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2021-06-28
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BlackBerry Revenue Struggle Continues<blockquote>黑莓收入困境仍在继续</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":127701492,"tweetId":"127701492","gmtCreate":1624867607816,"gmtModify":1633947758578,"author":{"id":3572428216042029,"idStr":"3572428216042029","authorId":3572428216042029,"authorIdStr":"3572428216042029","name":"4080220a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>🙌</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>🙌</p></body></html>","text":"🙌","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127701492","repostId":1114821094,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114821094","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624866948,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114821094?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 15:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BlackBerry Revenue Struggle Continues<blockquote>黑莓收入困境仍在继续</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114821094","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWhile top line beats, core business basically stagnating.\nOperating losses don't seem to be","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>While top line beats, core business basically stagnating.</li> <li>Operating losses don't seem to be going away anytime soon.</li> <li>Recent rally won't hold if stock valued on fundamentals.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb0094dfdedbde038d5b19e46b477f1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"597\"><span>Guirong Hao/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>虽然营收有所增长，但核心业务基本停滞不前。</li><li>运营亏损似乎不会很快消失。</li><li>如果股票根据基本面估值，最近的反弹就不会持续。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>郝桂荣/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After the bell last Thursday, we received fiscal Q1 earnings results from BlackBerry (BB). While the company's shares have rallied at times recently, thanks to the retail trading mania, results have been rather poor. For the first quarter of its fiscal 2022 year, BlackBerry announced its lowest three-month revenue number under CEO John Chen. If this name loses the reddit fans that have propped up the stock, shares are likely to head lower as results just aren't there yet.</p><p><blockquote>上周四盘后，我们收到了黑莓(BB)的第一季度财报。尽管由于零售交易狂热，该公司的股价最近有时会上涨，但业绩却相当糟糕。在2022财年第一季度，黑莓公布了首席执行官陈志强领导下的最低三个月收入数据。如果这个名字失去了支撑该股的reddit粉丝，那么由于业绩尚未公布，股价可能会走低。</blockquote></p><p> If you remember the company's previous earnings report, management discussed back in late March that it had entered negotiations for a potential sale of its patent portfolio. Thus, the revenue forecast for the Licensing segment was essentially reduced for the year, with the following commentary from management on that earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>如果你还记得该公司之前的收益报告，管理层早在三月底就讨论过，它已就可能出售其专利组合进行谈判。因此，本年度许可部门的收入预测大幅下调，管理层对该盈利看涨期权的评论如下：</blockquote></p><p> However, appreciating that it will be useful to have an outlook for modeling purpose, the most conservative scenario in which sales, we modeled that sales does not happen or does not complete, full year licensing revenue will be in the region of $100 million. In this scenario, we assume that negotiation and regulatory review continue for the first half and therefore we expect revenue to be limited in the range of maybe $10 million to $15 million per quarter. For the quarter, total revenues of $174 million came in about $3 million ahead of Street estimates. However, the composition of the revenue generated was not what many were hoping for. Licensing actually came in at $24 million, much higher than what estimates called for. As management stated on the conference call, some business came in earlier than expected. Just like many recent quarters that we've seen, the pull-forward in this segment made the overall quarter look less bad, and without this extra business, the top line would have easily missed estimates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，认识到对建模目的进行展望将是有用的，在最保守的情况下，我们建模销售没有发生或没有完成，全年许可收入将在1亿美元左右。在这种情况下，我们假设谈判和监管审查将在上半年继续进行，因此我们预计收入将限制在每季度1000万至1500万美元的范围内。该季度总收入为1.74亿美元，比华尔街预期高出约300万美元。