skli
2021-07-08
Wow
Amazon: Undervalued With Potential Upside Of 25%<blockquote>亚马逊：被低估，潜在上涨空间为 25%</blockquote>
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This is the current market capitalization of the company and this implies that it is currently 15.18% away from being a $2 trillion company, not bad no?I initiate","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Amazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters.</li> <li>I initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share).</li> <li>The company's improving top line and bottom line performance (which is expected to continue) suggests that the stock is currently undervalued by 3.9%.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51ce52baed5afae04a384059297465d3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Daria Nipot/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是一家独特且不断发展的公司，它利用其颠覆性平台来颠覆它进入的任何新业务。</li><li>我对亚马逊给予看涨评级，公允价值为3576美元/股（当前价格为3443美元/股）。</li><li>该公司不断改善的营收和利润表现（预计将持续）表明该股目前被低估 3.9%。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Daria Nipot/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司概况</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), a $1.74 trillion company. This is the current market capitalization (as of 06/29/2021) of the company and this implies that it is currently 15.18% away from being a $2 trillion company, not bad no?</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN），一家市值 1.74 万亿美元的公司。这是该公司目前的市值（截至2021年6月29日），这意味着它目前距离成为一家2万亿美元的公司还有15.18%，不错吧？</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters. For example, when Amazon announced the acquisition of Whole Foods, Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Kroger(NYSE:KR), Target(NYSE:TGT)took a nice hit in market value. I believe that the company will be able to keep delivering strong top line growth and continued growth in margins, fueled not only by the company's current business expansion but also by entering into new markets and new businesses.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是一家独特且不断发展的公司，它利用其颠覆性平台来颠覆它进入的任何新业务。例如，当亚马逊宣布收购全食超市时，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）、克罗格（纽约证券交易所股票代码：KR）、塔吉特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TGT）的市值受到了不小的打击。我相信，公司将能够继续实现强劲的营收增长和利润率的持续增长，这不仅得益于公司当前的业务扩张，还得益于进入新市场和新业务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share). The FV is an algorithm-adjusted fair value (the algorithm takes into account fundamental and technical factors, such as DCF FV, momentum, etc.) and it implies that the stock is undervalued by 3.9%.</p><p><blockquote>我对亚马逊给予看涨评级，公允价值为3576美元/股（当前价格为3443美元/股）。FV 是算法调整后的公允价值（该算法考虑了基本面和技术因素，例如 DCF FV、动量等），这意味着该股票被低估了 3.9%。</blockquote></p><p> To compute the DCF FV, I used the trailing twelve-month numbers and I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. As with Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), I don't believe that Amazon's R&D is an operating expense, and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>为了计算 DCF FV，我使用了过去 12 个月的数字，并且还重述了财务数据，因为我将 R&D 费用资本化，摊销年限为 3 年。与苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）一样，我不认为亚马逊的研发是运营费用，因此我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb427d462596db1e1cb1ffc99acc90e4\" tg-width=\"571\" tg-height=\"240\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Capitalizing on R&D expenses, we have now a more clear picture of the company (i.e. the restated operating margin is now 9.03% TTM vs the non-restated operating margin is 6.63% TTM).</p><p><blockquote>利用R&D费用，我们现在对公司有了更清晰的了解（即重述的营业利润率现在为9.03% TTM，而非重述的营业利润率为6.63% TTM）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贴现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e215b21ca0b3be5a5e0e7b62e36fb5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In my DCF model, I assume a revenue growth for the Y1 of 21.2%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% and I assume a terminal year growth rate of 1.48% (or the current yield on 10Y Treasury). The decision of using the current and not expected yield is due to the willingness to remain market neutral (perhaps you can use Goldman Sachs expectations of 1.9%). The current assumptions lead to revenues of $1,253,844 million in Y10.</p><p><blockquote>在我的 DCF 模型中，我假设第一年的收入增长率为 21.2%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 15%，我假设最终年增长率为 1.48%（或 10 年期国债的当前收益率）。使用当前收益率而不是预期收益率的决定是由于愿意保持市场中立（也许你可以使用高盛1.9%的预期）。目前的假设导致 Y10 的收入为 12.538.44 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Along the road, I also assume an improving outlook for operating margins with the target operating margin of 13.2% (vs current restated operating margin of 9.03%). If the company will be able to meet this target, it will result in operating margins in Y10 of $163,097 million.