Give and take_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-07-14

Give and take

This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快就会成为历史——因为公司将为了市场份额而牺牲利润</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":145414439,"tweetId":"145414439","gmtCreate":1626237124621,"gmtModify":1633928732257,"author":{"id":3581857937661016,"idStr":"3581857937661016","authorId":3581857937661016,"authorIdStr":"3581857937661016","name":"eikshuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6aa04fec0e75ff23c4317cddaaf08cb","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Give and take</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Give and take</body></html>","text":"Give and take","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145414439","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快就会成为历史——因为公司将为了市场份额而牺牲利润</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前处于或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在起，决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新工人和留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。增加在关键商品上的支出也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一种经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与竞争对手做生意，而竞争对手突然看到了通过降价脱颖而出的机会。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去了市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6 月份消费者价格指数上涨 0.9% 告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长得太多、太快，根本无法消化。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更高的费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>同样，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是一个安全的风险.目前!毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。几十年来，我们从未见过如此强大的定价权。过去 12 个月通胀率上升了 5.4%，为 2008 年夏季以来的最快涨幅，核心 CPI 大幅上涨 4.5%，为 1991 年以来的最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁到市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应放缓。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年，消费者被压抑的需求大量增加，为经济提供了很大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正在准备缩减抵押贷款支持证券和国债的购买规模。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>四是上半年供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的这种改善为大宗商品和制成品价格的下行奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我说这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但现在这样做还为时过早。美国新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的幽灵。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的峰值，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这种普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快就会成为历史——因为公司将为了市场份额而牺牲利润</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快就会成为历史——因为公司将为了市场份额而牺牲利润</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前处于或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在起，决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新工人和留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。增加在关键商品上的支出也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一种经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与竞争对手做生意，而竞争对手突然看到了通过降价脱颖而出的机会。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去了市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6 月份消费者价格指数上涨 0.9% 告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长得太多、太快，根本无法消化。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更高的费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>同样，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是一个安全的风险.目前!毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。几十年来，我们从未见过如此强大的定价权。过去 12 个月通胀率上升了 5.4%，为 2008 年夏季以来的最快涨幅，核心 CPI 大幅上涨 4.5%，为 1991 年以来的最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁到市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应放缓。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年，消费者被压抑的需求大量增加，为经济提供了很大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正在准备缩减抵押贷款支持证券和国债的购买规模。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>四是上半年供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的这种改善为大宗商品和制成品价格的下行奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我说这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但现在这样做还为时过早。美国新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的幽灵。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的峰值，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这种普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2624,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/145414439"}