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2021-06-28

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Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":150937497,"tweetId":"150937497","gmtCreate":1624881312719,"gmtModify":1633947589105,"author":{"id":3570925230110099,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorId":3570925230110099,"authorIdStr":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":7,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>[Eye]&nbsp;[Eye]&nbsp; </body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>[Eye]&nbsp;[Eye]&nbsp; </body></html>","text":"[Eye] [Eye]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150937497","repostId":1103137872,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103137872","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624865492,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103137872?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 15:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103137872","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nStarbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.\nThe company","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Starbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.</li> <li>The company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth post the pandemic.</li> <li>Even if I assume an optimistic $4 earnings per share number next year, valuations look high, too high to see great appeal here.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860ea0c3c4fcf2d5047e8c0a528096df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1021\">mysondanube/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>星巴克仍然是全球领先的全球咖啡特许经营店。</li><li>该公司受到了疫情的沉重打击，但该公司继续开设商店，以推动疫情后的进一步增长。</li><li>即使我假设明年每股收益为4美元，估值看起来也很高，太高了，看不到巨大的吸引力。</li></ul>mysondanube/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Starbucks (SBUX)&nbsp;has been quite resilient, at least its shares, as the business has done quite well despite very challenging operating conditions. Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.<blockquote>星巴克(SBUX)至少其股价表现相当有弹性，因为尽管经营条件非常具有挑战性，但该业务仍表现良好。这家领先咖啡公司的股价在疫情爆发前达到近100美元的峰值，在最初走低后，股价出现了非常稳定的复苏，目前交易价格为每股113美元，仅比近期和历史高点上涨5%。</blockquote> While 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.<blockquote>虽然2021年的盈利能力将与2019年持平，增长也以令人信服的方式回归，但我仍然认为，尽管特许经营的质量无可争议，但估值太高，看不到任何吸引力。</blockquote> Pandemic - A Hit, And Savior<blockquote>流行病——大受欢迎，也是救世主</blockquote> Starbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.<blockquote>星巴克很早就认识到了疫情的影响，因为它在中国拥有规模庞大的业务，而且由于疫情比美国和欧洲早几个月爆发，因此很早就感受到了影响。</blockquote> Starbucks's second quarter fiscal&nbsp;results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.<blockquote>星巴克第二季度财报（相当于2020年第一季度）销售额下降5%。第三季度业绩显示了疫情的真正影响，销售额下降了38%，因为再多的成本控制也无法维持盈利能力，因为该公司在非常具有挑战性的情况下出现了相当大但同时非常可控的亏损。当时的条件。</blockquote> On the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.<blockquote>去年许多西方国家夏季重新开业后，收入大幅复苏，本财年最后一个季度仅下降了8%。在惨淡的第二季度业绩之后，全年收入下降了11%，至192亿美元，但盈利遭受的打击要大得多，营业利润下降了60%以上，至略高于15亿美元。</blockquote> In fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.<blockquote>事实上，几乎所有收入的绝对下降都转化为对营业收入线的一对一影响，包括重组成本上升、折旧费用稳定或略有增加，以及在许多修改和安全措施中商店费用略有增加。</blockquote> Net debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.<blockquote>截至本财年末，净债务为115亿美元。该公司在2019财年公布的调整后EBITDA约为60亿美元，但EBITDA数字远接近35亿美元。</blockquote> By the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.<blockquote>到去年10月公布这些业绩时，股价已经反弹至80多岁，这既转化为基于调整后每股1.17美元利润的高市盈率，也转化为调整后每股2.83美元的高市盈率。