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2021-06-24

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Fed's Kaplan Sparks Late-Day Dump On Rate-Hike, Taper Talk<blockquote>美联储卡普兰在加息和缩减规模谈判上引发了尾盘倾销</blockquote>

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UNTIL this happened...<blockquote>当小盘股做他们疯狂的事情时；道琼斯指数、标准普尔指数和纳斯达克指数全天都在非常窄的范围内下跌……直到这件事发生……</blockquote> The U.S. economy will likely meet the Federal Reserve’s threshold for tapering its asset purchases sooner than people think,said Dallas Fed President&nbsp;Robert Kaplan, who has penciled in an interest-rate increase next year. “As we make substantial further progress, which I think will happen sooner than people expect -- sooner rather than later -- and we’re weathering the pandemic, I think we’d be far better off, from a risk-management point of view, beginning to adjust these purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities,” Kaplan said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg News. “If we do these purchases longer than might be necessary, for me it actually may reduce our flexibility in adjusting rates,” Kaplan said. “I’d rather start tapering, assuming we meet our conditions, sooner rather than laterso that we have more flexibility in deciding what we want to do on rates down the road.” And the selling began sending The Dow, S&amp;P and Nasdaq into the red for the day...<blockquote>美国经济可能会比人们想象的更快达到美联储缩减资产购买规模的门槛、达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰表示，他已预计明年将加息。“随着我们取得实质性的进一步进展，我认为这将比人们预期的更快发生--迟早会发生--而且我们正在经受住大流行病的考验，我认为从风险管理的角度来看，我们最好开始调整这些国债和抵押贷款支持证券的购买、卡普兰周三在接受彭博新闻采访时说。“卡普兰说：”如果我们购买这些商品的时间超过了可能需要的时间，对我来说，这实际上可能会降低我们调整费率的灵活性。“假设我们满足条件，我宁愿尽早开始缩减规模这样一来，我们就可以更灵活地决定未来在利率方面要做什么。”抛售开始导致道琼斯指数、标准普尔指数和纳斯达克指数全天下跌……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff6694249b9bc71839f52b6b4221e57\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"761\"><blockquote></blockquote> Since just before the FOMC statement last week, The Dow and Small Caps are in the red and Nasdaq the big outperformer...<blockquote>就在上周联邦公开市场委员会发表声明之前，道琼斯指数和小盘股指数都处于亏损状态，纳斯达克表现优异……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9ab62307fd701a7ab69ea9d772ed6ea\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"667\"><blockquote></blockquote> VIX fell to a 14 handle intraday...<blockquote>VIX盘中跌至14点……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cceb65d19453c8bd0cec9f673a2a99\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><blockquote></blockquote> This is how quiet it was...<blockquote>这是多么安静……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07bd1728d85768e3bc4ec5e53ee63fe0\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"533\">Source: Bloomberg<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社</blockquote> Treasury yields also went nowhere fast, eventually rising 1-2bps across the curve on the day (10Y now unchanged from pre-FOMC)...<blockquote>美国国债收益率也没有很快上升，最终当天上涨了1-2个基点（10年期国债目前与FOMC之前持平）……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85fc3af45e9ec12cc01327005d47223c\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"516\">Source: Bloomberg<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社</blockquote> And while the dollar chopped around, it ended spectacularly unch...<blockquote>当美元大幅下跌时，它的结局却非常糟糕……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/002248d3c60d4616effa79b22bcbba39\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"514\">Source: Bloomberg<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社</blockquote> There were some fireworks of note.<blockquote>有一些值得注意的烟花。</blockquote> Fannie &amp; Freddie were destroyed by SCOTUS ruling...<blockquote>房利美和房地美被苏格兰法院的裁决摧毁了……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d7353fdc764bafc58ecf791e51d0d0d\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"533\">Source: Bloomberg<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社</blockquote> Crypto ended very marginally higher after giving back some overnight gains. Bitcoin briefly touched $35k before sliding...<blockquote>加密货币在回吐隔夜涨幅后小幅走高。比特币在下滑前短暂触及3.5万美元……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4348d98ab45cf55f88e39c2ccbbb76eb\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"517\">Source: Bloomberg<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社</blockquote> WTI whipped higher and lower on OPEC+ production, inventories, and weak data...