Fantastic_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-07-14

Fantastic

Can the Fed avoid negative interest rates in the next downturn?<blockquote>美联储能否在下一次低迷时期避免负利率？</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":145214261,"tweetId":"145214261","gmtCreate":1626225316153,"gmtModify":1633928880453,"author":{"id":4087685411789360,"idStr":"4087685411789360","authorId":4087685411789360,"authorIdStr":"4087685411789360","name":"Des123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba7602b4b7e3538c8a7d687463663003","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Fantastic</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Fantastic</body></html>","text":"Fantastic","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145214261","repostId":1171237961,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171237961","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626221936,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171237961?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 08:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can the Fed avoid negative interest rates in the next downturn?<blockquote>美联储能否在下一次低迷时期避免负利率？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171237961","media":"yahoo","summary":"The Federal Reserve managed to avoid turning to negative interest rates through the pandemic-induced","content":"The Federal Reserve managed to avoid turning to negative interest rates through the pandemic-induced recession of 2020. But if the economy faces another downturn, will the central bank be backed into short-term borrowing rates below zero?<blockquote>美联储在2020年大流行引发的衰退中成功避免了转向负利率。但如果经济再次面临低迷，央行会支持将短期借款利率降至零以下吗？</blockquote> In aUBS surveyof almost 30 central banks around the world, 21% of respondents said they could see the Fed turning to negative interest rates if needed.<blockquote>在aUBS对全球近30家央行的调查中，21%的受访者表示，如果需要，他们可能会看到美联储转向负利率。</blockquote> The concern: With U.S. short-term rates yet again backed up at near-zero, a Fed that may beslower to raise interest rateswill not have the room to again cut rates in the next crisis.<blockquote>令人担忧的是：随着美国短期利率再次维持在接近于零的水平，美联储可能会降低利率以提高利率，但在下一次危机中将没有再次降息的空间。</blockquote> But Fed officials, who managed to avoid the tool through an economic shutdown of unprecedented scale, have made it clear that negative interest rates are low on their lists of preferred policy tools.<blockquote>但美联储官员通过规模空前的经济停摆成功避免了这一工具，他们明确表示，负利率在他们首选的政策工具清单上排名靠后。</blockquote> “Negative rates I think have a worse cost-benefit relationship than the other tools that we have,” New York Fed President John Williams told reporters on Monday morning.<blockquote>纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯周一上午对记者表示：“我认为负利率的成本效益关系比我们拥有的其他工具更差。”</blockquote> AnOctober 2019 discussionof negative rates noted that all of the Fed’s policy-setting members disliked the idea of implementing the policy in the U.S.<blockquote>2019年10月关于负利率的讨论指出，所有美联储政策制定成员都不喜欢在美国实施该政策的想法。</blockquote> “The committee’s view on negative rates really has not changed. This is not something we’re looking at,” Powell said in May 2020.<blockquote>鲍威尔在2020年5月表示：“委员会对负利率的看法确实没有改变。这不是我们正在考虑的事情。”</blockquote> Still, the central bank hasn’t explicitly ruled out its possible use in the future.<blockquote>尽管如此，央行尚未明确排除其未来可能使用的可能性。</blockquote> ‘Rather stay out of that game’<blockquote>“宁愿置身事外”</blockquote> Negative interest rate policies, such as those deployed by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, attempt to stimulate the economy by penalizing banks for parking money at the central bank. The idea is to push banks to lend into the economy by further discouraging saving.<blockquote>负利率政策，如欧洲央行和日本央行部署的负利率政策，试图通过惩罚银行将资金存放在央行来刺激经济。这个想法是通过进一步抑制储蓄来推动银行向经济放贷。</blockquote> But Fed officials have worried about the distortions that could come with negative short-term rates in the U.S., where the importance of U.S. government debt markets and the U.S. dollar could have wide-reaching and international financial stability consequences.