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2021-07-12
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Earnings Kick Off With Sky-High Forecasts, Record Stock Market<blockquote>盈利以天价预测拉开帷幕，股市创历史新高</blockquote>
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Wall Street is heading into earnings season this week with high expectations after strong profits fueled a stock market rally in the first half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票估值高于长期标准，投资者将向公司高管寻求未来利润的线索。在强劲的利润推动上半年股市上涨后，华尔街本周带着很高的期望进入财报季。</blockquote></p><p> Money managers will be watching whether companies will again trounce Wall Street’s forecasts for earnings. The S&P 500 has gained 16% this year and notched 38 record closes, most recently on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>基金经理们将关注公司是否会再次超越华尔街的盈利预测。标普500今年上涨了 16%，并创下了 38 个创纪录的收盘价，最近一次是在周五。</blockquote></p><p> With stock valuations sitting above long-term norms, investors will also be looking to executives for clues on what the future holds for company profits.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票估值高于长期标准，投资者也将向高管寻求有关公司利润未来走向的线索。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b557a54040f8c8702b3328a3c51ed9\" tg-width=\"337\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“Do people reward the markets even further from the levels that we’re seeing today?” said Amy Kong, chief investment officer at Barrett Asset Management. “It really depends I think on what management teams would say.”</p><p><blockquote>“人们对市场的奖励是否比我们今天看到的水平更高？”Barrett Asset Management首席投资官Amy Kong表示。“我认为这真的取决于管理团队会怎么说”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors this week will parse results from big banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp., as well as from companies ranging from PepsiCo Inc. toDelta Air LinesInc.DAL2.02%toUnitedHealth GroupInc.UNH0.53%</p><p><blockquote>投资者本周将分析摩根大通和美国银行等大银行以及百事公司、达美航空等公司的业绩。DAL2.02%到联合健康集团PINC.UNH0.53%</blockquote></p><p> The company earnings will offer a glimpse into how businesses are doing more than a year after the pandemicplunged the U.S. into a recession. With questions about the path of inflation and the labor market unresolved, investors haveshown signs of skittishnessabout the market’s course in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的财报将让我们得以一窥疫情使美国陷入衰退一年多后企业的表现。由于有关通胀和劳动力市场路径的问题尚未解决，投资者对未来几个月的市场走势表现出了不安的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts project that profits for S&P 500 companies rose 64% in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to FactSet, a growth rate that would be the highest in more than a decade. However, the growth will be measured from a period when much of the economy had been brought to a standstill from the pandemic as consumers retreated and some businesses saw steep declines in revenue. Analysts expect businesses constrained by the pandemic and economic slowdown, like the financial and industrial sectors, to more than double their profits from the same period in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 的数据显示，分析师预计标普500公司第二季度利润同比增长 64%，这一增长率将是十多年来的最高增长率。然而，这一增长将从疫情导致大部分经济陷入停滞的时期来衡量，因为消费者撤退，一些企业的收入急剧下降。分析师预计，受疫情和经济放缓限制的企业，如金融和工业部门，其利润将比2020年同期翻一番以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea3485d0ca239f089d056ae1a67be293\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also, forecasts have drifted higher in recent months, helped by an unusually large number of companies advising investors that they expect earnings to come in higher than analysts had been estimating.</p><p><blockquote>此外，近几个月来，由于异常大量的公司告诉投资者，他们预计盈利将高于分析师的预期，预测有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> “The reason for that is simple: The speed and robustness of the recovery is greater today than everyone anticipated three months ago,” said Hal Reynolds, chief investment officer at Los Angeles Capital Management.</p><p><blockquote>“洛杉矶资本管理公司（Los Angeles Capital Management）首席投资官哈尔-雷诺兹（Hal Reynolds）说：”原因很简单：如今经济复苏的速度和力度都超过了三个月前所有人的预期。</blockquote></p><p> It is more common for companies to try to lower expectations as they head into a reporting season.</p><p><blockquote>随着财报季的到来，公司通常会试图降低预期。</blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve officials at the central bank’s June policy meeting suggested theymight need to dial back their supportfor the economy earlier than expected because growth has been so strong.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员在 6 月份的央行政策会议上表示，他们可能需要比预期更早减少对经济的支持，因为经济增长一直如此强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/106ca1452ace2794d634ea68a562e334\" tg-width=\"296\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> At the same time, investors in recent days have been considering the threat that labor shortages, supply-chain bottlenecks and thehighly contagious Delta variantof the coronavirus might pose to their rosy economic outlooks.