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2021-06-03
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TSMC: Expanding Its Foundry Market Leadership<blockquote>台积电：扩大晶圆代工市场领导地位</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":118636247,"tweetId":"118636247","gmtCreate":1622729844689,"gmtModify":1631892263044,"author":{"id":3578099872805879,"idStr":"3578099872805879","authorId":3578099872805879,"authorIdStr":"3578099872805879","name":"33c3eb1","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":13,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Buy? </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Buy? </p></body></html>","text":"Buy?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118636247","repostId":1160565063,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160565063","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622729043,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160565063?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-03 22:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"TSMC: Expanding Its Foundry Market Leadership<blockquote>台积电：扩大晶圆代工市场领导地位</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160565063","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTSMC’s growth by end market is expected to be strong across the board this year especially ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>TSMC’s growth by end market is expected to be strong across the board this year especially in HPC and automotive markets due to the resumption in auto production and structural.</li> <li>It's undergoing aggressive capacity expansion plans after raising capex by over 60% and committing $100 bln over the next 3 years.</li> <li>The company continues to lead with a solid technological advantage as it ramps up its 5nm production followed by 4nm and 3nm scheduled for mass production next year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c699eaada1188876056b2745946a9b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于汽车生产和结构的恢复，预计台积电今年终端市场的增长将全面强劲，尤其是在高性能计算和汽车市场。</li><li>在将资本支出提高60%以上并承诺在未来3年内投资1000亿美元后，该公司正在实施积极的产能扩张计划。</li><li>该公司继续以坚实的技术优势领先，提高了5纳米产量，随后4纳米和3纳米计划于明年量产。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) is a pioneer of the pure-play foundry business model with an exclusive focus on manufacturing customers’ products. Backed by a robust demand environment and technological leadership with advanced nodes, TSMC’s market share increased to 56% in 2020 from 53% in the previous year. The company is anticipated to register another strong year of growth as strong demand rollover providing a tailwind and the structural drivers leading to an increase in the underlying semiconductor demand for HPC, IoT, 5G and automotive fueling strong demand from the multi-year megatrends.</p><p><blockquote>台积电公司(TSM)是纯代工商业模式的先驱，专注于制造客户的产品。在强劲的需求环境和先进节点的技术领先地位的支持下，台积电的市场份额从上一年的53%增长到2020年的56%。由于强劲的需求展期提供了推动力，结构性驱动因素导致HPC、物联网、5G和汽车的潜在半导体需求增加，推动了多年大趋势的强劲需求，预计该公司将迎来又一个强劲增长的一年。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC’s leadership position revolves around its competitive strengths from the scale as the largest pure-play foundry by capacity. The company is scaling up even further by committing an aggressive expansion plan increasing capex potentially up to 63% in 2020 and $100 bln over the next three years. Furthermore, as a technology leader, the company is continuously developing more advanced process technologies to maintain its lead. Its process technology roadmap indicates that it well-positioned to solidify this lead by targeting 3nm and 4nm nodes for mass production next year followed by 2nm further down the line.</p><p><blockquote>台积电的领导地位源于其作为产能最大的纯晶圆代工厂的竞争优势。该公司正在通过实施积极的扩张计划进一步扩大规模，到2020年资本支出可能增加63%，并在未来三年内增加1000亿美元。此外，作为技术领导者，该公司正在不断开发更先进的工艺技术以保持其领先地位。其工艺技术路线图表明，该公司已做好准备，可以通过明年大规模生产的3纳米和4纳米节点以及随后的2纳米节点来巩固这一领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce2a9da08d637f44171858f9f7587f0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: TSMC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：台积电</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Strong End Market Growth Across the Board Especially in HPC and Automotive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终端市场全面强劲增长，尤其是在高性能计算和汽车领域</b></blockquote></p><p> TSMC’s impressive growth in 2020 was particularly strong across the HPC, IoT and smartphone end markets registering the highest growth rate among all end markets as depicted in the chart below. This is significant as these three end markets make up the largest segments by revenues with a combined contribution of 89%.</p><p><blockquote>台积电2020年在高性能计算、物联网和智能手机终端市场的强劲增长尤其强劲，在所有终端市场中增长率最高，如下图所示。这一点意义重大，因为这三个终端市场构成了收入最大的细分市场，合计贡献达89%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23cabf4b82975da57c73ceec6d99ae4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: TSMC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：台积电</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Although the smartphone platform is the largest segment, the end market which exhibited the highest growth was the HPC platform. Fueled by the work and study from home shift as well as rapid 5G deployment, HPC saw unit shipments grew by 11% which includes chips for PCs, tablets, game consoles, servers, and base stations. Looking ahead, management expects the robust demand to roll over into 2021 as structural factors spur demand for products at the leading edge including CPU, GPU, networking, FPGA, AI-accelerated video gaming, etc. For example, the proliferation of AI and machine learning applications across a broad range of industries with continuous R&D from tech giants spurring demand for accelerators to handle inferencing and training workloads leading to a CAGR of 42.2% to 2027 for the AI market. Additionally, the ongoing cloud migration by enterprises and scaling of data centers by leading cloud service provider fueling the cloud computing market with a CAGR of 17.5%. Other drivers include 5G deployment as well as next-generation gaming all requiring higher performance and power-efficient chips. All of these factors support the long-term growth of the HPC platform which TSMC believes can overtake the smartphone platform to become the most significant end market in the future.</p><p><blockquote>虽然智能手机平台是最大的细分市场，但增长最快的终端市场是HPC平台。在在家工作和学习以及5G快速部署的推动下，HPC saw单元出货量增长了11%，其中包括用于PC、平板电脑、游戏机、服务器和基站的芯片。展望未来，管理层预计强劲的需求将延续至2021年，因为结构性因素刺激了对领先产品的需求，包括CPU、GPU、网络、FPGA、人工智能加速视频游戏等。例如，随着科技巨头的持续研发，人工智能和机器学习应用在各行各业的激增，刺激了对加速器处理推理和训练工作负载的需求，导致人工智能市场到2027年的复合年增长率为42.2%。此外，企业正在进行的云迁移和领先的云服务提供商对数据中心的扩展推动了云计算市场的复合年增长率为17.5%。其他驱动因素包括5G部署以及下一代游戏，所有这些都需要更高性能和高能效的芯片。所有这些因素都支持HPC平台的长期增长，台积电相信HPC平台可以超越智能手机平台，成为未来最重要的终端市场。</blockquote></p><p> Besides HPC, the ongoing automotive chip shortage is another platform in which the company expects stronger growth this year. In 2020, the segment contracted in line with the decline in global vehicle sales by 14% as consumer confidence weakened and auto manufacturers halted production. As production resumes with car sales expected to rebound in the low teens, we expect the segment to grow in line with the industry recovery. Additionally, rising semiconductor content driven by EV which could see nearly10 times greater content per vehicle than a conventional combustion vehicle and ADAS fueling demand for sensors, analog and power ICs is a structural driver for TSMC.</p><p><blockquote>除了HPC之外，持续的汽车芯片短缺是该公司预计今年增长更强劲的另一个平台。2020年，由于消费者信心减弱和汽车制造商停产，全球汽车销量下降14%，该细分市场出现收缩。随着生产恢复，汽车销量预计将在十几岁左右反弹，我们预计该细分市场将随着行业复苏而增长。此外，电动汽车推动的半导体含量不断上升，每辆车的半导体含量可能比传统燃油汽车高出近10倍，ADAS刺激了对传感器、模拟和功率IC的需求，这是台积电的结构性驱动因素。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, even more impressive about TSMC’s 2020 growth is the fact that the company lost a key contribution from the embargoed Huawei’s HiSilicon (12.8% of revenues) but still managed to register strong smartphone platform growth. Despite the modest global unit shipments decline of 9%, the growth in the platform is driven by 5G adoption, improved performance, longer battery life and increasing complexity of features such as biosensors and more AI features. These long-term factors support the company’s outlook for high single-digit growth in 2021 and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>此外，台积电2020年的增长更令人印象深刻的是，该公司失去了被禁运的华为海思的关键贡献（占收入的12.8%），但仍设法实现了强劲的智能手机平台增长。