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2021-06-08

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Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead<blockquote>警告信号调整即将到来</blockquote>

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Such drawdowns are historically very common within any given year of an ongoing bull market. As&nbsp;Sentiment Trader&nbsp;recently noted, we are now in one of the more extended periods without such an occurrence.<blockquote>在过去的几周里，我们讨论不断上升的风险调整幅度在5-10%之间，最有可能是在今年夏天。从历史上看，在持续牛市的任何一年中，这种回撤都是非常常见的。作为情绪交易者正如最近指出的，我们现在正处于没有这种情况发生的较长时期之一。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eced82eef65e87252e40ed177a747be9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Of course, as is always the case, amid a bullish advance, it is easy to become complacent as prices rise.<blockquote>当然，和往常一样，在看涨的过程中，随着价格上涨，人们很容易变得自满。</blockquote> Before we go any further, it is essential to clarify we are discussing only the potential for a short-term correction.&nbsp;As is often the case, some tend to extrapolate such to mean I am saying a&nbsp;“crash”&nbsp;is coming, and you should be all in cash. Such an extreme move is ill-advised without a significant weight of evidence.<blockquote>在我们进一步讨论之前，有必要澄清我们只是在讨论短期调整的可能性。通常情况下，有些人倾向于推断出我在说一个“撞车”来了，你应该全是现金。在没有大量证据的情况下，这种极端的举动是不明智的。</blockquote> However, there is reason to be cautious in the near term.<blockquote>然而，短期内有理由保持谨慎。</blockquote> Suppressed Volatility<blockquote>波动性被抑制</blockquote> As I stated, during a&nbsp;“bullish advance,”investors become incredibly complacent.&nbsp;That“complacency”&nbsp;leads to excessive speculative risk-taking.We see clear evidence of that activity in various“risk-on”&nbsp;asset classes from Cryptocurrencies, to SPAC’s, to“Meme Stocks.”<blockquote>正如我所说，在“看涨推进，”投资者变得异常自满。那个“自满”导致过度投机冒险。我们在各种活动中看到了明显证据“冒险”资产类别从加密货币到SPAC，再到“模因股票。”</blockquote> A measure of speculative excess is the Volatility Index (VIX). The chart below is from my colleague Jim Colquitt of&nbsp;Armor ETF’s.<blockquote>衡量投机过度的指标是波动率指数（VIX）。下面的图表来自我的同事Jim Colquitt装甲ETF的。</blockquote> The top pane is the&nbsp;15-day moving average of VIX, which is on an inverted scale. The bottom pane is the S&amp;P 500 index.<blockquote>顶部窗格是VIX的15天移动平均线，呈倒置刻度。底部窗格是标普500指数。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/245e68edb15dbfa4f8f146a789b89809\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"712\"><blockquote></blockquote> “The market may have one last push higher over the next several weeks. Such will take the VIX even lower and complete the VIX wedge pattern. That pattern has been evident in the last three 10% or greater corrections. &nbsp;By this measure, the correction should begin somewhere around July 21st&nbsp;– August 10th.” – Jim Colquitt As they say,&nbsp;“timing is everything.”While a July-August time frame is entirely possible, a June-July correction is just as likely. What is essential, as we will discuss momentarily, is understanding that risk is prevalent.<blockquote>“未来几周，市场可能会最后一次走高。这将使VIX进一步走低，并完成VIX楔形形态。这种模式在过去三次10%或更大的修正中很明显。按照这个标准，调整应该在7月21日至8月10日左右开始。”-吉姆·科尔奎特正如他们所说，“时机就是一切。”虽然7月至8月的时间框架是完全可能的，但6月至7月的调整也是可能的。正如我们稍后将讨论的，最重要的是理解风险是普遍的。</blockquote> Market Exuberance Stretched Again<blockquote>市场景气度再度舒展</blockquote> It isn’t just complacency that is suggestive of a short-term market correction. There are numerous others as well.<blockquote>暗示短期市场调整的不仅仅是自满情绪。还有许多其他的。</blockquote> As my friend Daniel Lacalle recently posted,&nbsp;Morgan Stanley‘s market timing indicator is at levels that have typically coincided with market downturns. Just for reference, the current reading is the most&nbsp;“bearish”&nbsp;on record.<blockquote>正如我的朋友丹尼尔·拉卡勒(Daniel Lacalle)最近发布的那样，摩根士丹利的市场时机指标处于通常与市场低迷同时发生的水平。仅供参考，当前读数最“看跌”记录在案。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c918064930caffdab80b05f255085f9\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"459\"><blockquote></blockquote> Furthermore, a host of other indicators posted by&nbsp;@Not_Jim_Crameralso suggests there are reasons for concern about a correction.