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2021-06-22
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Analysis: Investors focus on central bank speakers after extreme market moves<blockquote>分析：市场极端走势后投资者关注央行发言人</blockquote>
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Data is also due on housing and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.</p><p><blockquote>投资者现在正在期待美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)将于美国东部时间周二下午2点（格林威治标准时间1800）在国会发表讲话，以及其他几位美联储主要官员将在本周露面。房地产数据和美联储首选的通胀指标也将公布。</blockquote></p><p> \"I expect Powell will try to reverse some of the damage last week's Fed meeting did,\" said Tom Graff, head of fixed income at Brown Advisory. \"I don't think they intended to communicate such a hawkish message.\"</p><p><blockquote>Brown Advisory固定收益主管Tom Graff表示：“我预计鲍威尔将试图扭转上周美联储会议造成的一些损害。”“我不认为他们有意传达如此鹰派的信息。”</blockquote></p><p> Graff pointed to the yield curve on Monday \"steepening a little which might show the market is expecting a little reversal.\"</p><p><blockquote>格拉夫指出，周一收益率曲线“略有陡峭，这可能表明市场预计会出现小幅逆转。”</blockquote></p><p> In prepared remarks from Powell released by the Fed late Monday afternoon ahead of the his congressional hearing, the Fed chairman said he regards the current jump in inflation, in fact, as likely to fade.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周一下午晚些时候在国会听证会之前发布了鲍威尔准备好的讲话，这位美联储主席表示，他认为当前的通胀飙升实际上可能会消退。</blockquote></p><p> \"I think that this is just a continuation of what they said last week that things are improving, things are getting better but we're not there yet, and I think that's what this speaks to,\" said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut.</p><p><blockquote>高级投资组合经理罗伯特·帕夫利克(Robert Pavlik)表示：“我认为这只是他们上周所说的情况正在改善，情况正在变得更好，但我们还没有到那一步，我认为这就是问题所在。”康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德的达科他财富公司经理。</blockquote></p><p> REFLATION TRADE IN DANGER?</p><p><blockquote>通货再膨胀贸易面临危险？</blockquote></p><p> At stake is the market's view on whether the Fed has grown hawkish enough to endanger the so-called reflation trade, a bet on a powerful U.S. growth revival that has over the last several months helped boost prices for shares of economically sensitive companies, while weighing on the dollar and lifting yields. Some of those trades unwound last week.</p><p><blockquote>利害攸关的是市场对美联储是否变得足够鹰派以危及所谓的通货再膨胀交易的看法。通货再膨胀交易是对美国经济增长强劲复苏的押注，过去几个月帮助提振了对经济敏感的公司的股价，同时打压美元并提高收益率。其中一些交易上周平仓。</blockquote></p><p> \"We saw big drama playing out in some of the reflation trades,\" said Thanos Bardas, co-head of global investment-grade fixed income at Neuberger Berman.</p><p><blockquote>路博迈(Neuberger Berman)全球投资级固定收益联席主管萨诺斯·巴尔达斯(Thanos Bardas)表示：“我们看到一些通货再膨胀交易中上演了大戏。”</blockquote></p><p> \"The market over-reaction was pretty evident,\" he said, adding that he expects cooler heads to prevail this week.</p><p><blockquote>“市场的过度反应相当明显，”他说，并补充说，他预计本周将出现冷静的头脑。</blockquote></p><p> Others also saw a reversal of some of those positions likely. Analysts at TD Securities said the yield curve flattening had been \"extreme.\"</p><p><blockquote>其他人也认为其中一些头寸可能会逆转。道明证券分析师表示，收益率曲线趋平已经“极端”。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve flattens when shorter-dated rates, which are more sensitive to interest-rate policy, move faster than longer-dated rates, indicating investors believe monetary policy could tighten before the economy has fully recovered from the coronavirus recession.</p><p><blockquote>当对利率政策更敏感的短期利率比长期利率变动更快时，收益率曲线就会变平，这表明投资者认为货币政策可能会在经济从冠状病毒衰退中完全复苏之前收紧。</blockquote></p><p> \"This past week showed crowded investor positioning for a steepening curve can cause the boat to flip over as flattening can occur quickly on any disinflationary developments,\" said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist, John Hancock Investment Management.</p><p><blockquote>约翰·汉考克投资管理公司联席首席投资策略师马特·米斯金表示：“过去一周表明，拥挤的投资者对陡峭曲线的定位可能会导致船倾覆，因为任何通货紧缩的发展都可能很快出现平坦化。”</blockquote></p><p> The Cboe Volatility Index, an options based measure of expectations for stock market gyrations, fell on Monday after touching a 4-week high earlier in the session. Meanwhile, the Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility Index was at a two-week high, while the MOVE index, a bond market volatility gauge was at a two-month high.