They think delta means sleep o_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-07-15

They think delta means sleep on

US Consumers So Far Completely Undeterred By Delta Variant<blockquote>迄今为止，美国消费者完全没有被德尔塔变异毒株吓倒</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":144482653,"tweetId":"144482653","gmtCreate":1626310346072,"gmtModify":1633928030525,"author":{"id":3573708491598785,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorId":3573708491598785,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>They think delta means sleep on</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>They think delta means sleep on</body></html>","text":"They think delta means sleep on","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144482653","repostId":1158066571,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158066571","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626309470,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158066571?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-15 08:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US Consumers So Far Completely Undeterred By Delta Variant<blockquote>迄今为止，美国消费者完全没有被德尔塔变异毒株吓倒</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158066571","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Despite the recent jump in Delta variant covid cases in the US, economic data continues to show that","content":"Despite the recent jump in Delta variant covid cases in the US, economic data continues to show that consumers are actively spending on services and remain undeterred despite the media's best efforts to spark a fresh pre-lockdown panic.<blockquote>尽管最近美国德尔塔变异毒株新冠病例激增，但经济数据继续显示，消费者正在积极地在服务上支出，尽管媒体尽最大努力引发新的封锁前恐慌，但他们仍然没有被吓倒。</blockquote> First, a quick update on the current state of the virus in the US.<blockquote>首先，快速更新一下美国的病毒现状。</blockquote> Average daily virus cases jumped by 28.3% to 17.4k during the week ending July 9, and the 7-day moving average of virus cases increased to 17.4k during the week ending July 9. This is the highest level since May 31 and a 28.3% increase from the week ending July 2. As BofA note this morning, from July 2 to July 9, forty states have recorded growth in daily cases and states where vaccine rates are lower are experiencing faster case growth. As shown in the chart below, the bank finds that growth in virus cases and&nbsp; vaccination rates at the state level exhibit a negative relationship.<blockquote>在截至7月9日的一周内，平均每日病毒病例跃升28.3%至17.4 K，在截至7月9日的一周内，病毒病例的7天移动平均值增至17.4 K。这是自5月31日以来的最高水平，比截至7月2日的一周增长了28.3%。正如美国银行今天上午指出的，从7月2日到7月9日，40个州的每日病例有所增长，疫苗接种率较低的州病例增长较快。如下图所示，世行发现州一级病毒病例的增长和疫苗接种率呈负相关关系。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8f8ff33b4322b837d74df703dbe8ecf\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"396\">Along with low vaccine rates, the Delta variant, which is more infectious than earlier strains, has driven the rise in cases of late. Outbreak.info estimates that the variant accounted for 20% of virus cases over the 60 days ending July 7.<blockquote>除了疫苗接种率低之外，比早期毒株更具传染性的德尔塔变异毒株病毒也导致了最近病例的增加。Outbreak.info估计，在截至7月7日的60天内，该变种占病毒病例的20%。</blockquote> Meantime, vaccine rates have slowed appreciably with the 7-day average of jabs dropping to just about 500k. This was likely due in part to the July 4 holiday; however, shots have been on a downward trend since April.<blockquote>与此同时，疫苗接种率明显放缓，7天平均接种量降至约50万次。这可能部分是由于7月4日假期；然而，自4月份以来，镜头一直呈下降趋势。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d18acf4b8e419fca5e8c613ab16b4376\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"430\">Regardless, the US remains one of the most vaccinated countries,with 67.7% of its adult population and 88.7% of those 65 and older having received at least one shot to date.This, BofA concedes, should limit the spread of the Delta variant. However, the bank warns that the uneven vaccination rates across states and within states means that there are areas that have little protection against this highly infectious variant. Moreover, the longer the virus lingers the greater the risk for a vaccine-resistant variant to develop. In short: whether be decree or due to simple population dynamics, Covid-19 could be with us for the foreseeable future.<blockquote>无论如何，美国仍然是接种疫苗最多的国家之一，迄今为止，67.7%的成年人口和88.7%的65岁及以上人口至少接种过一次疫苗。美国银行承认，这应该会限制德尔塔变异毒株的蔓延。然而，世行警告说，各州之间和州内的疫苗接种率不均意味着有些地区对这种高传染性变种几乎没有保护。此外，病毒停留的时间越长，出现疫苗抗性变异的风险就越大。简而言之：无论是法令还是由于简单的人口动态，新冠肺炎可能会在可预见的未来与我们同在。