收益率上升幅度最大，而美国的收益率则在下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8cb07b7c832cf87fdf3ff2b1cd2176\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"756\">Fourth, relative equity market performance is starting to flip. After a long period of structural U.S. equity market outperformance, U.S. leadership is in question. Relative to EurostoxxSXXE,0.15%(the index of the most liquid European stocks), the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.08%has underperformed since October 2020. This could well have further to run, given valuation differences — and especially if technology stocks are a drag on the U.S. market.<blockquote>第四，股票市场的相对表现开始转变。在美国股市长期结构性表现优异后，美国的领导地位受到质疑。相对于EurostoxxSXXE, 0.15%（流动性最强的欧洲股票指数），标准普尔500SPX,-0.08%自2020年10月以来表现不佳。考虑到估值差异，这种情况很可能会进一步发展，特别是如果科技股拖累美国市场的话。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2d9bad697ba7ff1b24909132362c72\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"752\">We can already observe a form of divergence between U.S. equity performance (erratic) and the underlying economic performance (still strong). The money flows make that picture more understandable: money flows into the U.S. equity market got so extended that some mean-reversion was inevitable.<blockquote>我们已经可以观察到美国股市表现（不稳定）和潜在经济表现（仍然强劲）之间的某种背离。资金流动让这种情况变得更容易理解：流入美国股市的资金如此之多，以至于某种均值回归是不可避免的。</blockquote> Less demand for U.S. equity products has implications for relative U.S. equity performance, and may also impact the U.S. dollar via the overall structure of balance of payment financing. This is a problem in the context of awidening current account deficit.<blockquote>对美国股票产品的需求减少会影响美国股票的相对表现，也可能通过国际收支融资的整体结构影响美元。在经常账户赤字不断扩大的背景下，这是一个问题。</blockquote> The U.S. has an exceptional fiscal stance and an exceptional current account position. If financing via equities is becoming less exceptional, something else will have to give.<blockquote>美国拥有特殊的财政状况和特殊的经常账户头寸。如果通过股票融资变得不那么特殊，就必须做出其他贡献。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global investors are losing interest in U.S. stocks and that will be a game changer<blockquote>全球投资者对美股失去兴趣，这将改变游戏规则</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal investors are losing interest in U.S. stocks and that will be a game changer<blockquote>全球投资者对美股失去兴趣，这将改变游戏规则</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-08 15:48\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n The surge of money flowing into the U.S. market from around the world is not sustainable. For some months now, the U.S. has looked exceptional compared to the rest of the world. Better COVID-19 vaccine rollout. Bigger fiscal policy push. Bolder reopening. Economic and market indicators showed this too. Consumption spiked well-above pre-pandemic levels and U.S. yields moved higher in anticipation of normalization. Investors put a huge bet on U.S. equities, with foreign investors accumulating U.S. stocks at unprecedented speed in 2020 and into 2021.<blockquote>从世界各地流入美国市场的资金激增是不可持续的。几个月来，与世界其他地区相比，美国看起来很特别。更好的新冠肺炎疫苗推广。更大的财政政策推动。更大胆的重新开放。经济和市场指标也显示了这一点。消费飙升，远高于大流行前的水平，美国国债收益率因预期正常化而走高。投资者对美国股市下了巨大的赌注，外国投资者在2020年和2021年以前所未有的速度积累了美国股票。</blockquote> But cracks are forming in the U.S. exceptionalism narrative, and the money flow is at risk of a dramatic reversal.<blockquote>但美国例外论叙事正在形成裂痕，资金流动面临急剧逆转的风险。</blockquote> It is well-known that the economic recovery in the U.S. has been swift, and the debate has even shifted from strong growth towards overheating risk. But what is perhaps less known is how incredibly large the amount of money betting on a strong U.S. economic recovery has been.<blockquote>众所周知，美国经济复苏迅速，争论甚至从强劲增长转向过热风险。但也许鲜为人知的是，押注于美国经济强劲复苏的资金数额有多大。</blockquote> Exceptionalism in money flow<blockquote>货币流动中的例外论</blockquote> The chart below shows foreign net equity inflow into the U.S. since 2000 based on balance of payment data. For several quarters, the U.S. attracted historically large equity inflows, with net foreign inflows of more than $400 billion in 2020.<blockquote>下图根据国际收支数据显示了自2000年以来流入美国的外国净股权。几个季度以来，美国吸引了历史上大量的股票流入，2020年外国净流入超过4000亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f6abf41a80e588613658d84ac1eaa3\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"718\">The next chart shows the balance of payments data broken down into inflows (liabilities) and outflows (assets). It highlights that the inflows were the driving force of the large net numbers and that they accelerated during 2020.<blockquote>下图显示了细分为流入（负债）和流出（资产）的国际收支数据。它强调，资金流入是大量净流入的驱动力，并且在2020年期间加速。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0463f3dc176b8202dfd4ad7e06e93111\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"672\">The foreign inflows in the fourth quarter of 2020 alone were &gt;$250bn (&gt;$1 trillion annualized) and in the region 5% of GDP. Even during the 1999-2001 dotcom bubble, we did not see many quarters above 2% of GDP.