joyciology
2021-07-10
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A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美国股市经历了疯狂的一周，市场叙事发生了变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote>
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That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>国债反弹变成了购买狂潮，导致长期收益率大幅下降。这使得所谓的通货膨胀贸易失去了任何剩余的风力，而通货膨胀贸易有利于对周期性更为敏感的公司的股票，这些公司预计将从价格上涨和经济增长加速中受益最多。</blockquote></p><p> What changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>有什么变化？纽约人寿投资公司 (New York Life Investments) 的经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温 (Lauren Goodwin) 表示，市场叙事的转变有三个重要因素，该公司管理着 6050 亿美元的资产。</blockquote></p><p> The first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，首先是美联储对数据的反应方式发生了明显的变化，投资者不再希望政策制定者像之前认为的那样容忍经济过热和通胀上升。第二，虽然经济增长预计将保持强劲，但增长速度预计将达到峰值。第三，有人担心导致新冠肺炎的三角洲和其他冠状病毒变种的传播可能会迫使新一轮限制，这将给全球经济活动带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"</p><p><blockquote>古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“总的来说，这与几周前的市场共识叙事截然不同，当时的焦点都是刺激和过热。”他指出，投资者现在必须问：“这种新叙事是正确的吗？”</blockquote></p><p> The real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周真正的痛苦在于国债市场，该市场的反弹导致长期收益率大幅下降，价格上涨。此次上涨在很大程度上归因于美国国债空头被迫做空，他们担心通胀，引发了某种喂养狂潮，周四将 10 年期国债收益率推至 1.25% 以下的五个月低点，然后最终有所缓和。</blockquote></p><p> But analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，此举至少在一定程度上也反映了对全球经济增长前景的合理担忧。</blockquote></p><p> That Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .</p><p><blockquote>周四收益率暴跌以及随之而来的增长担忧引发了广泛的股市抛售，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数从历史高点回落，而道琼斯工业平均指数则在盘中低点下跌了 500 多点。周五股市收盘时收窄跌幅，然后走高，三大股指均创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> One casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.</p><p><blockquote>一个受害者是股市再通胀交易。小盘股 Russell 2000 指数 RUT (#phrase-company?ref=company%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) 连续第二周下跌 1.1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数每周上涨 0.4%。价值股表现不佳，罗素1000价值指数下跌0.3%，而罗素1000增长指数上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>“‘再通胀’和‘轮换’交易——与对疫情和通胀上升中快速、广泛的经济复苏的乐观情绪有关——可以说自第一季度末以来就一直处于低迷状态，但显然本周再次遭受打击，”研究公司凯投宏观（Capital Economics）高级市场经济学家奥利弗·琼斯（Oliver Jones）在周五的一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Sectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，能源和金融等行业以及价值等因素从再通胀/轮换叙事中受益最大，但表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Jones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>琼斯认为，随着供应限制削弱经济活动，对美国经济复苏的乐观情绪达到顶峰是有道理的。全球增长预期也可能面临压力，中国经济可能继续令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，从绝对值来看，美国经济仍有望实现非常强劲的复苏，远远超过2008年全球金融危机后的复苏。他认为，美国的核心通胀可能会比预期更加持久。</blockquote></p><p> That sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这为“轮换/再通胀贸易标签在未来几个季度可能会逐渐变得不那么有用”的情况埋下了伏笔。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，特别是部分贸易，包括大多数股市的快速上涨和能源公司的优异表现，目前可能已经结束，而考虑到美国的增长和通胀路径，国债收益率的下降可能是一种“过度反应”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>未来一周，投资者将看到通胀和增长方面的证据。6 月份消费者价格指数将于周二发布，而生产者价格指数将于周三发布。本周将公布大量其他经济数据，包括周五公布的 6 月份零售销售数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>然后是企业财报季的开始，随着第二季度利润与去年大流行初期相比猛增，预计该季度将迎来另一个高峰。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial 首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克 (Ryan Detrick) 在周五创纪录的收盘后表示：“随着下周财报季开始，门槛设定得相当高，美国企业界最好再创佳绩，否则可能会出现一些令人失望的多头。”</blockquote></p><p> Goodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.</p><p><blockquote>古德温表示，投资者的选择可以归结为要么倾向于有利于周期性股票和短期资产的旧说法，要么倾向于新的说法，即预计经济增长将变得更加缓慢和乏力，就像大流行之前一样，有利于成长型股票和防御性行业。