尽管全球单位出货量小幅下降9%，但该平台的增长是由5G的采用、性能的提高、电池寿命的延长以及生物传感器和更多人工智能功能等功能复杂性的增加推动的。这些长期因素支持该公司在2021年及以后实现高个位数增长的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45123609324056b25e0de8e36bf86f46\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source:Toms Hardware, The Information Network</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Toms Hardware，The Information Network</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Aggressive Capacity Expansion Plans and Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>积极的产能扩张计划和投资</b></blockquote></p><p> In terms of capacity expansion, TSMC has upped its game in 2021 by increasing its capex by potentially 63% more than last year to $28 bln. The company has announced that around 80% of the budgeted capex will be allocated to expand capacity for the advanced process technologies below 7nm with the remainder for advanced packaging and specialty technologies. Additionally, it is also committing $100 bln over the next 3 years to increase capacity and support R&D towards advanced processes.</p><p><blockquote>在产能扩张方面，台积电在2021年加大了力度，资本支出可能比去年增加63%，达到280亿美元。该公司宣布，约80%的预算资本支出将用于扩大7纳米以下先进工艺技术的产能，其余用于先进封装和特种技术。此外，它还承诺在未来3年内投入1000亿美元来提高产能并支持研发先进工艺。</blockquote></p><p> Previously, TSMC also announced its plan to expand in the US with a $12 bln fab in Arizona capable of producing 5nm chips. The 12-inch fab in Phoenix is relatively modest with a planned output of 20,000 with volume production only expected in 2024. Though, it has also been reported that TSMC might further increase the capacity and equipment capabilities which is a strong possibility with the robust demand environment and the company has also indicated that the location allows it to expand capacity if desired.</p><p><blockquote>此前，台积电还宣布计划在美国扩张，在亚利桑那州投资120亿美元建造一座能够生产5纳米芯片的晶圆厂。凤凰城的12英寸晶圆厂规模相对较小，计划产量为20,000台，预计要到2024年才能量产。不过，也有报道称，台积电可能会进一步增加产能和设备能力，在强劲的需求环境下，这是一个很大的可能性，而且该公司还表示，如果需要，该地点允许其扩大产能。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/326c261509a8f27ac5d2dfd0cd823458\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"618\"><span>Source:EENewsEurope,Techspot</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：EENewsEurope、Techspot</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In comparison with other larger spenders Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)and Samsung, TSMC’s planned investment commitment of $100 bln for foundry expansion is the most significant. In March, Intel announced it's planned a $20 bln initialinvestmentin Arizona for the construction of two fabs to directly compete with TSMC but a lot more is needed to stand a chance at challenging TSMC’s dominance. On the other hand, Samsung’s plannedinvestmentsof $116 bln are larger but spread across a longer period of 10 years compared to just 3 for TSMC.</p><p><blockquote>与其他支出较大的英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）和三星相比，台积电计划投资1000亿美元用于代工扩张的承诺是最重要的。今年3月，英特尔宣布计划在亚利桑那州投资200亿美元建设两座晶圆厂，与台积电直接竞争，但还需要更多资金才能有机会挑战台积电的主导地位。另一方面，三星计划的1160亿美元投资规模更大，但期限更长，为10年，而台积电仅为3年。</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody></tbody> </table> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a96afbf56db7d1f4ecaf334f01866dc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"><span>Source:Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody></tbody></table><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>TSMC’s Superior Process Technology and Roadmap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>台积电优越的制程技术与路线图</b></blockquote></p><p> Backed by its strong investment commitment, TSMC is able to reap the benefits from its strength as a technological leader in semiconductor manufacturing. Shrinking the size of transistors is becoming more challenging with prohibitive costs but a key feature for increasing chip density allowing continued performance improvements and energy efficiency. Chips at the leading edge nodes (below 10nm) are critical to achieve this and its share of demand would only grow larger to support advanced technologies accounting for nearly one third of capacity in 3 years.</p><p><blockquote>在其强大的投资承诺的支持下，台积电能够从其作为半导体制造技术领导者的实力中获益。由于成本过高，缩小晶体管的尺寸变得越来越具有挑战性，但这是增加芯片密度的关键特征，可以持续提高性能和能效。前沿节点（10纳米以下）的芯片对于实现这一目标至关重要，其需求份额只会越来越大，以支持先进技术，在3年内占产能的近三分之一。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e784ad457fc66c73ca376c7af1981e\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"427\"><span>Source:IC Insights</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IC Insights</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This is where TSMC shines with its leadership owing to its focus on continuously developing more advanced process technologies. While the company only accounts for 40% to 65% of revenues for the less sophisticated 28-65nm chips, it dominates the market for most advanced nodes with making up 90% of chips below 10nm. We expect it to maintain its leadership at the advanced nodes as other pureplay competitors struggle with developing their processes.</p><p><blockquote>这是台积电因专注于不断开发更先进的制程技术而发挥领导作用的地方。虽然该公司仅占不太复杂的28-65纳米芯片收入的40%至65%，但它在大多数先进节点市场占据主导地位，占10纳米以下芯片的90%。我们预计，随着其他纯竞争对手努力开发其流程，它将保持在高级节点的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab154a4af28b364c0c3dc9e281683ecd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\"><span>Source:Financial Times</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：金融时报</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of the TSMC’s technology roadmap, the company’s 5nm process is already in the second year of volume production and continues to be ramped up with strong demand from smartphone and HPC applications. Following 5nm, the company is moving to 4nm and targeting volume production by next year. Also, the company has scheduled the 3nm for volume production in the second half of 2022. Based on a FinFET transistor structure, it is believed that its 3nm can provide 70% logic density gain, boosting performance up to 15% and cutting power consumption by 30%. The transistor size in a 3nm node is just 1/20,000th of a human hair. At the same time, the company is developing its GAAFET-based 2nm node with production expected in its Taiwanese fabs across Hsinchu and Baoshan.</p><p><blockquote>就台积电的技术路线图而言，该公司的5nm工艺已经进入量产的第二年，并随着智能手机和HPC应用的强劲需求而继续提升。继5纳米之后，该公司正在转向4纳米，目标是明年量产。此外，该公司还计划在2022年下半年量产3nm。基于FinFET晶体管结构，据信其3nm可以提供70%的逻辑密度增益，将性能提升高达15%，功耗降低30%。3nm节点中的晶体管尺寸仅为人类头发丝的1/20,000。与此同时，该公司正在开发基于GAAFET的2纳米节点，预计将在其位于新竹和宝山的台湾晶圆厂生产。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Compared to leading competitors, Samsung’s roadmap is also quite similar to TSMC as it plans to mass produce 3nm chips in 2022 with 2nm possibly also indevelopmentwith IBM(NYSE:IBM)but produced by Samsung. More recently, TSMC has announced a breakthrough in thedevelopmentof 1nm. Whereas for Intel, its Arizona fab is only indicated to produce 7nm technologies but only when it is completed in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>与主要竞争对手相比，三星的路线图也与台积电非常相似，因为它计划在2022年大规模生产3纳米芯片，其中2纳米芯片可能也在与IBM（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IBM）合作开发，但由三星生产。最近，台积电宣布在1纳米开发方面取得突破。而对于英特尔来说，其亚利桑那州工厂仅表示将生产7纳米技术，但前提是在2024年竣工。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cce4edae659b7c5424284f348286586\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>Source:IC Insights</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IC Insights</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, TSMC’s investment plans allow it to derive a distinct advantage owing to its focus on advanced nodes despite the hefty costs. Among pure-play foundries, the company has the highest return on capital employed at 27.3% versus the industry average of 13.8%.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，尽管成本高昂，但台积电的投资计划使其能够获得明显的优势，因为它专注于先进节点。在纯代工厂中，该公司的资本回报率最高，为27.3%，而行业平均水平为13.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Return on Capital Employed</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>已动用资本回报率</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>TSMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>27.