<blockquote>仅2020年第四季度的外国流入量就超过2500亿美元（年化超过1万亿美元），占该地区GDP的5%。即使在1999-2001年的互联网泡沫期间，我们也没有看到多少季度超过GDP的2%。</blockquote> U.S. exceptionalism also is illustrated in this next chart, which shows U.S. “market share” in total global cross-border equity flows. The U.S. has indeed been exceptional, grabbing close to all of the world’s recent gross-flow (some flows to specific countries can be negative).<blockquote>下一张图表也说明了美国的例外论，该图表显示了美国在全球跨境股权流动总额中的“市场份额”。美国确实是个例外，几乎占据了世界近期所有的总流量（一些流向特定国家的流量可能是负的）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6992f35f36732c19fa646d842483e53\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"827\">Exceptionalism is now in question<blockquote>例外论现在受到质疑</blockquote> Enough about the past. Where do investors stand now, and where are we heading? Many pieces of evidence show that investors are questioning the exceptionalism narrative and changing the direction of money flow:<blockquote>过去的事说够了。投资者现在的立场是什么，我们将走向何方？许多证据表明，投资者正在质疑例外论叙事，并改变资金流动方向：</blockquote> First, the latest official monthly data (the March TIC data) shows that foreign appetite for U.S. stocks is potentially waning in an important way. The strong momentum from 2020 continued into January and February 2021. But there was a big reversal in March.<blockquote>首先，最新的官方月度数据（3月份TIC数据）显示，外国对美国股市的兴趣可能正在以一种重要的方式减弱。2020年的强劲势头持续到2021年1月和2月。但3月份出现了大逆转。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc43d90772a6546441d2f422afbe8887\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"573\">Second, in a way this is all logical, since the rest of the world is catching up with the U.S. on the vaccine front. The chart below shows that the EU began to vaccinate more people (per capita) than the U.S. in May. Recently China has also surpassed the U.S. (and the EU). This means that other countries are quickly catching up in terms of immunity and economic reopening will follow shortly thereafter.<blockquote>其次，在某种程度上，这一切都是合乎逻辑的，因为世界其他地区正在疫苗方面赶上美国。下图显示，欧盟在5月份开始接种疫苗的人数（人均）超过了美国。最近中国也超过了美国（和欧盟）。这意味着其他国家在免疫力方面正在迅速赶上，此后不久将重新开放经济。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf91e8b1846be8ba1f2c3df15589c716\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"902\">Third, U.S. bond yields, which spiked in the first quarter of 2021, are no longer leading the global move higher in interest rates. The chart below shows how U.S.10-year TreasuryTMUBMUSD10Y,1.561%yield rose by 0.8 percentage points in the first quarter (gray bars), much more than European yields. But in the second quarter of 2021 (blue bars) the ranking is totally different. Yields in Europe are rising the most, while U.S. yields are declining.<blockquote>第三，2021年第一季度飙升的美国债券收益率不再引领全球利率走高。下图显示了美国10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.561%收益率在第一季度上涨了0.8个百分点（灰色条），远高于欧洲收益率。但在2021年第二季度（蓝条），排名完全不同。欧洲的收益率上升幅度最大，而美国的收益率则在下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8cb07b7c832cf87fdf3ff2b1cd2176\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"756\">Fourth, relative equity market performance is starting to flip. After a long period of structural U.S. equity market outperformance, U.S. leadership is in question. Relative to EurostoxxSXXE,0.15%(the index of the most liquid European stocks), the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.08%has underperformed since October 2020. This could well have further to run, given valuation differences — and especially if technology stocks are a drag on the U.S. market.<blockquote>第四，股票市场的相对表现开始转变。在美国股市长期结构性表现优异后，美国的领导地位受到质疑。相对于EurostoxxSXXE, 0.15%（流动性最强的欧洲股票指数），标准普尔500SPX,-0.08%自2020年10月以来表现不佳。考虑到估值差异，这种情况很可能会进一步发展，特别是如果科技股拖累美国市场的话。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2d9bad697ba7ff1b24909132362c72\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"752\">We can already observe a form of divergence between U.S. equity performance (erratic) and the underlying economic performance (still strong). The money flows make that picture more understandable: money flows into the U.S. equity market got so extended that some mean-reversion was inevitable.<blockquote>我们已经可以观察到美国股市表现（不稳定）和潜在经济表现（仍然强劲）之间的某种背离。资金流动让这种情况变得更容易理解：流入美国股市的资金如此之多，以至于某种均值回归是不可避免的。</blockquote> Less demand for U.S. equity products has implications for relative U.S. equity performance, and may also impact the U.S. dollar via the overall structure of balance of payment financing. This is a problem in the context of awidening current account deficit.<blockquote>对美国股票产品的需求减少会影响美国股票的相对表现，也可能通过国际收支融资的整体结构影响美元。在经常账户赤字不断扩大的背景下，这是一个问题。</blockquote> The U.S. has an exceptional fiscal stance and an exceptional current account position. If financing via equities is becoming less exceptional, something else will have to give.<blockquote>美国拥有特殊的财政状况和特殊的经常账户头寸。如果通过股票融资变得不那么特殊，就必须做出其他贡献。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-investors-enthusiasm-for-u-s-stocks-is-fading-and-that-will-be-a-game-changer-11623049201?