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，投资者最近几天一直在考虑劳动力短缺、供应链瓶颈和高传染性的冠状病毒三角洲变种可能对其乐观的经济前景构成的威胁。</blockquote></p><p> A rally in ultrasafe government bonds pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notebelow 1.3% last week, settling Thursday at its lowest level since February. Stocks sold off, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite on Thursdaysuffering their worst daily performancesin nearly three weeks before bouncing higher Friday.</p><p><blockquote>超安全政府债券的上涨推动基准 10 年期美国国债收益率上周跌破 1.3%，周四收于 2 月份以来的最低水平。股市遭到抛售，标普500、道琼斯工业平均指数和以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周四遭遇近三周来最糟糕的单日表现，周五反弹走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/628f86f4b1c8df342c39ad290fcf6670\" tg-width=\"333\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Investors are weighing each new development with an eye on the hefty price tags that stocks have commanded since the market last year rocketed up from its pandemic lows.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在权衡每一项新进展，同时关注自去年市场从大流行低点飙升以来股市的高价标签。</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 traded Thursday at nearly 22 times expected earnings over the next 12 months, above a five-year average of a little more than 18.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周四的交易价格是未来 12 个月预期市盈率的近 22 倍，高于略高于 18 倍的五年平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations on their own don’t kill a market, but valuations make you vulnerable if there’s an unpleasant surprise,” said Tom Hancock, lead portfolio manager of the GMO Quality Fund.</p><p><blockquote>“转基因质量基金首席投资组合经理汤姆-汉考克（Tom Hancock）说：”估值本身不会扼杀市场，但如果出现不愉快的意外，估值会让你变得脆弱。</blockquote></p><p> The economy’s rebound from the pandemic has driven asurge in consumer prices, and investors want to know how higher costs for anything from materials to labor will affect corporations’ bottom lines.</p><p><blockquote>大流行病带来的经济反弹推动了消费价格的上涨，投资者想知道从材料到劳动力等各方面的成本上升将如何影响企业的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Forecasts call for an S&P 500 net profit margin of 11.8% in the second quarter, above the five-year average of 10.6%, according to FactSet. That recent efficiency in generating profits could be vulnerable as costs rise.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 的数据显示，看涨期权预测标普500第二季度净利润率为 11.8%，高于 10.6% 的五年平均水平。随着成本上升，最近的利润创造效率可能会受到影响。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> There are signs investors might look harshly on companies struggling to stay fully staffed.FedExCorp.shares fell 3.9% the day after the delivery giant’s June earnings report—and executives saiddifficulty hiring package handlershad driven wages higher and created inefficiency.</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，投资者可能会严厉看待那些难以维持满员的公司。快递巨头联邦快递公司 6 月份财报公布后的第二天，该公司股价下跌了 3.9%，高管们表示，招聘包裹处理人员的困难推高了工资，造成了效率低下。</blockquote></p><p> If that experience turns out to be widely shared, it could reshape expectations for the costs that U.S. companies will bear going forward—and potentially the prices their shares are worth.</p><p><blockquote>如果这一经验被广泛分享，它可能会重塑人们对美国公司未来将承担的成本以及潜在股票价值的预期。</blockquote></p><p> “I come back to inflation and margins being something that could really create a pause with stocks,” said Larry Cordisco, co-lead portfolio manager of the Osterweis Growth & Income Fund. “Certainly if there’s wage inflation that starts to take hold, I think that is going to get people’s attention.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥斯特韦斯增长与收入基金（Osterweis Growth & Income Fund）联席首席投资组合经理拉里-科迪斯科（Larry Cordisco）说：”我认为通货膨胀和利润率可能会真正导致股市停滞不前。“当然，如果工资上涨开始出现，我认为这会引起人们的关注”。</blockquote></p><p> Shares ofDarden RestaurantsInc.meanwhile, rose 3.2% the day after the parent company of Olive Gardentopped earnings estimates, even as it pointed to a rise in the costs of food and labor. The company shared a sales forecast that assumes full operating capacity for essentially all restaurants and no significant interruptions related to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Olive Garden 母公司盈利超出预期的第二天，Darden RestaurantsInc. 的股价上涨了 3.2%，尽管该公司指出食品和劳动力成本上升。该公司分享了一项销售预测，假设几乎所有餐厅都有满负荷运营，并且不会出现与疫情相关的重大中断。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Earnings Kick Off With Sky-High Forecasts, Record Stock Market<blockquote>盈利以天价预测拉开帷幕，股市创历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEarnings Kick Off With Sky-High Forecasts, Record Stock Market<blockquote>盈利以天价预测拉开帷幕，股市创历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-12 07:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> With stock valuations sitting above long-term norms, investors will be looking to company executives for clues on future profits. Wall Street is heading into earnings season this week with high expectations after strong profits fueled a stock market rally in the first half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票估值高于长期标准，投资者将向公司高管寻求未来利润的线索。