</p><p><blockquote>在此过程中，我还假设营业利润率前景会有所改善，目标营业利润率为 13.2%（而当前重述营业利润率为 9.03%）。如果该公司能够实现这一目标，Y10 年的营业利润率将达到 1,630.97 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, in doing my estimates, I used a WACC of 5.75% and a sales to capital ratio (or how much the company is going to reinvest to keep its business growing) of 2.95.</p><p><blockquote>最后，在进行估计时，我使用了 5.75% 的 WACC 和 2.95 的销售资本比率（或公司将再投资多少以保持业务增长）。</blockquote></p><p> By putting it together, I obtain a DCF value of $3328/share.</p><p><blockquote>把它放在一起，我得到了3328美元/股的DCF价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monte Carlo Simulation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蒙特卡罗模拟</b></blockquote></p><p> Rather than showing you only my point estimates, which may be right but also may be wrong, let's use probability distributions for inputs. Simulations allow us to assess the impact of continuous risk (e.g., changes in operating margins). In particular, I would like to focus on what I consider the main inputs of interest to get a bigger picture of the risk in the company. Those inputs are:</p><p><blockquote>与其只向你展示我的点估计，这可能是对的，也可能是错的，让我们使用概率分布作为输入。模拟使我们能够评估持续风险的影响（例如，营业利润率的变化）。特别是，我想重点关注我认为感兴趣的主要输入，以更好地了解公司的风险。这些投入是：</blockquote></p><p> <i>1. Revenue Growth:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>1.收入增长：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In my DCF analysis, I assumed an expected CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% with lower rates going forward. This assumption lead to revenues in Y10 of $1,253,844 million. While it is a reasonable assumption, Amazon is full of surprises, and it may deliver a top line growth well above my expectations. In the latter, I see a possible scenario with a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 24%, resulting in Y10 revenues of $1,989,952 million. However, we all know that regulators represent a big risk for the company. According to WSJ sources, if the \"giant-tech bill\" will pass, the company may be forced to either split into two companies or spin off its private-label product businesses. This represents a big risk that may slow down Amazon's growth, which could translate into a growth rate of 6% (resulting in Y10 revenues of $764,723 million). To sum up, I will assume a uniform distribution with a maximum of 24% and a minimum of 6%. The results are displayed below (this simulation and the next one have been performed 10,000 times).</p><p><blockquote>在我的 DCF 分析中，我假设 Y2-Y5 的预期复合年增长率为 15%，未来利率将会下降。这一假设导致 Y10 的收入为 12.538.44 亿美元。虽然这是一个合理的假设，但亚马逊充满了惊喜，它可能会带来远远超出我预期的营收增长。在后者中，我看到了一个可能的情况，CAGR Y2-Y5为24%，导致Y10收入为19.899.52亿美元。然而，我们都知道监管机构对公司来说是一个很大的风险。据《华尔街日报》消息人士透露，如果“巨型科技法案”获得通过，该公司可能被迫拆分为两家公司或剥离其自有品牌产品业务。这代表着一个巨大的风险，可能会减缓亚马逊的增长，这可能会转化为6%的增长率（导致Y10收入为7.647.23亿美元）。总而言之，我将假设均匀分布，最大为24%，最小为6%。结果显示在下面（这个模拟和下一个模拟已经执行了10,000次）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893dff753c8ca210759feb31b3966a5c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>2. Operating Margin</i>:</p><p><blockquote><i>2.营业利润率</i>:</blockquote></p><p> Currently, Amazon has a restated operating margin of 9.03% TTM (vs not restated EBIT margin of 6.83%). In my DCF, I assumed a target operating margin of 13.2%. While this represents my most likely scenario for the company, I cannot close my eyes to the fact that, even if the company is improving its margins, it is following a very slow climb. Below, I display the non-restated EBIT margin for the last 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>目前，亚马逊的重述营业利润率为 9.03% TTM（未重述息税前利润率为 6.83%）。在我的 DCF 中，我假设目标营业利润率为 13.2%。虽然这代表了我对公司最有可能的情况，但我不能对这样一个事实视而不见：即使公司正在提高利润率，它的增长也非常缓慢。下面，我显示了过去 5 年未经重述的息税前利润率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d66fcb05f4254b15de278f016121ffa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\"><span>Source:SeekingAlpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, as I stated at the beginning, Amazon is a disruptive company with the ability to do extraordinary things. For instance, AWS presents a current operating margin of 30% TTM and a revenue growth rate of 29.53% in 2020. A trend which is expected to continue, driven by improving outlook and with new partners joining the party. The last to join the party are Ferrari(NYSE:RACE)and Swisscom(OTCPK:SWZCF)who have chosen AWS as their preferred cloud partner.</p><p><blockquote>然而，正如我在开头所说，亚马逊是一家具有颠覆性的公司，有能力做非凡的事情。例如，AWS目前的营业利润率为30%，2020年收入增长率为29.53%。在前景改善和新伙伴加入该党的推动下，这一趋势预计将继续下去。