</blockquote></p><p> The best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，古德温说，最好的反应可能是两者兼而有之。</blockquote></p><p> Reflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.</p><p><blockquote>短期内通货膨胀可能仍有一定的运行空间。她说，儿童税收抵免付款的发放将于本月晚些时候开始，而随着儿童重返校园和额外失业救济金到期，劳动力短缺可能会在未来几个月得到缓解，而消费者正在节省大量资金。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，与此同时，经济增长和通胀正在见顶，各种资产类别的估值也捉襟见肘。她表示，虽然仍保持周期性倾斜，但不断变化的背景为投资组合采取更加平衡的方法提供了评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，投资者需要密切关注能够利用变化趋势并将价格上涨转嫁给消费者的行业和个别公司，在一个更具选择性的环境中，而不是一个水涨船高的环境。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美国股市经历了疯狂的一周，市场叙事发生了变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美国股市经历了疯狂的一周，市场叙事发生了变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 10:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge</p><p><blockquote>投资者必须决定他们是否认为经济增长停滞比通胀飙升构成更大的威胁</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ec205cf1616aaba5573cc40240a899\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> ?</p><p><blockquote>对通胀失控的担忧已经被对全球经济增长迅速放缓的担忧所取代——这使得美国投资者度过了非常漫长、假期缩短的一周——但这种新的说法正确吗<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>?</blockquote></p><p> A Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>国债反弹变成了购买狂潮，导致长期收益率大幅下降。这使得所谓的通货膨胀贸易失去了任何剩余的风力，而通货膨胀贸易有利于对周期性更为敏感的公司的股票，这些公司预计将从价格上涨和经济增长加速中受益最多。</blockquote></p><p> What changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>有什么变化？纽约人寿投资公司 (New York Life Investments) 的经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温 (Lauren Goodwin) 表示，市场叙事的转变有三个重要因素，该公司管理着 6050 亿美元的资产。</blockquote></p><p> The first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，首先是美联储对数据的反应方式发生了明显的变化，投资者不再希望政策制定者像之前认为的那样容忍经济过热和通胀上升。第二，虽然经济增长预计将保持强劲，但增长速度预计将达到峰值。第三，有人担心导致新冠肺炎的三角洲和其他冠状病毒变种的传播可能会迫使新一轮限制，这将给全球经济活动带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"</p><p><blockquote>古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“总的来说，这与几周前的市场共识叙事截然不同，当时的焦点都是刺激和过热。”他指出，投资者现在必须问：“这种新叙事是正确的吗？”</blockquote></p><p> The real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周真正的痛苦在于国债市场，该市场的反弹导致长期收益率大幅下降，价格上涨。此次上涨在很大程度上归因于美国国债空头被迫做空，他们担心通胀，引发了某种喂养狂潮，周四将 10 年期国债收益率推至 1.25% 以下的五个月低点，然后最终有所缓和。</blockquote></p><p> But analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，此举至少在一定程度上也反映了对全球经济增长前景的合理担忧。</blockquote></p><p> That Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .</p><p><blockquote>周四收益率暴跌以及随之而来的增长担忧引发了广泛的股市抛售，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数从历史高点回落，而道琼斯工业平均指数则在盘中低点下跌了 500 多点。周五股市收盘时收窄跌幅，然后走高，三大股指均创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> One casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.</p><p><blockquote>一个受害者是股市再通胀交易。小盘股 Russell 2000 指数 RUT (#phrase-company?ref=company%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) 连续第二周下跌 1.1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数每周上涨 0.4%。价值股表现不佳，罗素1000价值指数下跌0.3%，而罗素1000增长指数上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>“‘再通胀’和‘轮换’交易——与对疫情和通胀上升中快速、广泛的经济复苏的乐观情绪有关——可以说自第一季度末以来就一直处于低迷状态，但显然本周再次遭受打击，”研究公司凯投宏观（Capital Economics）高级市场经济学家奥利弗·琼斯（Oliver Jones）在周五的一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Sectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，能源和金融等行业以及价值等因素从再通胀/轮换叙事中受益最大，但表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Jones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>琼斯认为，随着供应限制削弱经济活动，对美国经济复苏的乐观情绪达到顶峰是有道理的。全球增长预期也可能面临压力，中国经济可能继续令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，从绝对值来看，美国经济仍有望实现非常强劲的复苏，远远超过2008年全球金融危机后的复苏。