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2021-06-01
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Forget AMC: Buy These 2 Landlords Instead<blockquote>忘记AMC：买这两个房东</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":119845492,"tweetId":"119845492","gmtCreate":1622537731716,"gmtModify":1634100701026,"author":{"id":3571302905057300,"idStr":"3571302905057300","authorId":3571302905057300,"authorIdStr":"3571302905057300","name":"SebZz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Good</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Good</p></body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119845492","repostId":1119863685,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119863685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622536083,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119863685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 16:28","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Forget AMC: Buy These 2 Landlords Instead<blockquote>忘记AMC：买这两个房东</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119863685","media":"seeking alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAMC is the new GameStop.\nIt could go way higher before it eventually crashes down, but we a","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>AMC is the new GameStop.</li> <li>It could go way higher before it eventually crashes down, but we are not interested in buying or shorting it.</li> <li>Its landlords will profit and offer much better risk-to-reward.</li> <li>Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of High Yield Landlord get exclusive access to our model portfolio.</li> </ul> As I write this, AMC (AMC) is surging by another 40%, putting its share price even higher than earlier this year when the GameStop (GME) short-squeeze occurred:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMC是新的游戏驿站。</li><li>在最终崩溃之前，它可能会走高，但我们对买入或做空它不感兴趣。</li><li>它的房东将从中获利，并提供更好的风险回报。</li><li>寻找像这样的创意组合？高收益房东的成员可以独家访问我们的模型投资组合。</li></ul>在我撰写本文时，AMC(AMC)又飙升了40%，其股价甚至高于今年早些时候游戏驿站(GME)轧空时发生的水平：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c98eefe8f7d098a7cf688abdaa5226a1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> As a result, increasingly many Redditors are calling AMC the new GME.</p><p><blockquote>因此，越来越多的Reddit用户将AMC称为新的GME。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, AMC is now more regularly mentioned than GME on wallstreetbets, and with over 10 million registered users pumping it, how high can it go?</p><p><blockquote>事实上，AMC现在在wallstreetbets上比GME更经常被提及，并且拥有超过1000万注册用户，它能涨到多高？</blockquote></p><p> Some see it going all the way to the moon...</p><p><blockquote>有些人认为它会一直飞向月球...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/479f3f74384d8e447aef2b6d817a3d44\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> The stock is up 1,000% since the beginning of the year and the momentum appears to be strong:</p><p><blockquote>该股自年初以来已上涨1,000%，势头似乎很强劲：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The vaccine deployment has been a success</li> <li>The world is quickly reopening</li> <li>Block-busters are coming back</li> <li>Wallstreetbets is the biggest it has been</li> <li>And finally, AMC is more mediatized than ever, which helps its stock, but also it's business just as we reopen theaters.</li> </ul> Even then, I wouldn't touch AMC with a 10-foot pole.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>疫苗部署取得了成功</li><li>世界正在迅速重新开放</li><li>大片又回来了</li><li>Wallstreetbets是有史以来最大的</li><li>最后，AMC比以往任何时候都更加媒体化，这有助于其股票，也有助于其业务，就像我们重新开放影院一样。</li></ul>即使那样，我也不会用10英尺长的杆子碰AMC。</blockquote></p><p> I wouldn't short it because if there is anything to be learned from this year, it is that you shouldn't underestimate the power of the retail crowd.</p><p><blockquote>我不会做空它，因为如果说今年有什么值得学习的话，那就是你不应该低估零售人群的力量。</blockquote></p><p> But I wouldn't buy it either because this is gambling, not investing. AMC is priced at an insane valuation that likely won't be sustained in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>但我也不会买，因为这是赌博，不是投资。AMC的估值过高，从长远来看可能无法持续。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fortunately, we can still profit from the AMC saga by investing in its landlords.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>幸运的是，我们仍然可以通过投资AMC的房东从AMC传奇中获利。