<blockquote>此外，发布的许多其他指标@Not_Jim_Cramer也表明有理由担心调整。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12bad2caf91007cd9b37c0ef04e90e29\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"547\"><blockquote></blockquote> Inflationary Warning<blockquote>通货膨胀警告</blockquote> Lastly, this note from Tom Bowley caught my eye on Saturday.<blockquote>最后，汤姆·鲍利的这封信在周六引起了我的注意。</blockquote> “The S&amp;P 500 reached a high on Friday of 4233.45, narrowly eclipsing the all-time high close of 4232.60 from May 7th. Unfortunately for the bulls, selling in the final few minutes ruined the breakout attempt. This false breakout, ever so slight, could be quite ominous for next week and there’s one MAJOR reason why. Inflation data. That May 7th all-time high came just days before the shocking April CPI data was released on May 12th. Now here we are back at the high again. As the late Yogi Berra might say, “it’s deja vu all over again!” I don’t believe inflation to be a problem, but just the possibility of it could trigger scary headlines and encourage selling in the week ahead.” &nbsp;–&nbsp;Tom Bowley, Stockcharts The chart below shows the differential between the annual rates of change of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI.)&nbsp;It should not be surprising that when PPI surges well ahead of CPI, equity markets tend to run into problems.Such is because this shows producers are unable to pass the inflation along to their customers.&nbsp;Consequently, this leads to reduced earnings and a repricing of risk assets.<blockquote>“标普500周五触及4233.45点的高点，勉强超过5月7日以来的历史收盘高点4232.60点。不幸的是，对于多头来说，最后几分钟的抛售破坏了突破尝试。这种虚假的突破，无论多么轻微，都可能是下周的不祥之兆，这有一个主要原因。通胀数据。5月7日的历史新高是在5月12日令人震惊的4月份CPI数据发布的前几天出现的。现在我们又回到了高潮。正如已故的约吉·贝拉可能会说的那样，“似曾相识又来了！”我不认为通货膨胀是一个问题，但仅仅是通货膨胀的可能性就可能引发可怕的头条新闻并鼓励未来一周的抛售。”——汤姆·鲍利，股票图表下图显示了生产者价格指数(PPI)和消费者价格指数(CPI)的年变化率之间的差异。当PPI飙升远远超过CPI时，股市往往会遇到问题，这并不奇怪。这是因为这表明生产商无法将通货膨胀转嫁给他们的客户。因此，这导致收益减少和风险资产的重新定价。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf24f2c1d3200f6fdb7a14a83d419b5\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"519\"><blockquote></blockquote> Tom goes on to state inflation will not be a problem longer-term correctly. However, in the near term, the surge in inflation will weigh on outlooks, creating corrective actions.<blockquote>汤姆继续指出，从长远来看，通货膨胀不会是一个问题。然而，在短期内，通胀飙升将给前景带来压力，从而引发纠正行动。</blockquote> The Problem With Technicals<blockquote>技术问题</blockquote> I want to reiterate a point from the most recent&nbsp;newsletter:<blockquote>我想重申最近的一点时事通讯：</blockquote> The biggest problem is that technical indicators do not distinguish between a consolidation, a correction, or an outright bear market. &nbsp;As such, if you ignore the signals as they occur, by the time you realize it’s a deep correction, it is too late to do much about it. Therefore, we must treat each signal with the same respect and adjust risk accordingly. The opportunity costs of doing so are minimal. If we reduce risk and the market continues to rise, we can increase risk exposures. Yes, we sacrifice some short-term performance. However, if we reduce risk and the market declines sharply, we not only protect capital during the decline but have the liquidity to deploy at lower price levels.<blockquote>最大的问题是技术指标无法区分盘整、调整或彻底的熊市。因此，如果你在信号出现时忽视它们，当你意识到这是一次深度修正时，就太晚了。因此，我们必须以同样的尊重对待每个信号，并相应地调整风险。这样做的机会成本很小。如果我们降低风险，市场继续上涨，我们可以增加风险敞口。是的，我们牺牲了一些短期业绩。然而，如果我们降低风险并且市场大幅下跌，我们不仅可以在下跌期间保护资本，还可以在较低的价格水平上部署流动性。</blockquote> Such is the problem with“buy and hold”&nbsp;strategies.&nbsp;Yes, you will perform in line with the market, but given that you didn’t&nbsp;“sell high,”&nbsp;there is no cash available with which to&nbsp;“buy low”&nbsp;in the future.<blockquote>这就是问题所在“买入并持有”策略。是的，你的表现会与市场一致，但鉴于你没有“高抛。”并无现金可用于支付“低吸”在未来。</blockquote> With that stated, here is the most significant problem of technical analysis.All of the warnings noted above suggest there is a risk of a correction in the near term.