cruzer
2021-06-03
Longterm I guess
Is Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票是否被高估？</blockquote>
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Despite massive earnings beats in both its Q1 holiday quarter and Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The thesis from my last article on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）的多头不得不感到沮丧。尽管第一季度假期季度和第二季度1月至3月季度的盈利均大幅超出预期，但股价却毫无进展。我上一篇关于苹果的文章中的论点是，COVID-19封锁、政府施舍和5G的推出都最终将苹果的需求拉入了2021财年，这得到了New Street分析师的支持，他们现在也做出了同样的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e41696d20058f8ca97f59715bca52b8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> New Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modeling<i>iPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.</i>Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been tracking iPhone sales in China and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.</p><p><blockquote>新街没有预言天要塌下来，我也没有。他们只是在做模特<i>iPhone出货量在1.8亿至2亿部之间，而市场普遍预期为2.34亿部。</i>这听起来像是一种极端的观点吗？我不这么认为，特别是因为SA撰稿人Paulo Santos一直在跟踪iPhone在中国的销售情况，并看到从白热化的开局到今年年初明显放缓。我认为iPad和Mac的类似放缓还需要几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL目前的估值是多少？有意义吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> From the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.</p><p><blockquote>从我最近两篇文章收到的评论来看，多头一定认为我讨厌苹果，别有用心。这与事实相去甚远。我过去曾多次直接持有苹果，并且仍然通过我持有的Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)持有该公司的大量股份。因此，我无论如何都不反对它，我只是按照我所看到的来称呼它——而且我认为估值非常过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242125db79bcaf3f8697bf4466c3f0c8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"464\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain <b>significantly elevated</b>- 50% or more - from their historic norms.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的价格/收益、价格/销售额和价格/自由现金流仍然保持不变<b>显著升高</b>-50%或更多-从他们的历史规范。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2397347f029ba2ba682fa1398109d5e7\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个关键问题，因为苹果的预期收入增长和盈利预期已经很低，并且预测增长微乎其微。按照这些速度，几乎所有的盈利增长都将来自股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> But these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.</p><p><blockquote>但这些前瞻性预测假设苹果将在2022财年再次重复创纪录的一年。我认为这种情况发生的可能性很小。相反，我预计2014财年至2016财年的情况类似，营业利润从2014财年至2015财年大幅增长，然后在2016财年适度下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果2021财年可能会在很长一段时间内达到销售和盈利峰值</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.</p><p><blockquote>自2016年以来，苹果推出了许多成功的新产品：苹果手表、AirPods和苹果电视，以及许多新版本的Mac、iPhone和iPad，以及令人印象深刻的服务增长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管取得了所有这些成功，苹果的营业收入在2015年达到顶峰，直到在过去12个月内打破了之前的峰值。从2015年到2020年，在股票回购和TCJA企业所得税削减的大力帮助下，苹果的每股收益增长了约7%。（如果没有此次减税，2020年每股收益将约为2.88美元，而不是3.28美元，这意味着每股收益增长率约为4.5%。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a878730fc1ed62d2dc0166d9aa16c21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.</p><p><blockquote>最终，我相信苹果最近火爆的销售表现不会重演，也不应该像华尔街分析师所模拟的那样被视为新的运行率。我认为iPad的销量就是一个例证。在过去的几年里，销量一直保持稳定，直到去年爆炸式增长57%，并在今年年初继续保持同样的势头。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11c5c505d2f2c147fc7ee546576a5945\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Did iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>iPads突然变得如此受欢迎吗？或者只是有很多在家工作的父母想给他们的孩子买iPads？我选后者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion - Apple is still a Sell</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论——苹果仍值得卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Wall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师不失时机地提高了明年的盈利预期，我认为这主要是对当前业绩的推断。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Admittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，我不像大多数人那样看好5G超级周期。我相信创新者和早期采用者会急于升级，但大多数大众市场将保持正常的升级节奏，并继续延长。我认为iPhone是自身成功的受害者——最近的iPhones都很好，升级到更新的手机不太引人注目，因为4G对大多数人来说“足够好”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5047edb2490f12fb4259f905c7fbac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Apple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果2019年的收入为2.97美元。他们今年前两个季度的收入已经为3.08美元，目前预计整个财年的收入为5.16美元。即使服务业有所增长，我也不认为他们在下一财年会重复这种表现，并预计每股收益将接近4-4.50美元，远低于目前预期的5.30美元。这将使市盈率回到30以上，并出现负增长率。如果发生这种情况，股价可能会重新测试100美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. Valuation always matters.</p><p><blockquote>苹果对我来说仍然是个卖点。这是一家伟大的公司，但定价太高了。估值总是很重要的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票是否被高估？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票是否被高估？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-03 15:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Despite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.</li> <li>I believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.</li> <li>Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated to historical levels.</li> <li>I have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bff81a333ee2ce5596e83df474ea7f56\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"511\"><span>Photo by PeskyMonkey/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管第二季度盈利预期令人震惊，但苹果股价却出现逆转，表现逊于大盘。</li><li>我认为华尔街对苹果2022财年的预期过高，可能是近期疲软的原因之一。</li><li>苹果的价格/收益、价格/销售额和价格/自由现金流仍显着高于历史水平。</li><li>我严重怀疑iPhone、iPad和Mac的销售能否在明年继续目前的火爆销售速度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：PeskyMonkey/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) bulls have to be frustrated. Despite massive earnings beats in both its Q1 holiday quarter and Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The thesis from my last article on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）的多头不得不感到沮丧。尽管第一季度假期季度和第二季度1月至3月季度的盈利均大幅超出预期，但股价却毫无进展。我上一篇关于苹果的文章中的论点是，COVID-19封锁、政府施舍和5G的推出都最终将苹果的需求拉入了2021财年，这得到了New Street分析师的支持，他们现在也做出了同样的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e41696d20058f8ca97f59715bca52b8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> New Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modeling<i>iPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.