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2021-06-24

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BoE Keeps Rates, QE Unchanged; Won't Tighten Until "Clear Evidence Of Progress" Toward Inflation Goal<blockquote>英国央行维持利率和量化宽松不变；在通胀目标取得“明确进展”之前不会收紧政策</blockquote>

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Simple, like the Fed it said that while inflation may rise above 3%, it will be transitory, to wit: \"CPI inflation is expected to pick up further above the target, owing primarily to developments in energy and other commodity prices,and is likely to exceed 3% for a temporary period\"which means June output is expected to be around 2.5% below its pre-Covid level in the final quarter of 2019. For context, the previous inflation peak was projected to be 2.5%, so yet another significant reflationary rethink.<blockquote>那么，随着英国和其他地方一样通胀飙升，英国央行是如何将评级转向紧缩的呢？很简单，就像美联储表示，虽然通胀可能会升至3%以上，但这将是暂时的，即：“预计消费物价指数通胀将进一步回升至目标之上，主要是由于能源和其他商品价格的发展，并有可能在一段时间内超过3%\"这意味着2019年最后一个季度6月份的产出预计将比新冠疫情前的水平低2.5%左右。就背景而言，之前的通胀峰值预计为2.5%，因此又一次重大的再通胀反思。</blockquote> And once said \"temporary period\" ends, all shall be well, however nobody knows when that will be, just as nobody knows what the\"clear evidence of significant progress\"toward achieving the 2% inflation target is that the BOE needs before tightening policy.<blockquote>一旦所谓的“临时时期”结束，一切都会好起来的，然而没有人知道那将是什么时候，就像没有人知道什么时候会发生一样。“取得重大进展的明确证据”英国央行在收紧政策之前需要实现2%的通胀目标。</blockquote> And while the BOE won't issue a fresh round of forecasts until August, they did revise up their second-quarter projection by around 1.5 percentage points from their May projection of 4.3%.<blockquote>尽管英国央行要到8月份才会发布新一轮预测，但他们确实将第二季度预测从5月份预测的4.3%上调了约1.5个百分点。</blockquote> Some more details from thefull statement:<blockquote>完整声明中的更多详细信息：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Committee’s expectation is that the direct impact of rises in commodity prices on CPI inflation will be transitory.</li> <li>Output in a number of sectors is now around pre-Covid levels, although it remains materially below in others</li> <li>Developments in global GDP growth have been somewhat stronger than anticipated, particularly in advanced economies</li> <li>The Committee does not intend to tighten monetary policy at least until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.</li> <li>Spare capacity in the economy was expected to be eliminated as activity picked up, and there was expected to be a temporary period of excess demand, before demand and supply returned broadly to balance.</li> <li>Policy should both lean strongly against downside risks to the outlook and ensure that the recovery was not undermined by a premature tightening in monetary conditions.</li> <li>Most members judged that the conditions set out in the MPC’s existing policy guidance, which were in any case necessary but not sufficient conditions for any future tightening in monetary policy, were not met.</li> <li>Bank staff had revised up their expectations for 2021 Q2 GDP growth to 5.5%, from 4.25% at the&nbsp; time of the May Report. That would be consistent with output in Q2 being less than 4% below its 2019 Q4 level, and projected output in June around 2.5% lower.</li> <li>It was possible that a stronger path for demand would close the output gap somewhat sooner than had previously been expected.</li> </ul> The market response was muted as the decision appeared to come on the dovish side: the pound reversed modest gains as short-term positioning over a hawkish surprise is unwound. Gilts rise, with 10-year yield down by 3 basis points to 0.75%.<blockquote><ul><li>委员会预计，大宗商品价格上涨对CPI通胀的直接影响将是暂时的。</li><li>许多行业的产出目前已接近新冠疫情爆发前的水平，但其他行业的产出仍大幅低于</li><li>全球国内生产总值增长的发展略强于预期，特别是在发达经济体</li><li>委员会不打算收紧货币政策，至少在有明确证据表明在消除闲置产能和可持续实现2%通胀目标方面正在取得重大进展之前。</li><li>随着经济活动的回升，经济中的闲置产能预计将被消除，在供需基本恢复平衡之前，预计会有一段时间的需求过剩。</li><li>政策既应强烈反对前景的下行风险，又应确保复苏不会因货币条件过早收紧而受到损害。</li><li>大多数成员认为，货币政策委员会现有政策指导中规定的条件没有得到满足，这些条件无论如何都是未来货币政策收紧的必要条件，但不是充分条件。</li><li>银行工作人员将2021年Q2 GDP增长预期从5月份报告时的4.25%上调至5.5%。这与第二季度产量比2019年第四季度水平低不到4%以及6月份预计产量比2019年第四季度水平低2.5%左右一致。</li><li>需求走强可能会比之前预期的更快地缩小产出缺口。</li></ul>由于这一决定似乎是鸽派的，市场反应平淡：随着鹰派意外的短期头寸解除，英镑扭转了小幅上涨。