</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent short squeeze has allowed AMC to raise equity at an opportune time and it greatly improves its chances of survival. Moreover, it is currently getting billions worth of free promotion as everybody is talking about AMC. This heavy promotion, coupled with the reopening of theaters, should lead to a strong recovery.</p><p><blockquote>最近的轧空使AMC能够在适当的时候筹集股本，大大提高了其生存机会。此外，由于每个人都在谈论AMC，它目前正在获得价值数十亿美元的免费推广。这种重磅促销，加上影院的重新开放，应该会带来强劲的复苏。</blockquote></p><p> As such, we think that AMC's landlord will soon start collecting rent payments, as well as late payments for the missed rents of the past year.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们认为AMC的房东很快就会开始收取租金，以及过去一年拖欠租金的滞纳金。</blockquote></p><p> Below, we highlight two of our Top Picks to profit from AMC's recovery:</p><p><blockquote>下面，我们重点介绍从AMC复苏中获利的两个首选：</blockquote></p><p> EPR Properties (EPR)</p><p><blockquote>EPR特性(EPR)</blockquote></p><p> <b>EPR Properties</b>(EPR) generates 18% of its revenue from AMC and another ~30% from other movie theater tenants. The rest of its revenue comes from other experiential properties such as golf complexes, ski areas, and water parks:</p><p><blockquote><b>EPR属性</b>(EPR)18%的收入来自AMC，另外约30%来自其他电影院租户。其其余收入来自其他体验式酒店，例如高尔夫球场、滑雪场和水上公园：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6624e25be52188c36e1c0a8a2636a9c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> At the onset of the pandemic, its rent collection rate collapsed to the lowest level in the company's history as its tenants were forced to close properties.</p><p><blockquote>疫情爆发时，由于租户被迫关闭房产，其租金收缴率跌至该公司历史上的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, it hurt the company's market sentiment, and caused its share price to drop from ~$80 per share to just $48 today:</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，这损害了该公司的市场情绪，并导致其股价从每股约80美元跌至今天的48美元：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c00071750f04d68af4799939a95bcec\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> But now the company is at an inflection point.</p><p><blockquote>但现在公司正处于拐点。</blockquote></p><p> Its rent collection rates have already bounced back to nearly 80%, and by the end of this month, they expect >95% of their properties to be open.</p><p><blockquote>其租金收缴率已经反弹至近80%，到本月底，他们预计超过95%的房产将开放。</blockquote></p><p> This should push rent collection rates to near-100% in the 3rd quarter and allow the company to reinstate a dividend:</p><p><blockquote>这应该会将第三季度的租金收缴率推至接近100%，并使公司能够恢复股息：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c90210668ca332c632fe2f7a935d492\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> That's very good news for EPR shareholders and should serve as a strong catalyst to the stock moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>这对EPR股东来说是个非常好的消息，应该会成为该股上涨的强大催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, EPR is priced at 11x expected normalized AFFO, which is nearly 2x lower than some of its high-quality net lease peers. That remains a great value and as EPR recovers from this crisis, reinstates the dividend, and returns to growth, it is reasonable to expect a repricing in the 15-20x range.</p><p><blockquote>目前，EPR的定价为预期正常化AFFO的11倍，比一些高质量净租赁同行低近2倍。这仍然是一个巨大的价值，随着EPR从这场危机中恢复过来，恢复股息并恢复增长，有理由预计重新定价将在15-20倍范围内。</blockquote></p><p> This is especially true when you consider that the post-covid world will favor EPR's experiential properties. As McKinsey recently noted: \"As consumer confidence returns, so will spending, with 'revenge shopping' sweeping through sectors as pent-up demand is unleashed... The bounce back will likely emphasize those businesses that have a communal element such as entertainment venues.\"</p><p><blockquote>当您考虑到后covid世界将青睐EPR的体验属性时，尤其如此。正如麦肯锡最近指出的那样：“随着消费者信心的恢复，支出也会恢复，随着被压抑的需求被释放，‘报复性购物’席卷各个行业……反弹可能会强调那些具有公共元素的企业，例如娱乐场所。”</blockquote></p><p> Macerich (MAC)</p><p><blockquote>Macerich（MAC）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macerich</b>(MAC) is the owner of the highest quality mall portfolio in the US. These are highly urban mixed-use retail properties with large entertainment components, including AMC movie theaters:</p><p><blockquote><b>马切里奇</b>(MAC)是美国最高质量购物中心组合的所有者。这些都是高度城市化的混合用途零售物业，具有大型娱乐组件，包括AMC电影院：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b469e811278be70988321cd47d8ffd28\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> Unlike EPR, MAC does not generate much of its revenue from AMC.</p><p><blockquote>与EPR不同，MAC的大部分收入来自AMC。