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2021-06-24

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Fed’s Kaplan Sees Hike in 2022, Taper Starting Sooner<blockquote>美联储卡普兰预计2022年加息，更早开始缩减规模</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":128927537,"tweetId":"128927537","gmtCreate":1624498898629,"gmtModify":1631888612955,"author":{"id":3584092741735483,"idStr":"3584092741735483","authorId":3584092741735483,"authorIdStr":"3584092741735483","name":"Watercloset","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d1d0d3c3e687a60e8491fa5601ea354","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like and comment [Smile]&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like and comment [Smile]&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Like and comment [Smile]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128927537","repostId":1123789211,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123789211","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624495583,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123789211?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 08:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed’s Kaplan Sees Hike in 2022, Taper Starting Sooner<blockquote>美联储卡普兰预计2022年加息，更早开始缩减规模</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123789211","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will likely meet the Federal Reserve’s threshold for tapering its as","content":"(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will likely meet the Federal Reserve’s threshold for tapering its asset purchases sooner than people think, said Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, who has penciled in an interest-rate increase next year.<blockquote>（彭博社）——达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰表示，美国经济可能会比人们想象的更快达到美联储缩减资产购买的门槛，他预计明年将加息。</blockquote> “As we make substantial further progress, which I think will happen sooner than people expect -- sooner rather than later -- and we’re weathering the pandemic, I think we’d be far better off, from a risk-management point of view, beginning to adjust these purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities,” Kaplan said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg News.<blockquote>“随着我们取得实质性的进一步进展，我认为这将比人们预期的更快发生——宜早不宜迟——而且我们正在度过这一流行病，我认为从风险管理的角度来看，我们的情况会好得多。”卡普兰周三在接受彭博新闻社采访时表示：“从角度来看，开始调整这些国债和抵押贷款支持证券的购买。”</blockquote> Kaplan says he’s forecasting rate liftoff in 2022 from its current setting near zero, as inflation surpasses the central bank’s 2% goal this year and next and unemployment dips below 4%. He declined to elaborate on his 2023 rate projection.<blockquote>卡普兰表示，他预计2022年利率将从目前接近零的水平上升，因为今明两年通胀率将超过央行2%的目标，失业率将降至4%以下。他拒绝详细说明2023年的利率预测。</blockquote> Fed officials moved up their rate estimates at the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The so-called dot plot, a graphical representation of each participant’s rate forecast, showed the median projection calling for two rate increases in 2023, versus none in March. While the median for next year still indicated no rate hike, seven of the 18 participants penciled in liftoff then.<blockquote>美联储官员在6月联邦公开市场委员会会议上上调了利率预期。所谓的点阵图是每个参与者利率预测的图形表示，显示了2023年加息两次的预测中值，而3月份没有加息。虽然明年的中位数仍然表明不会加息，但18名参与者中有7人预计会加息。</blockquote> Kaplan is joined in publicly declaring his 2022 liftoff projection by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and James Bullard, head of the St. Louis Fed.<blockquote>卡普兰与亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克和圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德一起公开宣布了他的2022年起飞预测。</blockquote> Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a press conference following the meeting, indicated that policy makers would start talking about tapering the $120 billion of monthly asset purchases at upcoming meetings. Starting the process sooner would leave officials with more flexibility on future rate increases, Kaplan argued.<blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的新闻发布会上表示，政策制定者将在即将举行的会议上开始讨论缩减每月1200亿美元的资产购买规模。卡普兰认为，尽快启动这一进程将使官员们在未来加息方面拥有更大的灵活性。</blockquote> “If we do these purchases longer than might be necessary, for me it actually may reduce our flexibility in adjusting rates,” Kaplan said. “I’d rather start tapering, assuming we meet our conditions, sooner rather than later so that we have more flexibility in deciding what we want to do on rates down the road.”