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2021-07-12

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Morgan Stanley: Today We Are Facing Another Growth Scare, And It Too Will Fade<blockquote>摩根士丹利：今天我们面临另一场增长恐慌，而且它也会消退</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":146317350,"tweetId":"146317350","gmtCreate":1626053746570,"gmtModify":1633930625148,"author":{"id":3570858059087130,"idStr":"3570858059087130","authorId":3570858059087130,"authorIdStr":"3570858059087130","name":"bucky","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":12,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Nice</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Nice</body></html>","text":"Nice","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146317350","repostId":1144170422,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144170422","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626053515,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144170422?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: Today We Are Facing Another Growth Scare, And It Too Will Fade<blockquote>摩根士丹利：今天我们面临另一场增长恐慌，而且它也会消退</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144170422","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Nearly a year ago, we wrote in the Sunday Startabout the first growth scare of the new cycle (see Th","content":"Nearly a year ago, we wrote in the&nbsp;Sunday Startabout the first growth scare of the new cycle (see&nbsp;Three Reasons Why the Recovery Is on Track, July 26, 2020). Then, a rise in COVID-19 cases sparked fears of renewed lockdowns, and the delay in passing additional fiscal stimulus in the US led to concerns that the consumption recovery would sputter.<blockquote>大约一年前，我们在周日开始关于新周期的第一次增长恐慌（查看复苏步入正轨的三个原因，2020年7月26日).随后，新冠肺炎病例的增加引发了人们对新一轮封锁的担忧，而美国推迟通过额外财政刺激措施导致人们担心消费复苏将陷入停滞。</blockquote> Today, we are facing another growth scare. Just like the last time, we see good reasons why these fears will fade.<blockquote>今天，我们面临着另一场增长恐慌。就像上次一样，我们看到了这些恐惧会消失的充分理由。</blockquote> #1 – The virus/economy equation continues to evolve<blockquote>#1-病毒/经济等式继续演变</blockquote> The more transmissible Delta variant is leading to a renewed rise in cases, particularly among unvaccinated populations. Encouragingly, while case counts are rising, all indications are that existing vaccines are still highly effective in preventing severe illness and, more importantly, hospitalisations.<blockquote>传染性更强的德尔塔变异毒株导致病例再次上升，特别是在未接种疫苗的人群中。令人鼓舞的是，虽然病例数在上升，但所有迹象表明，现有疫苗在预防严重疾病，更重要的是，在预防住院方面仍然非常有效。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b35c364dd1dd5e19aa143af89201a35\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Hence, for economies with relatively high vaccination rates, like the US, UK and euro area, we don’t expect hospital system capacity to be overwhelmed and thus see a low probability of strict lockdowns returning. For economies which are lagging in their vaccination efforts, for instance parts of Asia, the risk is that variants will delay a full relaxation of restrictions. While the recovery in external demand and capex is advancing for these economies, we see domestic consumption being held back over the next 3-4 months. However, vaccinations are expected to pick up, which would give policy-makers greater flexibility to reopen their economies, setting the stage for a broad-based recovery to take hold late this year.<blockquote>因此，对于疫苗接种率相对较高的经济体，如美国、英国和欧元区，我们预计医院系统的容量不会不堪重负，因此严格封锁回归的可能性很低。对于疫苗接种工作滞后的经济体，例如亚洲部分地区，风险在于变异将推迟限制的全面放松。虽然这些经济体的外部需求和资本支出正在复苏，但我们认为未来3-4个月国内消费将受到抑制。然而，疫苗接种预计将加快，这将使政策制定者在重新开放经济方面有更大的灵活性，为今年晚些时候出现广泛的复苏奠定基础。