</blockquote> In light of this data,BofA thinks we will continue to see a surge in cases over the near-term, but does not expect restrictions on activity to be broadly imposed again.This means that while the downside risk to the economy is relatively low, the bank's economists will continue to reevaluate this view as things can change in a matter of days when it comes to the virus.<blockquote>根据这一数据，美国银行认为，短期内病例将继续激增，但预计不会再次广泛实施活动限制。这意味着，虽然经济的下行风险相对较低，但该行的经济学家将继续重新评估这一观点，因为在病毒方面，情况可能会在几天内发生变化。</blockquote> Economic activity<blockquote>经济活动</blockquote> The NY Fed weekly economic index came in at 9.8% yoy in the week ending July 10, down a bit the 10.0% reading in the prior week.Looking at 2Q, the weekly index from the Fed predicts 2Q growth of 11.1% yoy, which would imply 2.9% qoq saar. This would be a significant deceleration from 6.4% in 1Qand is below current consensus forecasts of 10.0% qoq saar or 13.0% yoy. That said, the NY fed index has tended to undershoot actual growth.<blockquote>截至7月10日当周，纽约联储每周经济指数同比增长9.8%，略低于前一周的10.0%。从第二季度来看，美联储每周指数预测第二季度同比增长11.1%，这意味着saar环比增长2.9%。这将比第一季度的6.4%显着减速低于当前普遍预测的环比10.0%或同比13.0%。也就是说，纽约联储指数往往低于实际增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6b7d3b219d45a1ccc472990cd6d3574\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"437\"><blockquote></blockquote> Consumer activity<blockquote>消费者活动</blockquote> According to BofA,consumers’ appetite for services has so far been undeterred by the rise in cases.Dining out and air travel both increased by 1.2% and 2.9% respectively during the week ending July 12. Movie box office receipts also remained elevated as F9: the Fast saga was the top earner for a second consecutive week.&nbsp; Here are the details:<blockquote>据美国银行称，到目前为止，消费者对服务的兴趣并没有因为病例的增加而减弱。截至7月12日当周，外出就餐和航空旅行分别增长了1.2%和2.9%。电影票房收入也保持高位，连续第二周成为票房冠军。以下是详细信息：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Time spent at home increased during the week ending July 9 given the July 4 holiday. Similarly, visitors to parks surged by 15.7% over the week and visitors to workplaces fell 7.7%. That said, one should ignore these big moves due to the holiday.</li> <li>The 7-day average of daily air passenger traffic increased by 2.9% to 2.032M during the week ending July 12. This was 79.3% of traffic during the same week in 2019, down from 81.1% in the prior week. Leisure travel has rebounded quickly, while corporate and international travel continue to lag. That said, BofA strategists noted that corporate travel is trending higher.International travel remains depressed, and the Delta variant is likely to keep a lid on international travel for the foreseeable future.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161637f140c4839c642d16e00d49efbf\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"793\"><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于7月4日假期，截至7月9日的一周内，在家度过的时间有所增加。同样，公园游客本周激增15.7%，工作场所游客下降7.7%。也就是说，由于假期，人们应该忽略这些大动作。</li><li>截至7月12日当周，7天日均航空客运量增长2.9%至203.2万人次。这是2019年同一周流量的79.3%，低于前一周的81.1%。休闲旅游快速反弹，企业和国际旅游持续滞后。尽管如此，美国银行策略师指出，商务旅行呈上升趋势。国际旅行仍然低迷，在可预见的未来，德尔塔变异毒株可能会限制国际旅行。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>Seated diners on the OpenTable network were down 7.8% from 2019 during the week ending July 12. This was up 1.2% from the prior week as weekly increases in the South and West offset declines in the Northeast and Midwest. We continue to expect dining out to approach 2019 levels, but nascent concerns over the Delta variant could start to affect consumers’ willingness to ear out even if they are vaccinated.</li> <li>Motor gasoline demand for the week ending July 2 topped its 2017-2019 weekly average for the first time since the start of the pandemic. This was likely due in part to seasonal effects from the holiday.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe113fa6aab43c176be77814a095132\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"380\"><blockquote><ul><li>截至7月12日当周，OpenTable网络上的就餐人数比2019年下降了7.8%。这比前一周增长了1.2%，因为南部和西部的每周增长抵消了东北部和中西部的下降。我们仍然预计外出就餐将接近2019年的水平，但对德尔塔变异毒株的新担忧可能会开始影响消费者外出就餐的意愿，即使他们接种了疫苗。</li><li>截至7月2日当周车用汽油需求自疫情爆发以来首次超过2017-2019年周平均水平。这可能部分是由于假期的季节性影响。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>Movie box office receipts remained elevated but declined from last week’s pandemic high. Receipts fell to $115M from $140M withF9: The Fast Sagaremaining the number 1 release. Average receipts per film are running above pre-pandemic levels due to the limited number of movie releases. This suggests demand is strong but supply has some catching up to do.</li> </ul> Labor market<blockquote><ul><li>电影票房收入仍然很高，但较上周的疫情高点有所下降。收入从1.4亿美元降至1.15亿美元F9：快速传奇剩下的第一个版本。由于电影上映数量有限，每部电影的平均收入高于大流行前的水平。这表明需求强劲，但供应需要迎头赶上。