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>UMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>UMC</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>11.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>11.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>SMICOTCQX:SMICY</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>SMICOTCQX：SMICY</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>3.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>3.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <i>Source:WSJ</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：华尔街日报</i></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, TSMC also benefits from favourable pricing with a rising wafer pricing trend in line with its advanced node migration. As the only pure-play foundry with 7nm and 5nm in 2020, its wafer pricing increased by 6.8% while other pureplay foundries had flattish wafer pricing trends. As TSMC transitions to more advanced nodes, pricing is expected to trend upwards while its competitors’ prices remain relatively flat but couldriseby up around 20% this year due to tight capacity.</p><p><blockquote>此外，台积电还受益于有利的定价，晶圆价格随着其先进节点迁移而上涨。作为2020年唯一一家拥有7纳米和5纳米的纯晶圆代工厂，其晶圆定价上涨了6.8%，而其他纯晶圆代工厂的晶圆定价趋势平淡。随着台积电向更先进的节点过渡，定价预计将呈上升趋势，而其竞争对手的价格保持相对平稳，但由于产能紧张，今年可能会上涨20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d72237f327bae332b07dc3bbd226641a\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"326\"><span>Source:IC Insights</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IC Insights</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Besides advanced nodes, the company’s advantage due to its scale is apparent as evident from its superior profitability compared to rivals. Its gross margins of 53.21% and net margins of 38.86% triumphs UMC and SMIC. However, data for Global Foundries could not be obtained as it is a private company.</p><p><blockquote>除了先进的节点之外，该公司的规模优势也很明显，与竞争对手相比，其卓越的盈利能力也很明显。其毛利率为53.21%，净利润率为38.86%，击败了联电和中芯国际。然而，由于Global Foundries是一家私营公司，因此无法获得其数据。</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Revenues ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>收入（十亿美元）</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>毛利率</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Net Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>净利润率</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>TSMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$47.95</p><p><blockquote><td>$47.95</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>53.21%</p><p><blockquote><td>53.21%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>38.86%</p><p><blockquote><td>38.86%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>UMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>UMC</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$6.3</p><p><blockquote><td>$6.3</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>23.88%</p><p><blockquote><td>23.88%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>20.59%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.59%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>SMIC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>中芯国际</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$3.91</p><p><blockquote><td>$3.91</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>22.83%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.83%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>17.87%</p><p><blockquote><td>17.87%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Seeking Alpha, Investing.com, Macrotrends</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Seeking Alpha、Investing.com、Macrotrends</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Due to the robust foundry market, TSMC’s revenue grew 33% in 2020 with a 5-year average growth rate of 13.7%. Its average gross margins and net margins are 49.7% and 35% respectively.</p><p><blockquote>由于晶圆代工市场强劲，台积电2020年收入增长33%，5年平均增长率为13.7%。其平均毛利率和净利润率分别为49.7%和35%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb481e40dd284b4be697764012599660\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: TSMC, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：台积电、卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company has a strong cash flow generation profile with a 5-year average of 21%. However, due to the significant rise in guided capex from 2021 onwards, the company’s margins are expected to dip but recover as it expands aggressively.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有强劲的现金流生成状况，5年平均为21%。然而，由于从2021年起指导资本支出大幅上升，该公司的利润率预计将下降，但随着其积极扩张而恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef99c8c626d03cd5796d38088510e291\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: TSMC, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：台积电、卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Owing to its immense scale and technology leadership, the company has managed to solidify its leadership by growing its market share over the past 5 years to 56% in 2020. As the company scales up capacity and advanced nodes 5nm this year, we anticipate further market share gains even beyond 2021.</p><p><blockquote>由于其巨大的规模和技术领先地位，该公司在过去5年中将其市场份额提高到2020年的56%，从而巩固了其领导地位。随着该公司今年扩大产能和先进节点5纳米，我们预计市场份额甚至在2021年之后将进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58cebb1fc453c5861aac81712d01607\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The global foundry market is expected to grow at a 11% CAGR according to estimates from TrendForce. We expect TSMC to outpace this growth rate by gaining market share due to its scale and technological advantages as highlighted above. Overall, we see TSMC growing nearly 15% through 2023 which is in line with management guidance of 10 to 15% CAGR long term.</p><p><blockquote>根据TrendForce的估计，全球代工市场预计将以11%的CAGR增长。我们预计，由于上述规模和技术优势，台积电将通过获得市场份额来超越这一增长率。总体而言，我们预计台积电到2023年将增长近15%，这符合管理层长期复合年增长率10%至15%的指导。</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>TSMC Revenue Projection</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>台积电营收预测</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Foundry Market</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>代工市场</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>78,921</p><p><blockquote><td>78,921</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>87,602</p><p><blockquote><td>87,602</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>97,239</p><p><blockquote><td>97,239</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>107,935</p><p><blockquote><td>107,935</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>TSMC Foundry Revenues</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电代工收入</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>44,205</p><p><blockquote><td>44,205</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>50,809</p><p><blockquote><td>50,809</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>58,343</p><p><blockquote><td>58,343</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>66,920</p><p><blockquote><td>66,920</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>TSMC Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电成长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>14.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>14.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Statista, TrendForce, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、TrendForce、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> The industry average EV/EBITDA of the pure-play foundry market is 10.53x excluding Samsung which is a tech conglomerate.</p><p><blockquote>纯代工市场的行业平均EV/EBITDA为10.53倍，不包括科技集团三星。</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>TSMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>15.64</p><p><blockquote><td>15.64</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>UMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>UMC</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>8.89</p><p><blockquote><td>8.89</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>SMIC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>中芯国际</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>7.07</p><p><blockquote><td>7.07</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><b>Average</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>均值</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>10.53</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>10.53</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Seeking Alpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</i></blockquote></p><p> Based on a discount rate of 7.3% (company’s WACC), our model shows an upside of 15.2%.