</blockquote> #2 – US: Withdrawal of policy support is not as premature as you think<blockquote>#2-美国：撤回政策支持并不像你想象的那么早</blockquote> As recoveries progress and economies move towards a self-sustaining path, it is only natural for policy-makers to start thinking about exit strategies. However, we believe that neither fiscal nor monetary policy support will be&nbsp;removed at a faster pace than warranted.<blockquote>随着复苏的进展和经济走向自我维持的道路，政策制定者开始考虑退出策略是很自然的。然而，我们认为，财政和货币政策支持的取消速度都不会超过必要的速度。</blockquote> The US economy is already on a strong footing. Wage incomes stand at 105% of pre-COVID-19 levels, real investment is already 4% higher and GDP has reached its pre-COVID-19 path.<blockquote>美国经济已经站稳了脚跟。工资收入是新冠肺炎之前水平的105%，实际投资已经高出4%，GDP已经达到了新冠肺炎之前的水平。</blockquote> While the fiscal impulse is turning negative this year, its impact on growth has been overstated. That’s because fiscal measures have largely taken the form of transfers to households. In fact, the excess transfers are still sitting on household balance sheets, waiting to be spent. US households have accumulated US$2.3 trillion in excess saving, and our strong US GDP growth forecasts of 7.1%Y for 2021 and 4.9%Y for 2022 don’t assume that this stock will have to be drawn down.<blockquote>尽管今年财政刺激正在转为负面，但其对经济增长的影响被夸大了。这是因为财政措施主要采取向家庭转移的形式。事实上，超额转移仍然坐在家庭资产负债表上，等待支出。美国家庭已积累了2.3万亿美元的超额储蓄，我们对2021年美国GDP同比增长7.1%和2022年同比增长4.9%的强劲预测并不假设这一存量将不得不被削减。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8337c2c7520872d704e9497f4436a5d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As regards the Fed, our chief US economist Ellen Zentner continues to expect&nbsp;forward guidance in September&nbsp;and an official announcement of tapering in March, with the risks skewed towards an earlier start. By the time tapering starts, we forecast that the US economy will be well above its pre-COVID-19 path, core PCE inflation will exceed 2%Y sustainably (adjusted for base effects and transitory factors) and U-6 unemployment (the broadest measure) will reach ~8.5% (versus a pre-pandemic low of 7%) as compared to 13% during the time of tapering in December 2013 – hardly conditions that indicate the withdrawal of accommodation is premature.<blockquote>至于美联储，我们的首席美国经济学家Ellen Zentner继续预计美联储将在9月份发布前瞻性指引，并在3月份正式宣布缩减规模，风险倾向于提前开始。到缩减开始时，我们预测美国经济将远高于新冠肺炎之前的路径，核心PCE通胀率将持续超过2%（根据基数效应和暂时性因素进行调整），U-6失业率（最广泛的衡量标准）将达到约8.5%（而疫情前的低点为7%），而2013年12月缩减期间为13%——几乎没有条件表明撤回宽松为时过早。</blockquote> #3 – China: From tightening to modest easing<blockquote>#3-中国：从紧缩到适度宽松</blockquote> While growth is usually sustained by external demand and capex during periods of counter-cyclical tightening, COVID-19 flare-ups have hampered the private consumption recovery in this cycle. Accordingly, policy-makers are beginning to fine-tune their policy stance to offset the effects of the resulting small growth downside. Our chief China economist Robin Xing expects&nbsp;modest fiscal easing, complemented by liquidity injection&nbsp;and the cut in the reserve requirement ratio on July 9. We remain confident that China’s GDP will grow by 8.7%Y this year.<blockquote>虽然在逆周期紧缩时期，增长通常由外部需求和资本支出维持，但新冠肺炎疫情的爆发阻碍了这一周期中私人消费的复苏。因此，政策制定者开始微调他们的政策立场，以抵消由此产生的小幅增长下行的影响。我们的首席中国经济学家Robin Xing预计，财政将适度宽松，辅以流动性注入和7月9日的存款准备金率下调。我们对中国今年的国内生产总值增长8.</blockquote> #4 – Supply-side constraints are transitory<blockquote>#4-供应方限制是暂时的</blockquote> Supply-side constraints continue to be reflected in the sub-indices of the manufacturing PMIs – supplier delivery times and inventories. What’s more, these obstacles have dampened production, with a shortage of chips crimping auto production and leading to downside surprises in Japan and Korea’s industrial production growth. Similarly, labour shortages have hampered services sector growth, especially in the US, where labour participation has been held back in part because generous unemployment benefits are still in effect in some states and schools have yet to fully resume in-person learning. However, we expect labour supply conditions to improve over the next 3-4 months, enabling production to ramp up and inventories to return to more normalised levels, providing a strong boost to GDP growth.