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2021-05-27

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What if the Fed Can’t Raise Interest Rates? Why Near-Zero Is the New Normal.<blockquote>如果美联储不能加息怎么办？为什么接近零是新常态。</blockquote>

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Why Near-Zero Is the New Normal.<blockquote>如果美联储不能加息怎么办？为什么接近零是新常态。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130719523","media":"Barrons","summary":"When it comes to Federal Reserve policy, investors are focused on the wrong question.Investors continue to agonize over when the Fed will trim its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases, says Joe LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis,with anxiety rising after minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s April meeting showed some policy makers think taper discussions should begin in “upcoming meetings.”A more important question, LaVorgna says, is when will the Fed raise inter","content":"When it comes to Federal Reserve policy, investors are focused on the wrong question.<blockquote>当谈到美联储政策时，投资者关注的是错误的问题。</blockquote> Investors continue to agonize over when the Fed will trim its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases, says Joe LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at&nbsp;Natixis,with anxiety rising after minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s April meeting showed&nbsp;some policy makers think taper discussions should begin in “upcoming meetings.”<blockquote>Natixis美洲首席经济学家Joe LaVorgna表示，投资者继续为美联储何时削减每月1200亿美元的资产购买规模而苦恼，在联邦公开市场委员会4月份会议纪要显示一些政策制定者认为缩减规模后，投资者的焦虑情绪加剧。讨论应在“即将举行的会议”中开始。</blockquote> A more important question, LaVorgna says, is when will the Fed raise interest rates. More important still: whether the Fed actually can raise rates.<blockquote>拉沃尼亚表示，一个更重要的问题是美联储何时加息。更重要的是：美联储是否真的能够加息。</blockquote> Financial markets’ sensitivity to monetary policy has never been higher. The Fed’s balance sheet has doubled since the end of the last financial crisis, now 40% of gross domestic product. By buying massive amounts of bonds, the Fed has lowered rates and used asset prices—especially stocks—as the primary tool for monetary policy, says LaVorgna. That’s through the so-called wealth effect, or the tendency for consumers (two-thirds of GDP) to spend more as their assets grow. And so any correction in stock prices would negatively affect economic growth and thus prevent the Fed from tightening, he says.<blockquote>金融市场对货币政策的敏感度从未如此之高。自上次金融危机结束以来，美联储的资产负债表已经翻了一番，现在是国内生产总值的40%。拉沃尼亚表示，通过购买大量债券，美联储降低了利率，并将资产价格（尤其是股票）作为货币政策的主要工具。这是通过所谓的财富效应，即消费者（占GDP的三分之二）随着资产增长而增加支出的趋势。他表示，因此股价的任何调整都会对经济增长产生负面影响，从而阻止美联储收紧货币政策。</blockquote> That’s not to mention the prospect of further fiscal stimulus, which itself would make tapering bond purchases a tall order. “Who would buy the potentially trillions of dollars of additional debt?” LaVorgna asks, as the Fed has become such a dominant force in the bond market.<blockquote>更不用说进一步财政刺激的前景了，这本身就会使缩减债券购买成为一项艰巨的任务。“谁会购买潜在的数万亿美元的额外债务？”拉沃尼亚问道，美联储已成为债券市场的主导力量。</blockquote> “The Fed’s balance sheet keeps growing and the stock market keeps rising,” he says. “Fearing a contractionary GDP effect from lower asset prices on future economic activity means the Fed may never be able to normalize interest rates,” LaVorgna says.<blockquote>“美联储的资产负债表不断增长，股市不断上涨，”他说。拉沃尼亚表示：“担心资产价格下跌对未来经济活动产生GDP收缩效应，意味着美联储可能永远无法实现利率正常化。”</blockquote> That’s one piece of the argument that the Fed may not be able to meaningfully lift interest rates.Another is the debt side of the equation.&nbsp;<blockquote>这是美联储可能无法有意义地加息的论点之一。另一个是等式的债务方面。</blockquote> Consider the fact that the Fed was unable to lift rates above 2.5% during the last tightening cycle and had cut rates in several meetings before the pandemic prompted its emergency actions early last year. Since then, U.S. households, businesses, and the federal government have grown only more indebted.<blockquote>考虑到这样一个事实，即美联储在上一个紧缩周期中无法将利率提高到2.5%以上，并且在去年年初疫情促使其采取紧急行动之前，已经在几次会议上降息。