</p><p><blockquote>基于7.3%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为15.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cec106cd5858b583064db2d09cd133b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite all the plans by Samsung and Intel, TSMC remains too big to beat as a pure-play foundry leader with growing market share owing to its superior technology process and scale. In 2020, the company saw robust growth across most end market platforms despite the trade embargo on Huawei. Robust demand is expected to roll over into 2021 across all major end markets especially fueled by the resumption of auto production and structural trend of HPC and 5G. To capitalize on the multi-year megatrends, the company has not only stepped up its capex budget for the year potentially up 63% but also a long-term 3-year $100 bln investment commitment to expand capacity for the advanced nodes. This highlights its commitment towards implementing its roadmap for the node migration towards 4nm and 3nm next year followed by 2nm further into the future. These factors cumulatively solidify its market leadership which could lead to further market share gains. Overall, we rate the company as a<i>Buy</i>with a target price of<i>$126.32.</i></p><p><blockquote>尽管三星和英特尔制定了所有计划，但台积电作为纯粹的代工领导者，由于其卓越的技术工艺和规模，市场份额不断增长，其规模仍然太大，无法被击败。2020年，尽管对华为实施贸易禁运，该公司在大多数终端市场平台上都实现了强劲增长。预计所有主要终端市场的强劲需求将延续到2021年，特别是在汽车生产恢复以及HPC和5G的结构性趋势的推动下。为了利用多年大趋势，该公司不仅将今年的资本支出预算提高了63%，还做出了3年1000亿美元的长期投资承诺，以扩大高级节点的容量。这凸显了其致力于实施明年节点迁移到4纳米和3纳米以及未来2纳米的路线图。这些因素累积起来巩固了其市场领导地位，从而可能进一步提高市场份额。总体而言，我们将该公司评为<i>购买</i>目标价为<i>$126.32.</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSMC: Expanding Its Foundry Market Leadership<blockquote>台积电：扩大晶圆代工市场领导地位</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSMC: Expanding Its Foundry Market Leadership<blockquote>台积电：扩大晶圆代工市场领导地位</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-03 22:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>TSMC’s growth by end market is expected to be strong across the board this year especially in HPC and automotive markets due to the resumption in auto production and structural.</li> <li>It's undergoing aggressive capacity expansion plans after raising capex by over 60% and committing $100 bln over the next 3 years.</li> <li>The company continues to lead with a solid technological advantage as it ramps up its 5nm production followed by 4nm and 3nm scheduled for mass production next year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c699eaada1188876056b2745946a9b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于汽车生产和结构的恢复，预计台积电今年终端市场的增长将全面强劲，尤其是在高性能计算和汽车市场。</li><li>在将资本支出提高60%以上并承诺在未来3年内投资1000亿美元后，该公司正在实施积极的产能扩张计划。</li><li>该公司继续以坚实的技术优势领先，提高了5纳米产量，随后4纳米和3纳米计划于明年量产。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) is a pioneer of the pure-play foundry business model with an exclusive focus on manufacturing customers’ products. Backed by a robust demand environment and technological leadership with advanced nodes, TSMC’s market share increased to 56% in 2020 from 53% in the previous year. The company is anticipated to register another strong year of growth as strong demand rollover providing a tailwind and the structural drivers leading to an increase in the underlying semiconductor demand for HPC, IoT, 5G and automotive fueling strong demand from the multi-year megatrends.</p><p><blockquote>台积电公司(TSM)是纯代工商业模式的先驱，专注于制造客户的产品。在强劲的需求环境和先进节点的技术领先地位的支持下，台积电的市场份额从上一年的53%增长到2020年的56%。由于强劲的需求展期提供了推动力，结构性驱动因素导致HPC、物联网、5G和汽车的潜在半导体需求增加，推动了多年大趋势的强劲需求，预计该公司将迎来又一个强劲增长的一年。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC’s leadership position revolves around its competitive strengths from the scale as the largest pure-play foundry by capacity. The company is scaling up even further by committing an aggressive expansion plan increasing capex potentially up to 63% in 2020 and $100 bln over the next three years. Furthermore, as a technology leader, the company is continuously developing more advanced process technologies to maintain its lead. Its process technology roadmap indicates that it well-positioned to solidify this lead by targeting 3nm and 4nm nodes for mass production next year followed by 2nm further down the line.</p><p><blockquote>台积电的领导地位源于其作为产能最大的纯晶圆代工厂的竞争优势。该公司正在通过实施积极的扩张计划进一步扩大规模，到2020年资本支出可能增加63%，并在未来三年内增加1000亿美元。此外，作为技术领导者，该公司正在不断开发更先进的工艺技术以保持其领先地位。其工艺技术路线图表明，该公司已做好准备，可以通过明年大规模生产的3纳米和4纳米节点以及随后的2纳米节点来巩固这一领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce2a9da08d637f44171858f9f7587f0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: TSMC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：台积电</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Strong End Market Growth Across the Board Especially in HPC and Automotive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终端市场全面强劲增长，尤其是在高性能计算和汽车领域</b></blockquote></p><p> TSMC’s impressive growth in 2020 was particularly strong across the HPC, IoT and smartphone end markets registering the highest growth rate among all end markets as depicted in the chart below. This is significant as these three end markets make up the largest segments by revenues with a combined contribution of 89%.</p><p><blockquote>台积电2020年在高性能计算、物联网和智能手机终端市场的强劲增长尤其强劲，在所有终端市场中增长率最高，如下图所示。这一点意义重大，因为这三个终端市场构成了收入最大的细分市场，合计贡献达89%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23cabf4b82975da57c73ceec6d99ae4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: TSMC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：台积电</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Although the smartphone platform is the largest segment, the end market which exhibited the highest growth was the HPC platform. Fueled by the work and study from home shift as well as rapid 5G deployment, HPC saw unit shipments grew by 11% which includes chips for PCs, tablets, game consoles, servers, and base stations. Looking ahead, management expects the robust demand to roll over into 2021 as structural factors spur demand for products at the leading edge including CPU, GPU, networking, FPGA, AI-accelerated video gaming, etc. For example, the proliferation of AI and machine learning applications across a broad range of industries with continuous R&D from tech giants spurring demand for accelerators to handle inferencing and training workloads leading to a CAGR of 42.2% to 2027 for the AI market. Additionally, the ongoing cloud migration by enterprises and scaling of data centers by leading cloud service provider fueling the cloud computing market with a CAGR of 17.5%. Other drivers include 5G deployment as well as next-generation gaming all requiring higher performance and power-efficient chips. All of these factors support the long-term growth of the HPC platform which TSMC believes can overtake the smartphone platform to become the most significant end market in the future.</p><p><blockquote>虽然智能手机平台是最大的细分市场，但增长最快的终端市场是HPC平台。在在家工作和学习以及5G快速部署的推动下，HPC saw单元出货量增长了11%，其中包括用于PC、平板电脑、游戏机、服务器和基站的芯片。展望未来，管理层预计强劲的需求将延续至2021年，因为结构性因素刺激了对领先产品的需求，包括CPU、GPU、网络、FPGA、人工智能加速视频游戏等。例如，随着科技巨头的持续研发，人工智能和机器学习应用在各行各业的激增，刺激了对加速器处理推理和训练工作负载的需求，导致人工智能市场到2027年的复合年增长率为42.2%。此外，企业正在进行的云迁移和领先的云服务提供商对数据中心的扩展推动了云计算市场的复合年增长率为17.5%。其他驱动因素包括5G部署以及下一代游戏，所有这些都需要更高性能和高能效的芯片。所有这些因素都支持HPC平台的长期增长，台积电相信HPC平台可以超越智能手机平台，成为未来最重要的终端市场。</blockquote></p><p> Besides HPC, the ongoing automotive chip shortage is another platform in which the company expects stronger growth this year. In 2020, the segment contracted in line with the decline in global vehicle sales by 14% as consumer confidence weakened and auto manufacturers halted production. As production resumes with car sales expected to rebound in the low teens, we expect the segment to grow in line with the industry recovery. Additionally, rising semiconductor content driven by EV which could see nearly10 times greater content per vehicle than a conventional combustion vehicle and ADAS fueling demand for sensors, analog and power ICs is a structural driver for TSMC.