</li></ul>劳动力市场</blockquote> <ul> <li>The employment data tracked by BofA continues to be affected by the holidays as data from Homebase and the American staffing index are only available through July 11 and 3 respectively. Here are some more details:</li> <li>The data on small business employment from Homebase remains affected by the July 4 holiday as the latest available data are only through July 11, and we look at the 7-day moving average to smooth through week-day noise. Next week the data will be more informative as we’ll have the first estimate of the employment figures for the July payroll week.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c88f4b28837affceda16db7940d9ada5\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"422\"><blockquote><ul><li>美国银行追踪的就业数据继续受到假期的影响，因为Homebase和美国人员指数的数据分别只能在7月11日和3日之前获得。以下是更多细节：</li><li>Homebase的小企业就业数据仍然受到7月4日假期的影响，因为最新的可用数据仅截至7月11日，我们关注7天移动平均线来消除工作日的噪音。下周的数据将提供更多信息，因为我们将对7月份就业数据进行首次估计。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>Initial jobless claims were little changed at 373k in the week ending July 3rd. It’s possible the holidays added a little noise to the data and could also distort the coming release. Additionally, auto companies forgoing typical summer production slowdowns could also affect the data.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9e87a0f799e8f644b34bb86bb8b162\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"427\"><blockquote><ul><li>截至7月3日当周，首次申请失业救济人数变化不大，为37.3万人。假期可能会给数据增加一些噪音，也可能会扭曲即将发布的数据。此外，汽车公司放弃典型的夏季生产放缓也可能影响数据。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>Through the first 27 weeks of the year, high propensity business applications are up 40.5% from the same period in 2019. This should be a positive source of labor demand over the near-term as new businesses start hiring. Additionally, it could also help drive productivity.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f231501772b070b9b56c7d72bbdf669\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"410\"><blockquote><ul><li>今年前27周，高倾向业务申请比2019年同期增长了40.5%。随着新企业开始招聘，这应该是近期劳动力需求的积极来源。此外，它还有助于提高生产力。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>The American Staffing index recorded an 8.4% increase from two years ago during the week ending July 3rd. It’s likely that the outsized increase is a result of the timing of the July 4 holiday in 2019 vs. 2021. That said, the index continues to be a positive signal for labor demand and hiring activity in the temporary help sector.</li> </ul> Industrial activity<blockquote><ul><li>截至7月3日当周，美国人员配备指数较两年前增长8.4%。大幅增长很可能是2019年7月4日假期与2021年7月4日假期时间的结果。也就是说，该指数仍然是临时帮助行业劳动力需求和招聘活动的积极信号。</li></ul>工业活动</blockquote> <ul> <li>Railroad traffic rebounded with and 10.9% increase during the week ending July 3, more than reversing the 5.0% drop in the prior week. The rebound was driven by a surge in carloads of coal, motor vehicle and parts, and chemicals.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f288d1140c002ec49a1e54e32cad1a\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"386\"><blockquote><ul><li>截至7月3日当周，铁路运输量反弹，增长10.9%，扭转了前一周5.0%的跌幅。煤炭、机动车辆及零部件以及化学品装车量激增推动了这一反弹。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>In the week ending July 3, raw steel production rose by 1.0% and was little changed in the week ending July 10. It is currently now just 2.3% shy of its pre-pandemic average.</li> <li>The oil and gas rig count increased by four to 479 during the week ending July 9. Two of the four new rigs were oil rigs, bringing the count up to 378. This is well below the pre-pandemic average despite oil prices running at elevated levels on the back of strong demand.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a74ffea4fe7cff1d8d3a478c0b77e6b\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"391\">Real Estate<blockquote><ul><li>截至7月3日当周，粗钢产量上升1.0%，截至7月10日当周变化不大。目前仅比大流行前的平均水平低2.3%。</li><li>截至7月9日当周，石油和天然气钻井平台数量增加了4个，达到479个。四个新钻井平台中有两个是石油钻井平台，使总数达到378个。尽管需求强劲导致油价高位运行，但这仍远低于大流行前的平均水平。</li></ul>房地产</blockquote> <ul> <li>Mortgage purchase applications continue to slide, declining by 1.1% in the week ending July 2. Limited supply continues to be cited as a key reason for the decline in sales, although the real reason is soaring prices and lack of affordability. Still after being a strong positive early on in the pandemic recovery, the residential sector is becoming a drag on growth.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9e12cdd92b67464ab39b619d462364\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"389\"><blockquote><ul><li>抵押贷款购买申请继续下滑，截至7月2日当周下降1.1%。供应有限继续被认为是销量下降的一个关键原因，尽管真正的原因是价格飙升和缺乏负担能力。