他认为，美国的核心通胀可能会比预期更加持久。</blockquote></p><p> That sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这为“轮换/再通胀贸易标签在未来几个季度可能会逐渐变得不那么有用”的情况埋下了伏笔。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，特别是部分贸易，包括大多数股市的快速上涨和能源公司的优异表现，目前可能已经结束，而考虑到美国的增长和通胀路径，国债收益率的下降可能是一种“过度反应”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>未来一周，投资者将看到通胀和增长方面的证据。6 月份消费者价格指数将于周二发布，而生产者价格指数将于周三发布。本周将公布大量其他经济数据，包括周五公布的 6 月份零售销售数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>然后是企业财报季的开始，随着第二季度利润与去年大流行初期相比猛增，预计该季度将迎来另一个高峰。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial 首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克 (Ryan Detrick) 在周五创纪录的收盘后表示：“随着下周财报季开始，门槛设定得相当高，美国企业界最好再创佳绩，否则可能会出现一些令人失望的多头。”</blockquote></p><p> Goodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.</p><p><blockquote>古德温表示，投资者的选择可以归结为要么倾向于有利于周期性股票和短期资产的旧说法，要么倾向于新的说法，即预计经济增长将变得更加缓慢和乏力，就像大流行之前一样，有利于成长型股票和防御性行业。</blockquote></p><p> The best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，古德温说，最好的反应可能是两者兼而有之。</blockquote></p><p> Reflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.</p><p><blockquote>短期内通货膨胀可能仍有一定的运行空间。她说，儿童税收抵免付款的发放将于本月晚些时候开始，而随着儿童重返校园和额外失业救济金到期，劳动力短缺可能会在未来几个月得到缓解，而消费者正在节省大量资金。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，与此同时，经济增长和通胀正在见顶，各种资产类别的估值也捉襟见肘。她表示，虽然仍保持周期性倾斜，但不断变化的背景为投资组合采取更加平衡的方法提供了评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，投资者需要密切关注能够利用变化趋势并将价格上涨转嫁给消费者的行业和个别公司，在一个更具选择性的环境中，而不是一个水涨船高的环境。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-crazy-week-for-u-s-stocks-came-with-a-change-in-the-market-narrative-should-investors-believe-it-11625865324?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-crazy-week-for-u-s-stocks-came-with-a-change-in-the-market-narrative-should-investors-believe-it-11625865324?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150053623","content_text":"Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge\n\nFears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right one ?\nA Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.\nWhat changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.\nThe first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.\n\"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"\nThe real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.\nBut analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .\nThat Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .\nOne casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.\n\"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.\nSectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.\nJones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.\nAt the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.\nThat sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.\nIn particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.\nInvestors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.\nAnd then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.\n\"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.\nGoodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.\nThe best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.\nReflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.\nAt the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.\nInvestors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4062,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/148077094"}
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