<blockquote>但美联储官员担心美国短期负利率可能带来的扭曲，美国政府债务市场和美元的重要性可能会对国际金融稳定产生广泛影响。</blockquote> “You’ve got Japan and Europe mired in negative interest rates,” St. Louis Fed President James Bullardtold Yahoo Finance on May 24. “We’d rather stay out of that game.”<blockquote>圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德(James Bullard)5月24日对雅虎财经表示：“日本和欧洲陷入了负利率的泥潭。”“我们宁愿置身事外。”</blockquote> UBS noted that the $4.5 trillion money market, which is heavily reliant on short-term rates, is too large — and too interconnected to public and private sectors — to be toyed around with.<blockquote>瑞银指出，严重依赖短期利率的4.5万亿美元货币市场规模太大，而且与公共和私营部门联系太紧密，不容玩弄。</blockquote> “Implementing a negative interest rate policy in the U.S. would be too much of a disruptor (not the same issue overseas),” UBS Chief Investment Officer Solita Marcelli wrote.<blockquote>瑞银首席投资官Solita Marcelli写道：“在美国实施负利率政策会造成太大的干扰（海外不是同样的问题）。”</blockquote> The playbook in the next crisis might therefore look similar to the one used last year: near-zero rates, aggressive asset purchases, and an armada of liquidity facilities to backstop various financial markets.<blockquote>因此，下一场危机的剧本可能与去年相似：接近零的利率、激进的资产购买以及支持各种金融市场的大量流动性工具。</blockquote> Williams specifically said the Fed's purchases of U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities have been \"critically important.\" The Fed has only recently begun conversations about slowing the pace of those purchases, as the central bank's balance sheet soars past the $8 trillion mark.<blockquote>威廉姆斯特别表示，美联储购买美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券“至关重要”。随着美联储的资产负债表飙升超过8万亿美元大关，美联储最近才开始讨论放缓这些购买步伐。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7accbdd2071471c525d7cd6ecce430ae\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"272\"><blockquote></blockquote> “These tools, they’re not really as unconventional as they used to be,” Williams said Monday.<blockquote>威廉姆斯周一表示：“这些工具并不像以前那样非传统。”</blockquote> The UBS survey notes that the Fed could still get creative if it needed to. About 45% of respondents said they could see the Fed buying stocks and about 65% said they could see the Fed targeting medium- to longer-dated bond yields (through a tool calledyield curve control) in the next crisis.<blockquote>瑞银的调查指出，如果需要，美联储仍然可以发挥创造力。约45%的受访者表示，他们可能会看到美联储购买股票，约65%的受访者表示，他们可能会看到美联储在下一次危机中瞄准中长期债券收益率（通过一种称为收益率曲线控制的工具）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1584348713084","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can the Fed avoid negative interest rates in the next downturn?<blockquote>美联储能否在下一次低迷时期避免负利率？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan the Fed avoid negative interest rates in the next downturn?<blockquote>美联储能否在下一次低迷时期避免负利率？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nyahoo2021-07-14 08:18\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe Federal Reserve managed to avoid turning to negative interest rates through the pandemic-induced recession of 2020. But if the economy faces another downturn, will the central bank be backed into short-term borrowing rates below zero?<blockquote>美联储在2020年大流行引发的衰退中成功避免了转向负利率。但如果经济再次面临低迷，央行会支持将短期借款利率降至零以下吗？</blockquote> In aUBS surveyof almost 30 central banks around the world, 21% of respondents said they could see the Fed turning to negative interest rates if needed.<blockquote>在aUBS对全球近30家央行的调查中，21%的受访者表示，如果需要，他们可能会看到美联储转向负利率。</blockquote> The concern: With U.S. short-term rates yet again backed up at near-zero, a Fed that may beslower to raise interest rateswill not have the room to again cut rates in the next crisis.<blockquote>令人担忧的是：随着美国短期利率再次维持在接近于零的水平，美联储可能会降低利率以提高利率，但在下一次危机中将没有再次降息的空间。</blockquote> But Fed officials, who managed to avoid the tool through an economic shutdown of unprecedented scale, have made it clear that negative interest rates are low on their lists of preferred policy tools.