即使根据2019年的收益，股价也是30倍。</blockquote> A Big Recovery<blockquote>大复苏</blockquote> At the start of 2021 the company&nbsp;posted&nbsp;first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.<blockquote>2021年初，该公司公布了本财年第一季度业绩，由于该公司尚未克服疫情的影响，销售额下降了6%以上。该公司重申了全年指引，要求销售额中值为285亿美元，每股收益中值为2.80美元，尽管本日历年有53周，这使得指引假设这一事实增加了10美分。</blockquote> The second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.<blockquote>第二季度业绩显示收入增长8%，随着西方经济体逐渐重新开放，这相当令人欣慰。此外，这并不是一个容易比较的情况，因为2020年第二季度的第二季度收入仅下降了5%，因此我们实际上看到了与2019年季度相比的增长。在稳健业绩的支持下，该公司将全年销售指引上调至289亿美元的中点。此外，盈利指引的中点已上调15美分，至每股2.95美元。</blockquote> Net debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.<blockquote>在经历了今年前两个季度相对疲软之后，净债务已降至约100亿美元。今年净利润约为35亿美元，在加上约15亿美元的折旧费用以及数亿美元的利息和税收后，EBITDA应该会达到或超过2019年60亿美元的EBITDA数字。从这个意义上说，杠杆是非常适中的，当然也没什么大不了的。</blockquote> Based on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.<blockquote>根据目前每股113美元的股价计算，估值约为今年市盈率的38倍。然而，下半年的市盈率约为每股2美元，这可能意味着明年每股收益有可能跃升至4美元。这种盈利能力将预期市盈率降低至28倍。基于这个数字，倍数仍然很高，因为我意识到这可能需要一年的时间才能实现。</blockquote> I guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.<blockquote>我猜上述原因很可能是潘兴广场的阿克曼先生今年早些时候抛售股票的考虑因素。虽然今年每股收益3美元的数字是一致的，而且如果疫情消退，明年每股收益将达到4美元，但我看不到真正的触发因素。</blockquote> Based on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.<blockquote>基于这样的盈利能力，我认为这里的估值肯定看起来很满，太满了，我看不到吸引力，尽管我对这个非常高质量的特许经营权的质量和长期潜力毫不怀疑。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStarbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-28 15:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Starbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.</li> <li>The company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth post the pandemic.</li> <li>Even if I assume an optimistic $4 earnings per share number next year, valuations look high, too high to see great appeal here.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860ea0c3c4fcf2d5047e8c0a528096df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1021\">mysondanube/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>星巴克仍然是全球领先的全球咖啡特许经营店。</li><li>该公司受到了疫情的沉重打击，但该公司继续开设商店，以推动疫情后的进一步增长。</li><li>即使我假设明年每股收益为4美元，估值看起来也很高，太高了，看不到巨大的吸引力。</li></ul>mysondanube/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Starbucks (SBUX)&nbsp;has been quite resilient, at least its shares, as the business has done quite well despite very challenging operating conditions. Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.<blockquote>星巴克(SBUX)至少其股价表现相当有弹性，因为尽管经营条件非常具有挑战性，但该业务仍表现良好。这家领先咖啡公司的股价在疫情爆发前达到近100美元的峰值，在最初走低后，股价出现了非常稳定的复苏，目前交易价格为每股113美元，仅比近期和历史高点上涨5%。</blockquote> While 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.<blockquote>虽然2021年的盈利能力将与2019年持平，增长也以令人信服的方式回归，但我仍然认为，尽管特许经营的质量无可争议，但估值太高，看不到任何吸引力。</blockquote> Pandemic - A Hit, And Savior<blockquote>流行病——大受欢迎，也是救世主</blockquote> Starbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.<blockquote>星巴克很早就认识到了疫情的影响，因为它在中国拥有规模庞大的业务，而且由于疫情比美国和欧洲早几个月爆发，因此很早就感受到了影响。</blockquote> Starbucks's second quarter fiscal&nbsp;results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.<blockquote>星巴克第二季度财报（相当于2020年第一季度）销售额下降5%。第三季度业绩显示了疫情的真正影响，销售额下降了38%，因为再多的成本控制也无法维持盈利能力，因为该公司在非常具有挑战性的情况下出现了相当大但同时非常可控的亏损。当时的条件。</blockquote> On the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.<blockquote>去年许多西方国家夏季重新开业后，收入大幅复苏，本财年最后一个季度仅下降了8%。在惨淡的第二季度业绩之后，全年收入下降了11%，至192亿美元，但盈利遭受的打击要大得多，营业利润下降了60%以上，至略高于15亿美元。</blockquote> In fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.<blockquote>事实上，几乎所有收入的绝对下降都转化为对营业收入线的一对一影响，包括重组成本上升、折旧费用稳定或略有增加，以及在许多修改和安全措施中商店费用略有增加。