<blockquote>卡普兰说：“如果我们进行这些购买的时间超过了必要的时间，对我来说，实际上可能会降低我们调整利率的灵活性。”“假设我们满足条件，我宁愿尽早开始缩减规模，这样我们就可以更灵活地决定未来的利率措施。”</blockquote> Kaplan sees inflation of 3.4% this year and 2.4% next year. While some price pressures will moderate over the next six months, others may represent longer-term trends. Demand for semiconductors, for example, is likely to increase further as the transition to sustainable energy sources intensifies.<blockquote>卡普兰预计今年通胀率为3.4%，明年为2.4%。虽然一些价格压力将在未来六个月内缓解，但其他压力可能代表长期趋势。例如，随着向可持续能源过渡的加剧，对半导体的需求可能会进一步增加。</blockquote> But the current data environment, with swings that have been difficult for economists to accurately forecast, requires a “healthy dose of humility,” Kaplan said, echoing comments made by Powell last week.<blockquote>但卡普兰表示，当前的数据环境，经济学家很难准确预测波动，需要“适度的谦逊”，这呼应了鲍威尔上周的言论。</blockquote> Market participants saw the Fed’s more hawkish interest-rate forecasts as a way for the central bank to reaffirm its commitment to stable prices following two months of higher readings.<blockquote>市场参与者认为，美联储更加鹰派的利率预测是央行在连续两个月走高后重申其稳定物价承诺的一种方式。</blockquote> “I think it’s a good thing for the Fed to emphasize that we’re vigilant and we’re committed to anchoring inflation at an average of 2% and that we’re committed to anchoring inflation expectations in a manner that’s consistent with 2% inflation,” Kaplan said. “I think just emphasizing that is probably a healthy thing.”<blockquote>卡普兰说：“我认为美联储强调我们保持警惕，我们致力于将通胀锚定在平均2%，我们致力于以与2%通胀一致的方式锚定通胀预期，这是一件好事。”“我认为强调这一点可能是一件健康的事情。”</blockquote> The moves in Treasury markets following the Fed’s June meeting, with investors buying longer-dated debt instead of short-term bills, may take a few more weeks to wash out, Kaplan said.<blockquote>卡普兰表示，美联储6月会议后，美国国债市场的走势可能还需要几周时间才能消退，投资者购买长期债务而不是短期票据。</blockquote> While noting that a number of people have dropped out of the labor force due to early retirement, Kaplan is optimistic that the participation rate of workers aged 25 to 54 will improve, especially as schools reopen to in-person learning and women, who left the workforce in disproportionate numbers during the pandemic, return to work.<blockquote>虽然卡普兰指出，许多人因提前退休而退出了劳动力市场，但他乐观地认为，25至54岁工人的参与率将会提高，特别是随着学校重新开放面对面学习以及离开劳动力市场的女性重返工作岗位。疫情期间，劳动力数量不成比例。</blockquote> The U.S. labor market needs a “relentless,” multi-year effort in more widespread skills training, increased early-childhood education and access to wi-fi to create better long-term workforce trends, Kaplan said.<blockquote>卡普兰表示，美国劳动力市场需要在更广泛的技能培训、增加幼儿教育和wi-fi接入方面进行“不懈的”多年努力，以创造更好的长期劳动力趋势。</blockquote> “If your workforce growth is slowing or decelerating, you’ve got to try to improve worker adaptability and improve productivity, and education has got to be central to that,” Kaplan said.<blockquote>卡普兰说：“如果劳动力增长放缓或减速，你必须努力提高工人的适应能力并提高生产力，而教育必须成为其中的核心。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed’s Kaplan Sees Hike in 2022, Taper Starting Sooner<blockquote>美联储卡普兰预计2022年加息，更早开始缩减规模</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nfinance.yahoo2021-06-24 08:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will likely meet the Federal Reserve’s threshold for tapering its asset purchases sooner than people think, said Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, who has penciled in an interest-rate increase next year.<blockquote>（彭博社）——达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰表示，美国经济可能会比人们想象的更快达到美联储缩减资产购买的门槛，他预计明年将加息。</blockquote> “As we make substantial further progress, which I think will happen sooner than people expect -- sooner rather than later -- and we’re weathering the pandemic, I think we’d be far better off, from a risk-management point of view, beginning to adjust these purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities,” Kaplan said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg News.<blockquote>“随着我们取得实质性的进一步进展，我认为这将比人们预期的更快发生——宜早不宜迟——而且我们正在度过这一流行病，我认为从风险管理的角度来看，我们的情况会好得多。”卡普兰周三在接受彭博新闻社采访时表示：“从角度来看，开始调整这些国债和抵押贷款支持证券的购买。”</blockquote> Kaplan says he’s forecasting rate liftoff in 2022 from its current setting near zero, as inflation surpasses the central bank’s 2% goal this year and next and unemployment dips below 4%. He declined to elaborate on his 2023 rate projection.<blockquote>卡普兰表示，他预计2022年利率将从目前接近零的水平上升，因为今明两年通胀率将超过央行2%的目标，失业率将降至4%以下。他拒绝详细说明2023年的利率预测。