最后加入这一行列的是法拉利（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RACE）和瑞士电信（OTCPK：SWZCF），它们选择 AWS 作为首选云合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020,according to Gartner, AWS generated revenue 2 times bigger than Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT). As stated by Gartner:</p><p><blockquote>根据 Gartner 的数据，2020 年 AWS 的收入是微软（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT）的两倍。正如Gartner所说：</blockquote></p><p> <i>The worldwide</i> <i>infrastructure as a service(IaaS) market grew 40.7% in 2020 to total $64.3 billion, up from $45.7 billion in 2019, according to Gartner, Inc. Amazon retained the No. 1 position in the IaaS market in 2020, followed by Microsoft, Alibaba, Google and Huawei... Amazon continued to lead the worldwide IaaS market with $26.2 billion of revenue in 2020 and 41% market share.</i> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac00a17cbbd930ad6464a63f6d4f98eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source:Gartner.com</span></p><p><blockquote><i>全球</i> <i>根据Gartner，Inc.的数据，基础设施即服务（IaaS）市场在2020年增长了40.7%，总额从2019年的457亿美元增长到643亿美元。亚马逊在2020年保持了IaaS市场的第一位置，其次是微软、阿里巴巴-SW、谷歌和华为……亚马逊在2020年以262亿美元的收入和41%的市场份额继续引领全球IaaS市场。</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Gartner.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, to account for my concerns and beliefs, I will assume a triangular distribution with the following limits: the likeliest target operating margin of 13.2%, a maximum of 18.4%, and a minimum of 8% (close to the current company's EBIT margin). The results are displayed below.</p><p><blockquote>最后，为了说明我的担忧和信念，我将假设一个具有以下限制的三角形分布：最有可能的目标营业利润率为13.2%，最大为18.4%，最小为8%（接近当前公司的息税前利润率）。结果显示如下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/054e2db392be500768de741516186013\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>3. Cost of Capital:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>3.资金成本：</i></blockquote></p><p> The last input of interest is the cost of capital. In doing my analysis, I estimated a cost of capital of 5.8% (with the current 10Y rate of 1.48 and an implied ERP of 4.54%). However, I may be wrong due to sector risk estimates or changes in the business mix (or both). To account for the possibility that I made some mistakes along the road, I will rely on a lognormal distribution with the most likely scenario of 5.8%. The results of the simulation are displayed below.</p><p><blockquote>利息的最后一个投入是资本成本。在进行分析时，我估计资本成本为 5.8%（当前 10 年利率为 1.48，隐含 ERP 为 4.54%）。然而，由于行业风险估计或业务组合的变化（或两者兼而有之），我可能是错误的。为了说明我在路上犯了一些错误的可能性，我将依赖于最有可能的情况为5.8%的对数正态分布。模拟结果如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d51740fa35eb9aedbc58c4c49d96eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By putting all of this together, the simulations return the following results.</p><p><blockquote>通过将所有这些放在一起，模拟返回以下结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139c89300706eab1e37dd1c992286d31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For completeness, I also display below the relative and cumulative frequency of the simulation.</p><p><blockquote>为了完整起见，我还在下面显示了模拟的相对频率和累积频率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af7a908e21b8678a775a3e1742161a7d\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"644\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By looking at the results, we can see that the 50th percentile or the median is equal to $3274, close to the expected DCF FV of $3328. While the algorithm-adjusted FV of $3576 is the 60th percentile in my simulations (note also the long right tail).</p><p><blockquote>通过查看结果，我们可以看到第 50 个百分位数或中位数等于 3274 美元，接近预期的 DCF FV 3328 美元。而算法调整后的 FV 为 3576 美元，是我模拟中的第 60 个百分位数（还要注意长长的右尾）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Finally, simulation results give us an interesting insight into a potential exit point. I believe that an interesting take profit point may be within the 80th percentile, which implies a potential upside of 24.89%. Why within the 80th percentile? I believe that, after reaching the $2.0 trillion company status, we will see the last climb of euphoria before investors start to take profits.</p><p><blockquote>最后，模拟结果让我们对潜在的退出点有了有趣的了解。我相信一个有趣的止盈点可能在第 80 个百分位内，这意味着潜在的上涨空间为 24.89%。为什么在第80个百分位以内？我相信，在达到 2.0 万亿美元的公司地位后，我们将看到投资者开始获利了结之前的最后一次兴奋。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Both the algorithm-adjusted fair value and the Monte Carlo simulation suggest and support the bullish rating. The results found suggest that the stock is currently undervalued and that the company has still more room to go. What may drive the price to go higher? Well, there are different factors that may drive it. One of those is for sure corporate news. For instance, the company may introduce new products or announce a stock split (For the latter, I think this is unlikely, at least not now). However, don't forget also the other side, the risks. There are many risks associated with being invested in the company, one of those is represented by antitrust and regulators.