</p><p><blockquote>除了HPC之外，持续的汽车芯片短缺是该公司预计今年增长更强劲的另一个平台。2020年，由于消费者信心减弱和汽车制造商停产，全球汽车销量下降14%，该细分市场出现收缩。随着生产恢复，汽车销量预计将在十几岁左右反弹，我们预计该细分市场将随着行业复苏而增长。此外，电动汽车推动的半导体含量不断上升，每辆车的半导体含量可能比传统燃油汽车高出近10倍，ADAS刺激了对传感器、模拟和功率IC的需求，这是台积电的结构性驱动因素。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, even more impressive about TSMC’s 2020 growth is the fact that the company lost a key contribution from the embargoed Huawei’s HiSilicon (12.8% of revenues) but still managed to register strong smartphone platform growth. Despite the modest global unit shipments decline of 9%, the growth in the platform is driven by 5G adoption, improved performance, longer battery life and increasing complexity of features such as biosensors and more AI features. These long-term factors support the company’s outlook for high single-digit growth in 2021 and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>此外，台积电2020年的增长更令人印象深刻的是，该公司失去了被禁运的华为海思的关键贡献（占收入的12.8%），但仍设法实现了强劲的智能手机平台增长。尽管全球单位出货量小幅下降9%，但该平台的增长是由5G的采用、性能的提高、电池寿命的延长以及生物传感器和更多人工智能功能等功能复杂性的增加推动的。这些长期因素支持该公司在2021年及以后实现高个位数增长的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45123609324056b25e0de8e36bf86f46\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source:Toms Hardware, The Information Network</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Toms Hardware，The Information Network</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Aggressive Capacity Expansion Plans and Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>积极的产能扩张计划和投资</b></blockquote></p><p> In terms of capacity expansion, TSMC has upped its game in 2021 by increasing its capex by potentially 63% more than last year to $28 bln. The company has announced that around 80% of the budgeted capex will be allocated to expand capacity for the advanced process technologies below 7nm with the remainder for advanced packaging and specialty technologies. Additionally, it is also committing $100 bln over the next 3 years to increase capacity and support R&D towards advanced processes.</p><p><blockquote>在产能扩张方面，台积电在2021年加大了力度，资本支出可能比去年增加63%，达到280亿美元。该公司宣布，约80%的预算资本支出将用于扩大7纳米以下先进工艺技术的产能，其余用于先进封装和特种技术。此外，它还承诺在未来3年内投入1000亿美元来提高产能并支持研发先进工艺。</blockquote></p><p> Previously, TSMC also announced its plan to expand in the US with a $12 bln fab in Arizona capable of producing 5nm chips. The 12-inch fab in Phoenix is relatively modest with a planned output of 20,000 with volume production only expected in 2024. Though, it has also been reported that TSMC might further increase the capacity and equipment capabilities which is a strong possibility with the robust demand environment and the company has also indicated that the location allows it to expand capacity if desired.</p><p><blockquote>此前，台积电还宣布计划在美国扩张，在亚利桑那州投资120亿美元建造一座能够生产5纳米芯片的晶圆厂。凤凰城的12英寸晶圆厂规模相对较小，计划产量为20,000台，预计要到2024年才能量产。不过，也有报道称，台积电可能会进一步增加产能和设备能力，在强劲的需求环境下，这是一个很大的可能性，而且该公司还表示，如果需要，该地点允许其扩大产能。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/326c261509a8f27ac5d2dfd0cd823458\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"618\"><span>Source:EENewsEurope,Techspot</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：EENewsEurope、Techspot</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In comparison with other larger spenders Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)and Samsung, TSMC’s planned investment commitment of $100 bln for foundry expansion is the most significant. In March, Intel announced it's planned a $20 bln initialinvestmentin Arizona for the construction of two fabs to directly compete with TSMC but a lot more is needed to stand a chance at challenging TSMC’s dominance. On the other hand, Samsung’s plannedinvestmentsof $116 bln are larger but spread across a longer period of 10 years compared to just 3 for TSMC.</p><p><blockquote>与其他支出较大的英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）和三星相比，台积电计划投资1000亿美元用于代工扩张的承诺是最重要的。今年3月，英特尔宣布计划在亚利桑那州投资200亿美元建设两座晶圆厂，与台积电直接竞争，但还需要更多资金才能有机会挑战台积电的主导地位。另一方面，三星计划的1160亿美元投资规模更大，但期限更长，为10年，而台积电仅为3年。</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody></tbody> </table> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a96afbf56db7d1f4ecaf334f01866dc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"><span>Source:Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody></tbody></table><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>TSMC’s Superior Process Technology and Roadmap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>台积电优越的制程技术与路线图</b></blockquote></p><p> Backed by its strong investment commitment, TSMC is able to reap the benefits from its strength as a technological leader in semiconductor manufacturing. Shrinking the size of transistors is becoming more challenging with prohibitive costs but a key feature for increasing chip density allowing continued performance improvements and energy efficiency. Chips at the leading edge nodes (below 10nm) are critical to achieve this and its share of demand would only grow larger to support advanced technologies accounting for nearly one third of capacity in 3 years.</p><p><blockquote>在其强大的投资承诺的支持下，台积电能够从其作为半导体制造技术领导者的实力中获益。由于成本过高，缩小晶体管的尺寸变得越来越具有挑战性，但这是增加芯片密度的关键特征，可以持续提高性能和能效。前沿节点（10纳米以下）的芯片对于实现这一目标至关重要，其需求份额只会越来越大，以支持先进技术，在3年内占产能的近三分之一。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e784ad457fc66c73ca376c7af1981e\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"427\"><span>Source:IC Insights</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IC Insights</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This is where TSMC shines with its leadership owing to its focus on continuously developing more advanced process technologies. While the company only accounts for 40% to 65% of revenues for the less sophisticated 28-65nm chips, it dominates the market for most advanced nodes with making up 90% of chips below 10nm. We expect it to maintain its leadership at the advanced nodes as other pureplay competitors struggle with developing their processes.</p><p><blockquote>这是台积电因专注于不断开发更先进的制程技术而发挥领导作用的地方。虽然该公司仅占不太复杂的28-65纳米芯片收入的40%至65%，但它在大多数先进节点市场占据主导地位，占10纳米以下芯片的90%。我们预计，随着其他纯竞争对手努力开发其流程，它将保持在高级节点的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab154a4af28b364c0c3dc9e281683ecd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\"><span>Source:Financial Times</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：金融时报</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of the TSMC’s technology roadmap, the company’s 5nm process is already in the second year of volume production and continues to be ramped up with strong demand from smartphone and HPC applications. Following 5nm, the company is moving to 4nm and targeting volume production by next year. Also, the company has scheduled the 3nm for volume production in the second half of 2022. Based on a FinFET transistor structure, it is believed that its 3nm can provide 70% logic density gain, boosting performance up to 15% and cutting power consumption by 30%. The transistor size in a 3nm node is just 1/20,000th of a human hair. At the same time, the company is developing its GAAFET-based 2nm node with production expected in its Taiwanese fabs across Hsinchu and Baoshan.</p><p><blockquote>就台积电的技术路线图而言，该公司的5nm工艺已经进入量产的第二年，并随着智能手机和HPC应用的强劲需求而继续提升。继5纳米之后，该公司正在转向4纳米，目标是明年量产。此外，该公司还计划在2022年下半年量产3nm。基于FinFET晶体管结构，据信其3nm可以提供70%的逻辑密度增益，将性能提升高达15%，功耗降低30%。3nm节点中的晶体管尺寸仅为人类头发丝的1/20,000。与此同时，该公司正在开发基于GAAFET的2纳米节点，预计将在其位于新竹和宝山的台湾晶圆厂生产。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Compared to leading competitors, Samsung’s roadmap is also quite similar to TSMC as it plans to mass produce 3nm chips in 2022 with 2nm possibly also indevelopmentwith IBM(NYSE:IBM)but produced by Samsung. More recently, TSMC has announced a breakthrough in thedevelopmentof 1nm. Whereas for Intel, its Arizona fab is only indicated to produce 7nm technologies but only when it is completed in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>与主要竞争对手相比，三星的路线图也与台积电非常相似，因为它计划在2022年大规模生产3纳米芯片，其中2纳米芯片可能也在与IBM（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IBM）合作开发，但由三星生产。最近，台积电宣布在1纳米开发方面取得突破。而对于英特尔来说，其亚利桑那州工厂仅表示将生产7纳米技术，但前提是在2024年竣工。