自那以后，美国家庭、企业和联邦政府的负债只会越来越多。</blockquote> Therein lies the conundrum. If the Fed tightens, the existing debt pile becomes more expensive to service, hampering economic growth. If the Fed doesn’t tighten, debt across households, companies and the government continues to grow, making it ever tougher for the Fed to move.That’s a particular problem if inflation is something more than transitory, casting doubt over the Fed’s ability to quell a potential price spiral.<blockquote>这就是难题所在。如果美联储收紧政策，现有债务的偿还成本将变得更加昂贵，从而阻碍经济增长。如果美联储不收紧政策，家庭、企业和政府的债务将继续增长，这使得美联储采取行动变得更加困难。如果通胀不仅仅是暂时的，这就是一个特殊的问题，让人对美联储平息潜在价格螺旋的能力产生怀疑。</blockquote> The Fed has put itself in a box that will be difficult to get out of, especially if that economy’s growth rate slows next year—which is almost a certainty given this year’s reopening boom, LaVorgna says.<blockquote>拉沃尼亚表示，美联储已经将自己置于一个难以摆脱的盒子里，特别是如果明年经济增长率放缓的话——考虑到今年的重新开放热潮，这几乎是肯定的。</blockquote> The upshot: tightening, via both tapering and interest-rate increases, may be much further away than the market currently expects. (The Fed has said it would keep rates unchanged through 2023, while investors are pricing in the first 0.25% rate increase by January 2023.)<blockquote>结果是：通过缩减和加息实现的紧缩可能比市场目前预期的要远得多。（美联储表示将在2023年之前维持利率不变，而投资者预计2023年1月将首次加息0.25%。）</blockquote> For now, that would translate into ongoing stock market gains, especially in rate-sensitive areas like technology. What that means for the economy is another question, and what it means for markets longer term is yet another.<blockquote>就目前而言，这将转化为股市持续上涨，尤其是在科技等利率敏感领域。这对经济意味着什么是另一个问题，对市场的长期意味着什么又是另一个问题。</blockquote> “It would not surprise me if in the next crisis the Fed crosses the final red line and buys equities,” LaVorgna says, what he says would amount to a “leveraged Fed put,” based on the belief that the Fed will inevitably come to the market’s rescue.<blockquote>拉沃尼亚表示：“如果美联储在下一次危机中越过最后的红线并购买股票，我不会感到惊讶。”他所说的这相当于“杠杆美联储看跌期权”，因为他相信美联储将不可避免地来到市场救援。</blockquote> Whatever the answers, the questions facing U.S. investors are bigger and more consequential than when tapering and rate liftoff might begin.<blockquote>无论答案如何，美国投资者面临的问题比何时开始缩减规模和加息更大、更重要。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What if the Fed Can’t Raise Interest Rates? Why Near-Zero Is the New Normal.<blockquote>如果美联储不能加息怎么办？为什么接近零是新常态。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat if the Fed Can’t Raise Interest Rates? Why Near-Zero Is the New Normal.<blockquote>如果美联储不能加息怎么办？为什么接近零是新常态。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-05-27 18:32\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWhen it comes to Federal Reserve policy, investors are focused on the wrong question.<blockquote>当谈到美联储政策时，投资者关注的是错误的问题。</blockquote> Investors continue to agonize over when the Fed will trim its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases, says Joe LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at&nbsp;Natixis,with anxiety rising after minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s April meeting showed&nbsp;some policy makers think taper discussions should begin in “upcoming meetings.”<blockquote>Natixis美洲首席经济学家Joe LaVorgna表示，投资者继续为美联储何时削减每月1200亿美元的资产购买规模而苦恼，在联邦公开市场委员会4月份会议纪要显示一些政策制定者认为缩减规模后，投资者的焦虑情绪加剧。讨论应在“即将举行的会议”中开始。</blockquote> A more important question, LaVorgna says, is when will the Fed raise interest rates. More important still: whether the Fed actually can raise rates.<blockquote>拉沃尼亚表示，一个更重要的问题是美联储何时加息。更重要的是：美联储是否真的能够加息。</blockquote> Financial markets’ sensitivity to monetary policy has never been higher. The Fed’s balance sheet has doubled since the end of the last financial crisis, now 40% of gross domestic product. By buying massive amounts of bonds, the Fed has lowered rates and used asset prices—especially stocks—as the primary tool for monetary policy, says LaVorgna. That’s through the so-called wealth effect, or the tendency for consumers (two-thirds of GDP) to spend more as their assets grow. And so any correction in stock prices would negatively affect economic growth and thus prevent the Fed from tightening, he says.