然而，所产生收入的构成并不是许多人所希望的。许可费实际上为2400万美元，远高于预期。正如管理层在电话会议上所说，一些业务比预期更早进入。就像我们最近看到的许多季度一样，这一细分市场的拉动使整个季度看起来不那么糟糕，如果没有这项额外的业务，营收很容易低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> That revenue upside meant that the newly called Cyber Security and IoT segments only represented $150 million. The total on those two business lines was up a paltry $2 million over the prior year period, and down $18 million from Q1 2020. On the call, management said it expects cyber security revenue to come in at the low end of its previous guidance range for the full fiscal year. A good portion of BlackBerry's key metrics also weakened over the prior year period, as detailed in the graphic below.</p><p><blockquote>这一收入增长意味着新的网络安全和物联网部门仅占1.5亿美元。这两个业务线的总额比去年同期增加了微不足道的200万美元，比2020年第一季度减少了1800万美元。在看涨期权上，管理层表示，预计整个财年的网络安全收入将处于之前指导范围的低端。黑莓的大部分关键指标也较去年同期有所减弱，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ba0e5502df8810761def4deddeb053\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"145\"><span>(Source: Q1 2021 earnings release, linked above)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：2021年第一季度收益发布，链接见上文）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The year-over-year numbers certainly aren't good, with annual recurring revenue down by $23 million. The dollar-based net retention rate has also dipped by 7 percentage points. Supporters will talk about the growth in the QNX backlog, and BlackBerry management said in the earnings release that this was a 9% year-over-year increase. That seems to be what the graphic is saying, but take a look at what was said in previous press releases (bold emphasis added). The following statements make that year-over-year growth rate seem not true, that this is actually a 5 quarter increase, taking a good chunk of that growth rate away.</p><p><blockquote>同比数字当然不好，年度经常性收入下降了2300万美元。以美元计算的净保留率也下降了7个百分点。支持者将谈论QNX积压订单的增长，黑莓管理层在财报中表示，同比增长了9%。这似乎是图表所说的，但看看以前的新闻稿中所说的（加粗强调）。以下陈述使同比增长率看起来不真实，这实际上是5个季度的增长，带走了很大一部分增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Fiscal Q1 2021 Document,linked here: The Company's QNX royalty revenue backlog was approximately $450 million at <b>the beginning of the first quarterof fiscal 2021</b>. Recent QNX release,linked here: BlackBerry also announced that BlackBerry QNX royalty revenue backlog has increased to $490 million at the <b>end of its first quarter of fiscal year2022</b>. With the company's revenue base shrinking to a new low under this CEO, the rest of the income statement didn't look much better. Gross margins fell nearly 4 percentage points, while the operating loss excluding items jumped from $50 million to $62 million. The company matched Street non-GAAP loss estimates at a nickel per share. However, this was again due to a number of items that management excludes that are traditional expenses for companies like this, including stock-based compensation and intangibles amortization.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度财年文件，链接此处：该公司的QNX特许权使用费收入积压约为4.5亿美元<b>2021财年第一季度初</b>.最近的QNX版本，链接在这里：黑莓还宣布，黑莓QNX特许权使用费收入积压已增至4.9亿美元<b>2022财年第一季度末</b>在这位首席执行官的领导下，公司的收入基础萎缩至新低，损益表的其余部分看起来也好不到哪里去。毛利率下降了近4个百分点，而不包括项目的运营亏损从5000万美元跃升至6200万美元。该公司与华尔街非公认会计准则亏损预期相符，每股亏损5美分。然而，这又是由于管理层排除了许多项目，这些项目是此类公司的传统费用，包括基于股票的薪酬和无形资产摊销。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For the quarter, cash burn came in at $35 million, $3 million more than the year-ago period. The value of equity on the balance sheet dropped another $48 million, and there is a larger holding value of intangibles and goodwill combined than there is equity. Total deferred revenue dropped again from $294 million to $265 million, which will further impact the company's ability for the top line to grow moving forward. Billings were also down on a year-over-year and sequential basis.</p><p><blockquote>本季度现金消耗为3500万美元，比去年同期增加300万美元。资产负债表上的股权价值又下降了4800万美元，无形资产和商誉的持有价值总和大于股权。递延总收入再次从2.94亿美元下降至2.65亿美元，这将进一步影响公司未来营收增长的能力。账单也同比和环比下降。