尽管在疫情复苏初期表现强劲，但住宅行业正在成为增长的拖累。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>Office occupancy levels fell during the week ending July 7 due to the July 4 holiday. Across 10 major metro areas, average office occupancy fell by 1.7ppt to 31.0%. This is likely to reverse in the following week as the holiday effects fade.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e098a794f4646a15d20287ea186a822\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"396\"><blockquote><ul><li>由于7月4日假期，截至7月7日的一周，办公室入住率下降。在10个主要都会区，平均写字楼入住率下降1.7个百分点至31.0%。随着假期影响的消退，这种情况可能会在下周逆转。</li></ul></blockquote> In short, the media is doing all in its power to drum up panic for what appears to be another upcoming stimmy-triggering lockdown, but at least so far it is failing to impact consumer behavior.<blockquote>简而言之，媒体正在尽其所能为另一场即将到来的令人兴奋的封锁制造恐慌，但至少到目前为止，它未能影响消费者行为。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Consumers So Far Completely Undeterred By Delta Variant<blockquote>迄今为止，美国消费者完全没有被德尔塔变异毒株吓倒</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Consumers So Far Completely Undeterred By Delta Variant<blockquote>迄今为止，美国消费者完全没有被德尔塔变异毒株吓倒</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-15 08:37\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nDespite the recent jump in Delta variant covid cases in the US, economic data continues to show that consumers are actively spending on services and remain undeterred despite the media's best efforts to spark a fresh pre-lockdown panic.<blockquote>尽管最近美国德尔塔变异毒株新冠病例激增，但经济数据继续显示，消费者正在积极地在服务上支出，尽管媒体尽最大努力引发新的封锁前恐慌，但他们仍然没有被吓倒。</blockquote> First, a quick update on the current state of the virus in the US.<blockquote>首先，快速更新一下美国的病毒现状。</blockquote> Average daily virus cases jumped by 28.3% to 17.4k during the week ending July 9, and the 7-day moving average of virus cases increased to 17.4k during the week ending July 9. This is the highest level since May 31 and a 28.3% increase from the week ending July 2. As BofA note this morning, from July 2 to July 9, forty states have recorded growth in daily cases and states where vaccine rates are lower are experiencing faster case growth. As shown in the chart below, the bank finds that growth in virus cases and&nbsp; vaccination rates at the state level exhibit a negative relationship.<blockquote>在截至7月9日的一周内，平均每日病毒病例跃升28.3%至17.4 K，在截至7月9日的一周内，病毒病例的7天移动平均值增至17.4 K。这是自5月31日以来的最高水平，比截至7月2日的一周增长了28.3%。正如美国银行今天上午指出的，从7月2日到7月9日，40个州的每日病例有所增长，疫苗接种率较低的州病例增长较快。如下图所示，世行发现州一级病毒病例的增长和疫苗接种率呈负相关关系。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8f8ff33b4322b837d74df703dbe8ecf\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"396\">Along with low vaccine rates, the Delta variant, which is more infectious than earlier strains, has driven the rise in cases of late. Outbreak.info estimates that the variant accounted for 20% of virus cases over the 60 days ending July 7.<blockquote>除了疫苗接种率低之外，比早期毒株更具传染性的德尔塔变异毒株病毒也导致了最近病例的增加。Outbreak.info估计，在截至7月7日的60天内，该变种占病毒病例的20%。</blockquote> Meantime, vaccine rates have slowed appreciably with the 7-day average of jabs dropping to just about 500k. This was likely due in part to the July 4 holiday; however, shots have been on a downward trend since April.<blockquote>与此同时，疫苗接种率明显放缓，7天平均接种量降至约50万次。这可能部分是由于7月4日假期；然而，自4月份以来，镜头一直呈下降趋势。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d18acf4b8e419fca5e8c613ab16b4376\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"430\">Regardless, the US remains one of the most vaccinated countries,with 67.7% of its adult population and 88.7% of those 65 and older having received at least one shot to date.This, BofA concedes, should limit the spread of the Delta variant. However, the bank warns that the uneven vaccination rates across states and within states means that there are areas that have little protection against this highly infectious variant. Moreover, the longer the virus lingers the greater the risk for a vaccine-resistant variant to develop. In short: whether be decree or due to simple population dynamics, Covid-19 could be with us for the foreseeable future.<blockquote>无论如何，美国仍然是接种疫苗最多的国家之一，迄今为止，67.7%的成年人口和88.7%的65岁及以上人口至少接种过一次疫苗。美国银行承认，这应该会限制德尔塔变异毒株的蔓延。然而，世行警告说，各州之间和州内的疫苗接种率不均意味着有些地区对这种高传染性变种几乎没有保护。此外，病毒停留的时间越长，出现疫苗抗性变异的风险就越大。简而言之：无论是法令还是由于简单的人口动态，新冠肺炎可能会在可预见的未来与我们同在。</blockquote> In light of this data,BofA thinks we will continue to see a surge in cases over the near-term, but does not expect restrictions on activity to be broadly imposed again.This means that while the downside risk to the economy is relatively low, the bank's economists will continue to reevaluate this view as things can change in a matter of days when it comes to the virus.