<blockquote>由于 OPEC+ 产量、库存和疲软数据，WTI 涨跌不一……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43b39fa8873078835dc92bf743a297bd\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"785\"><blockquote></blockquote> Gold followed a similar trajectory - ending unch...<blockquote>黄金遵循类似的轨迹——结束unch...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e11d5501a7275e2733649b66a1a2b514\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"786\">Finally,&nbsp;we note that the real measure of market fear - implied correlation - has collapsed, finally reverting to pre-COVID levels...<blockquote>最后，我们注意到市场恐惧的真正衡量标准——隐含相关性——已经崩溃，最终恢复到新冠疫情爆发前的水平...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6258cfa0f1351cffb809304fb9436c80\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"530\">Source: Bloomberg<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社</blockquote> The implied correlation,a topic we have discussed in the past at length, quantifies the difference between the index's volatility and the summation of the underlying volatility of the names in an index. In a nutshell,the implied correlation measures the relative demand for instant liquid index macro protection relative to its underlying names(a slower less liquid way to protect yourself). Thehigher the correlation, the greater the risk of a very significant systemic downside move(since correlations tend to approach 1 when systemically bad events occur).<blockquote>隐含相关性，我们过去详细讨论过的一个主题是量化指数波动性与指数中名称的潜在波动性之和之间的差异。简而言之，隐含相关性衡量即时液体指数宏观保护相对于其基础名称的相对需求（一种更慢、更少液体的保护自己的方法）。这个相关性越高，发生非常重大的系统性下行的风险就越大（因为当系统性不良事件发生时，相关性往往接近1）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd8ff388a778bddfd2c365dc4c45b55\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"506\">Source: Bloomberg<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社</blockquote> By implicitly measuring the market's demand for this relative protection - and its implicit downside risk sentiment -implied correlation is much more applicable as a measure of investor sentiment... which right now is about as complacent as its ever been.<blockquote>通过隐含地衡量市场对这种相对保护的需求及其隐含的下行风险情绪隐含相关性更适合作为投资者情绪的衡量标准……现在几乎和以前一样自满。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed's Kaplan Sparks Late-Day Dump On Rate-Hike, Taper Talk<blockquote>美联储卡普兰在加息和缩减规模谈判上引发了尾盘倾销</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed's Kaplan Sparks Late-Day Dump On Rate-Hike, Taper Talk<blockquote>美联储卡普兰在加息和缩减规模谈判上引发了尾盘倾销</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-06-24 14:48\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nUgly PMIs (Services recovery collapsed), and even uglier housing data suggest all is not well under the surface of the \"excellent\" recovery andthat \"hope\"-filled gap between 'soft' and hard data is set to slump again...<blockquote>丑陋的 PMI（服务业复苏崩溃），甚至更丑陋的住房数据表明，在“出色”复苏的表面之下，一切都不好“软”数据和硬数据之间充满“希望”的差距将再次下滑...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cda4e45787d67eefabc511b96083584\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\">Source: Bloomberg<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社</blockquote> But markets just shrugged it off as the echoes of Powell's dovish promises bounced around their frontal cortexes.<blockquote>但当鲍威尔鸽派承诺的回声在他们的额叶皮层中回荡时，市场却对此置之不理。</blockquote> While Small Caps did their manic thing; The Dow, S&amp;P, and Nasdaq all trod water all day in a very narrow range... UNTIL this happened...<blockquote>当小盘股做他们疯狂的事情时；道琼斯指数、标准普尔指数和纳斯达克指数全天都在非常窄的范围内下跌……直到这件事发生……</blockquote> The U.S. economy will likely meet the Federal Reserve’s threshold for tapering its asset purchases sooner than people think,said Dallas Fed President&nbsp;Robert Kaplan, who has penciled in an interest-rate increase next year. “As we make substantial further progress, which I think will happen sooner than people expect -- sooner rather than later -- and we’re weathering the pandemic, I think we’d be far better off, from a risk-management point of view, beginning to adjust these purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities,” Kaplan said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg News. “If we do these purchases longer than might be necessary, for me it actually may reduce our flexibility in adjusting rates,” Kaplan said. “I’d rather start tapering, assuming we meet our conditions, sooner rather than laterso that we have more flexibility in deciding what we want to do on rates down the road.” And the selling began sending The Dow, S&amp;P and Nasdaq into the red for the day...