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2021-07-14

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Consumer Price Inflation: Facts vs. Fiction<blockquote>消费者价格通胀：事实与虚构</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":145428971,"tweetId":"145428971","gmtCreate":1626239236693,"gmtModify":1633928712827,"author":{"id":3584489889481608,"idStr":"3584489889481608","authorId":3584489889481608,"authorIdStr":"3584489889481608","name":"Winnerwinner","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcd31182d24ff70cf4984d0d1a1a0398","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Very good info for all of us</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Very good info for all of us</body></html>","text":"Very good info for all of us","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145428971","repostId":1141016201,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141016201","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626232753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141016201?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 11:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Consumer Price Inflation: Facts vs. Fiction<blockquote>消费者价格通胀：事实与虚构</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141016201","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Consumer prices (CPI) increased at an annualized rate of 7.3% during the first six months of 2021, w","content":"Consumer prices (CPI) increased at an annualized rate of 7.3% during the first six months of 2021, while core consumer prices rose 6.2%. Both represent the most significant gains in several decades. As important as the rise in consumer prices is for the general public and policymakers, there still is a lot of misinformation and false statements about the current inflation cycle. Below are some of the misstatements and false impressions.<blockquote>2021年前六个月，消费者价格（CPI）年化增长率为7.3%，核心消费者价格上涨6.2%。两者都代表了几十年来最显着的收益。尽管消费者价格上涨对公众和政策制定者来说很重要，但关于当前通胀周期仍然存在许多错误信息和虚假陈述。以下是一些错误陈述和错误印象。</blockquote> CPI inflation of 2021 is not as high as that of the 1970s---False.It's not possible to compare inflation across several decades because of significant changes in measurement. The CPI of the 1970s included house price inflation, and the current measure does not.<blockquote>2021年的CPI通胀没有20世纪70年代高——假的。由于衡量标准发生了重大变化，不可能比较几十年的通货膨胀。20世纪70年代的CPI包含了房价通胀，而目前的衡量标准没有。</blockquote> Here's a simple illustration of how significant including and not including house price inflation can be. In 1979, CPI rose 11.3%, and that included a 14% increase in the price of existing homes. In the past twelve months, CPI has increased 5.4%, and the 23% increase in existing home prices is not part of that. Government statisticians have created an arbitrary owner rent index (up 2.3% in the past year) to replace house prices.<blockquote>这里有一个简单的例子，说明包括和不包括房价通胀有多重要。1979年，CPI上涨了11.3%，其中现房价格上涨了14%。在过去的12个月里，CPI上涨了5.4%，现房价格上涨23%并不在其中。政府统计人员创造了一个任意的业主租金指数（过去一年上涨了2.3%）来取代房价。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b76bd1d683d08e17201c0b78a1cba720\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"417\"><blockquote></blockquote> Owner housing accounts for nearly one-fourth of the CPI index, so one can guestimate how much current inflation would be if the same measurement practices were still in place. My guess is it would be double-digits.<blockquote>自有住房占CPI指数的近四分之一，因此人们可以猜测，如果同样的衡量做法仍然存在，当前的通货膨胀率会是多少。我猜会是两位数。</blockquote> Inflation in one market can be inferred by inflation in another market---False.Accurate price measurement can only occur if there is a direct sampling of a consumer item or market or a record of actual transactions. The current estimate of owners' rent comes from the tenant market. The tenant market and the owners' market are fundamentally different in character, location, and, most importantly, vacancy rates. As is the case nowadays, homeowners would base their rent estimates on the shrinking availability of homes on the market and housing inflation in a red-hot market. The current measurement approach creates a considerable error in the reported inflation statistics by relying on the tenant market for price inflation for owners.<blockquote>一个市场的通货膨胀可以通过另一个市场的通货膨胀来推断---假。只有在对消费品或市场进行直接抽样或有实际交易记录的情况下，才能进行准确的价格测量。目前业主对租金的预估来自租户市场。租户市场和业主市场在性质、位置以及最重要的空置率方面有着根本的不同。正如现在的情况一样，房主会根据市场上房屋供应量的减少和火热市场中的住房通胀来估算租金。目前的衡量方法依赖租户市场来衡量业主的价格通胀，从而在报告的通胀统计数据中产生了相当大的误差。</blockquote> Long-lived items are not part of the CPI---False. One of the arguments for not including house prices in the CPI is it a long-lived asset that consumers consume over a series of years. If CPI were only to have perishable items or used in a short time, then it would include food and energy and a few other products and services. But the CPI already includes items that consumers consume over long periods.