</blockquote></p><p> However, the movie theaters take a lot of space and affect MAC's investor sentiment because many investors fear that these theaters will be vacated and require significant reinvestments to be released to other uses.</p><p><blockquote>然而，电影院占用了大量空间，影响了MAC的投资者情绪，因为许多投资者担心这些影院将被腾空，需要大量再投资才能用于其他用途。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, a stronger AMC benefits MAC. As it survives and recovers, it should boost MAC's market sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>因此，更强大的AMC有利于MAC。随着它的生存和复苏，应该会提振MAC的市场情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, as more people go to theaters, it also benefits MAC's other tenants. You don't go to a mall just to watch a movie. You may plan your trip around the movie, but you then also go shopping and dining. Therefore, the recovery of one tenant ends benefits many others, compounding the impact on MAC's profitability:</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着越来越多的人去影院，这也有利于MAC的其他租户。你去商场不只是为了看电影。你可能会围绕电影计划你的旅行，但你也会去购物和吃饭。因此，一个租户端的复苏有利于许多其他租户，从而加剧了对MAC盈利能力的影响：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d94bc1525f75b352dce994cc4cf20f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> Even ignoring the positive impact of AMC's survival, we have good reasons to be optimistic because:</p><p><blockquote>即使忽略AMC生存的积极影响，我们也有充分的理由保持乐观，因为：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The leasing activity is nearly as strong as before the crisis and points to a rapid recovery in occupancy rates.</li> <li>Its portfolio-wide sales per square foot are already higher than pre-pandemic.</li> <li>Nearly all 2021 lease expirations are already handled. 70% are committed and the remaining 30% are under LOI.</li> <li>Rent collection rates have recovered to 94% and trending positively.</li> <li>Its tenant watchlist is the shortest in many years.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>租赁活动几乎与危机前一样强劲，表明入住率正在迅速回升。</li><li>其整个投资组合的每平方英尺销售额已经高于大流行前。</li><li>几乎所有2021年到期的租约都已经处理完毕。70%已承诺，其余30%根据意向书。</li><li>租金收缴率已恢复至94%，趋势良好。</li><li>其租户观察名单是多年来最短的。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> MAC owns the best properties in its peer group and it is well-reflected in its rapidly recovering fundamentals. Even then, it is still priced at just $16, which is very far off from the $95 per share that Simon (SPG) offered to pay for it back in 2015.</p><p><blockquote>MAC拥有同行中最好的房产，这一点在其快速复苏的基本面中得到了很好的体现。即便如此，其定价仍仅为16美元，与西蒙(SPG)2015年提出的每股95美元相去甚远。</blockquote></p><p> Now, I understand that there has been some dilution since then, but even taking that into account, MAC appears deeply undervalued and poised for a strong recovery in the post-pandemic world. This is not without risks of course, but we like the risk-to-reward.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我知道自那以后出现了一些稀释，但即使考虑到这一点，MAC的价值似乎也被严重低估，并准备在大流行后的世界中强劲复苏。当然，这并非没有风险，但我们喜欢风险回报。</blockquote></p><p> Bottom Line</p><p><blockquote>底线</blockquote></p><p> AMC has for a long time withheld rent payments, but with its increasingly likely survival and strong expected recovery in movie-going, we expect rent payments to soon resume, and this should benefit its landlords.</p><p><blockquote>AMC长期以来一直拒绝支付租金，但随着其生存的可能性越来越大，以及电影票房的强劲预期复苏，我们预计租金支付将很快恢复，这应该会使其房东受益。</blockquote></p><p> The point here is that you don't need to take crazy risks to profit from AMC's recent saga. Its landlords will indirectly benefit from it, and yet, they remain priced at much more reasonable valuations, which we expect to increase as their market sentiment recover.</p><p><blockquote>这里的要点是，你不需要冒疯狂的风险来从AMC最近的传奇中获利。其房东将间接从中受益，但他们的估值仍然合理得多，我们预计随着市场情绪的恢复，估值将会上升。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Forget AMC: Buy These 2 Landlords Instead<blockquote>忘记AMC：买这两个房东</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget AMC: Buy These 2 Landlords Instead<blockquote>忘记AMC：买这两个房东</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-01 16:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>AMC is the new GameStop.</li> <li>It could go way higher before it eventually crashes down, but we are not interested in buying or shorting it.</li> <li>Its landlords will profit and offer much better risk-to-reward.</li> <li>Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of High Yield Landlord get exclusive access to our model portfolio.