</p><p><blockquote>算法调整后的公允价值和蒙特卡罗模拟都建议并支持看涨评级。结果表明，该股目前被低估，该公司仍有更大的发展空间。什么可能会推动价格上涨？嗯，有不同的因素可能会驱动它。其中之一肯定是企业新闻。例如，公司可能会推出新产品或宣布股票分割（对于后者，我认为这不太可能，至少现在不会）。然而，不要忘记另一面，风险。投资该公司存在许多风险，其中之一就是反垄断和监管机构。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Undervalued With Potential Upside Of 25%<blockquote>亚马逊：被低估，潜在上涨空间为 25%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Undervalued With Potential Upside Of 25%<blockquote>亚马逊：被低估，潜在上涨空间为 25%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 18:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Amazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters.</li> <li>I initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share).</li> <li>The company's improving top line and bottom line performance (which is expected to continue) suggests that the stock is currently undervalued by 3.9%.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51ce52baed5afae04a384059297465d3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Daria Nipot/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是一家独特且不断发展的公司，它利用其颠覆性平台来颠覆它进入的任何新业务。</li><li>我对亚马逊给予看涨评级，公允价值为3576美元/股（当前价格为3443美元/股）。</li><li>该公司不断改善的营收和利润表现（预计将持续）表明该股目前被低估 3.9%。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Daria Nipot/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司概况</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), a $1.74 trillion company. This is the current market capitalization (as of 06/29/2021) of the company and this implies that it is currently 15.18% away from being a $2 trillion company, not bad no?</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN），一家市值 1.74 万亿美元的公司。这是该公司目前的市值（截至2021年6月29日），这意味着它目前距离成为一家2万亿美元的公司还有15.18%，不错吧？</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters. For example, when Amazon announced the acquisition of Whole Foods, Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Kroger(NYSE:KR), Target(NYSE:TGT)took a nice hit in market value. I believe that the company will be able to keep delivering strong top line growth and continued growth in margins, fueled not only by the company's current business expansion but also by entering into new markets and new businesses.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是一家独特且不断发展的公司，它利用其颠覆性平台来颠覆它进入的任何新业务。例如，当亚马逊宣布收购全食超市时，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）、克罗格（纽约证券交易所股票代码：KR）、塔吉特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TGT）的市值受到了不小的打击。我相信，公司将能够继续实现强劲的营收增长和利润率的持续增长，这不仅得益于公司当前的业务扩张，还得益于进入新市场和新业务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share). The FV is an algorithm-adjusted fair value (the algorithm takes into account fundamental and technical factors, such as DCF FV, momentum, etc.) and it implies that the stock is undervalued by 3.9%.</p><p><blockquote>我对亚马逊给予看涨评级，公允价值为3576美元/股（当前价格为3443美元/股）。FV 是算法调整后的公允价值（该算法考虑了基本面和技术因素，例如 DCF FV、动量等），这意味着该股票被低估了 3.9%。</blockquote></p><p> To compute the DCF FV, I used the trailing twelve-month numbers and I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. As with Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), I don't believe that Amazon's R&D is an operating expense, and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>为了计算 DCF FV，我使用了过去 12 个月的数字，并且还重述了财务数据，因为我将 R&D 费用资本化，摊销年限为 3 年。与苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）一样，我不认为亚马逊的研发是运营费用，因此我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb427d462596db1e1cb1ffc99acc90e4\" tg-width=\"571\" tg-height=\"240\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Capitalizing on R&D expenses, we have now a more clear picture of the company (i.e. the restated operating margin is now 9.03% TTM vs the non-restated operating margin is 6.63% TTM).</p><p><blockquote>利用R&D费用，我们现在对公司有了更清晰的了解（即重述的营业利润率现在为9.03% TTM，而非重述的营业利润率为6.63% TTM）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贴现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e215b21ca0b3be5a5e0e7b62e36fb5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In my DCF model, I assume a revenue growth for the Y1 of 21.2%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% and I assume a terminal year growth rate of 1.48% (or the current yield on 10Y Treasury). The decision of using the current and not expected yield is due to the willingness to remain market neutral (perhaps you can use Goldman Sachs expectations of 1.9%). The current assumptions lead to revenues of $1,253,844 million in Y10.</p><p><blockquote>在我的 DCF 模型中，我假设第一年的收入增长率为 21.2%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 15%，我假设最终年增长率为 1.48%（或 10 年期国债的当前收益率）。