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2021-05-28
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Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move<blockquote>观点：随着标普500接近历史高点，做好暴力行动的准备</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":135545747,"tweetId":"135545747","gmtCreate":1622172585289,"gmtModify":1634183145240,"author":{"id":3584409189861115,"idStr":"3584409189861115","authorId":3584409189861115,"authorIdStr":"3584409189861115","name":"HiDaya","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb87d9a1b7333340c5c703cd08909596","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>....</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>....</p></body></html>","text":"....","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135545747","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move<blockquote>观点：随着标普500接近历史高点，做好暴力行动的准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<p> <b>Here’s how to trade the stock market.</b> The S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.</p><p><blockquote><b>以下是如何交易股市。</b>标普500指数一直在两次测试的支撑位4060点和历史高点4238点之间交易。随着它接近这个区间的顶部，很可能会出现波动性的走势：要么突破历史新高，这肯定会产生一些强劲的后续买入，要么在交易区间顶部失败，再次走低测试区间底部。</blockquote></p><p> Either move is likely to be swift.</p><p><blockquote>这两项举措都可能很快。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回顾一下指标，然后我们可以判断对这个理论应用什么策略。</blockquote></p><p> As noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，S&PSPX,+0.12%在4238点（历史高点）有阻力，在4060点有双重测试的支撑。在那里下方，另一个支撑位存在于4000，然后最后的支撑位在3870。</blockquote></p><p> A breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.</p><p><blockquote>跌破3870点将会极大地改变事情——使SPX指数明显看跌，很可能表明我们已经进入熊市。但这与目前的水平相去甚远。此外，麦克米兰波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。其目标是-4 σ“修正布林线”，目前位于4020点并横盘整理。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.</p><p><blockquote>尽管随着SPX接近历史高点，看涨期权的大量买盘似乎再次开始，但仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍处于卖出信号。只要这些比率上升，卖出信号就会保持不变。我们用来分析这些图表的计算机程序一致认为，这些比率仍然是卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> Breadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.</p><p><blockquote>广度一直在来回跳跃。5月中旬发出了广度买入信号，但广度在反弹期间并没有人们希望的那么强劲。因此，如果宽度连续两天出现负值，这些宽度振荡器虽然仍处于买入信号，但很容易迅速逆转为卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> On a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,<i>c</i>umulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>不过，从更积极的方面来看，在这次反弹中出现了一些内部力量，累积宽度指标正在改善。事实上，<i>c</i>累计成交量宽度（CVB）刚刚创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Subscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).</p><p><blockquote>订阅者可能还记得，这是我们可以从累积指标中获得的少数预测性信息之一，它预示着SPX将创下历史新高。这个唯一指标的跟踪记录非常强劲，因为在我们跟踪它的21年里，它没有出错（公平地说，在2000年的一个指标和2013年的下一个指标之间没有任何信号）。</blockquote></p><p> New 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.</p><p><blockquote>52周新高继续超过52周新低。这是看涨的。然而，新高的数量不再像以前那样扩大。无论如何，只要新高超过新低，这仍将是一个积极的指标。</blockquote></p><p> Volatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.</p><p><blockquote>波动性仍然是看好股市前景的分析领域。首先，VIX“尖峰”买入信号仍然有效。二是VIXVIX，-3.57%的走势明显再次走低。VIX均低于200日和20日移动平均线。这是一个轻微的变化，因为有一个小的上升趋势发展；现在已经不是这样了。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.</p><p><blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的结构仍然是积极的，因为VIX期货VX00,-4.61%的交易价格高于VIX，并且其期限结构向上倾斜。Cboe波动率指数期限结构也向上倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>总之，SPX仍在区间内交易，因此我们交易确认的买入信号和卖出信号。突破4238点（即达到历史新高）肯定是非常积极的，但这并不能保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New recommendation: SPY straddle buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新推荐：SPDR标普500指数ETF跨式买入</b></blockquote></p><p> For now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.</p><p><blockquote>目前，SPX仍在4060至4238之间的交易区间内。交易区间的一种方法是在区间顶部附近卖出（做空），在区间底部附近做多，如果任一方向出现突破，则反转您的头寸。根据这一策略，人们现在应该买入看跌期权，因为SPX接近该区间的顶部。</blockquote></p><p> However, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，正如我们在上面的分析中看到的，目前既有积极的指标，也有消极的指标，其中较强的指标之一是CVB买入信号。考虑到这一点，人们会买入评级，期待SPX最终突破新高。再加上波动率（VIX）接近低点的事实，跨式购买似乎是利用所有这些因素的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）平价看涨期权</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>And buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并买入1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）平价看跌期权</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.</p><p><blockquote>目前，平价跨式期权的成本约为17点，即1,700美元。那么，如果SPDR标普500指数ETF股价比执行价格上涨17点或下跌17点，它就会赚钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New recommendation: Cerner</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新推荐：Cerner</b></blockquote></p><p> Vague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.</p><p><blockquote>CernerCERN出现了模糊的收购传闻，过去两天股价为-0.94%。在此期间，期权交易量通常会增加三倍。股票成交量模式相当强劲，该股在76-77区域有支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买4 CERN 6月（18日）80评级</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>At a price of 2.00 or less.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格为2.00或更低。