</li> </ul> As I write this, AMC (AMC) is surging by another 40%, putting its share price even higher than earlier this year when the GameStop (GME) short-squeeze occurred:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMC是新的游戏驿站。</li><li>在最终崩溃之前，它可能会走高，但我们对买入或做空它不感兴趣。</li><li>它的房东将从中获利，并提供更好的风险回报。</li><li>寻找像这样的创意组合？高收益房东的成员可以独家访问我们的模型投资组合。</li></ul>在我撰写本文时，AMC(AMC)又飙升了40%，其股价甚至高于今年早些时候游戏驿站(GME)轧空时发生的水平：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c98eefe8f7d098a7cf688abdaa5226a1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> As a result, increasingly many Redditors are calling AMC the new GME.</p><p><blockquote>因此，越来越多的Reddit用户将AMC称为新的GME。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, AMC is now more regularly mentioned than GME on wallstreetbets, and with over 10 million registered users pumping it, how high can it go?</p><p><blockquote>事实上，AMC现在在wallstreetbets上比GME更经常被提及，并且拥有超过1000万注册用户，它能涨到多高？</blockquote></p><p> Some see it going all the way to the moon...</p><p><blockquote>有些人认为它会一直飞向月球...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/479f3f74384d8e447aef2b6d817a3d44\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> The stock is up 1,000% since the beginning of the year and the momentum appears to be strong:</p><p><blockquote>该股自年初以来已上涨1,000%，势头似乎很强劲：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The vaccine deployment has been a success</li> <li>The world is quickly reopening</li> <li>Block-busters are coming back</li> <li>Wallstreetbets is the biggest it has been</li> <li>And finally, AMC is more mediatized than ever, which helps its stock, but also it's business just as we reopen theaters.</li> </ul> Even then, I wouldn't touch AMC with a 10-foot pole.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>疫苗部署取得了成功</li><li>世界正在迅速重新开放</li><li>大片又回来了</li><li>Wallstreetbets是有史以来最大的</li><li>最后，AMC比以往任何时候都更加媒体化，这有助于其股票，也有助于其业务，就像我们重新开放影院一样。</li></ul>即使那样，我也不会用10英尺长的杆子碰AMC。</blockquote></p><p> I wouldn't short it because if there is anything to be learned from this year, it is that you shouldn't underestimate the power of the retail crowd.</p><p><blockquote>我不会做空它，因为如果说今年有什么值得学习的话，那就是你不应该低估零售人群的力量。</blockquote></p><p> But I wouldn't buy it either because this is gambling, not investing. AMC is priced at an insane valuation that likely won't be sustained in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>但我也不会买，因为这是赌博，不是投资。AMC的估值过高，从长远来看可能无法持续。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fortunately, we can still profit from the AMC saga by investing in its landlords.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>幸运的是，我们仍然可以通过投资AMC的房东从AMC传奇中获利。</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent short squeeze has allowed AMC to raise equity at an opportune time and it greatly improves its chances of survival. Moreover, it is currently getting billions worth of free promotion as everybody is talking about AMC. This heavy promotion, coupled with the reopening of theaters, should lead to a strong recovery.</p><p><blockquote>最近的轧空使AMC能够在适当的时候筹集股本，大大提高了其生存机会。此外，由于每个人都在谈论AMC，它目前正在获得价值数十亿美元的免费推广。这种重磅促销，加上影院的重新开放，应该会带来强劲的复苏。</blockquote></p><p> As such, we think that AMC's landlord will soon start collecting rent payments, as well as late payments for the missed rents of the past year.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们认为AMC的房东很快就会开始收取租金，以及过去一年拖欠租金的滞纳金。</blockquote></p><p> Below, we highlight two of our Top Picks to profit from AMC's recovery:</p><p><blockquote>下面，我们重点介绍从AMC复苏中获利的两个首选：</blockquote></p><p> EPR Properties (EPR)</p><p><blockquote>EPR特性(EPR)</blockquote></p><p> <b>EPR Properties</b>(EPR) generates 18% of its revenue from AMC and another ~30% from other movie theater tenants. The rest of its revenue comes from other experiential properties such as golf complexes, ski areas, and water parks:</p><p><blockquote><b>EPR属性</b>(EPR)18%的收入来自AMC，另外约30%来自其他电影院租户。其其余收入来自其他体验式酒店，例如高尔夫球场、滑雪场和水上公园：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6624e25be52188c36e1c0a8a2636a9c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> At the onset of the pandemic, its rent collection rate collapsed to the lowest level in the company's history as its tenants were forced to close properties.