<blockquote>但美联储官员通过规模空前的经济停摆成功避免了这一工具，他们明确表示，负利率在他们首选的政策工具清单上排名靠后。</blockquote> “Negative rates I think have a worse cost-benefit relationship than the other tools that we have,” New York Fed President John Williams told reporters on Monday morning.<blockquote>纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯周一上午对记者表示：“我认为负利率的成本效益关系比我们拥有的其他工具更差。”</blockquote> AnOctober 2019 discussionof negative rates noted that all of the Fed’s policy-setting members disliked the idea of implementing the policy in the U.S.<blockquote>2019年10月关于负利率的讨论指出，所有美联储政策制定成员都不喜欢在美国实施该政策的想法。</blockquote> “The committee’s view on negative rates really has not changed. This is not something we’re looking at,” Powell said in May 2020.<blockquote>鲍威尔在2020年5月表示：“委员会对负利率的看法确实没有改变。这不是我们正在考虑的事情。”</blockquote> Still, the central bank hasn’t explicitly ruled out its possible use in the future.<blockquote>尽管如此，央行尚未明确排除其未来可能使用的可能性。</blockquote> ‘Rather stay out of that game’<blockquote>“宁愿置身事外”</blockquote> Negative interest rate policies, such as those deployed by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, attempt to stimulate the economy by penalizing banks for parking money at the central bank. The idea is to push banks to lend into the economy by further discouraging saving.<blockquote>负利率政策，如欧洲央行和日本央行部署的负利率政策，试图通过惩罚银行将资金存放在央行来刺激经济。这个想法是通过进一步抑制储蓄来推动银行向经济放贷。</blockquote> But Fed officials have worried about the distortions that could come with negative short-term rates in the U.S., where the importance of U.S. government debt markets and the U.S. dollar could have wide-reaching and international financial stability consequences.<blockquote>但美联储官员担心美国短期负利率可能带来的扭曲，美国政府债务市场和美元的重要性可能会对国际金融稳定产生广泛影响。</blockquote> “You’ve got Japan and Europe mired in negative interest rates,” St. Louis Fed President James Bullardtold Yahoo Finance on May 24. “We’d rather stay out of that game.”<blockquote>圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德(James Bullard)5月24日对雅虎财经表示：“日本和欧洲陷入了负利率的泥潭。”“我们宁愿置身事外。”</blockquote> UBS noted that the $4.5 trillion money market, which is heavily reliant on short-term rates, is too large — and too interconnected to public and private sectors — to be toyed around with.<blockquote>瑞银指出，严重依赖短期利率的4.5万亿美元货币市场规模太大，而且与公共和私营部门联系太紧密，不容玩弄。</blockquote> “Implementing a negative interest rate policy in the U.S. would be too much of a disruptor (not the same issue overseas),” UBS Chief Investment Officer Solita Marcelli wrote.<blockquote>瑞银首席投资官Solita Marcelli写道：“在美国实施负利率政策会造成太大的干扰（海外不是同样的问题）。”</blockquote> The playbook in the next crisis might therefore look similar to the one used last year: near-zero rates, aggressive asset purchases, and an armada of liquidity facilities to backstop various financial markets.<blockquote>因此，下一场危机的剧本可能与去年相似：接近零的利率、激进的资产购买以及支持各种金融市场的大量流动性工具。</blockquote> Williams specifically said the Fed's purchases of U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities have been \"critically important.\" The Fed has only recently begun conversations about slowing the pace of those purchases, as the central bank's balance sheet soars past the $8 trillion mark.<blockquote>威廉姆斯特别表示，美联储购买美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券“至关重要”。随着美联储的资产负债表飙升超过8万亿美元大关，美联储最近才开始讨论放缓这些购买步伐。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7accbdd2071471c525d7cd6ecce430ae\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"272\"><blockquote></blockquote> “These tools, they’re not really as unconventional as they used to be,” Williams said Monday.<blockquote>威廉姆斯周一表示：“这些工具并不像以前那样非传统。”</blockquote> The UBS survey notes that the Fed could still get creative if it needed to. About 45% of respondents said they could see the Fed buying stocks and about 65% said they could see the Fed targeting medium- to longer-dated bond yields (through a tool calledyield curve control) in the next crisis.