在强劲的利润推动上半年股市上涨后，华尔街本周带着很高的期望进入财报季。</blockquote></p><p> Money managers will be watching whether companies will again trounce Wall Street’s forecasts for earnings. The S&P 500 has gained 16% this year and notched 38 record closes, most recently on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>基金经理们将关注公司是否会再次超越华尔街的盈利预测。标普500今年上涨了 16%，并创下了 38 个创纪录的收盘价，最近一次是在周五。</blockquote></p><p> With stock valuations sitting above long-term norms, investors will also be looking to executives for clues on what the future holds for company profits.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票估值高于长期标准，投资者也将向高管寻求有关公司利润未来走向的线索。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b557a54040f8c8702b3328a3c51ed9\" tg-width=\"337\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“Do people reward the markets even further from the levels that we’re seeing today?” said Amy Kong, chief investment officer at Barrett Asset Management. “It really depends I think on what management teams would say.”</p><p><blockquote>“人们对市场的奖励是否比我们今天看到的水平更高？”Barrett Asset Management首席投资官Amy Kong表示。“我认为这真的取决于管理团队会怎么说”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors this week will parse results from big banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp., as well as from companies ranging from PepsiCo Inc. toDelta Air LinesInc.DAL2.02%toUnitedHealth GroupInc.UNH0.53%</p><p><blockquote>投资者本周将分析摩根大通和美国银行等大银行以及百事公司、达美航空等公司的业绩。DAL2.02%到联合健康集团PINC.UNH0.53%</blockquote></p><p> The company earnings will offer a glimpse into how businesses are doing more than a year after the pandemicplunged the U.S. into a recession. With questions about the path of inflation and the labor market unresolved, investors haveshown signs of skittishnessabout the market’s course in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的财报将让我们得以一窥疫情使美国陷入衰退一年多后企业的表现。由于有关通胀和劳动力市场路径的问题尚未解决，投资者对未来几个月的市场走势表现出了不安的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts project that profits for S&P 500 companies rose 64% in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to FactSet, a growth rate that would be the highest in more than a decade. However, the growth will be measured from a period when much of the economy had been brought to a standstill from the pandemic as consumers retreated and some businesses saw steep declines in revenue. Analysts expect businesses constrained by the pandemic and economic slowdown, like the financial and industrial sectors, to more than double their profits from the same period in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 的数据显示，分析师预计标普500公司第二季度利润同比增长 64%，这一增长率将是十多年来的最高增长率。然而，这一增长将从疫情导致大部分经济陷入停滞的时期来衡量，因为消费者撤退，一些企业的收入急剧下降。分析师预计，受疫情和经济放缓限制的企业，如金融和工业部门，其利润将比2020年同期翻一番以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea3485d0ca239f089d056ae1a67be293\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also, forecasts have drifted higher in recent months, helped by an unusually large number of companies advising investors that they expect earnings to come in higher than analysts had been estimating.</p><p><blockquote>此外，近几个月来，由于异常大量的公司告诉投资者，他们预计盈利将高于分析师的预期，预测有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> “The reason for that is simple: The speed and robustness of the recovery is greater today than everyone anticipated three months ago,” said Hal Reynolds, chief investment officer at Los Angeles Capital Management.</p><p><blockquote>“洛杉矶资本管理公司（Los Angeles Capital Management）首席投资官哈尔-雷诺兹（Hal Reynolds）说：”原因很简单：如今经济复苏的速度和力度都超过了三个月前所有人的预期。</blockquote></p><p> It is more common for companies to try to lower expectations as they head into a reporting season.</p><p><blockquote>随着财报季的到来，公司通常会试图降低预期。</blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve officials at the central bank’s June policy meeting suggested theymight need to dial back their supportfor the economy earlier than expected because growth has been so strong.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员在 6 月份的央行政策会议上表示，他们可能需要比预期更早减少对经济的支持，因为经济增长一直如此强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/106ca1452ace2794d634ea68a562e334\" tg-width=\"296\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> At the same time, investors in recent days have been considering the threat that labor shortages, supply-chain bottlenecks and thehighly contagious Delta variantof the coronavirus might pose to their rosy economic outlooks.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，投资者最近几天一直在考虑劳动力短缺、供应链瓶颈和高传染性的冠状病毒三角洲变种可能对其乐观的经济前景构成的威胁。</blockquote></p><p> A rally in ultrasafe government bonds pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notebelow 1.3% last week, settling Thursday at its lowest level since February. Stocks sold off, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite on Thursdaysuffering their worst daily performancesin nearly three weeks before bouncing higher Friday.