</b></blockquote></p><p> CERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered</p><p><blockquote>CERN：79.03 6月（18日）80看涨期权：1.95已提供</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\"><b>Follow-up action</b></p><p><blockquote><b>后续行动</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:</b>Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙8 FXY 6月（18日）87评级：</b>现在卖出这些评级，因为看跌-看涨期权比率买入信号不再到位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:</b>This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）410看跌期权空头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）385看跌期权：</b>进行这笔交易是因为5月12日SPX下跌至4105点时出现了MVB卖出信号。它将被SPX再次收于+4 σ波段上方止损。实际上，在这一点上，我们没有停止。如果SPX交易在-4 σ区间，它将达到利润目标。目前，较低的波段在4020点左右，正在横盘整理。如果SPX在任何时候交易于4000点，则卖出该头寸的一半。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:</b>This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:</p><p><blockquote><b>多头1到期SPDR标普500指数ETF 5月（28日）416看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 5月（28日）396看跌：</b>该建议基于现有的纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号。只要仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率处于卖出信号，我们就将持有这一建议。因此，我们将每周更新状态。由于价差即将到期，请出售当前价差并将其替换为以下内容：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买入1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）平价看跌期权</b></blockquote></p><p> <b> And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并以下跌20点的价格卖出1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）看跌期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> For now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY<i>trades</i>at the lower strike at any time.</p><p><blockquote>现在，不要停下来。向下滚动位置，每边20击，如果SPDR标普500指数ETF<i>贸易</i>随时在较低的罢工。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:</b>Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙3德6月（18日）100评级：</b>在我们等待激进投资者产生积极结果时，不要停止持有。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:</b>This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).</p><p><blockquote><b>多2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）415评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）428评级：</b>该价差是在5月21日最新的VIX“尖峰”买入信号得到确认时买入的。如果VIX回到飙升模式，也就是说，如果它在三天或更短的时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），它将被止损。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:</b>Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”</p><p><blockquote><b>龙1 KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：</b>堪萨斯城南方KSU,+0.81%已正式接受加拿大国家铁路CNI,+2.82%的更高收购要约。CNI股价略有下跌，但该交易仍价值315美元。该交易的价格为200美元现金+1.129股CNI股票。当然，也存在监管延迟。然而，交易中的价差扩大，期权价格下跌，这似乎有些矫枉过正。当5月14日首次提出更高出价时，加拿大国民银行的交易价格为107美元，现在为104美元——差别不大。我们将持有，看看这种利差是否会有所收紧。目前尚不清楚另一个竞标者加拿大太平洋铁路CP(-1.10%)是否会提出更高的报价。期权市场似乎在说“不”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move<blockquote>观点：随着标普500接近历史高点，做好暴力行动的准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move<blockquote>观点：随着标普500接近历史高点，做好暴力行动的准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-28 11:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>Here’s how to trade the stock market.</b> The S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.</p><p><blockquote><b>以下是如何交易股市。</b>标普500指数一直在两次测试的支撑位4060点和历史高点4238点之间交易。随着它接近这个区间的顶部，很可能会出现波动性的走势：要么突破历史新高，这肯定会产生一些强劲的后续买入，要么在交易区间顶部失败，再次走低测试区间底部。</blockquote></p><p> Either move is likely to be swift.</p><p><blockquote>这两项举措都可能很快。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回顾一下指标，然后我们可以判断对这个理论应用什么策略。</blockquote></p><p> As noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，S&PSPX,+0.12%在4238点（历史高点）有阻力，在4060点有双重测试的支撑。在那里下方，另一个支撑位存在于4000，然后最后的支撑位在3870。</blockquote></p><p> A breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.</p><p><blockquote>跌破3870点将会极大地改变事情——使SPX指数明显看跌，很可能表明我们已经进入熊市。但这与目前的水平相去甚远。此外，麦克米兰波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。其目标是-4 σ“修正布林线”，目前位于4020点并横盘整理。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.</p><p><blockquote>尽管随着SPX接近历史高点，看涨期权的大量买盘似乎再次开始，但仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍处于卖出信号。只要这些比率上升，卖出信号就会保持不变。我们用来分析这些图表的计算机程序一致认为，这些比率仍然是卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> Breadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.</p><p><blockquote>广度一直在来回跳跃。5月中旬发出了广度买入信号，但广度在反弹期间并没有人们希望的那么强劲。因此，如果宽度连续两天出现负值，这些宽度振荡器虽然仍处于买入信号，但很容易迅速逆转为卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> On a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,<i>c</i>umulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>不过，从更积极的方面来看，在这次反弹中出现了一些内部力量，累积宽度指标正在改善。事实上，<i>c</i>累计成交量宽度（CVB）刚刚创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Subscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).</p><p><blockquote>订阅者可能还记得，这是我们可以从累积指标中获得的少数预测性信息之一，它预示着SPX将创下历史新高。这个唯一指标的跟踪记录非常强劲，因为在我们跟踪它的21年里，它没有出错（公平地说，在2000年的一个指标和2013年的下一个指标之间没有任何信号）。</blockquote></p><p> New 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.</p><p><blockquote>52周新高继续超过52周新低。这是看涨的。然而，新高的数量不再像以前那样扩大。