<blockquote>根据这一数据，美国银行认为，短期内病例将继续激增，但预计不会再次广泛实施活动限制。这意味着，虽然经济的下行风险相对较低，但该行的经济学家将继续重新评估这一观点，因为在病毒方面，情况可能会在几天内发生变化。</blockquote> Economic activity<blockquote>经济活动</blockquote> The NY Fed weekly economic index came in at 9.8% yoy in the week ending July 10, down a bit the 10.0% reading in the prior week.Looking at 2Q, the weekly index from the Fed predicts 2Q growth of 11.1% yoy, which would imply 2.9% qoq saar. This would be a significant deceleration from 6.4% in 1Qand is below current consensus forecasts of 10.0% qoq saar or 13.0% yoy. That said, the NY fed index has tended to undershoot actual growth.<blockquote>截至7月10日当周，纽约联储每周经济指数同比增长9.8%，略低于前一周的10.0%。从第二季度来看，美联储每周指数预测第二季度同比增长11.1%，这意味着saar环比增长2.9%。这将比第一季度的6.4%显着减速低于当前普遍预测的环比10.0%或同比13.0%。也就是说，纽约联储指数往往低于实际增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6b7d3b219d45a1ccc472990cd6d3574\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"437\"><blockquote></blockquote> Consumer activity<blockquote>消费者活动</blockquote> According to BofA,consumers’ appetite for services has so far been undeterred by the rise in cases.Dining out and air travel both increased by 1.2% and 2.9% respectively during the week ending July 12. Movie box office receipts also remained elevated as F9: the Fast saga was the top earner for a second consecutive week.&nbsp; Here are the details:<blockquote>据美国银行称，到目前为止，消费者对服务的兴趣并没有因为病例的增加而减弱。截至7月12日当周，外出就餐和航空旅行分别增长了1.2%和2.9%。电影票房收入也保持高位，连续第二周成为票房冠军。以下是详细信息：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Time spent at home increased during the week ending July 9 given the July 4 holiday. Similarly, visitors to parks surged by 15.7% over the week and visitors to workplaces fell 7.7%. That said, one should ignore these big moves due to the holiday.</li> <li>The 7-day average of daily air passenger traffic increased by 2.9% to 2.032M during the week ending July 12. This was 79.3% of traffic during the same week in 2019, down from 81.1% in the prior week. Leisure travel has rebounded quickly, while corporate and international travel continue to lag. That said, BofA strategists noted that corporate travel is trending higher.International travel remains depressed, and the Delta variant is likely to keep a lid on international travel for the foreseeable future.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161637f140c4839c642d16e00d49efbf\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"793\"><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于7月4日假期，截至7月9日的一周内，在家度过的时间有所增加。同样，公园游客本周激增15.7%，工作场所游客下降7.7%。也就是说，由于假期，人们应该忽略这些大动作。</li><li>截至7月12日当周，7天日均航空客运量增长2.9%至203.2万人次。这是2019年同一周流量的79.3%，低于前一周的81.1%。休闲旅游快速反弹，企业和国际旅游持续滞后。尽管如此，美国银行策略师指出，商务旅行呈上升趋势。国际旅行仍然低迷，在可预见的未来，德尔塔变异毒株可能会限制国际旅行。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>Seated diners on the OpenTable network were down 7.8% from 2019 during the week ending July 12. This was up 1.2% from the prior week as weekly increases in the South and West offset declines in the Northeast and Midwest. We continue to expect dining out to approach 2019 levels, but nascent concerns over the Delta variant could start to affect consumers’ willingness to ear out even if they are vaccinated.</li> <li>Motor gasoline demand for the week ending July 2 topped its 2017-2019 weekly average for the first time since the start of the pandemic. This was likely due in part to seasonal effects from the holiday.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe113fa6aab43c176be77814a095132\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"380\"><blockquote><ul><li>截至7月12日当周，OpenTable网络上的就餐人数比2019年下降了7.8%。这比前一周增长了1.2%，因为南部和西部的每周增长抵消了东北部和中西部的下降。我们仍然预计外出就餐将接近2019年的水平，但对德尔塔变异毒株的新担忧可能会开始影响消费者外出就餐的意愿，即使他们接种了疫苗。</li><li>截至7月2日当周车用汽油需求自疫情爆发以来首次超过2017-2019年周平均水平。这可能部分是由于假期的季节性影响。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>Movie box office receipts remained elevated but declined from last week’s pandemic high. Receipts fell to $115M from $140M withF9: The Fast Sagaremaining the number 1 release. Average receipts per film are running above pre-pandemic levels due to the limited number of movie releases. This suggests demand is strong but supply has some catching up to do.</li> </ul> Labor market<blockquote><ul><li>电影票房收入仍然很高，但较上周的疫情高点有所下降。收入从1.4亿美元降至1.15亿美元F9：快速传奇剩下的第一个版本。由于电影上映数量有限，每部电影的平均收入高于大流行前的水平。这表明需求强劲，但供应需要迎头赶上。