<blockquote>供应方面的限制继续反映在制造业PMI的分项指数——供应商交货时间和库存中。更重要的是，这些障碍抑制了生产，芯片短缺抑制了汽车生产，并导致日本和韩国工业生产增长意外下滑。同样，劳动力短缺阻碍了服务业的增长，尤其是在美国，部分原因是一些州仍在发放慷慨的失业救济金，而且学校尚未完全恢复面对面学习，因此劳动力参与率受到抑制。然而，我们预计劳动力供应状况将在未来3-4个月内改善，使产量增加，库存恢复到更正常的水平，为GDP增长提供强大的推动力。</blockquote> Overall, we see this growth scare as just that – a scare. Indeed, while there have been some downside growth surprises in economies like China and India, they have been offset by upside surprises in Europe and Latin America, keeping our global growth forecasts unchanged (at 6.5%Y for 2021 and 4.9%Y for 2022) since we published our mid-year outlook. More fundamentally, the outlook for demand is strong, and we remain convinced that the unfolding of a&nbsp;red-hot capex cycle&nbsp;will sustain global GDP above its pre-COVID-19 path from this quarter on through to end-2022.<blockquote>总体而言，我们认为这种增长恐慌只是一种恐慌。事实上，尽管中国和印度等经济体出现了一些下行增长意外，但它们已被欧洲和拉丁美洲的上行意外所抵消，使我们的全球增长预测保持不变（2021年同比增长6.5%，2022年同比增长4.9%））自我们发布年中展望以来。更重要的是，需求前景强劲，我们仍然相信，从本季度到2022年底，火热的资本支出周期的展开将使全球GDP保持在COVID-19之前的水平之上。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: Today We Are Facing Another Growth Scare, And It Too Will Fade<blockquote>摩根士丹利：今天我们面临另一场增长恐慌，而且它也会消退</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: Today We Are Facing Another Growth Scare, And It Too Will Fade<blockquote>摩根士丹利：今天我们面临另一场增长恐慌，而且它也会消退</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-12 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNearly a year ago, we wrote in the&nbsp;Sunday Startabout the first growth scare of the new cycle (see&nbsp;Three Reasons Why the Recovery Is on Track, July 26, 2020). Then, a rise in COVID-19 cases sparked fears of renewed lockdowns, and the delay in passing additional fiscal stimulus in the US led to concerns that the consumption recovery would sputter.<blockquote>大约一年前，我们在周日开始关于新周期的第一次增长恐慌（查看复苏步入正轨的三个原因，2020年7月26日).随后，新冠肺炎病例的增加引发了人们对新一轮封锁的担忧，而美国推迟通过额外财政刺激措施导致人们担心消费复苏将陷入停滞。</blockquote> Today, we are facing another growth scare. Just like the last time, we see good reasons why these fears will fade.<blockquote>今天，我们面临着另一场增长恐慌。就像上次一样，我们看到了这些恐惧会消失的充分理由。</blockquote> #1 – The virus/economy equation continues to evolve<blockquote>#1-病毒/经济等式继续演变</blockquote> The more transmissible Delta variant is leading to a renewed rise in cases, particularly among unvaccinated populations. Encouragingly, while case counts are rising, all indications are that existing vaccines are still highly effective in preventing severe illness and, more importantly, hospitalisations.<blockquote>传染性更强的德尔塔变异毒株导致病例再次上升，特别是在未接种疫苗的人群中。令人鼓舞的是，虽然病例数在上升，但所有迹象表明，现有疫苗在预防严重疾病，更重要的是，在预防住院方面仍然非常有效。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b35c364dd1dd5e19aa143af89201a35\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Hence, for economies with relatively high vaccination rates, like the US, UK and euro area, we don’t expect hospital system capacity to be overwhelmed and thus see a low probability of strict lockdowns returning. For economies which are lagging in their vaccination efforts, for instance parts of Asia, the risk is that variants will delay a full relaxation of restrictions. While the recovery in external demand and capex is advancing for these economies, we see domestic consumption being held back over the next 3-4 months. However, vaccinations are expected to pick up, which would give policy-makers greater flexibility to reopen their economies, setting the stage for a broad-based recovery to take hold late this year.