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数是一种基于期权的股市波动预期指标，在盘中早些时候触及4周高点后，周一下跌。与此同时，德意志银行货币波动率指数处于两周高点，而衡量债券市场波动率的MOVE指数则处于两个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> The parade of Fed speakers began on Monday morning, with two regional officials saying that a faster withdrawal from the central bank's bond purchase program could give it more leeway in deciding when to raise interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储发言人的游行从周一早上开始，两名地区官员表示，更快地退出央行的债券购买计划可能会让其在决定何时加息时有更多回旋余地。</blockquote></p><p> Other speakers this week include Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester, who leans hawkish. [FED/DIARY]</p><p><blockquote>本周的其他发言人包括克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长洛雷塔·梅斯特，她倾向于鹰派。[进食/日记]</blockquote></p><p> Some investors were looking at the week as an opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者将本周视为一个机会。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are telling folks if you have a 12-month outlook that we would be looking at this pullback as an opportunity to enter the value trade,\" said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services in Atlanta, adding: \"It is a big week.\"</p><p><blockquote>亚特兰大Truist Advisory Services首席市场策略师基思·勒纳(Keith Lerner)表示：“我们告诉人们，如果你有12个月的前景，我们会将这次回调视为进入价值交易的机会。”这是重要的一周。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Analysis: Investors focus on central bank speakers after extreme market moves<blockquote>分析：市场极端走势后投资者关注央行发言人</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnalysis: Investors focus on central bank speakers after extreme market moves<blockquote>分析：市场极端走势后投资者关注央行发言人</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 13:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - With all eyes on the U.S. central bank this week, some investors are looking to a parade of Federal Reserve speakers to calm market volatility, saying the reaction to the Fed's June meeting was too extreme.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约6月11日电——本周所有人的目光都集中在美联储，一些投资者期待美联储发言人的游行来平息市场波动，称对美联储6月会议的反应过于极端。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed last week signaled a potentially tougher stance on inflation and shifted projections for its first two rate hikes into 2023, sparking a selloff in U.S. stocks, boosting the dollar and flattening the Treasury yield curve in its fastest re-shaping since March 2020, according to Citi analysts.</p><p><blockquote>据花旗分析师称，美联储上周暗示可能对通胀采取更强硬的立场，并将前两次加息的预测推迟到2023年，引发美股抛售，提振美元，并使美国国债收益率曲线走平，这是自2020年3月以来最快的重塑。</blockquote></p><p> However, those moves partially reversed on Monday as stocks rebounded and the dollar retreated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着股市反弹和美元回落，这些走势在周一部分逆转。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are now anticipating what message will come from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, due to speak before Congress on Tuesday at 2 pm ET (1800 GMT), as well as several other key Fed officials making appearances throughout the week. Data is also due on housing and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.</p><p><blockquote>投资者现在正在期待美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)将于美国东部时间周二下午2点（格林威治标准时间1800）在国会发表讲话，以及其他几位美联储主要官员将在本周露面。房地产数据和美联储首选的通胀指标也将公布。</blockquote></p><p> \"I expect Powell will try to reverse some of the damage last week's Fed meeting did,\" said Tom Graff, head of fixed income at Brown Advisory. \"I don't think they intended to communicate such a hawkish message.\"</p><p><blockquote>Brown Advisory固定收益主管Tom Graff表示：“我预计鲍威尔将试图扭转上周美联储会议造成的一些损害。”“我不认为他们有意传达如此鹰派的信息。”</blockquote></p><p> Graff pointed to the yield curve on Monday \"steepening a little which might show the market is expecting a little reversal.\"</p><p><blockquote>格拉夫指出，周一收益率曲线“略有陡峭，这可能表明市场预计会出现小幅逆转。”</blockquote></p><p> In prepared remarks from Powell released by the Fed late Monday afternoon ahead of the his congressional hearing, the Fed chairman said he regards the current jump in inflation, in fact, as likely to fade.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周一下午晚些时候在国会听证会之前发布了鲍威尔准备好的讲话，这位美联储主席表示，他认为当前的通胀飙升实际上可能会消退。</blockquote></p><p> \"I think that this is just a continuation of what they said last week that things are improving, things are getting better but we're not there yet, and I think that's what this speaks to,\" said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut.</p><p><blockquote>高级投资组合经理罗伯特·帕夫利克(Robert Pavlik)表示：“我认为这只是他们上周所说的情况正在改善，情况正在变得更好，但我们还没有到那一步，我认为这就是问题所在。”康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德的达科他财富公司经理。</blockquote></p><p> REFLATION TRADE IN DANGER?</p><p><blockquote>通货再膨胀贸易面临危险？</blockquote></p><p> At stake is the market's view on whether the Fed has grown hawkish enough to endanger the so-called reflation trade, a bet on a powerful U.S. growth revival that has over the last several months helped boost prices for shares of economically sensitive companies, while weighing on the dollar and lifting yields. Some of those trades unwound last week.</p><p><blockquote>利害攸关的是市场对美联储是否变得足够鹰派以危及所谓的通货再膨胀交易的看法。通货再膨胀交易是对美国经济增长强劲复苏的押注，过去几个月帮助提振了对经济敏感的公司的股价，同时打压美元并提高收益率。其中一些交易上周平仓。</blockquote></p><p> \"We saw big drama playing out in some of the reflation trades,\" said Thanos Bardas, co-head of global investment-grade fixed income at Neuberger Berman.</p><p><blockquote>路博迈(Neuberger Berman)全球投资级固定收益联席主管萨诺斯·巴尔达斯(Thanos Bardas)表示：“我们看到一些通货再膨胀交易中上演了大戏。”</blockquote></p><p> \"The market over-reaction was pretty evident,\" he said, adding that he expects cooler heads to prevail this week.</p><p><blockquote>“市场的过度反应相当明显，”他说，并补充说，他预计本周将出现冷静的头脑。</blockquote></p><p> Others also saw a reversal of some of those positions likely. Analysts at TD Securities said the yield curve flattening had been \"extreme.\"</p><p><blockquote>其他人也认为其中一些头寸可能会逆转。道明证券分析师表示，收益率曲线趋平已经“极端”。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve flattens when shorter-dated rates, which are more sensitive to interest-rate policy, move faster than longer-dated rates, indicating investors believe monetary policy could tighten before the economy has fully recovered from the coronavirus recession.</p><p><blockquote>当对利率政策更敏感的短期利率比长期利率变动更快时，收益率曲线就会变平，这表明投资者认为货币政策可能会在经济从冠状病毒衰退中完全复苏之前收紧。</blockquote></p><p> \"This past week showed crowded investor positioning for a steepening curve can cause the boat to flip over as flattening can occur quickly on any disinflationary developments,\" said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist, John Hancock Investment Management.</p><p><blockquote>约翰·汉考克投资管理公司联席首席投资策略师马特·米斯金表示：“过去一周表明，拥挤的投资者对陡峭曲线的定位可能会导致船倾覆，因为任何通货紧缩的发展都可能很快出现平坦化。”</blockquote></p><p> The Cboe Volatility Index, an options based measure of expectations for stock market gyrations, fell on Monday after touching a 4-week high earlier in the session. Meanwhile, the Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility Index was at a two-week high, while the MOVE index, a bond market volatility gauge was at a two-month high.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数是一种基于期权的股市波动预期指标，在盘中早些时候触及4周高点后，周一下跌。与此同时，德意志银行货币波动率指数处于两周高点，而衡量债券市场波动率的MOVE指数则处于两个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> The parade of Fed speakers began on Monday morning, with two regional officials saying that a faster withdrawal from the central bank's bond purchase program could give it more leeway in deciding when to raise interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储发言人的游行从周一早上开始，两名地区官员表示，更快地退出央行的债券购买计划可能会让其在决定何时加息时有更多回旋余地。</blockquote></p><p> Other speakers this week include Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester, who leans hawkish. [FED/DIARY]</p><p><blockquote>本周的其他发言人包括克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长洛雷塔·梅斯特，她倾向于鹰派。[进食/日记]</blockquote></p><p> Some investors were looking at the week as an opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者将本周视为一个机会。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are telling folks if you have a 12-month outlook that we would be looking at this pullback as an opportunity to enter the value trade,\" said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services in Atlanta, adding: \"It is a big week.\"</p><p><blockquote>亚特兰大Truist Advisory Services首席市场策略师基思·勒纳(Keith Lerner)表示：“我们告诉人们，如果你有12个月的前景，我们会将这次回调视为进入价值交易的机会。”这是重要的一周。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-investors-focus-central-bank-051623971.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-investors-focus-central-bank-051623971.