</li></ul>劳动力市场</blockquote> <ul> <li>The employment data tracked by BofA continues to be affected by the holidays as data from Homebase and the American staffing index are only available through July 11 and 3 respectively. Here are some more details:</li> <li>The data on small business employment from Homebase remains affected by the July 4 holiday as the latest available data are only through July 11, and we look at the 7-day moving average to smooth through week-day noise. Next week the data will be more informative as we’ll have the first estimate of the employment figures for the July payroll week.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c88f4b28837affceda16db7940d9ada5\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"422\"><blockquote><ul><li>美国银行追踪的就业数据继续受到假期的影响，因为Homebase和美国人员指数的数据分别只能在7月11日和3日之前获得。以下是更多细节：</li><li>Homebase的小企业就业数据仍然受到7月4日假期的影响，因为最新的可用数据仅截至7月11日，我们关注7天移动平均线来消除工作日的噪音。下周的数据将提供更多信息，因为我们将对7月份就业数据进行首次估计。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>Initial jobless claims were little changed at 373k in the week ending July 3rd. It’s possible the holidays added a little noise to the data and could also distort the coming release. Additionally, auto companies forgoing typical summer production slowdowns could also affect the data.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9e87a0f799e8f644b34bb86bb8b162\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"427\"><blockquote><ul><li>截至7月3日当周，首次申请失业救济人数变化不大，为37.3万人。假期可能会给数据增加一些噪音，也可能会扭曲即将发布的数据。此外，汽车公司放弃典型的夏季生产放缓也可能影响数据。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>Through the first 27 weeks of the year, high propensity business applications are up 40.5% from the same period in 2019. This should be a positive source of labor demand over the near-term as new businesses start hiring. Additionally, it could also help drive productivity.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f231501772b070b9b56c7d72bbdf669\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"410\"><blockquote><ul><li>今年前27周，高倾向业务申请比2019年同期增长了40.5%。随着新企业开始招聘，这应该是近期劳动力需求的积极来源。此外，它还有助于提高生产力。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>The American Staffing index recorded an 8.4% increase from two years ago during the week ending July 3rd. It’s likely that the outsized increase is a result of the timing of the July 4 holiday in 2019 vs. 2021. That said, the index continues to be a positive signal for labor demand and hiring activity in the temporary help sector.</li> </ul> Industrial activity<blockquote><ul><li>截至7月3日当周，美国人员配备指数较两年前增长8.4%。大幅增长很可能是2019年7月4日假期与2021年7月4日假期时间的结果。也就是说，该指数仍然是临时帮助行业劳动力需求和招聘活动的积极信号。</li></ul>工业活动</blockquote> <ul> <li>Railroad traffic rebounded with and 10.9% increase during the week ending July 3, more than reversing the 5.0% drop in the prior week. The rebound was driven by a surge in carloads of coal, motor vehicle and parts, and chemicals.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f288d1140c002ec49a1e54e32cad1a\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"386\"><blockquote><ul><li>截至7月3日当周，铁路运输量反弹，增长10.9%，扭转了前一周5.0%的跌幅。煤炭、机动车辆及零部件以及化学品装车量激增推动了这一反弹。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>In the week ending July 3, raw steel production rose by 1.0% and was little changed in the week ending July 10. It is currently now just 2.3% shy of its pre-pandemic average.</li> <li>The oil and gas rig count increased by four to 479 during the week ending July 9. Two of the four new rigs were oil rigs, bringing the count up to 378. This is well below the pre-pandemic average despite oil prices running at elevated levels on the back of strong demand.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a74ffea4fe7cff1d8d3a478c0b77e6b\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"391\">Real Estate<blockquote><ul><li>截至7月3日当周，粗钢产量上升1.0%，截至7月10日当周变化不大。目前仅比大流行前的平均水平低2.3%。</li><li>截至7月9日当周，石油和天然气钻井平台数量增加了4个，达到479个。四个新钻井平台中有两个是石油钻井平台，使总数达到378个。尽管需求强劲导致油价高位运行，但这仍远低于大流行前的平均水平。</li></ul>房地产</blockquote> <ul> <li>Mortgage purchase applications continue to slide, declining by 1.1% in the week ending July 2. Limited supply continues to be cited as a key reason for the decline in sales, although the real reason is soaring prices and lack of affordability. Still after being a strong positive early on in the pandemic recovery, the residential sector is becoming a drag on growth.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9e12cdd92b67464ab39b619d462364\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"389\"><blockquote><ul><li>抵押贷款购买申请继续下滑，截至7月2日当周下降1.1%。供应有限继续被认为是销量下降的一个关键原因，尽管真正的原因是价格飙升和缺乏负担能力。尽管在疫情复苏初期表现强劲，但住宅行业正在成为增长的拖累。