<blockquote>金融市场对货币政策的敏感度从未如此之高。自上次金融危机结束以来，美联储的资产负债表已经翻了一番，现在是国内生产总值的40%。拉沃尼亚表示，通过购买大量债券，美联储降低了利率，并将资产价格（尤其是股票）作为货币政策的主要工具。这是通过所谓的财富效应，即消费者（占GDP的三分之二）随着资产增长而增加支出的趋势。他表示，因此股价的任何调整都会对经济增长产生负面影响，从而阻止美联储收紧货币政策。</blockquote> That’s not to mention the prospect of further fiscal stimulus, which itself would make tapering bond purchases a tall order. “Who would buy the potentially trillions of dollars of additional debt?” LaVorgna asks, as the Fed has become such a dominant force in the bond market.<blockquote>更不用说进一步财政刺激的前景了，这本身就会使缩减债券购买成为一项艰巨的任务。“谁会购买潜在的数万亿美元的额外债务？”拉沃尼亚问道，美联储已成为债券市场的主导力量。</blockquote> “The Fed’s balance sheet keeps growing and the stock market keeps rising,” he says. “Fearing a contractionary GDP effect from lower asset prices on future economic activity means the Fed may never be able to normalize interest rates,” LaVorgna says.<blockquote>“美联储的资产负债表不断增长，股市不断上涨，”他说。拉沃尼亚表示：“担心资产价格下跌对未来经济活动产生GDP收缩效应，意味着美联储可能永远无法实现利率正常化。”</blockquote> That’s one piece of the argument that the Fed may not be able to meaningfully lift interest rates.Another is the debt side of the equation.&nbsp;<blockquote>这是美联储可能无法有意义地加息的论点之一。另一个是等式的债务方面。</blockquote> Consider the fact that the Fed was unable to lift rates above 2.5% during the last tightening cycle and had cut rates in several meetings before the pandemic prompted its emergency actions early last year. Since then, U.S. households, businesses, and the federal government have grown only more indebted.<blockquote>考虑到这样一个事实，即美联储在上一个紧缩周期中无法将利率提高到2.5%以上，并且在去年年初疫情促使其采取紧急行动之前，已经在几次会议上降息。自那以后，美国家庭、企业和联邦政府的负债只会越来越多。</blockquote> Therein lies the conundrum. If the Fed tightens, the existing debt pile becomes more expensive to service, hampering economic growth. If the Fed doesn’t tighten, debt across households, companies and the government continues to grow, making it ever tougher for the Fed to move.That’s a particular problem if inflation is something more than transitory, casting doubt over the Fed’s ability to quell a potential price spiral.<blockquote>这就是难题所在。如果美联储收紧政策，现有债务的偿还成本将变得更加昂贵，从而阻碍经济增长。如果美联储不收紧政策，家庭、企业和政府的债务将继续增长，这使得美联储采取行动变得更加困难。如果通胀不仅仅是暂时的，这就是一个特殊的问题，让人对美联储平息潜在价格螺旋的能力产生怀疑。</blockquote> The Fed has put itself in a box that will be difficult to get out of, especially if that economy’s growth rate slows next year—which is almost a certainty given this year’s reopening boom, LaVorgna says.<blockquote>拉沃尼亚表示，美联储已经将自己置于一个难以摆脱的盒子里，特别是如果明年经济增长率放缓的话——考虑到今年的重新开放热潮，这几乎是肯定的。</blockquote> The upshot: tightening, via both tapering and interest-rate increases, may be much further away than the market currently expects. (The Fed has said it would keep rates unchanged through 2023, while investors are pricing in the first 0.25% rate increase by January 2023.)<blockquote>结果是：通过缩减和加息实现的紧缩可能比市场目前预期的要远得多。（美联储表示将在2023年之前维持利率不变，而投资者预计2023年1月将首次加息0.25%。）</blockquote> For now, that would translate into ongoing stock market gains, especially in rate-sensitive areas like technology. What that means for the economy is another question, and what it means for markets longer term is yet another.<blockquote>就目前而言，这将转化为股市持续上涨，尤其是在科技等利率敏感领域。这对经济意味着什么是另一个问题，对市场的长期意味着什么又是另一个问题。</blockquote> “It would not surprise me if in the next crisis the Fed crosses the final red line and buys equities,” LaVorgna says, what he says would amount to a “leveraged Fed put,” based on the belief that the Fed will inevitably come to the market’s rescue.<blockquote>拉沃尼亚表示：“如果美联储在下一次危机中越过最后的红线并购买股票，我不会感到惊讶。”他所说的这相当于“杠杆美联储看跌期权”，因为他相信美联储将不可避免地来到市场救援。</blockquote> Whatever the answers, the questions facing U.S. investors are bigger and more consequential than when tapering and rate liftoff might begin.<blockquote>无论答案如何，美国投资者面临的问题比何时开始缩减规模和加息更大、更重要。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-if-the-fed-cant-raise-interest-rates-why-near-zero-is-the-new-normal-51622063791?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-if-the-fed-cant-raise-interest-rates-why-near-zero-is-the-new-normal-51622063791?