</i>Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been tracking iPhone sales in China and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.</p><p><blockquote>新街没有预言天要塌下来，我也没有。他们只是在做模特<i>iPhone出货量在1.8亿至2亿部之间，而市场普遍预期为2.34亿部。</i>这听起来像是一种极端的观点吗？我不这么认为，特别是因为SA撰稿人Paulo Santos一直在跟踪iPhone在中国的销售情况，并看到从白热化的开局到今年年初明显放缓。我认为iPad和Mac的类似放缓还需要几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL目前的估值是多少？有意义吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> From the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.</p><p><blockquote>从我最近两篇文章收到的评论来看，多头一定认为我讨厌苹果，别有用心。这与事实相去甚远。我过去曾多次直接持有苹果，并且仍然通过我持有的Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)持有该公司的大量股份。因此，我无论如何都不反对它，我只是按照我所看到的来称呼它——而且我认为估值非常过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242125db79bcaf3f8697bf4466c3f0c8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"464\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain <b>significantly elevated</b>- 50% or more - from their historic norms.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的价格/收益、价格/销售额和价格/自由现金流仍然保持不变<b>显著升高</b>-50%或更多-从他们的历史规范。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2397347f029ba2ba682fa1398109d5e7\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个关键问题，因为苹果的预期收入增长和盈利预期已经很低，并且预测增长微乎其微。按照这些速度，几乎所有的盈利增长都将来自股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> But these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.</p><p><blockquote>但这些前瞻性预测假设苹果将在2022财年再次重复创纪录的一年。我认为这种情况发生的可能性很小。相反，我预计2014财年至2016财年的情况类似，营业利润从2014财年至2015财年大幅增长，然后在2016财年适度下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果2021财年可能会在很长一段时间内达到销售和盈利峰值</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.</p><p><blockquote>自2016年以来，苹果推出了许多成功的新产品：苹果手表、AirPods和苹果电视，以及许多新版本的Mac、iPhone和iPad，以及令人印象深刻的服务增长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管取得了所有这些成功，苹果的营业收入在2015年达到顶峰，直到在过去12个月内打破了之前的峰值。从2015年到2020年，在股票回购和TCJA企业所得税削减的大力帮助下，苹果的每股收益增长了约7%。（如果没有此次减税，2020年每股收益将约为2.88美元，而不是3.28美元，这意味着每股收益增长率约为4.5%。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a878730fc1ed62d2dc0166d9aa16c21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.</p><p><blockquote>最终，我相信苹果最近火爆的销售表现不会重演，也不应该像华尔街分析师所模拟的那样被视为新的运行率。我认为iPad的销量就是一个例证。在过去的几年里，销量一直保持稳定，直到去年爆炸式增长57%，并在今年年初继续保持同样的势头。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11c5c505d2f2c147fc7ee546576a5945\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Did iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>iPads突然变得如此受欢迎吗？或者只是有很多在家工作的父母想给他们的孩子买iPads？我选后者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion - Apple is still a Sell</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论——苹果仍值得卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Wall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师不失时机地提高了明年的盈利预期，我认为这主要是对当前业绩的推断。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Admittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，我不像大多数人那样看好5G超级周期。我相信创新者和早期采用者会急于升级，但大多数大众市场将保持正常的升级节奏，并继续延长。我认为iPhone是自身成功的受害者——最近的iPhones都很好，升级到更新的手机不太引人注目，因为4G对大多数人来说“足够好”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5047edb2490f12fb4259f905c7fbac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Apple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果2019年的收入为2.97美元。他们今年前两个季度的收入已经为3.08美元，目前预计整个财年的收入为5.16美元。即使服务业有所增长，我也不认为他们在下一财年会重复这种表现，并预计每股收益将接近4-4.50美元，远低于目前预期的5.30美元。这将使市盈率回到30以上，并出现负增长率。如果发生这种情况，股价可能会重新测试100美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. Valuation always matters.</p><p><blockquote>苹果对我来说仍然是个卖点。这是一家伟大的公司，但定价太高了。估值总是很重要的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432646-apple-stock-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432646-apple-stock-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160407593","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.\nI believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.\nApple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated to historical levels.\nI have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.\n\nPhoto by PeskyMonkey/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nApple (AAPL) bulls have to be frustrated. Despite massive earnings beats in both its Q1 holiday quarter and Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The thesis from my last article on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.\n\nNew Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modelingiPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been tracking iPhone sales in China and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.\nWhat is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?\nFrom the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.\nData by YCharts\nApple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated- 50% or more - from their historic norms.\n\nThis is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.\nBut these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.\nApple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time\nSince 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.\nYet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)\n\nUltimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.\n\nDid iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.\nConclusion - Apple is still a Sell\nWall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.\nAdmittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.\n\nApple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.\nApple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. Valuation always matters.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1193,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/118078324"}
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