英国国债上涨，10年期国债收益率下跌3个基点至0.75%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7010feb093662e50703d0e073ffbf258\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"242\"><blockquote></blockquote> According to Bloomberg, in the longer term, and until a shift comes, the pound may stay under pressure especially as it trades below its 21-weekly moving average, a momentum-defining indicator since the pandemic started.<blockquote>据彭博社报道，从长远来看，在转变到来之前，英镑可能会继续面临压力，特别是当其交易价格低于21周移动平均线时，这是自大流行开始以来的动量定义指标。</blockquote> At the same time, EUR/GBP rallied as stops were triggered given the transitory-inflation narrative remains and cable dips toward the $1.39 handle. According to Bloomberg,a 15bps rate hike by the BOE is now pushed back to Aug 2022 from June 2022 just before the decision.It remains to be seen whether this is more interest to trade the pound afresh or is it all down to short-term position rebalancing.<blockquote>与此同时，鉴于暂时性通胀叙事依然存在，且电缆跌至1.39美元，欧元/英镑因止损而上涨。据彭博社报道，就在做出决定之前，英国央行加息15个基点的时间现已从2022年6月推迟至2022年8月。这是否是重新交易英镑的更大兴趣，还是完全归因于短期头寸再平衡，还有待观察。</blockquote> Bottom line: today's somewhat dovish statements puts a lot of attention on to the August meeting when we’ll get a full set of new forecasts and learn more about the BOE's thinking; we should also have a clearer sense of how the virus situation is developing once more people are vaccinated.<blockquote>一句话：今天有些鸽派的声明让人们对8月份的会议产生了很多关注，届时我们将获得全套新预测并了解更多有关英国央行想法的信息；一旦更多的人接种疫苗，我们也应该对病毒的情况如何发展有更清晰的认识。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BoE Keeps Rates, QE Unchanged; Won't Tighten Until \"Clear Evidence Of Progress\" Toward Inflation Goal<blockquote>英国央行维持利率和量化宽松不变；在通胀目标取得“明确进展”之前不会收紧政策</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoE Keeps Rates, QE Unchanged; Won't Tighten Until \"Clear Evidence Of Progress\" Toward Inflation Goal<blockquote>英国央行维持利率和量化宽松不变；在通胀目标取得“明确进展”之前不会收紧政策</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-06-24 19:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWith central banks riding a hawkish wave in recent months, eyes turned toward the Bank of England and its latest monetary policy decision this morning, which however did not surprise as the central bank voted unanimously to keep interest rates at 0.1% and by a majority of 8-1 to maintain the amount of quantitative easing at £895bn, with outgoing chief economist Haldane again dissenting and voting to reduce the asset purchase target in his final vote before leaving the Bank of England.<blockquote>随着各国央行近几个月来乘着鹰派浪潮，人们的目光转向了英国央行及其今天上午的最新货币政策决定，但这并不令人意外，因为央行一致投票将利率维持在0.1%，并以8比1的多数将量化宽松规模维持在8950亿英镑，即将离任的首席经济学家霍尔丹再次表示反对，并在离开英国央行前的最后一次投票中投票决定降低资产购买目标。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee2372b645665ef729732f7accedac5e\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"538\"><blockquote></blockquote> So with inflation surging in the UK as everywhere else, how did the BOE deflect calls to tighten? Simple, like the Fed it said that while inflation may rise above 3%, it will be transitory, to wit: \"CPI inflation is expected to pick up further above the target, owing primarily to developments in energy and other commodity prices,and is likely to exceed 3% for a temporary period\"which means June output is expected to be around 2.5% below its pre-Covid level in the final quarter of 2019. For context, the previous inflation peak was projected to be 2.5%, so yet another significant reflationary rethink.<blockquote>那么，随着英国和其他地方一样通胀飙升，英国央行是如何将评级转向紧缩的呢？很简单，就像美联储表示，虽然通胀可能会升至3%以上，但这将是暂时的，即：“预计消费物价指数通胀将进一步回升至目标之上，主要是由于能源和其他商品价格的发展，并有可能在一段时间内超过3%\"这意味着2019年最后一个季度6月份的产出预计将比新冠疫情前的水平低2.5%左右。就背景而言，之前的通胀峰值预计为2.5%，因此又一次重大的再通胀反思。</blockquote> And once said \"temporary period\" ends, all shall be well, however nobody knows when that will be, just as nobody knows what the\"clear evidence of significant progress\"toward achieving the 2% inflation target is that the BOE needs before tightening policy.<blockquote>一旦所谓的“临时时期”结束，一切都会好起来的，然而没有人知道那将是什么时候，就像没有人知道什么时候会发生一样。“取得重大进展的明确证据”英国央行在收紧政策之前需要实现2%的通胀目标。</blockquote> And while the BOE won't issue a fresh round of forecasts until August, they did revise up their second-quarter projection by around 1.5 percentage points from their May projection of 4.3%.<blockquote>尽管英国央行要到8月份才会发布新一轮预测，但他们确实将第二季度预测从5月份预测的4.3%上调了约1.5个百分点。