<blockquote>长寿项目不是CPI的一部分---假不将房价纳入CPI的一个理由是，它是一种长期资产，消费者会在一系列年内消费。如果CPI只有易腐物品或在短时间内使用，那么它将包括食品和能源以及一些其他产品和服务。但CPI已经包括了消费者长期消费的项目。</blockquote> For example, used cars and trucks are in the CPI, and their life span can run more than a decade. That's not as long as housing, but it still is significant. Used cars and trucks prices have a weight of 3% in the CPI, and house prices have a zero weight. Does that make any sense?<blockquote>例如，二手车和卡车在CPI中，它们的寿命可以超过十年。这没有住房那么长，但仍然很重要。二手车和卡车价格在CPI中的权重为3%，房价的权重为零。这有意义吗？</blockquote> The inflation cycle of 2021 is unlike anything experienced in decades. It is fast and broad, and one of the most surprising features is that owners' housing costs are running less than half as fast as the core. Owners' rent index will accelerate in the coming months as market rents continue to increase.<blockquote>2021年的通胀周期不同于几十年来经历的任何通胀周期。它是快速和广泛的，最令人惊讶的特征之一是业主的住房成本运行速度不到核心的一半。随着市场租金继续上涨，未来几个月业主租金指数将加速上涨。</blockquote> In my view, policymakers are continuing to promote a public perception of inflation that is false.<blockquote>在我看来，政策制定者正在继续宣传公众对通胀的错误看法。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Consumer Price Inflation: Facts vs. Fiction<blockquote>消费者价格通胀：事实与虚构</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nConsumer Price Inflation: Facts vs. Fiction<blockquote>消费者价格通胀：事实与虚构</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-14 11:19\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nConsumer prices (CPI) increased at an annualized rate of 7.3% during the first six months of 2021, while core consumer prices rose 6.2%. Both represent the most significant gains in several decades. As important as the rise in consumer prices is for the general public and policymakers, there still is a lot of misinformation and false statements about the current inflation cycle. Below are some of the misstatements and false impressions.<blockquote>2021年前六个月，消费者价格（CPI）年化增长率为7.3%，核心消费者价格上涨6.2%。两者都代表了几十年来最显着的收益。尽管消费者价格上涨对公众和政策制定者来说很重要，但关于当前通胀周期仍然存在许多错误信息和虚假陈述。以下是一些错误陈述和错误印象。</blockquote> CPI inflation of 2021 is not as high as that of the 1970s---False.It's not possible to compare inflation across several decades because of significant changes in measurement. The CPI of the 1970s included house price inflation, and the current measure does not.<blockquote>2021年的CPI通胀没有20世纪70年代高——假的。由于衡量标准发生了重大变化，不可能比较几十年的通货膨胀。20世纪70年代的CPI包含了房价通胀，而目前的衡量标准没有。</blockquote> Here's a simple illustration of how significant including and not including house price inflation can be. In 1979, CPI rose 11.3%, and that included a 14% increase in the price of existing homes. In the past twelve months, CPI has increased 5.4%, and the 23% increase in existing home prices is not part of that. Government statisticians have created an arbitrary owner rent index (up 2.3% in the past year) to replace house prices.<blockquote>这里有一个简单的例子，说明包括和不包括房价通胀有多重要。1979年，CPI上涨了11.3%，其中现房价格上涨了14%。在过去的12个月里，CPI上涨了5.4%，现房价格上涨23%并不在其中。政府统计人员创造了一个任意的业主租金指数（过去一年上涨了2.3%）来取代房价。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b76bd1d683d08e17201c0b78a1cba720\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"417\"><blockquote></blockquote> Owner housing accounts for nearly one-fourth of the CPI index, so one can guestimate how much current inflation would be if the same measurement practices were still in place. My guess is it would be double-digits.<blockquote>自有住房占CPI指数的近四分之一，因此人们可以猜测，如果同样的衡量做法仍然存在，当前的通货膨胀率会是多少。我猜会是两位数。</blockquote> Inflation in one market can be inferred by inflation in another market---False.Accurate price measurement can only occur if there is a direct sampling of a consumer item or market or a record of actual transactions. The current estimate of owners' rent comes from the tenant market. The tenant market and the owners' market are fundamentally different in character, location, and, most importantly, vacancy rates. As is the case nowadays, homeowners would base their rent estimates on the shrinking availability of homes on the market and housing inflation in a red-hot market. The current measurement approach creates a considerable error in the reported inflation statistics by relying on the tenant market for price inflation for owners.<blockquote>一个市场的通货膨胀可以通过另一个市场的通货膨胀来推断---假。只有在对消费品或市场进行直接抽样或有实际交易记录的情况下，才能进行准确的价格测量。目前业主对租金的预估来自租户市场。租户市场和业主市场在性质、位置以及最重要的空置率方面有着根本的不同。正如现在的情况一样，房主会根据市场上房屋供应量的减少和火热市场中的住房通胀来估算租金。目前的衡量方法依赖租户市场来衡量业主的价格通胀，从而在报告的通胀统计数据中产生了相当大的误差。</blockquote> Long-lived items are not part of the CPI---False. One of the arguments for not including house prices in the CPI is it a long-lived asset that consumers consume over a series of years. If CPI were only to have perishable items or used in a short time, then it would include food and energy and a few other products and services. But the CPI already includes items that consumers consume over long periods.