<blockquote>因此，对于疫苗接种率相对较高的经济体，如美国、英国和欧元区，我们预计医院系统的容量不会不堪重负，因此严格封锁回归的可能性很低。对于疫苗接种工作滞后的经济体，例如亚洲部分地区，风险在于变异将推迟限制的全面放松。虽然这些经济体的外部需求和资本支出正在复苏，但我们认为未来3-4个月国内消费将受到抑制。然而，疫苗接种预计将加快，这将使政策制定者在重新开放经济方面有更大的灵活性，为今年晚些时候出现广泛的复苏奠定基础。</blockquote> #2 – US: Withdrawal of policy support is not as premature as you think<blockquote>#2-美国：撤回政策支持并不像你想象的那么早</blockquote> As recoveries progress and economies move towards a self-sustaining path, it is only natural for policy-makers to start thinking about exit strategies. However, we believe that neither fiscal nor monetary policy support will be&nbsp;removed at a faster pace than warranted.<blockquote>随着复苏的进展和经济走向自我维持的道路，政策制定者开始考虑退出策略是很自然的。然而，我们认为，财政和货币政策支持的取消速度都不会超过必要的速度。</blockquote> The US economy is already on a strong footing. Wage incomes stand at 105% of pre-COVID-19 levels, real investment is already 4% higher and GDP has reached its pre-COVID-19 path.<blockquote>美国经济已经站稳了脚跟。工资收入是新冠肺炎之前水平的105%，实际投资已经高出4%，GDP已经达到了新冠肺炎之前的水平。</blockquote> While the fiscal impulse is turning negative this year, its impact on growth has been overstated. That’s because fiscal measures have largely taken the form of transfers to households. In fact, the excess transfers are still sitting on household balance sheets, waiting to be spent. US households have accumulated US$2.3 trillion in excess saving, and our strong US GDP growth forecasts of 7.1%Y for 2021 and 4.9%Y for 2022 don’t assume that this stock will have to be drawn down.<blockquote>尽管今年财政刺激正在转为负面，但其对经济增长的影响被夸大了。这是因为财政措施主要采取向家庭转移的形式。事实上，超额转移仍然坐在家庭资产负债表上，等待支出。美国家庭已积累了2.3万亿美元的超额储蓄，我们对2021年美国GDP同比增长7.1%和2022年同比增长4.9%的强劲预测并不假设这一存量将不得不被削减。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8337c2c7520872d704e9497f4436a5d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As regards the Fed, our chief US economist Ellen Zentner continues to expect&nbsp;forward guidance in September&nbsp;and an official announcement of tapering in March, with the risks skewed towards an earlier start. By the time tapering starts, we forecast that the US economy will be well above its pre-COVID-19 path, core PCE inflation will exceed 2%Y sustainably (adjusted for base effects and transitory factors) and U-6 unemployment (the broadest measure) will reach ~8.5% (versus a pre-pandemic low of 7%) as compared to 13% during the time of tapering in December 2013 – hardly conditions that indicate the withdrawal of accommodation is premature.<blockquote>至于美联储，我们的首席美国经济学家Ellen Zentner继续预计美联储将在9月份发布前瞻性指引，并在3月份正式宣布缩减规模，风险倾向于提前开始。到缩减开始时，我们预测美国经济将远高于新冠肺炎之前的路径，核心PCE通胀率将持续超过2%（根据基数效应和暂时性因素进行调整），U-6失业率（最广泛的衡量标准）将达到约8.5%（而疫情前的低点为7%），而2013年12月缩减期间为13%——几乎没有条件表明撤回宽松为时过早。</blockquote> #3 – China: From tightening to modest easing<blockquote>#3-中国：从紧缩到适度宽松</blockquote> While growth is usually sustained by external demand and capex during periods of counter-cyclical tightening, COVID-19 flare-ups have hampered the private consumption recovery in this cycle. Accordingly, policy-makers are beginning to fine-tune their policy stance to offset the effects of the resulting small growth downside. Our chief China economist Robin Xing expects&nbsp;modest fiscal easing, complemented by liquidity injection&nbsp;and the cut in the reserve requirement ratio on July 9. We remain confident that China’s GDP will grow by 8.7%Y this year.<blockquote>虽然在逆周期紧缩时期，增长通常由外部需求和资本支出维持，但新冠肺炎疫情的爆发阻碍了这一周期中私人消费的复苏。因此，政策制定者开始微调他们的政策立场，以抵消由此产生的小幅增长下行的影响。我们的首席中国经济学家Robin Xing预计，财政将适度宽松，辅以流动性注入和7月9日的存款准备金率下调。我们对中国今年的国内生产总值增长8.