使用当前收益率而不是预期收益率的决定是由于愿意保持市场中立（也许你可以使用高盛1.9%的预期）。目前的假设导致 Y10 的收入为 12.538.44 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Along the road, I also assume an improving outlook for operating margins with the target operating margin of 13.2% (vs current restated operating margin of 9.03%). If the company will be able to meet this target, it will result in operating margins in Y10 of $163,097 million.</p><p><blockquote>在此过程中，我还假设营业利润率前景会有所改善，目标营业利润率为 13.2%（而当前重述营业利润率为 9.03%）。如果该公司能够实现这一目标，Y10 年的营业利润率将达到 1,630.97 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, in doing my estimates, I used a WACC of 5.75% and a sales to capital ratio (or how much the company is going to reinvest to keep its business growing) of 2.95.</p><p><blockquote>最后，在进行估计时，我使用了 5.75% 的 WACC 和 2.95 的销售资本比率（或公司将再投资多少以保持业务增长）。</blockquote></p><p> By putting it together, I obtain a DCF value of $3328/share.</p><p><blockquote>把它放在一起，我得到了3328美元/股的DCF价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monte Carlo Simulation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蒙特卡罗模拟</b></blockquote></p><p> Rather than showing you only my point estimates, which may be right but also may be wrong, let's use probability distributions for inputs. Simulations allow us to assess the impact of continuous risk (e.g., changes in operating margins). In particular, I would like to focus on what I consider the main inputs of interest to get a bigger picture of the risk in the company. Those inputs are:</p><p><blockquote>与其只向你展示我的点估计，这可能是对的，也可能是错的，让我们使用概率分布作为输入。模拟使我们能够评估持续风险的影响（例如，营业利润率的变化）。特别是，我想重点关注我认为感兴趣的主要输入，以更好地了解公司的风险。这些投入是：</blockquote></p><p> <i>1. Revenue Growth:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>1.收入增长：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In my DCF analysis, I assumed an expected CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% with lower rates going forward. This assumption lead to revenues in Y10 of $1,253,844 million. While it is a reasonable assumption, Amazon is full of surprises, and it may deliver a top line growth well above my expectations. In the latter, I see a possible scenario with a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 24%, resulting in Y10 revenues of $1,989,952 million. However, we all know that regulators represent a big risk for the company. According to WSJ sources, if the \"giant-tech bill\" will pass, the company may be forced to either split into two companies or spin off its private-label product businesses. This represents a big risk that may slow down Amazon's growth, which could translate into a growth rate of 6% (resulting in Y10 revenues of $764,723 million). To sum up, I will assume a uniform distribution with a maximum of 24% and a minimum of 6%. The results are displayed below (this simulation and the next one have been performed 10,000 times).</p><p><blockquote>在我的 DCF 分析中，我假设 Y2-Y5 的预期复合年增长率为 15%，未来利率将会下降。这一假设导致 Y10 的收入为 12.538.44 亿美元。虽然这是一个合理的假设，但亚马逊充满了惊喜，它可能会带来远远超出我预期的营收增长。在后者中，我看到了一个可能的情况，CAGR Y2-Y5为24%，导致Y10收入为19.899.52亿美元。然而，我们都知道监管机构对公司来说是一个很大的风险。据《华尔街日报》消息人士透露，如果“巨型科技法案”获得通过，该公司可能被迫拆分为两家公司或剥离其自有品牌产品业务。这代表着一个巨大的风险，可能会减缓亚马逊的增长，这可能会转化为6%的增长率（导致Y10收入为7.647.23亿美元）。总而言之，我将假设均匀分布，最大为24%，最小为6%。结果显示在下面（这个模拟和下一个模拟已经执行了10,000次）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893dff753c8ca210759feb31b3966a5c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>2. Operating Margin</i>:</p><p><blockquote><i>2.营业利润率</i>:</blockquote></p><p> Currently, Amazon has a restated operating margin of 9.03% TTM (vs not restated EBIT margin of 6.83%). In my DCF, I assumed a target operating margin of 13.2%. While this represents my most likely scenario for the company, I cannot close my eyes to the fact that, even if the company is improving its margins, it is following a very slow climb. Below, I display the non-restated EBIT margin for the last 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>目前，亚马逊的重述营业利润率为 9.03% TTM（未重述息税前利润率为 6.83%）。在我的 DCF 中，我假设目标营业利润率为 13.2%。虽然这代表了我对公司最有可能的情况，但我不能对这样一个事实视而不见：即使公司正在提高利润率，它的增长也非常缓慢。下面，我显示了过去 5 年未经重述的息税前利润率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d66fcb05f4254b15de278f016121ffa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\"><span>Source:SeekingAlpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, as I stated at the beginning, Amazon is a disruptive company with the ability to do extraordinary things. For instance, AWS presents a current operating margin of 30% TTM and a revenue growth rate of 29.53% in 2020. A trend which is expected to continue, driven by improving outlook and with new partners joining the party. The last to join the party are Ferrari(NYSE:RACE)and Swisscom(OTCPK:SWZCF)who have chosen AWS as their preferred cloud partner.