</blockquote> Some more details from thefull statement:<blockquote>完整声明中的更多详细信息：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Committee’s expectation is that the direct impact of rises in commodity prices on CPI inflation will be transitory.</li> <li>Output in a number of sectors is now around pre-Covid levels, although it remains materially below in others</li> <li>Developments in global GDP growth have been somewhat stronger than anticipated, particularly in advanced economies</li> <li>The Committee does not intend to tighten monetary policy at least until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.</li> <li>Spare capacity in the economy was expected to be eliminated as activity picked up, and there was expected to be a temporary period of excess demand, before demand and supply returned broadly to balance.</li> <li>Policy should both lean strongly against downside risks to the outlook and ensure that the recovery was not undermined by a premature tightening in monetary conditions.</li> <li>Most members judged that the conditions set out in the MPC’s existing policy guidance, which were in any case necessary but not sufficient conditions for any future tightening in monetary policy, were not met.</li> <li>Bank staff had revised up their expectations for 2021 Q2 GDP growth to 5.5%, from 4.25% at the&nbsp; time of the May Report. That would be consistent with output in Q2 being less than 4% below its 2019 Q4 level, and projected output in June around 2.5% lower.</li> <li>It was possible that a stronger path for demand would close the output gap somewhat sooner than had previously been expected.</li> </ul> The market response was muted as the decision appeared to come on the dovish side: the pound reversed modest gains as short-term positioning over a hawkish surprise is unwound. Gilts rise, with 10-year yield down by 3 basis points to 0.75%.<blockquote><ul><li>委员会预计，大宗商品价格上涨对CPI通胀的直接影响将是暂时的。</li><li>许多行业的产出目前已接近新冠疫情爆发前的水平，但其他行业的产出仍大幅低于</li><li>全球国内生产总值增长的发展略强于预期，特别是在发达经济体</li><li>委员会不打算收紧货币政策，至少在有明确证据表明在消除闲置产能和可持续实现2%通胀目标方面正在取得重大进展之前。</li><li>随着经济活动的回升，经济中的闲置产能预计将被消除，在供需基本恢复平衡之前，预计会有一段时间的需求过剩。</li><li>政策既应强烈反对前景的下行风险，又应确保复苏不会因货币条件过早收紧而受到损害。</li><li>大多数成员认为，货币政策委员会现有政策指导中规定的条件没有得到满足，这些条件无论如何都是未来货币政策收紧的必要条件，但不是充分条件。</li><li>银行工作人员将2021年Q2 GDP增长预期从5月份报告时的4.25%上调至5.5%。这与第二季度产量比2019年第四季度水平低不到4%以及6月份预计产量比2019年第四季度水平低2.5%左右一致。</li><li>需求走强可能会比之前预期的更快地缩小产出缺口。</li></ul>由于这一决定似乎是鸽派的，市场反应平淡：随着鹰派意外的短期头寸解除，英镑扭转了小幅上涨。英国国债上涨，10年期国债收益率下跌3个基点至0.75%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7010feb093662e50703d0e073ffbf258\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"242\"><blockquote></blockquote> According to Bloomberg, in the longer term, and until a shift comes, the pound may stay under pressure especially as it trades below its 21-weekly moving average, a momentum-defining indicator since the pandemic started.<blockquote>据彭博社报道，从长远来看，在转变到来之前，英镑可能会继续面临压力，特别是当其交易价格低于21周移动平均线时，这是自大流行开始以来的动量定义指标。</blockquote> At the same time, EUR/GBP rallied as stops were triggered given the transitory-inflation narrative remains and cable dips toward the $1.39 handle. According to Bloomberg,a 15bps rate hike by the BOE is now pushed back to Aug 2022 from June 2022 just before the decision.It remains to be seen whether this is more interest to trade the pound afresh or is it all down to short-term position rebalancing.<blockquote>与此同时，鉴于暂时性通胀叙事依然存在，且电缆跌至1.39美元，欧元/英镑因止损而上涨。据彭博社报道，就在做出决定之前，英国央行加息15个基点的时间现已从2022年6月推迟至2022年8月。这是否是重新交易英镑的更大兴趣，还是完全归因于短期头寸再平衡，还有待观察。</blockquote> Bottom line: today's somewhat dovish statements puts a lot of attention on to the August meeting when we’ll get a full set of new forecasts and learn more about the BOE's thinking; we should also have a clearer sense of how the virus situation is developing once more people are vaccinated.<blockquote>一句话：今天有些鸽派的声明让人们对8月份的会议产生了很多关注，届时我们将获得全套新预测并了解更多有关英国央行想法的信息；一旦更多的人接种疫苗，我们也应该对病毒的情况如何发展有更清晰的认识。