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cce4edae659b7c5424284f348286586\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>Source:IC Insights</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IC Insights</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, TSMC’s investment plans allow it to derive a distinct advantage owing to its focus on advanced nodes despite the hefty costs. Among pure-play foundries, the company has the highest return on capital employed at 27.3% versus the industry average of 13.8%.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，尽管成本高昂，但台积电的投资计划使其能够获得明显的优势，因为它专注于先进节点。在纯代工厂中，该公司的资本回报率最高，为27.3%，而行业平均水平为13.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Return on Capital Employed</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>已动用资本回报率</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>TSMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>27.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>UMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>UMC</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>11.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>11.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>SMICOTCQX:SMICY</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>SMICOTCQX：SMICY</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>3.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>3.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <i>Source:WSJ</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：华尔街日报</i></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, TSMC also benefits from favourable pricing with a rising wafer pricing trend in line with its advanced node migration. As the only pure-play foundry with 7nm and 5nm in 2020, its wafer pricing increased by 6.8% while other pureplay foundries had flattish wafer pricing trends. As TSMC transitions to more advanced nodes, pricing is expected to trend upwards while its competitors’ prices remain relatively flat but couldriseby up around 20% this year due to tight capacity.</p><p><blockquote>此外，台积电还受益于有利的定价，晶圆价格随着其先进节点迁移而上涨。作为2020年唯一一家拥有7纳米和5纳米的纯晶圆代工厂，其晶圆定价上涨了6.8%，而其他纯晶圆代工厂的晶圆定价趋势平淡。随着台积电向更先进的节点过渡，定价预计将呈上升趋势，而其竞争对手的价格保持相对平稳，但由于产能紧张，今年可能会上涨20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d72237f327bae332b07dc3bbd226641a\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"326\"><span>Source:IC Insights</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IC Insights</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Besides advanced nodes, the company’s advantage due to its scale is apparent as evident from its superior profitability compared to rivals. Its gross margins of 53.21% and net margins of 38.86% triumphs UMC and SMIC. However, data for Global Foundries could not be obtained as it is a private company.</p><p><blockquote>除了先进的节点之外，该公司的规模优势也很明显，与竞争对手相比，其卓越的盈利能力也很明显。其毛利率为53.21%，净利润率为38.86%，击败了联电和中芯国际。然而，由于Global Foundries是一家私营公司，因此无法获得其数据。</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Revenues ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>收入（十亿美元）</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>毛利率</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Net Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>净利润率</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>TSMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$47.95</p><p><blockquote><td>$47.95</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>53.21%</p><p><blockquote><td>53.21%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>38.86%</p><p><blockquote><td>38.86%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>UMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>UMC</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$6.3</p><p><blockquote><td>$6.3</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>23.88%</p><p><blockquote><td>23.88%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>20.59%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.59%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>SMIC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>中芯国际</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$3.91</p><p><blockquote><td>$3.91</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>22.83%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.83%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>17.87%</p><p><blockquote><td>17.87%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Seeking Alpha, Investing.com, Macrotrends</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Seeking Alpha、Investing.com、Macrotrends</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Due to the robust foundry market, TSMC’s revenue grew 33% in 2020 with a 5-year average growth rate of 13.7%. Its average gross margins and net margins are 49.7% and 35% respectively.</p><p><blockquote>由于晶圆代工市场强劲，台积电2020年收入增长33%，5年平均增长率为13.7%。其平均毛利率和净利润率分别为49.7%和35%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb481e40dd284b4be697764012599660\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: TSMC, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：台积电、卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company has a strong cash flow generation profile with a 5-year average of 21%. However, due to the significant rise in guided capex from 2021 onwards, the company’s margins are expected to dip but recover as it expands aggressively.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有强劲的现金流生成状况，5年平均为21%。然而，由于从2021年起指导资本支出大幅上升，该公司的利润率预计将下降，但随着其积极扩张而恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef99c8c626d03cd5796d38088510e291\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: TSMC, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：台积电、卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Owing to its immense scale and technology leadership, the company has managed to solidify its leadership by growing its market share over the past 5 years to 56% in 2020. As the company scales up capacity and advanced nodes 5nm this year, we anticipate further market share gains even beyond 2021.</p><p><blockquote>由于其巨大的规模和技术领先地位，该公司在过去5年中将其市场份额提高到2020年的56%，从而巩固了其领导地位。随着该公司今年扩大产能和先进节点5纳米，我们预计市场份额甚至在2021年之后将进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58cebb1fc453c5861aac81712d01607\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The global foundry market is expected to grow at a 11% CAGR according to estimates from TrendForce. We expect TSMC to outpace this growth rate by gaining market share due to its scale and technological advantages as highlighted above. Overall, we see TSMC growing nearly 15% through 2023 which is in line with management guidance of 10 to 15% CAGR long term.</p><p><blockquote>根据TrendForce的估计，全球代工市场预计将以11%的CAGR增长。我们预计，由于上述规模和技术优势，台积电将通过获得市场份额来超越这一增长率。总体而言，我们预计台积电到2023年将增长近15%，这符合管理层长期复合年增长率10%至15%的指导。</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>TSMC Revenue Projection</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>台积电营收预测</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Foundry Market</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>代工市场</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>78,921</p><p><blockquote><td>78,921</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>87,602</p><p><blockquote><td>87,602</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>97,239</p><p><blockquote><td>97,239</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>107,935</p><p><blockquote><td>107,935</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>TSMC Foundry Revenues</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电代工收入</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>44,205</p><p><blockquote><td>44,205</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>50,809</p><p><blockquote><td>50,809</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>58,343</p><p><blockquote><td>58,343</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>66,920</p><p><blockquote><td>66,920</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>TSMC Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电成长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>14.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>14.