无论如何，只要新高超过新低，这仍将是一个积极的指标。</blockquote></p><p> Volatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.</p><p><blockquote>波动性仍然是看好股市前景的分析领域。首先，VIX“尖峰”买入信号仍然有效。二是VIXVIX，-3.57%的走势明显再次走低。VIX均低于200日和20日移动平均线。这是一个轻微的变化，因为有一个小的上升趋势发展；现在已经不是这样了。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.</p><p><blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的结构仍然是积极的，因为VIX期货VX00,-4.61%的交易价格高于VIX，并且其期限结构向上倾斜。Cboe波动率指数期限结构也向上倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>总之，SPX仍在区间内交易，因此我们交易确认的买入信号和卖出信号。突破4238点（即达到历史新高）肯定是非常积极的，但这并不能保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New recommendation: SPY straddle buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新推荐：SPDR标普500指数ETF跨式买入</b></blockquote></p><p> For now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.</p><p><blockquote>目前，SPX仍在4060至4238之间的交易区间内。交易区间的一种方法是在区间顶部附近卖出（做空），在区间底部附近做多，如果任一方向出现突破，则反转您的头寸。根据这一策略，人们现在应该买入看跌期权，因为SPX接近该区间的顶部。</blockquote></p><p> However, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，正如我们在上面的分析中看到的，目前既有积极的指标，也有消极的指标，其中较强的指标之一是CVB买入信号。考虑到这一点，人们会买入评级，期待SPX最终突破新高。再加上波动率（VIX）接近低点的事实，跨式购买似乎是利用所有这些因素的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）平价看涨期权</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>And buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并买入1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）平价看跌期权</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.</p><p><blockquote>目前，平价跨式期权的成本约为17点，即1,700美元。那么，如果SPDR标普500指数ETF股价比执行价格上涨17点或下跌17点，它就会赚钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New recommendation: Cerner</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新推荐：Cerner</b></blockquote></p><p> Vague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.</p><p><blockquote>CernerCERN出现了模糊的收购传闻，过去两天股价为-0.94%。在此期间，期权交易量通常会增加三倍。股票成交量模式相当强劲，该股在76-77区域有支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买4 CERN 6月（18日）80评级</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>At a price of 2.00 or less.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格为2.00或更低。</b></blockquote></p><p> CERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered</p><p><blockquote>CERN：79.03 6月（18日）80看涨期权：1.95已提供</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\"><b>Follow-up action</b></p><p><blockquote><b>后续行动</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:</b>Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙8 FXY 6月（18日）87评级：</b>现在卖出这些评级，因为看跌-看涨期权比率买入信号不再到位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:</b>This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）410看跌期权空头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）385看跌期权：</b>进行这笔交易是因为5月12日SPX下跌至4105点时出现了MVB卖出信号。它将被SPX再次收于+4 σ波段上方止损。实际上，在这一点上，我们没有停止。如果SPX交易在-4 σ区间，它将达到利润目标。目前，较低的波段在4020点左右，正在横盘整理。如果SPX在任何时候交易于4000点，则卖出该头寸的一半。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:</b>This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:</p><p><blockquote><b>多头1到期SPDR标普500指数ETF 5月（28日）416看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 5月（28日）396看跌：</b>该建议基于现有的纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号。只要仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率处于卖出信号，我们就将持有这一建议。因此，我们将每周更新状态。由于价差即将到期，请出售当前价差并将其替换为以下内容：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买入1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）平价看跌期权</b></blockquote></p><p> <b> And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并以下跌20点的价格卖出1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）看跌期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> For now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY<i>trades</i>at the lower strike at any time.</p><p><blockquote>现在，不要停下来。向下滚动位置，每边20击，如果SPDR标普500指数ETF<i>贸易</i>随时在较低的罢工。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:</b>Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙3德6月（18日）100评级：</b>在我们等待激进投资者产生积极结果时，不要停止持有。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:</b>This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).</p><p><blockquote><b>多2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）415评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）428评级：</b>该价差是在5月21日最新的VIX“尖峰”买入信号得到确认时买入的。如果VIX回到飙升模式，也就是说，如果它在三天或更短的时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），它将被止损。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:</b>Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”</p><p><blockquote><b>龙1 KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：</b>堪萨斯城南方KSU,+0.81%已正式接受加拿大国家铁路CNI,+2.82%的更高收购要约。CNI股价略有下跌，但该交易仍价值315美元。该交易的价格为200美元现金+1.129股CNI股票。当然，也存在监管延迟。然而，交易中的价差扩大，期权价格下跌，这似乎有些矫枉过正。当5月14日首次提出更高出价时，加拿大国民银行的交易价格为107美元，现在为104美元——差别不大。我们将持有，看看这种利差是否会有所收紧。目前尚不清楚另一个竞标者加拿大太平洋铁路CP(-1.10%)是否会提出更高的报价。期权市场似乎在说“不”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1590,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/135545747"}
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