</p><p><blockquote>超安全政府债券的上涨推动基准 10 年期美国国债收益率上周跌破 1.3%，周四收于 2 月份以来的最低水平。股市遭到抛售，标普500、道琼斯工业平均指数和以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周四遭遇近三周来最糟糕的单日表现，周五反弹走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/628f86f4b1c8df342c39ad290fcf6670\" tg-width=\"333\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Investors are weighing each new development with an eye on the hefty price tags that stocks have commanded since the market last year rocketed up from its pandemic lows.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在权衡每一项新进展，同时关注自去年市场从大流行低点飙升以来股市的高价标签。</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 traded Thursday at nearly 22 times expected earnings over the next 12 months, above a five-year average of a little more than 18.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周四的交易价格是未来 12 个月预期市盈率的近 22 倍，高于略高于 18 倍的五年平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations on their own don’t kill a market, but valuations make you vulnerable if there’s an unpleasant surprise,” said Tom Hancock, lead portfolio manager of the GMO Quality Fund.</p><p><blockquote>“转基因质量基金首席投资组合经理汤姆-汉考克（Tom Hancock）说：”估值本身不会扼杀市场，但如果出现不愉快的意外，估值会让你变得脆弱。</blockquote></p><p> The economy’s rebound from the pandemic has driven asurge in consumer prices, and investors want to know how higher costs for anything from materials to labor will affect corporations’ bottom lines.</p><p><blockquote>大流行病带来的经济反弹推动了消费价格的上涨，投资者想知道从材料到劳动力等各方面的成本上升将如何影响企业的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Forecasts call for an S&P 500 net profit margin of 11.8% in the second quarter, above the five-year average of 10.6%, according to FactSet. That recent efficiency in generating profits could be vulnerable as costs rise.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 的数据显示，看涨期权预测标普500第二季度净利润率为 11.8%，高于 10.6% 的五年平均水平。随着成本上升，最近的利润创造效率可能会受到影响。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> There are signs investors might look harshly on companies struggling to stay fully staffed.FedExCorp.shares fell 3.9% the day after the delivery giant’s June earnings report—and executives saiddifficulty hiring package handlershad driven wages higher and created inefficiency.</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，投资者可能会严厉看待那些难以维持满员的公司。快递巨头联邦快递公司 6 月份财报公布后的第二天，该公司股价下跌了 3.9%，高管们表示，招聘包裹处理人员的困难推高了工资，造成了效率低下。</blockquote></p><p> If that experience turns out to be widely shared, it could reshape expectations for the costs that U.S. companies will bear going forward—and potentially the prices their shares are worth.</p><p><blockquote>如果这一经验被广泛分享，它可能会重塑人们对美国公司未来将承担的成本以及潜在股票价值的预期。</blockquote></p><p> “I come back to inflation and margins being something that could really create a pause with stocks,” said Larry Cordisco, co-lead portfolio manager of the Osterweis Growth & Income Fund. “Certainly if there’s wage inflation that starts to take hold, I think that is going to get people’s attention.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥斯特韦斯增长与收入基金（Osterweis Growth & Income Fund）联席首席投资组合经理拉里-科迪斯科（Larry Cordisco）说：”我认为通货膨胀和利润率可能会真正导致股市停滞不前。“当然，如果工资上涨开始出现，我认为这会引起人们的关注”。</blockquote></p><p> Shares ofDarden RestaurantsInc.meanwhile, rose 3.2% the day after the parent company of Olive Gardentopped earnings estimates, even as it pointed to a rise in the costs of food and labor. The company shared a sales forecast that assumes full operating capacity for essentially all restaurants and no significant interruptions related to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Olive Garden 母公司盈利超出预期的第二天，Darden RestaurantsInc. 的股价上涨了 3.2%，尽管该公司指出食品和劳动力成本上升。该公司分享了一项销售预测，假设几乎所有餐厅都有满负荷运营，并且不会出现与疫情相关的重大中断。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/earnings-kick-off-with-sky-high-forecasts-record-stock-market-11625995802?mod=hp_lead_pos1\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/earnings-kick-off-with-sky-high-forecasts-record-stock-market-11625995802?mod=hp_lead_pos1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133868961","content_text":"With stock valuations sitting above long-term norms, investors will be looking to company executives for clues on future profits.\n\nWall Street is heading into earnings season this week with high expectations after strong profits fueled a stock market rally in the first half of the year.\nMoney managers will be watching whether companies will again trounce Wall Street’s forecasts for earnings. The S&P 500 has gained 16% this year and notched 38 record closes, most recently on Friday.\nWith stock valuations sitting above long-term norms, investors will also be looking to executives for clues on what the future holds for company profits.