</p><p><blockquote>疫情爆发时，由于租户被迫关闭房产，其租金收缴率跌至该公司历史上的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, it hurt the company's market sentiment, and caused its share price to drop from ~$80 per share to just $48 today:</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，这损害了该公司的市场情绪，并导致其股价从每股约80美元跌至今天的48美元：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c00071750f04d68af4799939a95bcec\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> But now the company is at an inflection point.</p><p><blockquote>但现在公司正处于拐点。</blockquote></p><p> Its rent collection rates have already bounced back to nearly 80%, and by the end of this month, they expect >95% of their properties to be open.</p><p><blockquote>其租金收缴率已经反弹至近80%，到本月底，他们预计超过95%的房产将开放。</blockquote></p><p> This should push rent collection rates to near-100% in the 3rd quarter and allow the company to reinstate a dividend:</p><p><blockquote>这应该会将第三季度的租金收缴率推至接近100%，并使公司能够恢复股息：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c90210668ca332c632fe2f7a935d492\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> That's very good news for EPR shareholders and should serve as a strong catalyst to the stock moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>这对EPR股东来说是个非常好的消息，应该会成为该股上涨的强大催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, EPR is priced at 11x expected normalized AFFO, which is nearly 2x lower than some of its high-quality net lease peers. That remains a great value and as EPR recovers from this crisis, reinstates the dividend, and returns to growth, it is reasonable to expect a repricing in the 15-20x range.</p><p><blockquote>目前，EPR的定价为预期正常化AFFO的11倍，比一些高质量净租赁同行低近2倍。这仍然是一个巨大的价值，随着EPR从这场危机中恢复过来，恢复股息并恢复增长，有理由预计重新定价将在15-20倍范围内。</blockquote></p><p> This is especially true when you consider that the post-covid world will favor EPR's experiential properties. As McKinsey recently noted: \"As consumer confidence returns, so will spending, with 'revenge shopping' sweeping through sectors as pent-up demand is unleashed... The bounce back will likely emphasize those businesses that have a communal element such as entertainment venues.\"</p><p><blockquote>当您考虑到后covid世界将青睐EPR的体验属性时，尤其如此。正如麦肯锡最近指出的那样：“随着消费者信心的恢复，支出也会恢复，随着被压抑的需求被释放，‘报复性购物’席卷各个行业……反弹可能会强调那些具有公共元素的企业，例如娱乐场所。”</blockquote></p><p> Macerich (MAC)</p><p><blockquote>Macerich（MAC）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macerich</b>(MAC) is the owner of the highest quality mall portfolio in the US. These are highly urban mixed-use retail properties with large entertainment components, including AMC movie theaters:</p><p><blockquote><b>马切里奇</b>(MAC)是美国最高质量购物中心组合的所有者。这些都是高度城市化的混合用途零售物业，具有大型娱乐组件，包括AMC电影院：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b469e811278be70988321cd47d8ffd28\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> Unlike EPR, MAC does not generate much of its revenue from AMC.</p><p><blockquote>与EPR不同，MAC的大部分收入来自AMC。</blockquote></p><p> However, the movie theaters take a lot of space and affect MAC's investor sentiment because many investors fear that these theaters will be vacated and require significant reinvestments to be released to other uses.</p><p><blockquote>然而，电影院占用了大量空间，影响了MAC的投资者情绪，因为许多投资者担心这些影院将被腾空，需要大量再投资才能用于其他用途。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, a stronger AMC benefits MAC. As it survives and recovers, it should boost MAC's market sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>因此，更强大的AMC有利于MAC。随着它的生存和复苏，应该会提振MAC的市场情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, as more people go to theaters, it also benefits MAC's other tenants. You don't go to a mall just to watch a movie. You may plan your trip around the movie, but you then also go shopping and dining. Therefore, the recovery of one tenant ends benefits many others, compounding the impact on MAC's profitability:</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着越来越多的人去影院，这也有利于MAC的其他租户。你去商场不只是为了看电影。你可能会围绕电影计划你的旅行，但你也会去购物和吃饭。因此，一个租户端的复苏有利于许多其他租户，从而加剧了对MAC盈利能力的影响：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d94bc1525f75b352dce994cc4cf20f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> Even ignoring the positive impact of AMC's survival, we have good reasons to be optimistic because:</p><p><blockquote>即使忽略AMC生存的积极影响，我们也有充分的理由保持乐观，因为：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The leasing activity is nearly as strong as before the crisis and points to a rapid recovery in occupancy rates.</li> <li>Its portfolio-wide sales per square foot are already higher than pre-pandemic.</li> <li>Nearly all 2021 lease expirations are already handled. 70% are committed and the remaining 30% are under LOI.