<blockquote>美国经济可能会比人们想象的更快达到美联储缩减资产购买规模的门槛、达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰表示，他已预计明年将加息。“随着我们取得实质性的进一步进展，我认为这将比人们预期的更快发生--迟早会发生--而且我们正在经受住大流行病的考验，我认为从风险管理的角度来看，我们最好开始调整这些国债和抵押贷款支持证券的购买、卡普兰周三在接受彭博新闻采访时说。“卡普兰说：”如果我们购买这些商品的时间超过了可能需要的时间，对我来说，这实际上可能会降低我们调整费率的灵活性。“假设我们满足条件，我宁愿尽早开始缩减规模这样一来，我们就可以更灵活地决定未来在利率方面要做什么。”抛售开始导致道琼斯指数、标准普尔指数和纳斯达克指数全天下跌……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff6694249b9bc71839f52b6b4221e57\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"761\"><blockquote></blockquote> Since just before the FOMC statement last week, The Dow and Small Caps are in the red and Nasdaq the big outperformer...<blockquote>就在上周联邦公开市场委员会发表声明之前，道琼斯指数和小盘股指数都处于亏损状态，纳斯达克表现优异……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9ab62307fd701a7ab69ea9d772ed6ea\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"667\"><blockquote></blockquote> VIX fell to a 14 handle intraday...<blockquote>VIX盘中跌至14点……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cceb65d19453c8bd0cec9f673a2a99\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><blockquote></blockquote> This is how quiet it was...<blockquote>这是多么安静……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07bd1728d85768e3bc4ec5e53ee63fe0\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"533\">Source: Bloomberg<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社</blockquote> Treasury yields also went nowhere fast, eventually rising 1-2bps across the curve on the day (10Y now unchanged from pre-FOMC)...<blockquote>美国国债收益率也没有很快上升，最终当天上涨了1-2个基点（10年期国债目前与FOMC之前持平）……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85fc3af45e9ec12cc01327005d47223c\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"516\">Source: Bloomberg<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社</blockquote> And while the dollar chopped around, it ended spectacularly unch...<blockquote>当美元大幅下跌时，它的结局却非常糟糕……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/002248d3c60d4616effa79b22bcbba39\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"514\">Source: Bloomberg<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社</blockquote> There were some fireworks of note.<blockquote>有一些值得注意的烟花。</blockquote> Fannie &amp; Freddie were destroyed by SCOTUS ruling...<blockquote>房利美和房地美被苏格兰法院的裁决摧毁了……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d7353fdc764bafc58ecf791e51d0d0d\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"533\">Source: Bloomberg<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社</blockquote> Crypto ended very marginally higher after giving back some overnight gains. Bitcoin briefly touched $35k before sliding...<blockquote>加密货币在回吐隔夜涨幅后小幅走高。比特币在下滑前短暂触及3.5万美元……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4348d98ab45cf55f88e39c2ccbbb76eb\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"517\">Source: Bloomberg<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社</blockquote> WTI whipped higher and lower on OPEC+ production, inventories, and weak data...<blockquote>由于 OPEC+ 产量、库存和疲软数据，WTI 涨跌不一……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43b39fa8873078835dc92bf743a297bd\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"785\"><blockquote></blockquote> Gold followed a similar trajectory - ending unch...<blockquote>黄金遵循类似的轨迹——结束unch...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e11d5501a7275e2733649b66a1a2b514\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"786\">Finally,&nbsp;we note that the real measure of market fear - implied correlation - has collapsed, finally reverting to pre-COVID levels...<blockquote>最后，我们注意到市场恐惧的真正衡量标准——隐含相关性——已经崩溃，最终恢复到新冠疫情爆发前的水平...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6258cfa0f1351cffb809304fb9436c80\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"530\">Source: Bloomberg<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社</blockquote> The implied correlation,a topic we have discussed in the past at length, quantifies the difference between the index's volatility and the summation of the underlying volatility of the names in an index. In a nutshell,the implied correlation measures the relative demand for instant liquid index macro protection relative to its underlying names(a slower less liquid way to protect yourself). Thehigher the correlation, the greater the risk of a very significant systemic downside move(since correlations tend to approach 1 when systemically bad events occur).<blockquote>隐含相关性，我们过去详细讨论过的一个主题是量化指数波动性与指数中名称的潜在波动性之和之间的差异。