\n“Do people reward the markets even further from the levels that we’re seeing today?” said Amy Kong, chief investment officer at Barrett Asset Management. “It really depends I think on what management teams would say.”\nInvestors this week will parse results from big banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp., as well as from companies ranging from PepsiCo Inc. toDelta Air LinesInc.DAL2.02%toUnitedHealth GroupInc.UNH0.53%\nThe company earnings will offer a glimpse into how businesses are doing more than a year after the pandemicplunged the U.S. into a recession. With questions about the path of inflation and the labor market unresolved, investors haveshown signs of skittishnessabout the market’s course in the coming months.\nAnalysts project that profits for S&P 500 companies rose 64% in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to FactSet, a growth rate that would be the highest in more than a decade. However, the growth will be measured from a period when much of the economy had been brought to a standstill from the pandemic as consumers retreated and some businesses saw steep declines in revenue. Analysts expect businesses constrained by the pandemic and economic slowdown, like the financial and industrial sectors, to more than double their profits from the same period in 2020.\n\nAlso, forecasts have drifted higher in recent months, helped by an unusually large number of companies advising investors that they expect earnings to come in higher than analysts had been estimating.\n“The reason for that is simple: The speed and robustness of the recovery is greater today than everyone anticipated three months ago,” said Hal Reynolds, chief investment officer at Los Angeles Capital Management.\nIt is more common for companies to try to lower expectations as they head into a reporting season.\nFederal Reserve officials at the central bank’s June policy meeting suggested theymight need to dial back their supportfor the economy earlier than expected because growth has been so strong.\n\nAt the same time, investors in recent days have been considering the threat that labor shortages, supply-chain bottlenecks and thehighly contagious Delta variantof the coronavirus might pose to their rosy economic outlooks.\nA rally in ultrasafe government bonds pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notebelow 1.3% last week, settling Thursday at its lowest level since February. Stocks sold off, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite on Thursdaysuffering their worst daily performancesin nearly three weeks before bouncing higher Friday.\nInvestors are weighing each new development with an eye on the hefty price tags that stocks have commanded since the market last year rocketed up from its pandemic lows.\nThe S&P 500 traded Thursday at nearly 22 times expected earnings over the next 12 months, above a five-year average of a little more than 18.\n“Valuations on their own don’t kill a market, but valuations make you vulnerable if there’s an unpleasant surprise,” said Tom Hancock, lead portfolio manager of the GMO Quality Fund.\nThe economy’s rebound from the pandemic has driven asurge in consumer prices, and investors want to know how higher costs for anything from materials to labor will affect corporations’ bottom lines.\nForecasts call for an S&P 500 net profit margin of 11.8% in the second quarter, above the five-year average of 10.6%, according to FactSet. That recent efficiency in generating profits could be vulnerable as costs rise.\nThere are signs investors might look harshly on companies struggling to stay fully staffed.FedExCorp.shares fell 3.9% the day after the delivery giant’s June earnings report—and executives saiddifficulty hiring package handlershad driven wages higher and created inefficiency.\nIf that experience turns out to be widely shared, it could reshape expectations for the costs that U.S. companies will bear going forward—and potentially the prices their shares are worth.\n“I come back to inflation and margins being something that could really create a pause with stocks,” said Larry Cordisco, co-lead portfolio manager of the Osterweis Growth & Income Fund. “Certainly if there’s wage inflation that starts to take hold, I think that is going to get people’s attention.”\nShares ofDarden RestaurantsInc.meanwhile, rose 3.2% the day after the parent company of Olive Gardentopped earnings estimates, even as it pointed to a rise in the costs of food and labor. The company shared a sales forecast that assumes full operating capacity for essentially all restaurants and no significant interruptions related to the pandemic.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1298,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/146932012"}
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