</blockquote> Net debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.<blockquote>截至本财年末，净债务为115亿美元。该公司在2019财年公布的调整后EBITDA约为60亿美元，但EBITDA数字远接近35亿美元。</blockquote> By the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.<blockquote>到去年10月公布这些业绩时，股价已经反弹至80多岁，这既转化为基于调整后每股1.17美元利润的高市盈率，也转化为调整后每股2.83美元的高市盈率。即使根据2019年的收益，股价也是30倍。</blockquote> A Big Recovery<blockquote>大复苏</blockquote> At the start of 2021 the company&nbsp;posted&nbsp;first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.<blockquote>2021年初，该公司公布了本财年第一季度业绩，由于该公司尚未克服疫情的影响，销售额下降了6%以上。该公司重申了全年指引，要求销售额中值为285亿美元，每股收益中值为2.80美元，尽管本日历年有53周，这使得指引假设这一事实增加了10美分。</blockquote> The second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.<blockquote>第二季度业绩显示收入增长8%，随着西方经济体逐渐重新开放，这相当令人欣慰。此外，这并不是一个容易比较的情况，因为2020年第二季度的第二季度收入仅下降了5%，因此我们实际上看到了与2019年季度相比的增长。在稳健业绩的支持下，该公司将全年销售指引上调至289亿美元的中点。此外，盈利指引的中点已上调15美分，至每股2.95美元。</blockquote> Net debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.<blockquote>在经历了今年前两个季度相对疲软之后，净债务已降至约100亿美元。今年净利润约为35亿美元，在加上约15亿美元的折旧费用以及数亿美元的利息和税收后，EBITDA应该会达到或超过2019年60亿美元的EBITDA数字。从这个意义上说，杠杆是非常适中的，当然也没什么大不了的。</blockquote> Based on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.<blockquote>根据目前每股113美元的股价计算，估值约为今年市盈率的38倍。然而，下半年的市盈率约为每股2美元，这可能意味着明年每股收益有可能跃升至4美元。这种盈利能力将预期市盈率降低至28倍。基于这个数字，倍数仍然很高，因为我意识到这可能需要一年的时间才能实现。</blockquote> I guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.<blockquote>我猜上述原因很可能是潘兴广场的阿克曼先生今年早些时候抛售股票的考虑因素。虽然今年每股收益3美元的数字是一致的，而且如果疫情消退，明年每股收益将达到4美元，但我看不到真正的触发因素。</blockquote> Based on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.<blockquote>基于这样的盈利能力，我认为这里的估值肯定看起来很满，太满了，我看不到吸引力，尽管我对这个非常高质量的特许经营权的质量和长期潜力毫不怀疑。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436869-starbucks-too-hot-to-handle\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436869-starbucks-too-hot-to-handle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103137872","content_text":"Summary\n\nStarbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.\nThe company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth post the pandemic.\nEven if I assume an optimistic $4 earnings per share number next year, valuations look high, too high to see great appeal here.\n\nmysondanube/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nStarbucks (SBUX) has been quite resilient, at least its shares, as the business has done quite well despite very challenging operating conditions. Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.\nWhile 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.\nPandemic - A Hit, And Savior\nStarbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.\nStarbucks's second quarter fiscal results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.\nOn the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.\nIn fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.\nNet debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.\nBy the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.\nA Big Recovery\nAt the start of 2021 the company posted first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.\nThe second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.\nNet debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.\nBased on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.\nI guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.\nBased on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SBUX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1450,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/150937497"}