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160989283","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - With all eyes on the U.S. central bank this week, some investors are looking to a parade of Federal Reserve speakers to calm market volatility, saying the reaction to the Fed's June meeting was too extreme.\nThe Fed last week signaled a potentially tougher stance on inflation and shifted projections for its first two rate hikes into 2023, sparking a selloff in U.S. stocks, boosting the dollar and flattening the Treasury yield curve in its fastest re-shaping since March 2020, according to Citi analysts.\nHowever, those moves partially reversed on Monday as stocks rebounded and the dollar retreated.\nInvestors are now anticipating what message will come from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, due to speak before Congress on Tuesday at 2 pm ET (1800 GMT), as well as several other key Fed officials making appearances throughout the week. Data is also due on housing and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.\n\"I expect Powell will try to reverse some of the damage last week's Fed meeting did,\" said Tom Graff, head of fixed income at Brown Advisory. \"I don't think they intended to communicate such a hawkish message.\"\nGraff pointed to the yield curve on Monday \"steepening a little which might show the market is expecting a little reversal.\"\nIn prepared remarks from Powell released by the Fed late Monday afternoon ahead of the his congressional hearing, the Fed chairman said he regards the current jump in inflation, in fact, as likely to fade.\n\"I think that this is just a continuation of what they said last week that things are improving, things are getting better but we're not there yet, and I think that's what this speaks to,\" said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut.\nREFLATION TRADE IN DANGER?\nAt stake is the market's view on whether the Fed has grown hawkish enough to endanger the so-called reflation trade, a bet on a powerful U.S. growth revival that has over the last several months helped boost prices for shares of economically sensitive companies, while weighing on the dollar and lifting yields. Some of those trades unwound last week.\n\"We saw big drama playing out in some of the reflation trades,\" said Thanos Bardas, co-head of global investment-grade fixed income at Neuberger Berman.\n\"The market over-reaction was pretty evident,\" he said, adding that he expects cooler heads to prevail this week.\nOthers also saw a reversal of some of those positions likely. Analysts at TD Securities said the yield curve flattening had been \"extreme.\"\nThe yield curve flattens when shorter-dated rates, which are more sensitive to interest-rate policy, move faster than longer-dated rates, indicating investors believe monetary policy could tighten before the economy has fully recovered from the coronavirus recession.\n\"This past week showed crowded investor positioning for a steepening curve can cause the boat to flip over as flattening can occur quickly on any disinflationary developments,\" said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist, John Hancock Investment Management.\nThe Cboe Volatility Index, an options based measure of expectations for stock market gyrations, fell on Monday after touching a 4-week high earlier in the session. Meanwhile, the Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility Index was at a two-week high, while the MOVE index, a bond market volatility gauge was at a two-month high.\nThe parade of Fed speakers began on Monday morning, with two regional officials saying that a faster withdrawal from the central bank's bond purchase program could give it more leeway in deciding when to raise interest rates.\nOther speakers this week include Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester, who leans hawkish. [FED/DIARY]\nSome investors were looking at the week as an opportunity.\n\"We are telling folks if you have a 12-month outlook that we would be looking at this pullback as an opportunity to enter the value trade,\" said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services in Atlanta, adding: \"It is a big week.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":20,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/120779548"}
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