</blockquote></p><p> I mentioned in my previous article that the biggest argument against the name right now is valuation. I compared BlackBerry to IBM (IBM), which itself has had revenue troubles as it transitions its legacy businesses to more current ones. Even if BlackBerry were worth three times IBM on a price to sales basis, BlackBerry would be worth about $10.51 more than a year out. I don't see anything in last week's report that really changes that number, and one could argue my previous revenue growth hope for the following fiscal year now needs to come down a bit. The recent \"reddit rally\" has also pushed the name well above its key technical levels as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in red).</p><p><blockquote>我在上一篇文章中提到，目前反对这个名字的最大论点是估值。我将黑莓与IBM(IBM)进行了比较，后者在将其传统业务过渡到更现代的业务时也遇到了收入问题。即使黑莓的市销率是IBM的三倍，一年后黑莓的市值也会增加约10.51美元。我在上周的报告中没有看到任何真正改变这个数字的内容，有人可能会说我之前对下一财年收入增长的希望现在需要下降一点。最近的“reddit反弹”也将该名称推高至其关键技术水平之上，如下图所示（紫色为50天，红色为200天）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e0060206489ea2bfe405eae34646358\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\"><span>(Source: Yahoo! Finance)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：雅虎财经）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the end, last week's earnings report showed that the revenue struggles at BlackBerry have not subsided. Another licensing pull-forward helped the overall numbers look okay, but the core business is not doing well overall. Management reduced its guidance for both the Cyber Security and IoT segments, signaling that this latest turnaround will take longer than expected. If the stock cannot hold on to its reddit crowd base, shares will likely continue to pull back to where the valuation should realistically be.</p><p><blockquote>最终，上周的财报显示，黑莓的营收困境并未消退。另一次许可拉动帮助整体数字看起来不错，但核心业务整体表现不佳。管理层下调了对网络安全和物联网领域的指导，这表明最新的转变将比预期需要更长的时间。如果该股无法保住其reddit人群基础，股价可能会继续回落至实际估值水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BlackBerry Revenue Struggle Continues<blockquote>黑莓收入困境仍在继续</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlackBerry Revenue Struggle Continues<blockquote>黑莓收入困境仍在继续</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 15:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>While top line beats, core business basically stagnating.</li> <li>Operating losses don't seem to be going away anytime soon.</li> <li>Recent rally won't hold if stock valued on fundamentals.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb0094dfdedbde038d5b19e46b477f1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"597\"><span>Guirong Hao/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>虽然营收有所增长，但核心业务基本停滞不前。</li><li>运营亏损似乎不会很快消失。</li><li>如果股票根据基本面估值，最近的反弹就不会持续。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>郝桂荣/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After the bell last Thursday, we received fiscal Q1 earnings results from BlackBerry (BB). While the company's shares have rallied at times recently, thanks to the retail trading mania, results have been rather poor. For the first quarter of its fiscal 2022 year, BlackBerry announced its lowest three-month revenue number under CEO John Chen. If this name loses the reddit fans that have propped up the stock, shares are likely to head lower as results just aren't there yet.</p><p><blockquote>上周四盘后，我们收到了黑莓(BB)的第一季度财报。尽管由于零售交易狂热，该公司的股价最近有时会上涨，但业绩却相当糟糕。在2022财年第一季度，黑莓公布了首席执行官陈志强领导下的最低三个月收入数据。如果这个名字失去了支撑该股的reddit粉丝，那么由于业绩尚未公布，股价可能会走低。</blockquote></p><p> If you remember the company's previous earnings report, management discussed back in late March that it had entered negotiations for a potential sale of its patent portfolio. Thus, the revenue forecast for the Licensing segment was essentially reduced for the year, with the following commentary from management on that earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>如果你还记得该公司之前的收益报告，管理层早在三月底就讨论过，它已就可能出售其专利组合进行谈判。因此，本年度许可部门的收入预测大幅下调，管理层对该盈利看涨期权的评论如下：</blockquote></p><p> However, appreciating that it will be useful to have an outlook for modeling purpose, the most conservative scenario in which sales, we modeled that sales does not happen or does not complete, full year licensing revenue will be in the region of $100 million. In this scenario, we assume that negotiation and regulatory review continue for the first half and therefore we expect revenue to be limited in the range of maybe $10 million to $15 million per quarter. For the quarter, total revenues of $174 million came in about $3 million ahead of Street estimates. However, the composition of the revenue generated was not what many were hoping for. Licensing actually came in at $24 million, much higher than what estimates called for. As management stated on the conference call, some business came in earlier than expected. Just like many recent quarters that we've seen, the pull-forward in this segment made the overall quarter look less bad, and without this extra business, the top line would have easily missed estimates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，认识到对建模目的进行展望将是有用的，在最保守的情况下，我们建模销售没有发生或没有完成，全年许可收入将在1亿美元左右。