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2021-06-29
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Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>
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Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Cloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.</li> <li>Cloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.</li> <li>Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7cd9332f245bbb2907015fd86c5ff20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Cloudflare是一款高性能CDN。其付费客户继续快速增长，并且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>Cloudflare的毛利率非常高，高达70%。</li><li>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>imaginima/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare（纽约证券交易所代码：NET）是内容交付网络（“CDN”）。随着世界继续快速数字化，对高质量和快速互联网网络的需求不断增加。为此，投资者很久以前就了解这些前景并将这种信念反映到Cloudflare的股价中或许也就不足为奇了。事实上，Cloudflare现在的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Cloudflare的增长率仍然居高不下且稳定。对Cloudflare感兴趣的投资者将不得不采取坚定的买入并持有策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Voting Machine vs Weighing Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投票机vs称重机</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare是一个内容交付网络（“CDN”）。它的使命是使互联网更安全、更快、更可靠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c97ad60d00f39022413a4453bb38d2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.</p><p><blockquote>去年这个时候，投资者对Fastly(FSLY)充满热情。许多人认为它是一家不会犯错的公司。今年，情况截然不同，如上图所示。Fastly已经半途而废，而Cloudflare现在是卫冕冠军。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在用脚投票决定快速退出，他们现在正在涌入Cloudflare。</blockquote></p><p> As a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:<i>many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一名价值投资者，我通常认为这种情况可能会再次恢复。以下是传奇投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的投资理念所基于的贺拉斯(Horace)的一句话：<i>许多现在倒下的人将会复活，许多现在被荣耀的人将会倒下。</i></blockquote></p><p> Having said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，对于投资者可能发表的每一句俏皮话，真正的投资者的前景在于做工作并试图辨别潜在的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is a High-Quality Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是一项优质业务</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的非GAAP毛利率不仅高得令人难以置信，而且非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161c2d74e08d4ccf531ab30182bd8a62\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，相比之下，Fastly截至2021年第一季度的这一比例为60.1%。从表面上看，这非常诱人，是高质量业务的典型指标。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in at<i>a negative 4%</i>. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，当我们展望Cloudflare的全年指引时，其非GAAP营业利润率预计将达到<i>负4%</i>.当然，这比2020年的负8%有了实质性的改善，并使Cloudflare非常接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a369e8d30ed6115c1e05ca0b8310f0a\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source: Long-Term Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：长期模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, to go from<i>negative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb</i>. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从<i>营业利润率从负4%到正+20%是一个非常陡峭的攀升</i>因此，投资者应谨慎行事，对本指南持保留态度。</blockquote></p><p> Moving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，其最新业绩显示Cloudflare以美元计算的净保留率为123%。这是一个重要指标，因为它不仅表明了公司的客户群是粘性的，而且提醒我们Cloudflare能够向其客户出售23%的服务。</blockquote></p><p> This insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:</p><p><blockquote>这一见解，加上Cloudflare的付费客户持续增加的事实，应该会让投资者相信Cloudflare的业务非常健康，因为其收入正在通过客户增加和价格上涨的混合而增加：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a4e8e1944ecc73a022a5710a3dc07ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率：强劲而稳定</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc3dff42f73ccfdfc3b2b4f9a0eb65a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **company guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算；**公司指引</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们可以在上面看到，Cloudflare继续引导投资者实现40%左右的复合年增长率——至少在短期内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，知道管理层有多保守，我怀疑Cloudflare将轻松击败这些目标，甚至可能在来年提高其指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们必须记住，我们仍在讨论一家可能在2021年底收入接近6亿美元的公司。换句话说，在公司收入低于10亿美元的情况下以40%左右的速度增长，并在收入高于10亿美元的情况下继续以40%左右的速度增长，这是一个完全不同的壮举。在某些时候，规模会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值——不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍。这意味着人们对Cloudflare的乐观情绪非常高。即使在SaaS的名字中，我也相信这是一个异常值。我关注了这个领域的许多公司，但我不知道有哪家公司的定价如此之高。</blockquote></p><p> The obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.</p><p><blockquote>这里明显的比较是Fastly，它的定价是远期销售额的18倍。但即使在网络安全公司中，像CrowdStrike(CRWD)这样以估值过高而闻名的行业的定价也是销售额的42倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare非常稳定，并且正在快速增长。它的估值并不便宜，是销售额的53倍，但同样很少有优质公司。有意在此建仓的投资者可以考虑逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我更喜欢坚持那些头发更多、估值更便宜的公司。投资愉快！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 20:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Cloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.</li> <li>Cloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.</li> <li>Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7cd9332f245bbb2907015fd86c5ff20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Cloudflare是一款高性能CDN。其付费客户继续快速增长，并且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>Cloudflare的毛利率非常高，高达70%。</li><li>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>imaginima/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare（纽约证券交易所代码：NET）是内容交付网络（“CDN”）。随着世界继续快速数字化，对高质量和快速互联网网络的需求不断增加。为此，投资者很久以前就了解这些前景并将这种信念反映到Cloudflare的股价中或许也就不足为奇了。事实上，Cloudflare现在的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Cloudflare的增长率仍然居高不下且稳定。对Cloudflare感兴趣的投资者将不得不采取坚定的买入并持有策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Voting Machine vs Weighing Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投票机vs称重机</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare是一个内容交付网络（“CDN”）。