估计财报发布后小涨

$迪士尼(DIS)$ 估计财报发布后会小涨：过去四年收益增长率平均23%，市盈率现在是19，值得持有；财报估计会超出预期，特别是最近几部迪斯尼以及旗下漫威的电影都大卖。

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

欢喜
2016-05-16
欢喜
问题三，cord-cutting是否对ESPN产生大的影响？短期会，中长期存在不确定性。从短期来看，市场上没有足够多的小节目包供选择，用户退订，这势必会影响ESPN，但并不是用户拒绝ESPN，而是拒绝有线电视。从中长期来看，在假设ESPN是一个受欢迎节目的前提下，而不是节目包的free rider，那么类似DISH这种服务会更多，可以实现ESPN和cord-cutting的双赢。
欢喜
2016-05-10
欢喜
如果ESPN的问题得到缓解，估计大涨。
- 欢喜回复九格:
  短期内流失用户，我觉得原因主要还是我说的问题三吧，毕竟签更多协议需要时间。但是不是加速我不清楚，具体原因也不太清楚。
- 九格回复欢喜:
  嗯，你这么一说也是，主要是除了网络媒体之外，ESPN其实没有真正成气候的对手。那么你觉得ESPN现在加速流失的用户是怎么回事？
- 欢喜回复九格:
  问题二，为什么ESPN可以承受高成本？原因在有线电视产业的商业模式，即大量用户为自己从来不看的节目付费。比如，一个大节目包包含100个节目，每个用户每月支付100美元，其中ESPN收6美元，但实际上可能有80个节目用户从来不看。所以，随着互联网为用户提供更多选择，很多用户不再愿意为大节目包付费，cord-cutting问题出现，有线电视用户流失。
- 欢喜回复九格:
  问题一，中短期内互联网企业会不会大量购买赛事转播权？我觉得不会，原因很简单，就是太贵了。你提到的NFL不包括季前赛和季后赛，光常规赛就有256场，twitter只买了10场，并且这10场比赛在NBS和CBS也同时播。（我记得Netflix的老板说过，他们暂时不会考虑购买体育赛事转播权。
- 九格回复欢喜:
  就算拿到续约，利润率又要下降多少呢？

发表看法

10

1

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