</blockquote> Fed officials moved up their rate estimates at the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The so-called dot plot, a graphical representation of each participant’s rate forecast, showed the median projection calling for two rate increases in 2023, versus none in March. While the median for next year still indicated no rate hike, seven of the 18 participants penciled in liftoff then.<blockquote>美联储官员在6月联邦公开市场委员会会议上上调了利率预期。所谓的点阵图是每个参与者利率预测的图形表示，显示了2023年加息两次的预测中值，而3月份没有加息。虽然明年的中位数仍然表明不会加息，但18名参与者中有7人预计会加息。</blockquote> Kaplan is joined in publicly declaring his 2022 liftoff projection by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and James Bullard, head of the St. Louis Fed.<blockquote>卡普兰与亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克和圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德一起公开宣布了他的2022年起飞预测。</blockquote> Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a press conference following the meeting, indicated that policy makers would start talking about tapering the $120 billion of monthly asset purchases at upcoming meetings. Starting the process sooner would leave officials with more flexibility on future rate increases, Kaplan argued.<blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的新闻发布会上表示，政策制定者将在即将举行的会议上开始讨论缩减每月1200亿美元的资产购买规模。卡普兰认为，尽快启动这一进程将使官员们在未来加息方面拥有更大的灵活性。</blockquote> “If we do these purchases longer than might be necessary, for me it actually may reduce our flexibility in adjusting rates,” Kaplan said. “I’d rather start tapering, assuming we meet our conditions, sooner rather than later so that we have more flexibility in deciding what we want to do on rates down the road.”<blockquote>卡普兰说：“如果我们进行这些购买的时间超过了必要的时间，对我来说，实际上可能会降低我们调整利率的灵活性。”“假设我们满足条件，我宁愿尽早开始缩减规模，这样我们就可以更灵活地决定未来的利率措施。”</blockquote> Kaplan sees inflation of 3.4% this year and 2.4% next year. While some price pressures will moderate over the next six months, others may represent longer-term trends. Demand for semiconductors, for example, is likely to increase further as the transition to sustainable energy sources intensifies.<blockquote>卡普兰预计今年通胀率为3.4%，明年为2.4%。虽然一些价格压力将在未来六个月内缓解，但其他压力可能代表长期趋势。例如，随着向可持续能源过渡的加剧，对半导体的需求可能会进一步增加。</blockquote> But the current data environment, with swings that have been difficult for economists to accurately forecast, requires a “healthy dose of humility,” Kaplan said, echoing comments made by Powell last week.<blockquote>但卡普兰表示，当前的数据环境，经济学家很难准确预测波动，需要“适度的谦逊”，这呼应了鲍威尔上周的言论。</blockquote> Market participants saw the Fed’s more hawkish interest-rate forecasts as a way for the central bank to reaffirm its commitment to stable prices following two months of higher readings.<blockquote>市场参与者认为，美联储更加鹰派的利率预测是央行在连续两个月走高后重申其稳定物价承诺的一种方式。</blockquote> “I think it’s a good thing for the Fed to emphasize that we’re vigilant and we’re committed to anchoring inflation at an average of 2% and that we’re committed to anchoring inflation expectations in a manner that’s consistent with 2% inflation,” Kaplan said. “I think just emphasizing that is probably a healthy thing.”<blockquote>卡普兰说：“我认为美联储强调我们保持警惕，我们致力于将通胀锚定在平均2%，我们致力于以与2%通胀一致的方式锚定通胀预期，这是一件好事。”“我认为强调这一点可能是一件健康的事情。”</blockquote> The moves in Treasury markets following the Fed’s June meeting, with investors buying longer-dated debt instead of short-term bills, may take a few more weeks to wash out, Kaplan said.<blockquote>卡普兰表示，美联储6月会议后，美国国债市场的走势可能还需要几周时间才能消退，投资者购买长期债务而不是短期票据。</blockquote> While noting that a number of people have dropped out of the labor force due to early retirement, Kaplan is optimistic that the participation rate of workers aged 25 to 54 will improve, especially as schools reopen to in-person learning and women, who left the workforce in disproportionate numbers during the pandemic, return to work.<blockquote>虽然卡普兰指出，许多人因提前退休而退出了劳动力市场，但他乐观地认为，25至54岁工人的参与率将会提高，特别是随着学校重新开放面对面学习以及离开劳动力市场的女性重返工作岗位。疫情期间，劳动力数量不成比例。</blockquote> The U.S. labor market needs a “relentless,” multi-year effort in more widespread skills training, increased early-childhood education and access to wi-fi to create better long-term workforce trends, Kaplan said.<blockquote>卡普兰表示，美国劳动力市场需要在更广泛的技能培训、增加幼儿教育和wi-fi接入方面进行“不懈的”多年努力，以创造更好的长期劳动力趋势。</blockquote> “If your workforce growth is slowing or decelerating, you’ve got to try to improve worker adaptability and improve productivity, and education has got to be central to that,” Kaplan said.<blockquote>卡普兰说：“如果劳动力增长放缓或减速，你必须努力提高工人的适应能力并提高生产力，而教育必须成为其中的核心。