</p><p><blockquote>然而，正如我在开头所说，亚马逊是一家具有颠覆性的公司，有能力做非凡的事情。例如，AWS目前的营业利润率为30%，2020年收入增长率为29.53%。在前景改善和新伙伴加入该党的推动下，这一趋势预计将继续下去。最后加入这一行列的是法拉利（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RACE）和瑞士电信（OTCPK：SWZCF），它们选择 AWS 作为首选云合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020,according to Gartner, AWS generated revenue 2 times bigger than Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT). As stated by Gartner:</p><p><blockquote>根据 Gartner 的数据，2020 年 AWS 的收入是微软（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT）的两倍。正如Gartner所说：</blockquote></p><p> <i>The worldwide</i> <i>infrastructure as a service(IaaS) market grew 40.7% in 2020 to total $64.3 billion, up from $45.7 billion in 2019, according to Gartner, Inc. Amazon retained the No. 1 position in the IaaS market in 2020, followed by Microsoft, Alibaba, Google and Huawei... Amazon continued to lead the worldwide IaaS market with $26.2 billion of revenue in 2020 and 41% market share.</i> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac00a17cbbd930ad6464a63f6d4f98eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source:Gartner.com</span></p><p><blockquote><i>全球</i> <i>根据Gartner，Inc.的数据，基础设施即服务（IaaS）市场在2020年增长了40.7%，总额从2019年的457亿美元增长到643亿美元。亚马逊在2020年保持了IaaS市场的第一位置，其次是微软、阿里巴巴-SW、谷歌和华为……亚马逊在2020年以262亿美元的收入和41%的市场份额继续引领全球IaaS市场。</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Gartner.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, to account for my concerns and beliefs, I will assume a triangular distribution with the following limits: the likeliest target operating margin of 13.2%, a maximum of 18.4%, and a minimum of 8% (close to the current company's EBIT margin). The results are displayed below.</p><p><blockquote>最后，为了说明我的担忧和信念，我将假设一个具有以下限制的三角形分布：最有可能的目标营业利润率为13.2%，最大为18.4%，最小为8%（接近当前公司的息税前利润率）。结果显示如下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/054e2db392be500768de741516186013\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>3. Cost of Capital:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>3.资金成本：</i></blockquote></p><p> The last input of interest is the cost of capital. In doing my analysis, I estimated a cost of capital of 5.8% (with the current 10Y rate of 1.48 and an implied ERP of 4.54%). However, I may be wrong due to sector risk estimates or changes in the business mix (or both). To account for the possibility that I made some mistakes along the road, I will rely on a lognormal distribution with the most likely scenario of 5.8%. The results of the simulation are displayed below.</p><p><blockquote>利息的最后一个投入是资本成本。在进行分析时，我估计资本成本为 5.8%（当前 10 年利率为 1.48，隐含 ERP 为 4.54%）。然而，由于行业风险估计或业务组合的变化（或两者兼而有之），我可能是错误的。为了说明我在路上犯了一些错误的可能性，我将依赖于最有可能的情况为5.8%的对数正态分布。模拟结果如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d51740fa35eb9aedbc58c4c49d96eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By putting all of this together, the simulations return the following results.</p><p><blockquote>通过将所有这些放在一起，模拟返回以下结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139c89300706eab1e37dd1c992286d31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For completeness, I also display below the relative and cumulative frequency of the simulation.</p><p><blockquote>为了完整起见，我还在下面显示了模拟的相对频率和累积频率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af7a908e21b8678a775a3e1742161a7d\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"644\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By looking at the results, we can see that the 50th percentile or the median is equal to $3274, close to the expected DCF FV of $3328. While the algorithm-adjusted FV of $3576 is the 60th percentile in my simulations (note also the long right tail).</p><p><blockquote>通过查看结果，我们可以看到第 50 个百分位数或中位数等于 3274 美元，接近预期的 DCF FV 3328 美元。而算法调整后的 FV 为 3576 美元，是我模拟中的第 60 个百分位数（还要注意长长的右尾）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Finally, simulation results give us an interesting insight into a potential exit point. I believe that an interesting take profit point may be within the 80th percentile, which implies a potential upside of 24.89%. Why within the 80th percentile? I believe that, after reaching the $2.0 trillion company status, we will see the last climb of euphoria before investors start to take profits.</p><p><blockquote>最后，模拟结果让我们对潜在的退出点有了有趣的了解。我相信一个有趣的止盈点可能在第 80 个百分位内，这意味着潜在的上涨空间为 24.89%。为什么在第80个百分位以内？我相信，在达到 2.0 万亿美元的公司地位后，我们将看到投资者开始获利了结之前的最后一次兴奋。