在这种情况下，我们假设谈判和监管审查将在上半年继续进行，因此我们预计收入将限制在每季度1000万至1500万美元的范围内。该季度总收入为1.74亿美元，比华尔街预期高出约300万美元。然而，所产生收入的构成并不是许多人所希望的。许可费实际上为2400万美元，远高于预期。正如管理层在电话会议上所说，一些业务比预期更早进入。就像我们最近看到的许多季度一样，这一细分市场的拉动使整个季度看起来不那么糟糕，如果没有这项额外的业务，营收很容易低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> That revenue upside meant that the newly called Cyber Security and IoT segments only represented $150 million. The total on those two business lines was up a paltry $2 million over the prior year period, and down $18 million from Q1 2020. On the call, management said it expects cyber security revenue to come in at the low end of its previous guidance range for the full fiscal year. A good portion of BlackBerry's key metrics also weakened over the prior year period, as detailed in the graphic below.</p><p><blockquote>这一收入增长意味着新的网络安全和物联网部门仅占1.5亿美元。这两个业务线的总额比去年同期增加了微不足道的200万美元，比2020年第一季度减少了1800万美元。在看涨期权上，管理层表示，预计整个财年的网络安全收入将处于之前指导范围的低端。黑莓的大部分关键指标也较去年同期有所减弱，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ba0e5502df8810761def4deddeb053\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"145\"><span>(Source: Q1 2021 earnings release, linked above)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：2021年第一季度收益发布，链接见上文）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The year-over-year numbers certainly aren't good, with annual recurring revenue down by $23 million. The dollar-based net retention rate has also dipped by 7 percentage points. Supporters will talk about the growth in the QNX backlog, and BlackBerry management said in the earnings release that this was a 9% year-over-year increase. That seems to be what the graphic is saying, but take a look at what was said in previous press releases (bold emphasis added). The following statements make that year-over-year growth rate seem not true, that this is actually a 5 quarter increase, taking a good chunk of that growth rate away.</p><p><blockquote>同比数字当然不好，年度经常性收入下降了2300万美元。以美元计算的净保留率也下降了7个百分点。支持者将谈论QNX积压订单的增长，黑莓管理层在财报中表示，同比增长了9%。这似乎是图表所说的，但看看以前的新闻稿中所说的（加粗强调）。以下陈述使同比增长率看起来不真实，这实际上是5个季度的增长，带走了很大一部分增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Fiscal Q1 2021 Document,linked here: The Company's QNX royalty revenue backlog was approximately $450 million at <b>the beginning of the first quarterof fiscal 2021</b>. Recent QNX release,linked here: BlackBerry also announced that BlackBerry QNX royalty revenue backlog has increased to $490 million at the <b>end of its first quarter of fiscal year2022</b>. With the company's revenue base shrinking to a new low under this CEO, the rest of the income statement didn't look much better. Gross margins fell nearly 4 percentage points, while the operating loss excluding items jumped from $50 million to $62 million. The company matched Street non-GAAP loss estimates at a nickel per share. However, this was again due to a number of items that management excludes that are traditional expenses for companies like this, including stock-based compensation and intangibles amortization.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度财年文件，链接此处：该公司的QNX特许权使用费收入积压约为4.5亿美元<b>2021财年第一季度初</b>.最近的QNX版本，链接在这里：黑莓还宣布，黑莓QNX特许权使用费收入积压已增至4.9亿美元<b>2022财年第一季度末</b>在这位首席执行官的领导下，公司的收入基础萎缩至新低，损益表的其余部分看起来也好不到哪里去。毛利率下降了近4个百分点，而不包括项目的运营亏损从5000万美元跃升至6200万美元。该公司与华尔街非公认会计准则亏损预期相符，每股亏损5美分。然而，这又是由于管理层排除了许多项目，这些项目是此类公司的传统费用，包括基于股票的薪酬和无形资产摊销。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For the quarter, cash burn came in at $35 million, $3 million more than the year-ago period. The value of equity on the balance sheet dropped another $48 million, and there is a larger holding value of intangibles and goodwill combined than there is equity. Total deferred revenue dropped again from $294 million to $265 million, which will further impact the company's ability for the top line to grow moving forward. Billings were also down on a year-over-year and sequential basis.