</blockquote> #4 – Supply-side constraints are transitory<blockquote>#4-供应方限制是暂时的</blockquote> Supply-side constraints continue to be reflected in the sub-indices of the manufacturing PMIs – supplier delivery times and inventories. What’s more, these obstacles have dampened production, with a shortage of chips crimping auto production and leading to downside surprises in Japan and Korea’s industrial production growth. Similarly, labour shortages have hampered services sector growth, especially in the US, where labour participation has been held back in part because generous unemployment benefits are still in effect in some states and schools have yet to fully resume in-person learning. However, we expect labour supply conditions to improve over the next 3-4 months, enabling production to ramp up and inventories to return to more normalised levels, providing a strong boost to GDP growth.<blockquote>供应方面的限制继续反映在制造业PMI的分项指数——供应商交货时间和库存中。更重要的是，这些障碍抑制了生产，芯片短缺抑制了汽车生产，并导致日本和韩国工业生产增长意外下滑。同样，劳动力短缺阻碍了服务业的增长，尤其是在美国，部分原因是一些州仍在发放慷慨的失业救济金，而且学校尚未完全恢复面对面学习，因此劳动力参与率受到抑制。然而，我们预计劳动力供应状况将在未来3-4个月内改善，使产量增加，库存恢复到更正常的水平，为GDP增长提供强大的推动力。</blockquote> Overall, we see this growth scare as just that – a scare. Indeed, while there have been some downside growth surprises in economies like China and India, they have been offset by upside surprises in Europe and Latin America, keeping our global growth forecasts unchanged (at 6.5%Y for 2021 and 4.9%Y for 2022) since we published our mid-year outlook. More fundamentally, the outlook for demand is strong, and we remain convinced that the unfolding of a&nbsp;red-hot capex cycle&nbsp;will sustain global GDP above its pre-COVID-19 path from this quarter on through to end-2022.<blockquote>总体而言，我们认为这种增长恐慌只是一种恐慌。事实上，尽管中国和印度等经济体出现了一些下行增长意外，但它们已被欧洲和拉丁美洲的上行意外所抵消，使我们的全球增长预测保持不变（2021年同比增长6.5%，2022年同比增长4.9%））自我们发布年中展望以来。更重要的是，需求前景强劲，我们仍然相信，从本季度到2022年底，火热的资本支出周期的展开将使全球GDP保持在COVID-19之前的水平之上。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-today-we-are-facing-another-growth-scare-it-too-will-fade\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-today-we-are-facing-another-growth-scare-it-too-will-fade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144170422","content_text":"Nearly a year ago, we wrote in the Sunday Startabout the first growth scare of the new cycle (see Three Reasons Why the Recovery Is on Track, July 26, 2020). Then, a rise in COVID-19 cases sparked fears of renewed lockdowns, and the delay in passing additional fiscal stimulus in the US led to concerns that the consumption recovery would sputter.\nToday, we are facing another growth scare. Just like the last time, we see good reasons why these fears will fade.\n#1 – The virus/economy equation continues to evolve\nThe more transmissible Delta variant is leading to a renewed rise in cases, particularly among unvaccinated populations. Encouragingly, while case counts are rising, all indications are that existing vaccines are still highly effective in preventing severe illness and, more importantly, hospitalisations.\nHence, for economies with relatively high vaccination rates, like the US, UK and euro area, we don’t expect hospital system capacity to be overwhelmed and thus see a low probability of strict lockdowns returning. For economies which are lagging in their vaccination efforts, for instance parts of Asia, the risk is that variants will delay a full relaxation of restrictions. While the recovery in external demand and capex is advancing for these economies, we see domestic consumption being held back over the next 3-4 months. However, vaccinations are expected to pick up, which would give policy-makers greater flexibility to reopen their economies, setting the stage for a broad-based recovery to take hold late this year.