&nbsp;However, technical analysis does not differentiate between a 5% pullback, a 10% correction, or a“bear market.”<blockquote>综上所述，这是技术分析最重要的问题。上述所有警告都表明近期存在回调风险。然而，技术分析并不区分5%的回调、10%的修正或“熊市。”</blockquote> You will only find that out once it begins, and such is why risk management is essential.<blockquote>只有当它开始时，你才会发现，这就是为什么风险管理是必不可少的。</blockquote> “Risk management is much like driving a car. If there is a blind spot ahead, and you don’t tap on the brakes to control your speed, you are unlikely to avoid the hazard ahead. Yes, tapping on the brakes to provide more control over the car will slow your arrival time to your destination. However, being late is a much better option than not getting there at all.” Just A Warning<blockquote>“风险管理很像开车，如果前方有盲区，而你不踩刹车控制车速，你就不太可能避开前方的危险。是的，踩刹车以更好地控制汽车会减慢您到达目的地的时间。然而，迟到比根本不去那里要好得多。”只是个警告</blockquote> Again, I am not implying, suggesting, or stating that such signals mean going 100% to cash.&nbsp;What I am suggesting is that when&nbsp;“sell signals”&nbsp;are given, that is the time when individuals should perform some essential portfolio risk management such as:<blockquote>再说一次，我并不是暗示、建议或陈述这样的信号意味着100%兑现。我的建议是当“卖出信号”给出，这是个人应该执行一些基本的投资组合风险管理的时间，例如：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Trim back winning positions to original portfolio weights:Investment Rule: Let Winners Run<blockquote><ul><li>将获胜头寸削减至原始投资组合权重：投资法则：让赢家奔跑</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Sell positions that simply are not working (if the position was not working in a rising market, it likely won’t in a declining market.)Investment Rule: Cut Losers Short<blockquote><li>卖出根本不起作用的头寸（如果该头寸在上涨的市场中不起作用，那么在下跌的市场中也可能不起作用。）投资法则：做空输家</li></blockquote></li> <li>Hold the cash raised from these activities until the next buying opportunity occurs.Investment Rule: Buy Low<blockquote><li>持有从这些活动中筹集的现金，直到下一次购买机会出现。投资法则：低吸</li></blockquote></li> </ul> As stated, there is minimal risk in&nbsp;“risk management.”&nbsp;In the long term, the results of avoiding periods of severe capital loss will outweigh missed short-term gains.<blockquote>如上所述，风险最小“风险管理。”从长远来看，避免严重资本损失时期的结果将超过错过的短期收益。</blockquote> While I agree you can not“time the markets,”you can “manage risk” to improve your long-term outcomes.<blockquote>虽然我同意你不能“把握市场时机”，你可以“管理风险”来改善你的长期结果。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead<blockquote>警告信号调整即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarning Signs A Correction Is Ahead<blockquote>警告信号调整即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-06-08 22:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAfter a decent rally from the recent lows, there are multiple warning signs a correction approaches.<blockquote>在从近期低点大幅反弹后，有多个警告信号表明调整即将来临。</blockquote> Over the last few weeks, we&nbsp;discussed the rising risk&nbsp;of a correction between 5-10%, most likely this summer. Such drawdowns are historically very common within any given year of an ongoing bull market. As&nbsp;Sentiment Trader&nbsp;recently noted, we are now in one of the more extended periods without such an occurrence.<blockquote>在过去的几周里，我们讨论不断上升的风险调整幅度在5-10%之间，最有可能是在今年夏天。从历史上看，在持续牛市的任何一年中，这种回撤都是非常常见的。作为情绪交易者正如最近指出的，我们现在正处于没有这种情况发生的较长时期之一。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eced82eef65e87252e40ed177a747be9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Of course, as is always the case, amid a bullish advance, it is easy to become complacent as prices rise.<blockquote>当然，和往常一样，在看涨的过程中，随着价格上涨，人们很容易变得自满。</blockquote> Before we go any further, it is essential to clarify we are discussing only the potential for a short-term correction.&nbsp;As is often the case, some tend to extrapolate such to mean I am saying a&nbsp;“crash”&nbsp;is coming, and you should be all in cash. Such an extreme move is ill-advised without a significant weight of evidence.<blockquote>在我们进一步讨论之前，有必要澄清我们只是在讨论短期调整的可能性。通常情况下，有些人倾向于推断出我在说一个“撞车”来了，你应该全是现金。