</p><p><blockquote>本季度现金消耗为3500万美元，比去年同期增加300万美元。资产负债表上的股权价值又下降了4800万美元，无形资产和商誉的持有价值总和大于股权。递延总收入再次从2.94亿美元下降至2.65亿美元，这将进一步影响公司未来营收增长的能力。账单也同比和环比下降。</blockquote></p><p> I mentioned in my previous article that the biggest argument against the name right now is valuation. I compared BlackBerry to IBM (IBM), which itself has had revenue troubles as it transitions its legacy businesses to more current ones. Even if BlackBerry were worth three times IBM on a price to sales basis, BlackBerry would be worth about $10.51 more than a year out. I don't see anything in last week's report that really changes that number, and one could argue my previous revenue growth hope for the following fiscal year now needs to come down a bit. The recent \"reddit rally\" has also pushed the name well above its key technical levels as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in red).</p><p><blockquote>我在上一篇文章中提到，目前反对这个名字的最大论点是估值。我将黑莓与IBM(IBM)进行了比较，后者在将其传统业务过渡到更现代的业务时也遇到了收入问题。即使黑莓的市销率是IBM的三倍，一年后黑莓的市值也会增加约10.51美元。我在上周的报告中没有看到任何真正改变这个数字的内容，有人可能会说我之前对下一财年收入增长的希望现在需要下降一点。最近的“reddit反弹”也将该名称推高至其关键技术水平之上，如下图所示（紫色为50天，红色为200天）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e0060206489ea2bfe405eae34646358\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\"><span>(Source: Yahoo! Finance)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：雅虎财经）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the end, last week's earnings report showed that the revenue struggles at BlackBerry have not subsided. Another licensing pull-forward helped the overall numbers look okay, but the core business is not doing well overall. Management reduced its guidance for both the Cyber Security and IoT segments, signaling that this latest turnaround will take longer than expected. If the stock cannot hold on to its reddit crowd base, shares will likely continue to pull back to where the valuation should realistically be.</p><p><blockquote>最终，上周的财报显示，黑莓的营收困境并未消退。另一次许可拉动帮助整体数字看起来不错，但核心业务整体表现不佳。管理层下调了对网络安全和物联网领域的指导，这表明最新的转变将比预期需要更长的时间。如果该股无法保住其reddit人群基础，股价可能会继续回落至实际估值水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436862-blackberry-revenue-struggle-continues\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BB":"黑莓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436862-blackberry-revenue-struggle-continues","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114821094","content_text":"Summary\n\nWhile top line beats, core business basically stagnating.\nOperating losses don't seem to be going away anytime soon.\nRecent rally won't hold if stock valued on fundamentals.\n\nGuirong Hao/iStock via Getty Images\nAfter the bell last Thursday, we received fiscal Q1 earnings results from BlackBerry (BB). While the company's shares have rallied at times recently, thanks to the retail trading mania, results have been rather poor. For the first quarter of its fiscal 2022 year, BlackBerry announced its lowest three-month revenue number under CEO John Chen. If this name loses the reddit fans that have propped up the stock, shares are likely to head lower as results just aren't there yet.\nIf you remember the company's previous earnings report, management discussed back in late March that it had entered negotiations for a potential sale of its patent portfolio. Thus, the revenue forecast for the Licensing segment was essentially reduced for the year, with the following commentary from management on that earnings call:\n\n However, appreciating that it will be useful to have an outlook for modeling purpose, the most conservative scenario in which sales, we modeled that sales does not happen or does not complete, full year licensing revenue will be in the region of $100 million. In this scenario, we assume that negotiation and regulatory review continue for the first half and therefore we expect revenue to be limited in the range of maybe $10 million to $15 million per quarter.\n\nFor the quarter, total revenues of $174 million came in about $3 million ahead of Street estimates. However, the composition of the revenue generated was not what many were hoping for. Licensing actually came in at $24 million, much higher than what estimates called for. As management stated on the conference call, some business came in earlier than expected. Just like many recent quarters that we've seen, the pull-forward in this segment made the overall quarter look less bad, and without this extra business, the top line would have easily missed estimates.