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Statista, TrendForce, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、TrendForce、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> The industry average EV/EBITDA of the pure-play foundry market is 10.53x excluding Samsung which is a tech conglomerate.</p><p><blockquote>纯代工市场的行业平均EV/EBITDA为10.53倍，不包括科技集团三星。</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>TSMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>15.64</p><p><blockquote><td>15.64</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>UMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>UMC</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>8.89</p><p><blockquote><td>8.89</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>SMIC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>中芯国际</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>7.07</p><p><blockquote><td>7.07</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><b>Average</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>均值</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>10.53</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>10.53</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Seeking Alpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</i></blockquote></p><p> Based on a discount rate of 7.3% (company’s WACC), our model shows an upside of 15.2%.</p><p><blockquote>基于7.3%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为15.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cec106cd5858b583064db2d09cd133b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite all the plans by Samsung and Intel, TSMC remains too big to beat as a pure-play foundry leader with growing market share owing to its superior technology process and scale. In 2020, the company saw robust growth across most end market platforms despite the trade embargo on Huawei. Robust demand is expected to roll over into 2021 across all major end markets especially fueled by the resumption of auto production and structural trend of HPC and 5G. To capitalize on the multi-year megatrends, the company has not only stepped up its capex budget for the year potentially up 63% but also a long-term 3-year $100 bln investment commitment to expand capacity for the advanced nodes. This highlights its commitment towards implementing its roadmap for the node migration towards 4nm and 3nm next year followed by 2nm further into the future. These factors cumulatively solidify its market leadership which could lead to further market share gains. Overall, we rate the company as a<i>Buy</i>with a target price of<i>$126.32.</i></p><p><blockquote>尽管三星和英特尔制定了所有计划，但台积电作为纯粹的代工领导者，由于其卓越的技术工艺和规模，市场份额不断增长，其规模仍然太大，无法被击败。2020年，尽管对华为实施贸易禁运，该公司在大多数终端市场平台上都实现了强劲增长。预计所有主要终端市场的强劲需求将延续到2021年，特别是在汽车生产恢复以及HPC和5G的结构性趋势的推动下。为了利用多年大趋势，该公司不仅将今年的资本支出预算提高了63%，还做出了3年1000亿美元的长期投资承诺，以扩大高级节点的容量。这凸显了其致力于实施明年节点迁移到4纳米和3纳米以及未来2纳米的路线图。这些因素累积起来巩固了其市场领导地位，从而可能进一步提高市场份额。总体而言，我们将该公司评为<i>购买</i>目标价为<i>$126.32.</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432785-tsmc-expanding-foundry-market-leadership\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432785-tsmc-expanding-foundry-market-leadership","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160565063","content_text":"Summary\n\nTSMC’s growth by end market is expected to be strong across the board this year especially in HPC and automotive markets due to the resumption in auto production and structural.\nIt's undergoing aggressive capacity expansion plans after raising capex by over 60% and committing $100 bln over the next 3 years.\nThe company continues to lead with a solid technological advantage as it ramps up its 5nm production followed by 4nm and 3nm scheduled for mass production next year.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) is a pioneer of the pure-play foundry business model with an exclusive focus on manufacturing customers’ products. Backed by a robust demand environment and technological leadership with advanced nodes, TSMC’s market share increased to 56% in 2020 from 53% in the previous year. The company is anticipated to register another strong year of growth as strong demand rollover providing a tailwind and the structural drivers leading to an increase in the underlying semiconductor demand for HPC, IoT, 5G and automotive fueling strong demand from the multi-year megatrends.\nTSMC’s leadership position revolves around its competitive strengths from the scale as the largest pure-play foundry by capacity. The company is scaling up even further by committing an aggressive expansion plan increasing capex potentially up to 63% in 2020 and $100 bln over the next three years. Furthermore, as a technology leader, the company is continuously developing more advanced process technologies to maintain its lead. Its process technology roadmap indicates that it well-positioned to solidify this lead by targeting 3nm and 4nm nodes for mass production next year followed by 2nm further down the line.\nSource: TSMC\nStrong End Market Growth Across the Board Especially in HPC and Automotive\nTSMC’s impressive growth in 2020 was particularly strong across the HPC, IoT and smartphone end markets registering the highest growth rate among all end markets as depicted in the chart below. This is significant as these three end markets make up the largest segments by revenues with a combined contribution of 89%.\nSource: TSMC\nAlthough the smartphone platform is the largest segment, the end market which exhibited the highest growth was the HPC platform. Fueled by the work and study from home shift as well as rapid 5G deployment, HPC saw unit shipments grew by 11% which includes chips for PCs, tablets, game consoles, servers, and base stations. Looking ahead, management expects the robust demand to roll over into 2021 as structural factors spur demand for products at the leading edge including CPU, GPU, networking, FPGA, AI-accelerated video gaming, etc. For example, the proliferation of AI and machine learning applications across a broad range of industries with continuous R&D from tech giants spurring demand for accelerators to handle inferencing and training workloads leading to a CAGR of 42.2% to 2027 for the AI market. Additionally, the ongoing cloud migration by enterprises and scaling of data centers by leading cloud service provider fueling the cloud computing market with a CAGR of 17.5%. Other drivers include 5G deployment as well as next-generation gaming all requiring higher performance and power-efficient chips. All of these factors support the long-term growth of the HPC platform which TSMC believes can overtake the smartphone platform to become the most significant end market in the future.\nBesides HPC, the ongoing automotive chip shortage is another platform in which the company expects stronger growth this year. In 2020, the segment contracted in line with the decline in global vehicle sales by 14% as consumer confidence weakened and auto manufacturers halted production. As production resumes with car sales expected to rebound in the low teens, we expect the segment to grow in line with the industry recovery. Additionally, rising semiconductor content driven by EV which could see nearly10 times greater content per vehicle than a conventional combustion vehicle and ADAS fueling demand for sensors, analog and power ICs is a structural driver for TSMC.\nAdditionally, even more impressive about TSMC’s 2020 growth is the fact that the company lost a key contribution from the embargoed Huawei’s HiSilicon (12.8% of revenues) but still managed to register strong smartphone platform growth. Despite the modest global unit shipments decline of 9%, the growth in the platform is driven by 5G adoption, improved performance, longer battery life and increasing complexity of features such as biosensors and more AI features. These long-term factors support the company’s outlook for high single-digit growth in 2021 and beyond.\nSource:Toms Hardware, The Information Network\nAggressive Capacity Expansion Plans and Investments\nIn terms of capacity expansion, TSMC has upped its game in 2021 by increasing its capex by potentially 63% more than last year to $28 bln. The company has announced that around 80% of the budgeted capex will be allocated to expand capacity for the advanced process technologies below 7nm with the remainder for advanced packaging and specialty technologies. Additionally, it is also committing $100 bln over the next 3 years to increase capacity and support R&D towards advanced processes.