<blockquote>长寿项目不是CPI的一部分---假不将房价纳入CPI的一个理由是，它是一种长期资产，消费者会在一系列年内消费。如果CPI只有易腐物品或在短时间内使用，那么它将包括食品和能源以及一些其他产品和服务。但CPI已经包括了消费者长期消费的项目。</blockquote> For example, used cars and trucks are in the CPI, and their life span can run more than a decade. That's not as long as housing, but it still is significant. Used cars and trucks prices have a weight of 3% in the CPI, and house prices have a zero weight. Does that make any sense?<blockquote>例如，二手车和卡车在CPI中，它们的寿命可以超过十年。这没有住房那么长，但仍然很重要。二手车和卡车价格在CPI中的权重为3%，房价的权重为零。这有意义吗？</blockquote> The inflation cycle of 2021 is unlike anything experienced in decades. It is fast and broad, and one of the most surprising features is that owners' housing costs are running less than half as fast as the core. Owners' rent index will accelerate in the coming months as market rents continue to increase.<blockquote>2021年的通胀周期不同于几十年来经历的任何通胀周期。它是快速和广泛的，最令人惊讶的特征之一是业主的住房成本运行速度不到核心的一半。随着市场租金继续上涨，未来几个月业主租金指数将加速上涨。</blockquote> In my view, policymakers are continuing to promote a public perception of inflation that is false.<blockquote>在我看来，政策制定者正在继续宣传公众对通胀的错误看法。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/consumer-price-inflation-facts-vs-fiction\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/consumer-price-inflation-facts-vs-fiction","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141016201","content_text":"Consumer prices (CPI) increased at an annualized rate of 7.3% during the first six months of 2021, while core consumer prices rose 6.2%. Both represent the most significant gains in several decades. As important as the rise in consumer prices is for the general public and policymakers, there still is a lot of misinformation and false statements about the current inflation cycle. Below are some of the misstatements and false impressions.\nCPI inflation of 2021 is not as high as that of the 1970s---False.It's not possible to compare inflation across several decades because of significant changes in measurement. The CPI of the 1970s included house price inflation, and the current measure does not.\nHere's a simple illustration of how significant including and not including house price inflation can be. In 1979, CPI rose 11.3%, and that included a 14% increase in the price of existing homes. In the past twelve months, CPI has increased 5.4%, and the 23% increase in existing home prices is not part of that. Government statisticians have created an arbitrary owner rent index (up 2.3% in the past year) to replace house prices.\n\nOwner housing accounts for nearly one-fourth of the CPI index, so one can guestimate how much current inflation would be if the same measurement practices were still in place. My guess is it would be double-digits.\nInflation in one market can be inferred by inflation in another market---False.Accurate price measurement can only occur if there is a direct sampling of a consumer item or market or a record of actual transactions. The current estimate of owners' rent comes from the tenant market. The tenant market and the owners' market are fundamentally different in character, location, and, most importantly, vacancy rates. As is the case nowadays, homeowners would base their rent estimates on the shrinking availability of homes on the market and housing inflation in a red-hot market. The current measurement approach creates a considerable error in the reported inflation statistics by relying on the tenant market for price inflation for owners.\nLong-lived items are not part of the CPI---False. One of the arguments for not including house prices in the CPI is it a long-lived asset that consumers consume over a series of years. If CPI were only to have perishable items or used in a short time, then it would include food and energy and a few other products and services. But the CPI already includes items that consumers consume over long periods.\nFor example, used cars and trucks are in the CPI, and their life span can run more than a decade. That's not as long as housing, but it still is significant. Used cars and trucks prices have a weight of 3% in the CPI, and house prices have a zero weight. Does that make any sense?\nThe inflation cycle of 2021 is unlike anything experienced in decades. It is fast and broad, and one of the most surprising features is that owners' housing costs are running less than half as fast as the core. Owners' rent index will accelerate in the coming months as market rents continue to increase.\nIn my view, policymakers are continuing to promote a public perception of inflation that is false.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1608,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":22,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/145428971"}