\nThat revenue upside meant that the newly called Cyber Security and IoT segments only represented $150 million. The total on those two business lines was up a paltry $2 million over the prior year period, and down $18 million from Q1 2020. On the call, management said it expects cyber security revenue to come in at the low end of its previous guidance range for the full fiscal year. A good portion of BlackBerry's key metrics also weakened over the prior year period, as detailed in the graphic below.\n(Source: Q1 2021 earnings release, linked above)\nThe year-over-year numbers certainly aren't good, with annual recurring revenue down by $23 million. The dollar-based net retention rate has also dipped by 7 percentage points. Supporters will talk about the growth in the QNX backlog, and BlackBerry management said in the earnings release that this was a 9% year-over-year increase. That seems to be what the graphic is saying, but take a look at what was said in previous press releases (bold emphasis added). The following statements make that year-over-year growth rate seem not true, that this is actually a 5 quarter increase, taking a good chunk of that growth rate away.\n\n Fiscal Q1 2021 Document,linked here:\n\n\n The Company's QNX royalty revenue backlog was approximately $450 million at \n the beginning of the first quarterof fiscal 2021.\n\n\n Recent QNX release,linked here:\n\n\n BlackBerry also announced that BlackBerry QNX royalty revenue backlog has increased to $490 million at the \n end of its first quarter of fiscal year2022.\n\nWith the company's revenue base shrinking to a new low under this CEO, the rest of the income statement didn't look much better. Gross margins fell nearly 4 percentage points, while the operating loss excluding items jumped from $50 million to $62 million. The company matched Street non-GAAP loss estimates at a nickel per share. However, this was again due to a number of items that management excludes that are traditional expenses for companies like this, including stock-based compensation and intangibles amortization.\nFor the quarter, cash burn came in at $35 million, $3 million more than the year-ago period. The value of equity on the balance sheet dropped another $48 million, and there is a larger holding value of intangibles and goodwill combined than there is equity. Total deferred revenue dropped again from $294 million to $265 million, which will further impact the company's ability for the top line to grow moving forward. Billings were also down on a year-over-year and sequential basis.\nI mentioned in my previous article that the biggest argument against the name right now is valuation. I compared BlackBerry to IBM (IBM), which itself has had revenue troubles as it transitions its legacy businesses to more current ones. Even if BlackBerry were worth three times IBM on a price to sales basis, BlackBerry would be worth about $10.51 more than a year out. I don't see anything in last week's report that really changes that number, and one could argue my previous revenue growth hope for the following fiscal year now needs to come down a bit. The recent \"reddit rally\" has also pushed the name well above its key technical levels as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in red).\n(Source: Yahoo! Finance)\nIn the end, last week's earnings report showed that the revenue struggles at BlackBerry have not subsided. Another licensing pull-forward helped the overall numbers look okay, but the core business is not doing well overall. Management reduced its guidance for both the Cyber Security and IoT segments, signaling that this latest turnaround will take longer than expected. If the stock cannot hold on to its reddit crowd base, shares will likely continue to pull back to where the valuation should realistically be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1833,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/127701492"}
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