\nPreviously, TSMC also announced its plan to expand in the US with a $12 bln fab in Arizona capable of producing 5nm chips. The 12-inch fab in Phoenix is relatively modest with a planned output of 20,000 with volume production only expected in 2024. Though, it has also been reported that TSMC might further increase the capacity and equipment capabilities which is a strong possibility with the robust demand environment and the company has also indicated that the location allows it to expand capacity if desired.\nSource:EENewsEurope,Techspot\nIn comparison with other larger spenders Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)and Samsung, TSMC’s planned investment commitment of $100 bln for foundry expansion is the most significant. In March, Intel announced it's planned a $20 bln initialinvestmentin Arizona for the construction of two fabs to directly compete with TSMC but a lot more is needed to stand a chance at challenging TSMC’s dominance. On the other hand, Samsung’s plannedinvestmentsof $116 bln are larger but spread across a longer period of 10 years compared to just 3 for TSMC.\n\n\n\nSource:Bloomberg\nTSMC’s Superior Process Technology and Roadmap\nBacked by its strong investment commitment, TSMC is able to reap the benefits from its strength as a technological leader in semiconductor manufacturing. Shrinking the size of transistors is becoming more challenging with prohibitive costs but a key feature for increasing chip density allowing continued performance improvements and energy efficiency. Chips at the leading edge nodes (below 10nm) are critical to achieve this and its share of demand would only grow larger to support advanced technologies accounting for nearly one third of capacity in 3 years.\nSource:IC Insights\nThis is where TSMC shines with its leadership owing to its focus on continuously developing more advanced process technologies. While the company only accounts for 40% to 65% of revenues for the less sophisticated 28-65nm chips, it dominates the market for most advanced nodes with making up 90% of chips below 10nm. We expect it to maintain its leadership at the advanced nodes as other pureplay competitors struggle with developing their processes.\nSource:Financial Times\nIn terms of the TSMC’s technology roadmap, the company’s 5nm process is already in the second year of volume production and continues to be ramped up with strong demand from smartphone and HPC applications. Following 5nm, the company is moving to 4nm and targeting volume production by next year. Also, the company has scheduled the 3nm for volume production in the second half of 2022. Based on a FinFET transistor structure, it is believed that its 3nm can provide 70% logic density gain, boosting performance up to 15% and cutting power consumption by 30%. The transistor size in a 3nm node is just 1/20,000th of a human hair. At the same time, the company is developing its GAAFET-based 2nm node with production expected in its Taiwanese fabs across Hsinchu and Baoshan.\nCompared to leading competitors, Samsung’s roadmap is also quite similar to TSMC as it plans to mass produce 3nm chips in 2022 with 2nm possibly also indevelopmentwith IBM(NYSE:IBM)but produced by Samsung. More recently, TSMC has announced a breakthrough in thedevelopmentof 1nm. Whereas for Intel, its Arizona fab is only indicated to produce 7nm technologies but only when it is completed in 2024.\nSource:IC Insights\nOverall, TSMC’s investment plans allow it to derive a distinct advantage owing to its focus on advanced nodes despite the hefty costs. Among pure-play foundries, the company has the highest return on capital employed at 27.3% versus the industry average of 13.8%.\n\n\n\nCompany\nReturn on Capital Employed\n\n\nTSMC\n27.3%\n\n\nUMC\n11.1%\n\n\nSMICOTCQX:SMICY\n3.1%\n\n\n\nSource:WSJ\nMoreover, TSMC also benefits from favourable pricing with a rising wafer pricing trend in line with its advanced node migration. As the only pure-play foundry with 7nm and 5nm in 2020, its wafer pricing increased by 6.8% while other pureplay foundries had flattish wafer pricing trends. As TSMC transitions to more advanced nodes, pricing is expected to trend upwards while its competitors’ prices remain relatively flat but couldriseby up around 20% this year due to tight capacity.\nSource:IC Insights\nBesides advanced nodes, the company’s advantage due to its scale is apparent as evident from its superior profitability compared to rivals. Its gross margins of 53.21% and net margins of 38.86% triumphs UMC and SMIC. However, data for Global Foundries could not be obtained as it is a private company.\n\n\n\nCompany\nRevenues ($ bln)\nGross Margins\nNet Margins\n\n\nTSMC\n$47.95\n53.21%\n38.86%\n\n\nUMC\n$6.3\n23.88%\n20.59%\n\n\nSMIC\n$3.91\n22.83%\n17.87%\n\n\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Investing.com, Macrotrends\nValuation\nDue to the robust foundry market, TSMC’s revenue grew 33% in 2020 with a 5-year average growth rate of 13.7%. Its average gross margins and net margins are 49.7% and 35% respectively.\nSource: TSMC, Khaveen Investments\nThe company has a strong cash flow generation profile with a 5-year average of 21%. However, due to the significant rise in guided capex from 2021 onwards, the company’s margins are expected to dip but recover as it expands aggressively.\nSource: TSMC, Khaveen Investments\nOwing to its immense scale and technology leadership, the company has managed to solidify its leadership by growing its market share over the past 5 years to 56% in 2020. As the company scales up capacity and advanced nodes 5nm this year, we anticipate further market share gains even beyond 2021.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe global foundry market is expected to grow at a 11% CAGR according to estimates from TrendForce. We expect TSMC to outpace this growth rate by gaining market share due to its scale and technological advantages as highlighted above. Overall, we see TSMC growing nearly 15% through 2023 which is in line with management guidance of 10 to 15% CAGR long term.\n\n\n\nTSMC Revenue Projection\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nFoundry Market\n78,921\n87,602\n97,239\n107,935\n\n\nTSMC Foundry Revenues\n44,205\n50,809\n58,343\n66,920\n\n\nTSMC Growth %\n14.9%\n14.8%\n14.7%\n\n\n\nSource: Statista, TrendForce, Khaveen Investments\nThe industry average EV/EBITDA of the pure-play foundry market is 10.53x excluding Samsung which is a tech conglomerate.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nTSMC\n15.64\n\n\nUMC\n8.89\n\n\nSMIC\n7.07\n\n\nAverage\n10.53\n\n\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nBased on a discount rate of 7.3% (company’s WACC), our model shows an upside of 15.2%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nDespite all the plans by Samsung and Intel, TSMC remains too big to beat as a pure-play foundry leader with growing market share owing to its superior technology process and scale. In 2020, the company saw robust growth across most end market platforms despite the trade embargo on Huawei. Robust demand is expected to roll over into 2021 across all major end markets especially fueled by the resumption of auto production and structural trend of HPC and 5G. To capitalize on the multi-year megatrends, the company has not only stepped up its capex budget for the year potentially up 63% but also a long-term 3-year $100 bln investment commitment to expand capacity for the advanced nodes. This highlights its commitment towards implementing its roadmap for the node migration towards 4nm and 3nm next year followed by 2nm further into the future. These factors cumulatively solidify its market leadership which could lead to further market share gains. Overall, we rate the company as aBuywith a target price of$126.32.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/118636247"}
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