</li> <li>Rent collection rates have recovered to 94% and trending positively.</li> <li>Its tenant watchlist is the shortest in many years.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>租赁活动几乎与危机前一样强劲，表明入住率正在迅速回升。</li><li>其整个投资组合的每平方英尺销售额已经高于大流行前。</li><li>几乎所有2021年到期的租约都已经处理完毕。70%已承诺，其余30%根据意向书。</li><li>租金收缴率已恢复至94%，趋势良好。</li><li>其租户观察名单是多年来最短的。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> MAC owns the best properties in its peer group and it is well-reflected in its rapidly recovering fundamentals. Even then, it is still priced at just $16, which is very far off from the $95 per share that Simon (SPG) offered to pay for it back in 2015.</p><p><blockquote>MAC拥有同行中最好的房产，这一点在其快速复苏的基本面中得到了很好的体现。即便如此，其定价仍仅为16美元，与西蒙(SPG)2015年提出的每股95美元相去甚远。</blockquote></p><p> Now, I understand that there has been some dilution since then, but even taking that into account, MAC appears deeply undervalued and poised for a strong recovery in the post-pandemic world. This is not without risks of course, but we like the risk-to-reward.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我知道自那以后出现了一些稀释，但即使考虑到这一点，MAC的价值似乎也被严重低估，并准备在大流行后的世界中强劲复苏。当然，这并非没有风险，但我们喜欢风险回报。</blockquote></p><p> Bottom Line</p><p><blockquote>底线</blockquote></p><p> AMC has for a long time withheld rent payments, but with its increasingly likely survival and strong expected recovery in movie-going, we expect rent payments to soon resume, and this should benefit its landlords.</p><p><blockquote>AMC长期以来一直拒绝支付租金，但随着其生存的可能性越来越大，以及电影票房的强劲预期复苏，我们预计租金支付将很快恢复，这应该会使其房东受益。</blockquote></p><p> The point here is that you don't need to take crazy risks to profit from AMC's recent saga. Its landlords will indirectly benefit from it, and yet, they remain priced at much more reasonable valuations, which we expect to increase as their market sentiment recover.</p><p><blockquote>这里的要点是，你不需要冒疯狂的风险来从AMC最近的传奇中获利。其房东将间接从中受益，但他们的估值仍然合理得多，我们预计随着市场情绪的恢复，估值将会上升。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4431956-forget-amc-buy-these-2-landlords-instead\">seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EPR":"EPR不动产","MAC":"马塞里奇房产"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4431956-forget-amc-buy-these-2-landlords-instead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119863685","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMC is the new GameStop.\nIt could go way higher before it eventually crashes down, but we are not interested in buying or shorting it.\nIts landlords will profit and offer much better risk-to-reward.\nLooking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of High Yield Landlord get exclusive access to our model portfolio.\n\nAs I write this, AMC (AMC) is surging by another 40%, putting its share price even higher than earlier this year when the GameStop (GME) short-squeeze occurred:\nData byYCharts\nAs a result, increasingly many Redditors are calling AMC the new GME.\nIn fact, AMC is now more regularly mentioned than GME on wallstreetbets, and with over 10 million registered users pumping it, how high can it go?\nSome see it going all the way to the moon...\n\nsource\nThe stock is up 1,000% since the beginning of the year and the momentum appears to be strong:\n\nThe vaccine deployment has been a success\nThe world is quickly reopening\nBlock-busters are coming back\nWallstreetbets is the biggest it has been\nAnd finally, AMC is more mediatized than ever, which helps its stock, but also it's business just as we reopen theaters.\n\nEven then, I wouldn't touch AMC with a 10-foot pole.\nI wouldn't short it because if there is anything to be learned from this year, it is that you shouldn't underestimate the power of the retail crowd.\nBut I wouldn't buy it either because this is gambling, not investing. AMC is priced at an insane valuation that likely won't be sustained in the long run.\nFortunately, we can still profit from the AMC saga by investing in its landlords.\nThe recent short squeeze has allowed AMC to raise equity at an opportune time and it greatly improves its chances of survival. Moreover, it is currently getting billions worth of free promotion as everybody is talking about AMC. This heavy promotion, coupled with the reopening of theaters, should lead to a strong recovery.\nAs such, we think that AMC's landlord will soon start collecting rent payments, as well as late payments for the missed rents of the past year.