在没有大量证据的情况下，这种极端的举动是不明智的。</blockquote> However, there is reason to be cautious in the near term.<blockquote>然而，短期内有理由保持谨慎。</blockquote> Suppressed Volatility<blockquote>波动性被抑制</blockquote> As I stated, during a&nbsp;“bullish advance,”investors become incredibly complacent.&nbsp;That“complacency”&nbsp;leads to excessive speculative risk-taking.We see clear evidence of that activity in various“risk-on”&nbsp;asset classes from Cryptocurrencies, to SPAC’s, to“Meme Stocks.”<blockquote>正如我所说，在“看涨推进，”投资者变得异常自满。那个“自满”导致过度投机冒险。我们在各种活动中看到了明显证据“冒险”资产类别从加密货币到SPAC，再到“模因股票。”</blockquote> A measure of speculative excess is the Volatility Index (VIX). The chart below is from my colleague Jim Colquitt of&nbsp;Armor ETF’s.<blockquote>衡量投机过度的指标是波动率指数（VIX）。下面的图表来自我的同事Jim Colquitt装甲ETF的。</blockquote> The top pane is the&nbsp;15-day moving average of VIX, which is on an inverted scale. The bottom pane is the S&amp;P 500 index.<blockquote>顶部窗格是VIX的15天移动平均线，呈倒置刻度。底部窗格是标普500指数。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/245e68edb15dbfa4f8f146a789b89809\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"712\"><blockquote></blockquote> “The market may have one last push higher over the next several weeks. Such will take the VIX even lower and complete the VIX wedge pattern. That pattern has been evident in the last three 10% or greater corrections. &nbsp;By this measure, the correction should begin somewhere around July 21st&nbsp;– August 10th.” – Jim Colquitt As they say,&nbsp;“timing is everything.”While a July-August time frame is entirely possible, a June-July correction is just as likely. What is essential, as we will discuss momentarily, is understanding that risk is prevalent.<blockquote>“未来几周，市场可能会最后一次走高。这将使VIX进一步走低，并完成VIX楔形形态。这种模式在过去三次10%或更大的修正中很明显。按照这个标准，调整应该在7月21日至8月10日左右开始。”-吉姆·科尔奎特正如他们所说，“时机就是一切。”虽然7月至8月的时间框架是完全可能的，但6月至7月的调整也是可能的。正如我们稍后将讨论的，最重要的是理解风险是普遍的。</blockquote> Market Exuberance Stretched Again<blockquote>市场景气度再度舒展</blockquote> It isn’t just complacency that is suggestive of a short-term market correction. There are numerous others as well.<blockquote>暗示短期市场调整的不仅仅是自满情绪。还有许多其他的。</blockquote> As my friend Daniel Lacalle recently posted,&nbsp;Morgan Stanley‘s market timing indicator is at levels that have typically coincided with market downturns. Just for reference, the current reading is the most&nbsp;“bearish”&nbsp;on record.<blockquote>正如我的朋友丹尼尔·拉卡勒(Daniel Lacalle)最近发布的那样，摩根士丹利的市场时机指标处于通常与市场低迷同时发生的水平。仅供参考，当前读数最“看跌”记录在案。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c918064930caffdab80b05f255085f9\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"459\"><blockquote></blockquote> Furthermore, a host of other indicators posted by&nbsp;@Not_Jim_Crameralso suggests there are reasons for concern about a correction.<blockquote>此外，发布的许多其他指标@Not_Jim_Cramer也表明有理由担心调整。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12bad2caf91007cd9b37c0ef04e90e29\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"547\"><blockquote></blockquote> Inflationary Warning<blockquote>通货膨胀警告</blockquote> Lastly, this note from Tom Bowley caught my eye on Saturday.<blockquote>最后，汤姆·鲍利的这封信在周六引起了我的注意。</blockquote> “The S&amp;P 500 reached a high on Friday of 4233.45, narrowly eclipsing the all-time high close of 4232.60 from May 7th. Unfortunately for the bulls, selling in the final few minutes ruined the breakout attempt. This false breakout, ever so slight, could be quite ominous for next week and there’s one MAJOR reason why. Inflation data. That May 7th all-time high came just days before the shocking April CPI data was released on May 12th. Now here we are back at the high again. As the late Yogi Berra might say, “it’s deja vu all over again!” I don’t believe inflation to be a problem, but just the possibility of it could trigger scary headlines and encourage selling in the week ahead.” &nbsp;–&nbsp;Tom Bowley, Stockcharts The chart below shows the differential between the annual rates of change of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI.)