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Both the algorithm-adjusted fair value and the Monte Carlo simulation suggest and support the bullish rating. The results found suggest that the stock is currently undervalued and that the company has still more room to go. What may drive the price to go higher? Well, there are different factors that may drive it. One of those is for sure corporate news. For instance, the company may introduce new products or announce a stock split (For the latter, I think this is unlikely, at least not now). However, don't forget also the other side, the risks. There are many risks associated with being invested in the company, one of those is represented by antitrust and regulators.</p><p><blockquote>算法调整后的公允价值和蒙特卡罗模拟都建议并支持看涨评级。结果表明，该股目前被低估，该公司仍有更大的发展空间。什么可能会推动价格上涨？嗯，有不同的因素可能会驱动它。其中之一肯定是企业新闻。例如，公司可能会推出新产品或宣布股票分割（对于后者，我认为这不太可能，至少现在不会）。然而，不要忘记另一面，风险。投资该公司存在许多风险，其中之一就是反垄断和监管机构。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437291-amazon-stock-amzn-undervalued-with-potential-upside-of-25-percent\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437291-amazon-stock-amzn-undervalued-with-potential-upside-of-25-percent","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113357649","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters.\nI initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share).\nThe company's improving top line and bottom line performance (which is expected to continue) suggests that the stock is currently undervalued by 3.9%.\n\nDaria Nipot/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nCompany Overview\nAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), a $1.74 trillion company. This is the current market capitalization (as of 06/29/2021) of the company and this implies that it is currently 15.18% away from being a $2 trillion company, not bad no?\nAmazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters. For example, when Amazon announced the acquisition of Whole Foods, Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Kroger(NYSE:KR), Target(NYSE:TGT)took a nice hit in market value. I believe that the company will be able to keep delivering strong top line growth and continued growth in margins, fueled not only by the company's current business expansion but also by entering into new markets and new businesses.\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share). The FV is an algorithm-adjusted fair value (the algorithm takes into account fundamental and technical factors, such as DCF FV, momentum, etc.) and it implies that the stock is undervalued by 3.9%.\nTo compute the DCF FV, I used the trailing twelve-month numbers and I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. As with Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), I don't believe that Amazon's R&D is an operating expense, and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nCapitalizing on R&D expenses, we have now a more clear picture of the company (i.e. the restated operating margin is now 9.03% TTM vs the non-restated operating margin is 6.63% TTM).\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIn my DCF model, I assume a revenue growth for the Y1 of 21.2%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% and I assume a terminal year growth rate of 1.48% (or the current yield on 10Y Treasury). The decision of using the current and not expected yield is due to the willingness to remain market neutral (perhaps you can use Goldman Sachs expectations of 1.9%). The current assumptions lead to revenues of $1,253,844 million in Y10.\nAlong the road, I also assume an improving outlook for operating margins with the target operating margin of 13.2% (vs current restated operating margin of 9.03%). If the company will be able to meet this target, it will result in operating margins in Y10 of $163,097 million.\nFinally, in doing my estimates, I used a WACC of 5.75% and a sales to capital ratio (or how much the company is going to reinvest to keep its business growing) of 2.95.\nBy putting it together, I obtain a DCF value of $3328/share.\nMonte Carlo Simulation\nRather than showing you only my point estimates, which may be right but also may be wrong, let's use probability distributions for inputs. Simulations allow us to assess the impact of continuous risk (e.g., changes in operating margins). In particular, I would like to focus on what I consider the main inputs of interest to get a bigger picture of the risk in the company. Those inputs are:\n1. Revenue Growth:\nIn my DCF analysis, I assumed an expected CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% with lower rates going forward. This assumption lead to revenues in Y10 of $1,253,844 million. While it is a reasonable assumption, Amazon is full of surprises, and it may deliver a top line growth well above my expectations. In the latter, I see a possible scenario with a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 24%, resulting in Y10 revenues of $1,989,952 million. However, we all know that regulators represent a big risk for the company. According to WSJ sources, if the \"giant-tech bill\" will pass, the company may be forced to either split into two companies or spin off its private-label product businesses. This represents a big risk that may slow down Amazon's growth, which could translate into a growth rate of 6% (resulting in Y10 revenues of $764,723 million). To sum up, I will assume a uniform distribution with a maximum of 24% and a minimum of 6%. The results are displayed below (this simulation and the next one have been performed 10,000 times).