\nBelow, we highlight two of our Top Picks to profit from AMC's recovery:\nEPR Properties (EPR)\nEPR Properties(EPR) generates 18% of its revenue from AMC and another ~30% from other movie theater tenants. The rest of its revenue comes from other experiential properties such as golf complexes, ski areas, and water parks:\n\nsource\nAt the onset of the pandemic, its rent collection rate collapsed to the lowest level in the company's history as its tenants were forced to close properties.\nNot surprisingly, it hurt the company's market sentiment, and caused its share price to drop from ~$80 per share to just $48 today:\nData byYCharts\nBut now the company is at an inflection point.\nIts rent collection rates have already bounced back to nearly 80%, and by the end of this month, they expect >95% of their properties to be open.\nThis should push rent collection rates to near-100% in the 3rd quarter and allow the company to reinstate a dividend:\n\nsource\nThat's very good news for EPR shareholders and should serve as a strong catalyst to the stock moving forward.\nRight now, EPR is priced at 11x expected normalized AFFO, which is nearly 2x lower than some of its high-quality net lease peers. That remains a great value and as EPR recovers from this crisis, reinstates the dividend, and returns to growth, it is reasonable to expect a repricing in the 15-20x range.\nThis is especially true when you consider that the post-covid world will favor EPR's experiential properties. As McKinsey recently noted: \"As consumer confidence returns, so will spending, with 'revenge shopping' sweeping through sectors as pent-up demand is unleashed... The bounce back will likely emphasize those businesses that have a communal element such as entertainment venues.\"\nMacerich (MAC)\nMacerich(MAC) is the owner of the highest quality mall portfolio in the US. These are highly urban mixed-use retail properties with large entertainment components, including AMC movie theaters:\n\nsource\nUnlike EPR, MAC does not generate much of its revenue from AMC.\nHowever, the movie theaters take a lot of space and affect MAC's investor sentiment because many investors fear that these theaters will be vacated and require significant reinvestments to be released to other uses.\nTherefore, a stronger AMC benefits MAC. As it survives and recovers, it should boost MAC's market sentiment.\nMoreover, as more people go to theaters, it also benefits MAC's other tenants. You don't go to a mall just to watch a movie. You may plan your trip around the movie, but you then also go shopping and dining. Therefore, the recovery of one tenant ends benefits many others, compounding the impact on MAC's profitability:\n\nsource\nEven ignoring the positive impact of AMC's survival, we have good reasons to be optimistic because:\n\nThe leasing activity is nearly as strong as before the crisis and points to a rapid recovery in occupancy rates.\nIts portfolio-wide sales per square foot are already higher than pre-pandemic.\nNearly all 2021 lease expirations are already handled. 70% are committed and the remaining 30% are under LOI.\nRent collection rates have recovered to 94% and trending positively.\nIts tenant watchlist is the shortest in many years.\n\nMAC owns the best properties in its peer group and it is well-reflected in its rapidly recovering fundamentals. Even then, it is still priced at just $16, which is very far off from the $95 per share that Simon (SPG) offered to pay for it back in 2015.\nNow, I understand that there has been some dilution since then, but even taking that into account, MAC appears deeply undervalued and poised for a strong recovery in the post-pandemic world. This is not without risks of course, but we like the risk-to-reward.\nBottom Line\nAMC has for a long time withheld rent payments, but with its increasingly likely survival and strong expected recovery in movie-going, we expect rent payments to soon resume, and this should benefit its landlords.\nThe point here is that you don't need to take crazy risks to profit from AMC's recent saga. Its landlords will indirectly benefit from it, and yet, they remain priced at much more reasonable valuations, which we expect to increase as their market sentiment recover.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MAC":0.9,"EPR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/119845492"}
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