\n#2 – US: Withdrawal of policy support is not as premature as you think\nAs recoveries progress and economies move towards a self-sustaining path, it is only natural for policy-makers to start thinking about exit strategies. However, we believe that neither fiscal nor monetary policy support will be removed at a faster pace than warranted.\nThe US economy is already on a strong footing. Wage incomes stand at 105% of pre-COVID-19 levels, real investment is already 4% higher and GDP has reached its pre-COVID-19 path.\nWhile the fiscal impulse is turning negative this year, its impact on growth has been overstated. That’s because fiscal measures have largely taken the form of transfers to households. In fact, the excess transfers are still sitting on household balance sheets, waiting to be spent. US households have accumulated US$2.3 trillion in excess saving, and our strong US GDP growth forecasts of 7.1%Y for 2021 and 4.9%Y for 2022 don’t assume that this stock will have to be drawn down.\nAs regards the Fed, our chief US economist Ellen Zentner continues to expect forward guidance in September and an official announcement of tapering in March, with the risks skewed towards an earlier start. By the time tapering starts, we forecast that the US economy will be well above its pre-COVID-19 path, core PCE inflation will exceed 2%Y sustainably (adjusted for base effects and transitory factors) and U-6 unemployment (the broadest measure) will reach ~8.5% (versus a pre-pandemic low of 7%) as compared to 13% during the time of tapering in December 2013 – hardly conditions that indicate the withdrawal of accommodation is premature.\n#3 – China: From tightening to modest easing\nWhile growth is usually sustained by external demand and capex during periods of counter-cyclical tightening, COVID-19 flare-ups have hampered the private consumption recovery in this cycle. Accordingly, policy-makers are beginning to fine-tune their policy stance to offset the effects of the resulting small growth downside. Our chief China economist Robin Xing expects modest fiscal easing, complemented by liquidity injection and the cut in the reserve requirement ratio on July 9. We remain confident that China’s GDP will grow by 8.7%Y this year.\n#4 – Supply-side constraints are transitory\nSupply-side constraints continue to be reflected in the sub-indices of the manufacturing PMIs – supplier delivery times and inventories. What’s more, these obstacles have dampened production, with a shortage of chips crimping auto production and leading to downside surprises in Japan and Korea’s industrial production growth. Similarly, labour shortages have hampered services sector growth, especially in the US, where labour participation has been held back in part because generous unemployment benefits are still in effect in some states and schools have yet to fully resume in-person learning. However, we expect labour supply conditions to improve over the next 3-4 months, enabling production to ramp up and inventories to return to more normalised levels, providing a strong boost to GDP growth.\nOverall, we see this growth scare as just that – a scare. Indeed, while there have been some downside growth surprises in economies like China and India, they have been offset by upside surprises in Europe and Latin America, keeping our global growth forecasts unchanged (at 6.5%Y for 2021 and 4.9%Y for 2022) since we published our mid-year outlook. More fundamentally, the outlook for demand is strong, and we remain convinced that the unfolding of a red-hot capex cycle will sustain global GDP above its pre-COVID-19 path from this quarter on through to end-2022.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/146317350"}