它的使命是使互联网更安全、更快、更可靠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c97ad60d00f39022413a4453bb38d2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.</p><p><blockquote>去年这个时候，投资者对Fastly(FSLY)充满热情。许多人认为它是一家不会犯错的公司。今年，情况截然不同，如上图所示。Fastly已经半途而废，而Cloudflare现在是卫冕冠军。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在用脚投票决定快速退出，他们现在正在涌入Cloudflare。</blockquote></p><p> As a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:<i>many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一名价值投资者，我通常认为这种情况可能会再次恢复。以下是传奇投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的投资理念所基于的贺拉斯(Horace)的一句话：<i>许多现在倒下的人将会复活，许多现在被荣耀的人将会倒下。</i></blockquote></p><p> Having said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，对于投资者可能发表的每一句俏皮话，真正的投资者的前景在于做工作并试图辨别潜在的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is a High-Quality Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是一项优质业务</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的非GAAP毛利率不仅高得令人难以置信，而且非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161c2d74e08d4ccf531ab30182bd8a62\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，相比之下，Fastly截至2021年第一季度的这一比例为60.1%。从表面上看，这非常诱人，是高质量业务的典型指标。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in at<i>a negative 4%</i>. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，当我们展望Cloudflare的全年指引时，其非GAAP营业利润率预计将达到<i>负4%</i>.当然，这比2020年的负8%有了实质性的改善，并使Cloudflare非常接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a369e8d30ed6115c1e05ca0b8310f0a\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source: Long-Term Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：长期模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, to go from<i>negative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb</i>. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从<i>营业利润率从负4%到正+20%是一个非常陡峭的攀升</i>因此，投资者应谨慎行事，对本指南持保留态度。</blockquote></p><p> Moving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，其最新业绩显示Cloudflare以美元计算的净保留率为123%。这是一个重要指标，因为它不仅表明了公司的客户群是粘性的，而且提醒我们Cloudflare能够向其客户出售23%的服务。</blockquote></p><p> This insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:</p><p><blockquote>这一见解，加上Cloudflare的付费客户持续增加的事实，应该会让投资者相信Cloudflare的业务非常健康，因为其收入正在通过客户增加和价格上涨的混合而增加：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a4e8e1944ecc73a022a5710a3dc07ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率：强劲而稳定</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc3dff42f73ccfdfc3b2b4f9a0eb65a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **company guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算；**公司指引</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们可以在上面看到，Cloudflare继续引导投资者实现40%左右的复合年增长率——至少在短期内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，知道管理层有多保守，我怀疑Cloudflare将轻松击败这些目标，甚至可能在来年提高其指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们必须记住，我们仍在讨论一家可能在2021年底收入接近6亿美元的公司。换句话说，在公司收入低于10亿美元的情况下以40%左右的速度增长，并在收入高于10亿美元的情况下继续以40%左右的速度增长，这是一个完全不同的壮举。在某些时候，规模会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值——不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍。这意味着人们对Cloudflare的乐观情绪非常高。即使在SaaS的名字中，我也相信这是一个异常值。我关注了这个领域的许多公司，但我不知道有哪家公司的定价如此之高。</blockquote></p><p> The obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.</p><p><blockquote>这里明显的比较是Fastly，它的定价是远期销售额的18倍。但即使在网络安全公司中，像CrowdStrike(CRWD)这样以估值过高而闻名的行业的定价也是销售额的42倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare非常稳定，并且正在快速增长。它的估值并不便宜，是销售额的53倍，但同样很少有优质公司。有意在此建仓的投资者可以考虑逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我更喜欢坚持那些头发更多、估值更便宜的公司。投资愉快！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436906-cloudflare-high-quality-business-but-not-cheap\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NET":"Cloudflare, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436906-cloudflare-high-quality-business-but-not-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170953229","content_text":"Summary\n\nCloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.\nCloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.\nCloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.\n\nimaginima/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nCloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.\nHaving said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.\nVoting Machine vs Weighing Machine\nCloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.\nData by YCharts\nThis time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.\nInvestors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.\nAs a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.\nHaving said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.\nCloudflare is a High-Quality Business\nCloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.\n\nAs a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.\nOn the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in ata negative 4%. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.\nSource: Long-Term Model\nNevertheless, to go fromnegative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.\nMoving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.\nThis insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:\n\nRevenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable\nSource: author's calculations; **company guidance\nNext, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.\nFurthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.\nNonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.\nValuation - Not Cheap\nCloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.\nThe obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.\nThe Bottom Line\nCloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.\nHaving said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NET":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1330,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/150297839"}
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