&nbsp;It should not be surprising that when PPI surges well ahead of CPI, equity markets tend to run into problems.Such is because this shows producers are unable to pass the inflation along to their customers.&nbsp;Consequently, this leads to reduced earnings and a repricing of risk assets.<blockquote>“标普500周五触及4233.45点的高点，勉强超过5月7日以来的历史收盘高点4232.60点。不幸的是，对于多头来说，最后几分钟的抛售破坏了突破尝试。这种虚假的突破，无论多么轻微，都可能是下周的不祥之兆，这有一个主要原因。通胀数据。5月7日的历史新高是在5月12日令人震惊的4月份CPI数据发布的前几天出现的。现在我们又回到了高潮。正如已故的约吉·贝拉可能会说的那样，“似曾相识又来了！”我不认为通货膨胀是一个问题，但仅仅是通货膨胀的可能性就可能引发可怕的头条新闻并鼓励未来一周的抛售。”——汤姆·鲍利，股票图表下图显示了生产者价格指数(PPI)和消费者价格指数(CPI)的年变化率之间的差异。当PPI飙升远远超过CPI时，股市往往会遇到问题，这并不奇怪。这是因为这表明生产商无法将通货膨胀转嫁给他们的客户。因此，这导致收益减少和风险资产的重新定价。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf24f2c1d3200f6fdb7a14a83d419b5\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"519\"><blockquote></blockquote> Tom goes on to state inflation will not be a problem longer-term correctly. However, in the near term, the surge in inflation will weigh on outlooks, creating corrective actions.<blockquote>汤姆继续指出，从长远来看，通货膨胀不会是一个问题。然而，在短期内，通胀飙升将给前景带来压力，从而引发纠正行动。</blockquote> The Problem With Technicals<blockquote>技术问题</blockquote> I want to reiterate a point from the most recent&nbsp;newsletter:<blockquote>我想重申最近的一点时事通讯：</blockquote> The biggest problem is that technical indicators do not distinguish between a consolidation, a correction, or an outright bear market. &nbsp;As such, if you ignore the signals as they occur, by the time you realize it’s a deep correction, it is too late to do much about it. Therefore, we must treat each signal with the same respect and adjust risk accordingly. The opportunity costs of doing so are minimal. If we reduce risk and the market continues to rise, we can increase risk exposures. Yes, we sacrifice some short-term performance. However, if we reduce risk and the market declines sharply, we not only protect capital during the decline but have the liquidity to deploy at lower price levels.<blockquote>最大的问题是技术指标无法区分盘整、调整或彻底的熊市。因此，如果你在信号出现时忽视它们，当你意识到这是一次深度修正时，就太晚了。因此，我们必须以同样的尊重对待每个信号，并相应地调整风险。这样做的机会成本很小。如果我们降低风险，市场继续上涨，我们可以增加风险敞口。是的，我们牺牲了一些短期业绩。然而，如果我们降低风险并且市场大幅下跌，我们不仅可以在下跌期间保护资本，还可以在较低的价格水平上部署流动性。</blockquote> Such is the problem with“buy and hold”&nbsp;strategies.&nbsp;Yes, you will perform in line with the market, but given that you didn’t&nbsp;“sell high,”&nbsp;there is no cash available with which to&nbsp;“buy low”&nbsp;in the future.<blockquote>这就是问题所在“买入并持有”策略。是的，你的表现会与市场一致，但鉴于你没有“高抛。”并无现金可用于支付“低吸”在未来。</blockquote> With that stated, here is the most significant problem of technical analysis.All of the warnings noted above suggest there is a risk of a correction in the near term.&nbsp;However, technical analysis does not differentiate between a 5% pullback, a 10% correction, or a“bear market.”<blockquote>综上所述，这是技术分析最重要的问题。上述所有警告都表明近期存在回调风险。然而，技术分析并不区分5%的回调、10%的修正或“熊市。”</blockquote> You will only find that out once it begins, and such is why risk management is essential.<blockquote>只有当它开始时，你才会发现，这就是为什么风险管理是必不可少的。</blockquote> “Risk management is much like driving a car. If there is a blind spot ahead, and you don’t tap on the brakes to control your speed, you are unlikely to avoid the hazard ahead. Yes, tapping on the brakes to provide more control over the car will slow your arrival time to your destination. However, being late is a much better option than not getting there at all.” Just A Warning<blockquote>“风险管理很像开车，如果前方有盲区，而你不踩刹车控制车速，你就不太可能避开前方的危险。是的，踩刹车以更好地控制汽车会减慢您到达目的地的时间。然而，迟到比根本不去那里要好得多。”只是个警告</blockquote> Again, I am not implying, suggesting, or stating that such signals mean going 100% to cash.&nbsp;What I am suggesting is that when&nbsp;“sell signals”&nbsp;are given, that is the time when individuals should perform some essential portfolio risk management such as:<blockquote>再说一次，我并不是暗示、建议或陈述这样的信号意味着100%兑现。