\nSource:Author's estimates\n2. Operating Margin:\nCurrently, Amazon has a restated operating margin of 9.03% TTM (vs not restated EBIT margin of 6.83%). In my DCF, I assumed a target operating margin of 13.2%. While this represents my most likely scenario for the company, I cannot close my eyes to the fact that, even if the company is improving its margins, it is following a very slow climb. Below, I display the non-restated EBIT margin for the last 5 years.\nSource:SeekingAlpha.com\nHowever, as I stated at the beginning, Amazon is a disruptive company with the ability to do extraordinary things. For instance, AWS presents a current operating margin of 30% TTM and a revenue growth rate of 29.53% in 2020. A trend which is expected to continue, driven by improving outlook and with new partners joining the party. The last to join the party are Ferrari(NYSE:RACE)and Swisscom(OTCPK:SWZCF)who have chosen AWS as their preferred cloud partner.\nIn 2020,according to Gartner, AWS generated revenue 2 times bigger than Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT). As stated by Gartner:\n\nThe worldwide \n infrastructure as a service(IaaS) market grew 40.7% in 2020 to total $64.3 billion, up from $45.7 billion in 2019, according to Gartner, Inc. Amazon retained the No. 1 position in the IaaS market in 2020, followed by Microsoft, Alibaba, Google and Huawei... Amazon continued to lead the worldwide IaaS market with $26.2 billion of revenue in 2020 and 41% market share.\n\nSource:Gartner.com\nFinally, to account for my concerns and beliefs, I will assume a triangular distribution with the following limits: the likeliest target operating margin of 13.2%, a maximum of 18.4%, and a minimum of 8% (close to the current company's EBIT margin). The results are displayed below.\nSource:Author's estimates\n3. Cost of Capital:\nThe last input of interest is the cost of capital. In doing my analysis, I estimated a cost of capital of 5.8% (with the current 10Y rate of 1.48 and an implied ERP of 4.54%). However, I may be wrong due to sector risk estimates or changes in the business mix (or both). To account for the possibility that I made some mistakes along the road, I will rely on a lognormal distribution with the most likely scenario of 5.8%. The results of the simulation are displayed below.\nSource:Author's estimates\nBy putting all of this together, the simulations return the following results.\nSource:Author's estimates\nFor completeness, I also display below the relative and cumulative frequency of the simulation.\nSource:Author's estimates\nBy looking at the results, we can see that the 50th percentile or the median is equal to $3274, close to the expected DCF FV of $3328. While the algorithm-adjusted FV of $3576 is the 60th percentile in my simulations (note also the long right tail).\nFinally, simulation results give us an interesting insight into a potential exit point. I believe that an interesting take profit point may be within the 80th percentile, which implies a potential upside of 24.89%. Why within the 80th percentile? I believe that, after reaching the $2.0 trillion company status, we will see the last climb of euphoria before investors start to take profits.\nFinal Thoughts\nBoth the algorithm-adjusted fair value and the Monte Carlo simulation suggest and support the bullish rating. The results found suggest that the stock is currently undervalued and that the company has still more room to go. What may drive the price to go higher? Well, there are different factors that may drive it. One of those is for sure corporate news. For instance, the company may introduce new products or announce a stock split (For the latter, I think this is unlikely, at least not now). However, don't forget also the other side, the risks. There are many risks associated with being invested in the company, one of those is represented by antitrust and regulators.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2256,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/149027431"}
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