<blockquote>瑞银的调查指出，如果需要，美联储仍然可以发挥创造力。约45%的受访者表示，他们可能会看到美联储购买股票，约65%的受访者表示，他们可能会看到美联储在下一次危机中瞄准中长期债券收益率（通过一种称为收益率曲线控制的工具）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/can-the-fed-avoid-negative-interest-rates-in-the-next-downturn-133021653.html\">yahoo</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/can-the-fed-avoid-negative-interest-rates-in-the-next-downturn-133021653.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171237961","content_text":"The Federal Reserve managed to avoid turning to negative interest rates through the pandemic-induced recession of 2020. But if the economy faces another downturn, will the central bank be backed into short-term borrowing rates below zero?\nIn aUBS surveyof almost 30 central banks around the world, 21% of respondents said they could see the Fed turning to negative interest rates if needed.\nThe concern: With U.S. short-term rates yet again backed up at near-zero, a Fed that may beslower to raise interest rateswill not have the room to again cut rates in the next crisis.\nBut Fed officials, who managed to avoid the tool through an economic shutdown of unprecedented scale, have made it clear that negative interest rates are low on their lists of preferred policy tools.\n“Negative rates I think have a worse cost-benefit relationship than the other tools that we have,” New York Fed President John Williams told reporters on Monday morning.\nAnOctober 2019 discussionof negative rates noted that all of the Fed’s policy-setting members disliked the idea of implementing the policy in the U.S.\n“The committee’s view on negative rates really has not changed. This is not something we’re looking at,” Powell said in May 2020.\nStill, the central bank hasn’t explicitly ruled out its possible use in the future.\n‘Rather stay out of that game’\nNegative interest rate policies, such as those deployed by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, attempt to stimulate the economy by penalizing banks for parking money at the central bank. The idea is to push banks to lend into the economy by further discouraging saving.\nBut Fed officials have worried about the distortions that could come with negative short-term rates in the U.S., where the importance of U.S. government debt markets and the U.S. dollar could have wide-reaching and international financial stability consequences.\n“You’ve got Japan and Europe mired in negative interest rates,” St. Louis Fed President James Bullardtold Yahoo Finance on May 24. “We’d rather stay out of that game.”\nUBS noted that the $4.5 trillion money market, which is heavily reliant on short-term rates, is too large — and too interconnected to public and private sectors — to be toyed around with.\n“Implementing a negative interest rate policy in the U.S. would be too much of a disruptor (not the same issue overseas),” UBS Chief Investment Officer Solita Marcelli wrote.\nThe playbook in the next crisis might therefore look similar to the one used last year: near-zero rates, aggressive asset purchases, and an armada of liquidity facilities to backstop various financial markets.\nWilliams specifically said the Fed's purchases of U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities have been \"critically important.\" The Fed has only recently begun conversations about slowing the pace of those purchases, as the central bank's balance sheet soars past the $8 trillion mark.\n\n“These tools, they’re not really as unconventional as they used to be,” Williams said Monday.\nThe UBS survey notes that the Fed could still get creative if it needed to. About 45% of respondents said they could see the Fed buying stocks and about 65% said they could see the Fed targeting medium- to longer-dated bond yields (through a tool calledyield curve control) in the next crisis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":407,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/145214261"}