简而言之，隐含相关性衡量即时液体指数宏观保护相对于其基础名称的相对需求（一种更慢、更少液体的保护自己的方法）。这个相关性越高，发生非常重大的系统性下行的风险就越大（因为当系统性不良事件发生时，相关性往往接近1）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd8ff388a778bddfd2c365dc4c45b55\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"506\">Source: Bloomberg<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社</blockquote> By implicitly measuring the market's demand for this relative protection - and its implicit downside risk sentiment -implied correlation is much more applicable as a measure of investor sentiment... which right now is about as complacent as its ever been.<blockquote>通过隐含地衡量市场对这种相对保护的需求及其隐含的下行风险情绪隐含相关性更适合作为投资者情绪的衡量标准……现在几乎和以前一样自满。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-dollar-shrug-dismal-data-oddly-quiet-day\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-dollar-shrug-dismal-data-oddly-quiet-day","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149718989","content_text":"Ugly PMIs (Services recovery collapsed), and even uglier housing data suggest all is not well under the surface of the \"excellent\" recovery andthat \"hope\"-filled gap between 'soft' and hard data is set to slump again...\nSource: Bloomberg\nBut markets just shrugged it off as the echoes of Powell's dovish promises bounced around their frontal cortexes.\nWhile Small Caps did their manic thing; The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all trod water all day in a very narrow range... UNTIL this happened...\n\nThe U.S. economy will likely meet the Federal Reserve’s threshold for tapering its asset purchases sooner than people think,said Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, who has penciled in an interest-rate increase next year.\n\n\n “As we make substantial further progress, which I think will happen sooner than people expect -- sooner rather than later -- and we’re weathering the pandemic, I think\n we’d be far better off, from a risk-management point of view, beginning to adjust these purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities,” Kaplan said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg News.\n\n\n “If we do these purchases longer than might be necessary, for me it actually may reduce our flexibility in adjusting rates,” Kaplan said.\n\n\n“I’d rather start tapering, assuming we meet our conditions, sooner rather than laterso that we have more flexibility in deciding what we want to do on rates down the road.”\n\nAnd the selling began sending The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq into the red for the day...\n\nSince just before the FOMC statement last week, The Dow and Small Caps are in the red and Nasdaq the big outperformer...\n\nVIX fell to a 14 handle intraday...\n\nThis is how quiet it was...\nSource: Bloomberg\nTreasury yields also went nowhere fast, eventually rising 1-2bps across the curve on the day (10Y now unchanged from pre-FOMC)...\nSource: Bloomberg\nAnd while the dollar chopped around, it ended spectacularly unch...\nSource: Bloomberg\nThere were some fireworks of note.\nFannie & Freddie were destroyed by SCOTUS ruling...\nSource: Bloomberg\nCrypto ended very marginally higher after giving back some overnight gains. Bitcoin briefly touched $35k before sliding...\nSource: Bloomberg\nWTI whipped higher and lower on OPEC+ production, inventories, and weak data...\n\nGold followed a similar trajectory - ending unch...\nFinally, we note that the real measure of market fear - implied correlation - has collapsed, finally reverting to pre-COVID levels...\nSource: Bloomberg\nThe implied correlation,a topic we have discussed in the past at length, quantifies the difference between the index's volatility and the summation of the underlying volatility of the names in an index. In a nutshell,the implied correlation measures the relative demand for instant liquid index macro protection relative to its underlying names(a slower less liquid way to protect yourself). Thehigher the correlation, the greater the risk of a very significant systemic downside move(since correlations tend to approach 1 when systemically bad events occur).\nSource: Bloomberg\nBy implicitly measuring the market's demand for this relative protection - and its implicit downside risk sentiment -implied correlation is much more applicable as a measure of investor sentiment... which right now is about as complacent as its ever been.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2086,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/128229215"}