我的建议是当“卖出信号”给出，这是个人应该执行一些基本的投资组合风险管理的时间，例如：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Trim back winning positions to original portfolio weights:Investment Rule: Let Winners Run<blockquote><ul><li>将获胜头寸削减至原始投资组合权重：投资法则：让赢家奔跑</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Sell positions that simply are not working (if the position was not working in a rising market, it likely won’t in a declining market.)Investment Rule: Cut Losers Short<blockquote><li>卖出根本不起作用的头寸（如果该头寸在上涨的市场中不起作用，那么在下跌的市场中也可能不起作用。）投资法则：做空输家</li></blockquote></li> <li>Hold the cash raised from these activities until the next buying opportunity occurs.Investment Rule: Buy Low<blockquote><li>持有从这些活动中筹集的现金，直到下一次购买机会出现。投资法则：低吸</li></blockquote></li> </ul> As stated, there is minimal risk in&nbsp;“risk management.”&nbsp;In the long term, the results of avoiding periods of severe capital loss will outweigh missed short-term gains.<blockquote>如上所述，风险最小“风险管理。”从长远来看，避免严重资本损失时期的结果将超过错过的短期收益。</blockquote> While I agree you can not“time the markets,”you can “manage risk” to improve your long-term outcomes.<blockquote>虽然我同意你不能“把握市场时机”，你可以“管理风险”来改善你的长期结果。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warning-signs-correction-ahead?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warning-signs-correction-ahead?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108456666","content_text":"After a decent rally from the recent lows, there are multiple warning signs a correction approaches.\nOver the last few weeks, we discussed the rising risk of a correction between 5-10%, most likely this summer. Such drawdowns are historically very common within any given year of an ongoing bull market. As Sentiment Trader recently noted, we are now in one of the more extended periods without such an occurrence.\nOf course, as is always the case, amid a bullish advance, it is easy to become complacent as prices rise.\nBefore we go any further, it is essential to clarify we are discussing only the potential for a short-term correction. As is often the case, some tend to extrapolate such to mean I am saying a “crash” is coming, and you should be all in cash. Such an extreme move is ill-advised without a significant weight of evidence.\nHowever, there is reason to be cautious in the near term.\nSuppressed Volatility\nAs I stated, during a “bullish advance,”investors become incredibly complacent. That“complacency” leads to excessive speculative risk-taking.We see clear evidence of that activity in various“risk-on” asset classes from Cryptocurrencies, to SPAC’s, to“Meme Stocks.”\nA measure of speculative excess is the Volatility Index (VIX). The chart below is from my colleague Jim Colquitt of Armor ETF’s.\nThe top pane is the 15-day moving average of VIX, which is on an inverted scale. The bottom pane is the S&P 500 index.\n\n\n“The market may have one last push higher over the next several weeks. Such will take the VIX even lower and complete the VIX wedge pattern.\nThat pattern has been evident in the last three 10% or greater corrections.\n By this measure, the correction should begin somewhere around July 21st – August 10th.” – Jim Colquitt\n\nAs they say, “timing is everything.”While a July-August time frame is entirely possible, a June-July correction is just as likely. What is essential, as we will discuss momentarily, is understanding that risk is prevalent.\nMarket Exuberance Stretched Again\nIt isn’t just complacency that is suggestive of a short-term market correction. There are numerous others as well.\nAs my friend Daniel Lacalle recently posted, Morgan Stanley‘s market timing indicator is at levels that have typically coincided with market downturns. Just for reference, the current reading is the most “bearish” on record.\n\nFurthermore, a host of other indicators posted by @Not_Jim_Crameralso suggests there are reasons for concern about a correction.\n\nInflationary Warning\nLastly, this note from Tom Bowley caught my eye on Saturday.\n\n“The S&P 500 reached a high on Friday of 4233.45, narrowly eclipsing the all-time high close of 4232.60 from May 7th.