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-kaplan-sees-hike-2022-193617178.html\">finance.yahoo</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-kaplan-sees-hike-2022-193617178.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123789211","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will likely meet the Federal Reserve’s threshold for tapering its asset purchases sooner than people think, said Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, who has penciled in an interest-rate increase next year.\n“As we make substantial further progress, which I think will happen sooner than people expect -- sooner rather than later -- and we’re weathering the pandemic, I think we’d be far better off, from a risk-management point of view, beginning to adjust these purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities,” Kaplan said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg News.\nKaplan says he’s forecasting rate liftoff in 2022 from its current setting near zero, as inflation surpasses the central bank’s 2% goal this year and next and unemployment dips below 4%. He declined to elaborate on his 2023 rate projection.\nFed officials moved up their rate estimates at the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The so-called dot plot, a graphical representation of each participant’s rate forecast, showed the median projection calling for two rate increases in 2023, versus none in March. While the median for next year still indicated no rate hike, seven of the 18 participants penciled in liftoff then.\nKaplan is joined in publicly declaring his 2022 liftoff projection by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and James Bullard, head of the St. Louis Fed.\nFed Chair Jerome Powell, in a press conference following the meeting, indicated that policy makers would start talking about tapering the $120 billion of monthly asset purchases at upcoming meetings. Starting the process sooner would leave officials with more flexibility on future rate increases, Kaplan argued.\n“If we do these purchases longer than might be necessary, for me it actually may reduce our flexibility in adjusting rates,” Kaplan said. “I’d rather start tapering, assuming we meet our conditions, sooner rather than later so that we have more flexibility in deciding what we want to do on rates down the road.”\nKaplan sees inflation of 3.4% this year and 2.4% next year. While some price pressures will moderate over the next six months, others may represent longer-term trends. Demand for semiconductors, for example, is likely to increase further as the transition to sustainable energy sources intensifies.\nBut the current data environment, with swings that have been difficult for economists to accurately forecast, requires a “healthy dose of humility,” Kaplan said, echoing comments made by Powell last week.\nMarket participants saw the Fed’s more hawkish interest-rate forecasts as a way for the central bank to reaffirm its commitment to stable prices following two months of higher readings.\n“I think it’s a good thing for the Fed to emphasize that we’re vigilant and we’re committed to anchoring inflation at an average of 2% and that we’re committed to anchoring inflation expectations in a manner that’s consistent with 2% inflation,” Kaplan said. “I think just emphasizing that is probably a healthy thing.”\nThe moves in Treasury markets following the Fed’s June meeting, with investors buying longer-dated debt instead of short-term bills, may take a few more weeks to wash out, Kaplan said.\nWhile noting that a number of people have dropped out of the labor force due to early retirement, Kaplan is optimistic that the participation rate of workers aged 25 to 54 will improve, especially as schools reopen to in-person learning and women, who left the workforce in disproportionate numbers during the pandemic, return to work.\nThe U.S. labor market needs a “relentless,” multi-year effort in more widespread skills training, increased early-childhood education and access to wi-fi to create better long-term workforce trends, Kaplan said.\n“If your workforce growth is slowing or decelerating, you’ve got to try to improve worker adaptability and improve productivity, and education has got to be central to that,” Kaplan said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2550,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":21,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/128927537"}