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>Office occupancy levels fell during the week ending July 7 due to the July 4 holiday. Across 10 major metro areas, average office occupancy fell by 1.7ppt to 31.0%. This is likely to reverse in the following week as the holiday effects fade.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e098a794f4646a15d20287ea186a822\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"396\"><blockquote><ul><li>由于7月4日假期，截至7月7日的一周，办公室入住率下降。在10个主要都会区，平均写字楼入住率下降1.7个百分点至31.0%。随着假期影响的消退，这种情况可能会在下周逆转。</li></ul></blockquote> In short, the media is doing all in its power to drum up panic for what appears to be another upcoming stimmy-triggering lockdown, but at least so far it is failing to impact consumer behavior.<blockquote>简而言之，媒体正在尽其所能为另一场即将到来的令人兴奋的封锁制造恐慌，但至少到目前为止，它未能影响消费者行为。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-consumers-so-far-completely-undeterred-delta-variant\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-consumers-so-far-completely-undeterred-delta-variant","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158066571","content_text":"Despite the recent jump in Delta variant covid cases in the US, economic data continues to show that consumers are actively spending on services and remain undeterred despite the media's best efforts to spark a fresh pre-lockdown panic.\nFirst, a quick update on the current state of the virus in the US.\nAverage daily virus cases jumped by 28.3% to 17.4k during the week ending July 9, and the 7-day moving average of virus cases increased to 17.4k during the week ending July 9. This is the highest level since May 31 and a 28.3% increase from the week ending July 2. As BofA note this morning, from July 2 to July 9, forty states have recorded growth in daily cases and states where vaccine rates are lower are experiencing faster case growth. As shown in the chart below, the bank finds that growth in virus cases and  vaccination rates at the state level exhibit a negative relationship.\nAlong with low vaccine rates, the Delta variant, which is more infectious than earlier strains, has driven the rise in cases of late. Outbreak.info estimates that the variant accounted for 20% of virus cases over the 60 days ending July 7.\nMeantime, vaccine rates have slowed appreciably with the 7-day average of jabs dropping to just about 500k. This was likely due in part to the July 4 holiday; however, shots have been on a downward trend since April.\nRegardless, the US remains one of the most vaccinated countries,with 67.7% of its adult population and 88.7% of those 65 and older having received at least one shot to date.This, BofA concedes, should limit the spread of the Delta variant. However, the bank warns that the uneven vaccination rates across states and within states means that there are areas that have little protection against this highly infectious variant. Moreover, the longer the virus lingers the greater the risk for a vaccine-resistant variant to develop. In short: whether be decree or due to simple population dynamics, Covid-19 could be with us for the foreseeable future.\nIn light of this data,BofA thinks we will continue to see a surge in cases over the near-term, but does not expect restrictions on activity to be broadly imposed again.This means that while the downside risk to the economy is relatively low, the bank's economists will continue to reevaluate this view as things can change in a matter of days when it comes to the virus.\nEconomic activity\nThe NY Fed weekly economic index came in at 9.8% yoy in the week ending July 10, down a bit the 10.0% reading in the prior week.Looking at 2Q, the weekly index from the Fed predicts 2Q growth of 11.1% yoy, which would imply 2.9% qoq saar. This would be a significant deceleration from 6.4% in 1Qand is below current consensus forecasts of 10.0% qoq saar or 13.0% yoy. That said, the NY fed index has tended to undershoot actual growth.\n\nConsumer activity\nAccording to BofA,consumers’ appetite for services has so far been undeterred by the rise in cases.Dining out and air travel both increased by 1.2% and 2.9% respectively during the week ending July 12. Movie box office receipts also remained elevated as F9: the Fast saga was the top earner for a second consecutive week.  Here are the details:\n\nTime spent at home increased during the week ending July 9 given the July 4 holiday. Similarly, visitors to parks surged by 15.7% over the week and visitors to workplaces fell 7.7%. That said, one should ignore these big moves due to the holiday.