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boe-keeps-rates-qe-unchanged-wont-tighten-until-clear-evidence-progress-toward-inflation\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boe-keeps-rates-qe-unchanged-wont-tighten-until-clear-evidence-progress-toward-inflation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191442444","content_text":"With central banks riding a hawkish wave in recent months, eyes turned toward the Bank of England and its latest monetary policy decision this morning, which however did not surprise as the central bank voted unanimously to keep interest rates at 0.1% and by a majority of 8-1 to maintain the amount of quantitative easing at £895bn, with outgoing chief economist Haldane again dissenting and voting to reduce the asset purchase target in his final vote before leaving the Bank of England.\n\nSo with inflation surging in the UK as everywhere else, how did the BOE deflect calls to tighten? Simple, like the Fed it said that while inflation may rise above 3%, it will be transitory, to wit: \"CPI inflation is expected to pick up further above the target, owing primarily to developments in energy and other commodity prices,and is likely to exceed 3% for a temporary period\"which means June output is expected to be around 2.5% below its pre-Covid level in the final quarter of 2019. For context, the previous inflation peak was projected to be 2.5%, so yet another significant reflationary rethink.\nAnd once said \"temporary period\" ends, all shall be well, however nobody knows when that will be, just as nobody knows what the\"clear evidence of significant progress\"toward achieving the 2% inflation target is that the BOE needs before tightening policy.\nAnd while the BOE won't issue a fresh round of forecasts until August, they did revise up their second-quarter projection by around 1.5 percentage points from their May projection of 4.3%.\nSome more details from thefull statement:\n\nCommittee’s expectation is that the direct impact of rises in commodity prices on CPI inflation will be transitory.\nOutput in a number of sectors is now around pre-Covid levels, although it remains materially below in others\nDevelopments in global GDP growth have been somewhat stronger than anticipated, particularly in advanced economies\nThe Committee does not intend to tighten monetary policy at least until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.\nSpare capacity in the economy was expected to be eliminated as activity picked up, and there was expected to be a temporary period of excess demand, before demand and supply returned broadly to balance.\nPolicy should both lean strongly against downside risks to the outlook and ensure that the recovery was not undermined by a premature tightening in monetary conditions.\nMost members judged that the conditions set out in the MPC’s existing policy guidance, which were in any case necessary but not sufficient conditions for any future tightening in monetary policy, were not met.\nBank staff had revised up their expectations for 2021 Q2 GDP growth to 5.5%, from 4.25% at the  time of the May Report. That would be consistent with output in Q2 being less than 4% below its 2019 Q4 level, and projected output in June around 2.5% lower.\nIt was possible that a stronger path for demand would close the output gap somewhat sooner than had previously been expected.\n\nThe market response was muted as the decision appeared to come on the dovish side: the pound reversed modest gains as short-term positioning over a hawkish surprise is unwound. Gilts rise, with 10-year yield down by 3 basis points to 0.75%.\n\nAccording to Bloomberg, in the longer term, and until a shift comes, the pound may stay under pressure especially as it trades below its 21-weekly moving average, a momentum-defining indicator since the pandemic started.\nAt the same time, EUR/GBP rallied as stops were triggered given the transitory-inflation narrative remains and cable dips toward the $1.39 handle. According to Bloomberg,a 15bps rate hike by the BOE is now pushed back to Aug 2022 from June 2022 just before the decision.It remains to be seen whether this is more interest to trade the pound afresh or is it all down to short-term position rebalancing.\nBottom line: today's somewhat dovish statements puts a lot of attention on to the August meeting when we’ll get a full set of new forecasts and learn more about the BOE's thinking; we should also have a clearer sense of how the virus situation is developing once more people are vaccinated.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/128778743"}