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-investors-enthusiasm-for-u-s-stocks-is-fading-and-that-will-be-a-game-changer-11623049201?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168188820","content_text":"The surge of money flowing into the U.S. market from around the world is not sustainable.\n\nFor some months now, the U.S. has looked exceptional compared to the rest of the world. Better COVID-19 vaccine rollout. Bigger fiscal policy push. Bolder reopening. Economic and market indicators showed this too. Consumption spiked well-above pre-pandemic levels and U.S. yields moved higher in anticipation of normalization. Investors put a huge bet on U.S. equities, with foreign investors accumulating U.S. stocks at unprecedented speed in 2020 and into 2021.\nBut cracks are forming in the U.S. exceptionalism narrative, and the money flow is at risk of a dramatic reversal.\nIt is well-known that the economic recovery in the U.S. has been swift, and the debate has even shifted from strong growth towards overheating risk. But what is perhaps less known is how incredibly large the amount of money betting on a strong U.S. economic recovery has been.\nExceptionalism in money flow\nThe chart below shows foreign net equity inflow into the U.S. since 2000 based on balance of payment data. For several quarters, the U.S. attracted historically large equity inflows, with net foreign inflows of more than $400 billion in 2020.\nThe next chart shows the balance of payments data broken down into inflows (liabilities) and outflows (assets). It highlights that the inflows were the driving force of the large net numbers and that they accelerated during 2020.\nThe foreign inflows in the fourth quarter of 2020 alone were >$250bn (>$1 trillion annualized) and in the region 5% of GDP. Even during the 1999-2001 dotcom bubble, we did not see many quarters above 2% of GDP.\nU.S. exceptionalism also is illustrated in this next chart, which shows U.S. “market share” in total global cross-border equity flows. The U.S. has indeed been exceptional, grabbing close to all of the world’s recent gross-flow (some flows to specific countries can be negative).\nExceptionalism is now in question\nEnough about the past. Where do investors stand now, and where are we heading? Many pieces of evidence show that investors are questioning the exceptionalism narrative and changing the direction of money flow:\nFirst, the latest official monthly data (the March TIC data) shows that foreign appetite for U.S. stocks is potentially waning in an important way. The strong momentum from 2020 continued into January and February 2021. But there was a big reversal in March.\nSecond, in a way this is all logical, since the rest of the world is catching up with the U.S. on the vaccine front. The chart below shows that the EU began to vaccinate more people (per capita) than the U.S. in May. Recently China has also surpassed the U.S. (and the EU). This means that other countries are quickly catching up in terms of immunity and economic reopening will follow shortly thereafter.\nThird, U.S. bond yields, which spiked in the first quarter of 2021, are no longer leading the global move higher in interest rates. The chart below shows how U.S.10-year TreasuryTMUBMUSD10Y,1.561%yield rose by 0.8 percentage points in the first quarter (gray bars), much more than European yields. But in the second quarter of 2021 (blue bars) the ranking is totally different. Yields in Europe are rising the most, while U.S. yields are declining.\nFourth, relative equity market performance is starting to flip. After a long period of structural U.S. equity market outperformance, U.S. leadership is in question. Relative to EurostoxxSXXE,0.15%(the index of the most liquid European stocks), the S&P 500SPX,-0.08%has underperformed since October 2020. This could well have further to run, given valuation differences — and especially if technology stocks are a drag on the U.S. market.\nWe can already observe a form of divergence between U.S. equity performance (erratic) and the underlying economic performance (still strong). The money flows make that picture more understandable: money flows into the U.S. equity market got so extended that some mean-reversion was inevitable.\nLess demand for U.S. equity products has implications for relative U.S. equity performance, and may also impact the U.S. dollar via the overall structure of balance of payment financing. This is a problem in the context of awidening current account deficit.\nThe U.S. has an exceptional fiscal stance and an exceptional current account position. If financing via equities is becoming less exceptional, something else will have to give.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":525,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/117662932"}