\nThe 7-day average of daily air passenger traffic increased by 2.9% to 2.032M during the week ending July 12. This was 79.3% of traffic during the same week in 2019, down from 81.1% in the prior week. Leisure travel has rebounded quickly, while corporate and international travel continue to lag. That said, BofA strategists noted that corporate travel is trending higher.International travel remains depressed, and the Delta variant is likely to keep a lid on international travel for the foreseeable future.\n\n\n\nSeated diners on the OpenTable network were down 7.8% from 2019 during the week ending July 12. This was up 1.2% from the prior week as weekly increases in the South and West offset declines in the Northeast and Midwest. We continue to expect dining out to approach 2019 levels, but nascent concerns over the Delta variant could start to affect consumers’ willingness to ear out even if they are vaccinated.\nMotor gasoline demand for the week ending July 2 topped its 2017-2019 weekly average for the first time since the start of the pandemic. This was likely due in part to seasonal effects from the holiday.\n\n\n\nMovie box office receipts remained elevated but declined from last week’s pandemic high. Receipts fell to $115M from $140M withF9: The Fast Sagaremaining the number 1 release. Average receipts per film are running above pre-pandemic levels due to the limited number of movie releases. This suggests demand is strong but supply has some catching up to do.\n\nLabor market\n\nThe employment data tracked by BofA continues to be affected by the holidays as data from Homebase and the American staffing index are only available through July 11 and 3 respectively. Here are some more details:\nThe data on small business employment from Homebase remains affected by the July 4 holiday as the latest available data are only through July 11, and we look at the 7-day moving average to smooth through week-day noise. Next week the data will be more informative as we’ll have the first estimate of the employment figures for the July payroll week.\n\n\n\nInitial jobless claims were little changed at 373k in the week ending July 3rd. It’s possible the holidays added a little noise to the data and could also distort the coming release. Additionally, auto companies forgoing typical summer production slowdowns could also affect the data.\n\n\n\nThrough the first 27 weeks of the year, high propensity business applications are up 40.5% from the same period in 2019. This should be a positive source of labor demand over the near-term as new businesses start hiring. Additionally, it could also help drive productivity.\n\n\n\nThe American Staffing index recorded an 8.4% increase from two years ago during the week ending July 3rd. It’s likely that the outsized increase is a result of the timing of the July 4 holiday in 2019 vs. 2021. That said, the index continues to be a positive signal for labor demand and hiring activity in the temporary help sector.\n\nIndustrial activity\n\nRailroad traffic rebounded with and 10.9% increase during the week ending July 3, more than reversing the 5.0% drop in the prior week. The rebound was driven by a surge in carloads of coal, motor vehicle and parts, and chemicals.\n\n\n\nIn the week ending July 3, raw steel production rose by 1.0% and was little changed in the week ending July 10. It is currently now just 2.3% shy of its pre-pandemic average.\nThe oil and gas rig count increased by four to 479 during the week ending July 9. Two of the four new rigs were oil rigs, bringing the count up to 378. This is well below the pre-pandemic average despite oil prices running at elevated levels on the back of strong demand.\n\nReal Estate\n\nMortgage purchase applications continue to slide, declining by 1.1% in the week ending July 2. Limited supply continues to be cited as a key reason for the decline in sales, although the real reason is soaring prices and lack of affordability. Still after being a strong positive early on in the pandemic recovery, the residential sector is becoming a drag on growth.\n\n\n\nOffice occupancy levels fell during the week ending July 7 due to the July 4 holiday. Across 10 major metro areas, average office occupancy fell by 1.7ppt to 31.0%. This is likely to reverse in the following week as the holiday effects fade.\n\n\nIn short, the media is doing all in its power to drum up panic for what appears to be another upcoming stimmy-triggering lockdown, but at least so far it is failing to impact consumer behavior.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":298,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":26,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/144482653"}