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130719523","content_text":"When it comes to Federal Reserve policy, investors are focused on the wrong question.\nInvestors continue to agonize over when the Fed will trim its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases, says Joe LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis,with anxiety rising after minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s April meeting showed some policy makers think taper discussions should begin in “upcoming meetings.”\nA more important question, LaVorgna says, is when will the Fed raise interest rates. More important still: whether the Fed actually can raise rates.\nFinancial markets’ sensitivity to monetary policy has never been higher. The Fed’s balance sheet has doubled since the end of the last financial crisis, now 40% of gross domestic product. By buying massive amounts of bonds, the Fed has lowered rates and used asset prices—especially stocks—as the primary tool for monetary policy, says LaVorgna. That’s through the so-called wealth effect, or the tendency for consumers (two-thirds of GDP) to spend more as their assets grow. And so any correction in stock prices would negatively affect economic growth and thus prevent the Fed from tightening, he says.\nThat’s not to mention the prospect of further fiscal stimulus, which itself would make tapering bond purchases a tall order. “Who would buy the potentially trillions of dollars of additional debt?” LaVorgna asks, as the Fed has become such a dominant force in the bond market.\n“The Fed’s balance sheet keeps growing and the stock market keeps rising,” he says. “Fearing a contractionary GDP effect from lower asset prices on future economic activity means the Fed may never be able to normalize interest rates,” LaVorgna says.\nThat’s one piece of the argument that the Fed may not be able to meaningfully lift interest rates.Another is the debt side of the equation. \nConsider the fact that the Fed was unable to lift rates above 2.5% during the last tightening cycle and had cut rates in several meetings before the pandemic prompted its emergency actions early last year. Since then, U.S. households, businesses, and the federal government have grown only more indebted.\nTherein lies the conundrum. If the Fed tightens, the existing debt pile becomes more expensive to service, hampering economic growth. If the Fed doesn’t tighten, debt across households, companies and the government continues to grow, making it ever tougher for the Fed to move.That’s a particular problem if inflation is something more than transitory, casting doubt over the Fed’s ability to quell a potential price spiral.\nThe Fed has put itself in a box that will be difficult to get out of, especially if that economy’s growth rate slows next year—which is almost a certainty given this year’s reopening boom, LaVorgna says.\nThe upshot: tightening, via both tapering and interest-rate increases, may be much further away than the market currently expects. (The Fed has said it would keep rates unchanged through 2023, while investors are pricing in the first 0.25% rate increase by January 2023.)\nFor now, that would translate into ongoing stock market gains, especially in rate-sensitive areas like technology. What that means for the economy is another question, and what it means for markets longer term is yet another.\n“It would not surprise me if in the next crisis the Fed crosses the final red line and buys equities,” LaVorgna says, what he says would amount to a “leveraged Fed put,” based on the belief that the Fed will inevitably come to the market’s rescue.\nWhatever the answers, the questions facing U.S. investors are bigger and more consequential than when tapering and rate liftoff might begin.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":309,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":32,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/132700954"}