\nUnfortunately for the bulls, selling in the final few minutes ruined the breakout attempt. This false breakout, ever so slight, could be quite ominous for next week and there’s one MAJOR reason why. Inflation data.\nThat May 7th all-time high came just days before the shocking April CPI data was released on May 12th. Now here we are back at the high again.\nAs the late Yogi Berra might say, “it’s deja vu all over again!” I don’t believe inflation to be a problem, but just the possibility of it could trigger scary headlines and encourage selling in the week ahead.”\n – Tom Bowley, Stockcharts\n\nThe chart below shows the differential between the annual rates of change of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI.) It should not be surprising that when PPI surges well ahead of CPI, equity markets tend to run into problems.Such is because this shows producers are unable to pass the inflation along to their customers. Consequently, this leads to reduced earnings and a repricing of risk assets.\n\nTom goes on to state inflation will not be a problem longer-term correctly. However, in the near term, the surge in inflation will weigh on outlooks, creating corrective actions.\nThe Problem With Technicals\nI want to reiterate a point from the most recent newsletter:\n\nThe biggest problem is that technical indicators do not distinguish between a consolidation, a correction, or an outright bear market.\n As such, if you ignore the signals as they occur, by the time you realize it’s a deep correction, it is too late to do much about it.\nTherefore, we must treat each signal with the same respect and adjust risk accordingly. The opportunity costs of doing so are minimal.\n\nIf we reduce risk and the market continues to rise, we can increase risk exposures. Yes, we sacrifice some short-term performance. However, if we reduce risk and the market declines sharply, we not only protect capital during the decline but have the liquidity to deploy at lower price levels.\nSuch is the problem with“buy and hold” strategies. Yes, you will perform in line with the market, but given that you didn’t “sell high,” there is no cash available with which to “buy low” in the future.\nWith that stated, here is the most significant problem of technical analysis.All of the warnings noted above suggest there is a risk of a correction in the near term. However, technical analysis does not differentiate between a 5% pullback, a 10% correction, or a“bear market.”\nYou will only find that out once it begins, and such is why risk management is essential.\n\n“Risk management is much like driving a car. If there is a blind spot ahead, and you don’t tap on the brakes to control your speed, you are unlikely to avoid the hazard ahead.\nYes, tapping on the brakes to provide more control over the car will slow your arrival time to your destination. However, being late is a much better option than not getting there at all.”\n\nJust A Warning\nAgain, I am not implying, suggesting, or stating that such signals mean going 100% to cash. What I am suggesting is that when “sell signals” are given, that is the time when individuals should perform some essential portfolio risk management such as:\n\nTrim back winning positions to original portfolio weights:Investment Rule: Let Winners Run\nSell positions that simply are not working (if the position was not working in a rising market, it likely won’t in a declining market.)Investment Rule: Cut Losers Short\nHold the cash raised from these activities until the next buying opportunity occurs.Investment Rule: Buy Low\n\nAs stated, there is minimal risk in “risk management.” In the long term, the results of avoiding periods of severe capital loss will outweigh missed short-term gains.\nWhile I agree you can not“time the markets,”you can “manage risk” to improve your long-term outcomes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":36,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/117776942"}